Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
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These pages contain the complete rough draft manuscript of the new book
Generational Dynamics for Historians,
written by John J. Xenakis.
This text is fully copyrighted. You may copy or print out this
material for your own use, but not for distribution to others.
Comments are invited. Send them to mailto:comments@generationaldynamics.com. |
This table shows, in each case, the date of the climax of the crisis war, and the date and number of years to the beginning of the next crisis war. Thus, this is a table of crisis war lengths, mid-cycle lengths and total seculum lengths.
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The average mid-cycle length is 67 years. The average saeculum length (beginning of one crisis war to beginning of next) is 79 years.
There are a few mid-cycle periods less than 50 years, all in ancient and medieval times. The minimum was 42 years. More research is needed to identify why such periods occur. My theory is that they're all due to unexpected invasions or from the merging of two regions and corresponding timelines. For example, if you take the Byzantine Empire, centered in Constantinople, a central crossing point surrounded by Persia, Russia, Europe and Arabia, then it's reasonable to expect that not everyone followed the same crisis war schedule.
This is an honest list, in the sense that I identified crisis wars using the criteria that I've described. However, there were some cases when I really needed more information from other sources, and in those cases I sometimes cherry-picked to get the list completed. I would guess that there are probably four or five errors in this table, but they can all be fixed with more information. At any rate, there's a good chance that any errors will cancel each other out in determining distribution of mid-cycle lengths.
---Length in years---
Crisis War, Beginning, Climax War Mid-cycle Total
Period
------------------------------ --- --------- -----
America
King Philip's War 1675 1678 3 97 100
Revolutionary War 1775 1782 7 79 86
Civil War 1861 1865 4 76 80
WW II 1941 1945 4
England
Norman conquest 1064 1066 2 69 71
Civil war 1135 1154 19 50 69
War: Normandy 1204 1215 11 61 72
Civil war / Wales 1276 1284 8 54 62
Hund Yrs War begin 1338 1346 8 109 117
War of the Roses 1455 1485 30 74 104
Armada 1559 1588 29 50 79
Civil War 1638 1650 12 51 63
War Spanish Succ 1701 1714 13 79 92
French Rev / Napol 1793 1814 21 51 72
Franco-Prussian 1865 1870 5 68 73
WW II 1938 1945 7
Normandy / France
Conquer England 1064 1066 2 58 60
Louis VI 1124 1135 11 47 58
3rd Cru / Civil w 1182 1204 22 66 88
Louis' 2nd crusade 1270 1285 15 53 68
Hund Yrs War begin 1338 1346 8 69 77
Hund Yr War redress 1415 1430 15 45 60
Unification France 1475 1480 5 82 87
St. Bartholomew 1562 1572 10 63 73
30 Years War 1635 1648 13 53 66
War Spanish Succ 1701 1714 13 75 88
French Rev / Napol 1789 1814 25 51 76
Franco-Prussian 1865 1870 5 68 73
WW II 1938 1945 7
Germany
Peace at Augsburg 1540 1555 15 63 78
30 Years War 1618 1648? 30 53 83
War Spanish Succ 1701 1714 13 79 92
French Rev / Napol 1793 1814 21 51 72
Franco-Prussian 1865 1870 5 68 73
WW II 1938 1945 7
Spain
Muslim conquest 711 715 4 62 66
Charlemagne invades 777 801 24 51 75
Muhammad v Xians 852 861 9 101 110
al Mustansir 962 970 8 57 65
End Umayyad caliph. 1027 1031 4 49 53
Annex Moorish Spain 1080 1086 6 58 64
Almohades invasion 1144 1150 6 45 51
Alfonso reconquest 1195 1212 17 100 117
Repel Muslims 1312 1340 28 51 79
Xians vs Jews 1391 1420 29 59 88
Inquisition/Reconq 1479 1492 13 68 81
Armada battle 1560 1588 28 52 80
Revolt in Catalonia 1640 1659 19 42 61
War of Span. Succ. 1701 1714 13 79 92
French Rev / Napol. 1793 1814 21 54 75
Spanish Republic 1868 1874 6 62 68
Spanish Civil War 1936 1939 3
Japan
Meiji Restoration 1852 1868 16 73 89
WW II 1941 1945 4
Ancient Greece
Persian Wars -507 -490 17 59 76
Peloponnesian War -431 -404 27 47 74
Macedonian conquest -357 -338 19
Ancient Palestine
King Herod Terror - -4 - 69 -
Jerusalem Massacre 66 71 5 42 47
Parthian War 113
Ancient Mecca
Pagan wars 592? - 64 64
Muslim civil war 656 665? 9
Ancient Rome
Second Punic War -218 -201 17 52 69
Third Punic War -149 -146 3 55 58
Social/Civil War -91 -82 9 46 55
War with Egypt -36 -30 6 92 98
War with Christians 63 71 8 42 50
Parthian War 113 117 4 76 80
Severan Wars 193 211 18 113 131
Empire reunited 324 337 13 69 82
Rome sacked 406 410 4 117 121
Byzantine War 527
Byzantine Empire
First Persian War 527 531 4 91 95
Defeat of Persians 622 630 8 65 73
Revolt/Anarchy 695 715 20 63 83
Expel Muslims 778 779 1 81 82
Constantinople att 860 863 3 57 60
Russian Armada 920 941 21 55 76
Annihilate Bulgaria 996 1014 18 57 75
Revolt v throne 1071 1081 10 108 118
Crusades/Constantin 1189 1204 15 55 70
Reconquest 1259 1261 2 80 82
Civil War 1341 1347 6 75 81
Ottoman conquest 1422 1453 31
Ottoman Empire
Constantinople fall 1453 - 59 -
Conquer Syria/Egypt 1512 1520 8 73 81
War with Habsburgs 1593 1606 13 77 90
War w/Holy League 1683 1699 16 69 85
War with Russia 1768 1774 6 79 85
Crimean War 1853 1856 3 52 55
Destruction 1908 1922 14
Egypt
Fatimid dynasty 969 - 54 -
Mirdasid dyn/Syria 1023 1023 0 56 56
Seljuk Tutush reign 1079 1095? 16 79 95
Saladin's reunifica 1174 1185 11 65 76
Malmuk empire 1250 1261 11 86 97
Black Death 1347 1349 2 51 53
Timur-I Lang invade 1400 1401 1 111 112
Ottoman conquest 1512 1520 8 66 74
Revolt ag. Ottomans 1586 1609 23 102 125
Civil War 1711 1711 0 75 75
Muhammad Ali 1786 1811 25 65 90
Rev + English occup 1876 1882 6 66 72
Egyptian Revolution 1948 1954 6
Russia
Defeat of Tartars 1360 1380 20 82 102
Annex Novgorod 1462 1485 23 72 95
Livonian War 1557 1582 25 67 92
Peasant rebellions 1649 1670 21 92 113
Ottoman/Pugachev 1762 1783 21 70 91
Crimean/Emancipate 1853 1861 8 54 62
Bolshevik Revol 1915 1928 13 65 78
Soviet collapse 1993 1993 -
(Saudi) Arabia
Wahhabi state 1745 - 55 -
War with Ottomans 1800 1818 18 84 102
Ibn Saud conquest 1902 1925 23
Morocco
Rif War 1921 1927 7
Algeria
Rebel v Ottomans 1803 1808 6 52 58
Awlad Sidi Shaykh 1864 1883 19 71 90
War - independence 1954 1962 9
Iran
Safavid dynasty est 1501 1524 23 54 77
War with Ottomans 1578 1590 12 58 70
Afghan/Jew persecut 1648 1662 14 60 74
Afghan/Russia wars 1722 1736 14 68 82
War with Russia 1804 1813 9 93 102
Constitutional Rev 1906 1909 3 71 74
Iran/Iraq War 1980 1989 9
Iraq:
Ottoman Destruction 1908 1922 14 58 72
Iran/Iraq War 1980 1989 9
Vietnam
French Indochina 1885 1895 10 70 80
Indochina War 1965 1980 15
China
White Lotus Rebel 1795 1805 10 46 56
Taiping Rebellion 1851 1864 13 68 81
Mao/Chiang civl war 1932 1949 17
Mexico
Mexican-Amer War 1846 1848 2 63 65
Mexican Revolution 1911 1924 13
Philippines
Civil wars 1755 1762 7 58 58
Civil war 1820 1823 3 73 76
Philippine revolut 1896 1898 2 43 45
World War II 1941 1945 4