Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 13-Dec-2017
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
2 |
Tensions over Russia's Crimea annexation and Greece's financial crisis have simmered down, but tensions in the Balkans are still high |
|
Mideast |
3 |
Ongoing wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen appear limitless, and tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran could explode at any time |
|
Russia Caucasus |
2 |
Anti-Muslim and ethnic xenophobia, as well as anti-Semitism, are rising in Russia, with jihadists now returning from Syria |
|
Kashmir |
3 |
India/Pakistan tensions in Kashmir are the worst since 2003 |
|
China |
3 |
China is annexing other nations' territories in the South China Sea, and threatening a border war with India |
|
North Korea |
3 |
North Korea's development of nuclear weapons and international ballistic missiles is setting an inevitable conflict with the US in motion |
|
Financial |
3 |
Stock market p/e ratio above 24 with increased volatility, a historically high value, indicating a large bubble. |
|
Swine/Bird flu/Ebola |
1 |
Previous pandemic threats have been brought under control |
Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 19-Oct-2014
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
3 |
Russia's Crimea annexation and Greece's financial crisis have revived WW II tensions |
|
Mideast |
4 |
Ongoing wars in Syria, Iraq and Yemen appear limitless and likely to expand into regional war in time |
|
Russia Caucasus |
3 |
Anti-Muslim and ethnic xenophobia, as well as anti-Semitism, are rising in Russia |
|
Kashmir |
2 |
India/Pakistan tensions in Kashmir are the worst since 2003 |
|
China |
3 |
China is annexing other nations' territories in the South China Sea |
|
North Korea |
2 |
North Korea under Kim Jong-un seems about as irrational and unstable as ever |
|
Financial |
3 |
Stock market p/e ratio above 19 with increased volatility, and lower growth in Europe and China |
|
Swine/Bird flu/Ebola |
4 |
The Ebola epidemic in West Africa and will, in time, spread to war zones and megacities around the world, triggering further instability and war. |
| Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 1-Jan-2013
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
1 |
Rising xenophobia, but no overt national hostilities yet |
|
Arab Israeli |
3 |
Syrian war may expand into a Sunni/Shia sectarian war throughout the region, even though the Arab Spring seems to be settling down |
|
Russia Caucasus |
2 |
Anti-Muslim and ethnic xenophobia, as well as anti-Semitism, are rising rapidly in Russia |
|
Kashmir |
2 |
Violence between Sunni Islamists in Pakistan versus Shia Muslims is growing, along with India-Pakistan tensions, especially after Mumbai attack |
|
China |
3 |
China is becoming extremely belligerent with its neighbors |
|
North Korea |
2 |
North Korea seems clearly to be mobilizing for war against South Korea |
|
Financial |
3 |
The stock market is still way in bubble territory, real estate is still crashing, global finances in Europe and Asia are growing; a full-scale panic could occur at any time |
|
Swine/Bird flu |
2 |
An H1N1 swine flu pandemic is still a real possibility according to the World Health Organization (WHO) |
| Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 12-Feb-2011
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
1 |
Rising xenophobia, but no overt national hostilities yet |
|
Arab Israeli |
3 |
The Tunisia revolution and Egypt uprising are threatening to send the region spiraling out of control |
|
Russia Caucasus |
2 |
Anti-Muslim and ethnic xenophobia, as well as anti-Semitism, are rising rapidly in Russia |
|
Kashmir |
2 |
Violence between Sunni Islamists in Pakistan versus Shia Muslims is growing, along with India-Pakistan tensions, especially after Mumbai attack |
|
China |
2 |
China is becoming extremely belligerent with its neighbors |
|
North Korea |
3 |
North Korea seems clearly to be mobilizing for war against South Korea |
|
Financial |
3 |
The stock market is still way in bubble territory, real estate is still crashing, global finances in Europe and Asia are growing; a full-scale panic could occur at any time |
|
Swine/Bird flu |
2 |
An H1N1 swine flu pandemic is still a real possibility according to the World Health Organization (WHO) |
| Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 1-Jan-2011
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
1 |
Rising xenophobia, but no overt national hostilities yet |
|
Arab Israeli |
2 |
The breakdown of the peace process has not sent this region spiraling out of control |
|
Russia Caucasus |
2 |
Anti-Muslim and ethnic xenophobia, as well as anti-Semitism, are rising rapidly in Russia |
|
Kashmir |
2 |
Violence between Sunni Islamists in Pakistan versus Shia Muslims is growing, along with India-Pakistan tensions, especially after Mumbai attack |
|
China |
2 |
China is becoming extremely belligerent with its neighbors |
|
North Korea |
3 |
North Korea seems clearly to be mobilizing for war against South Korea |
|
Financial |
3 |
The stock market is still way in bubble territory, real estate is still crashing, global finances in Europe and Asia are growing; a full-scale panic could occur at any time |
|
Swine/Bird flu |
2 |
An H1N1 swine flu pandemic is still a real possibility according to the World Health Organization (WHO) |
| Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 11-Aug-2008
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
1 |
Rising nationalism and ethnic tensions, but no overt national hostilities yet |
|
Arab Israeli |
3 |
Hamas election victory, loss of Ariel Sharon, rising influence of Iran, now fueled by Danish cartoon contoversy, could soon send this region spiraling out of control |
|
Russia Caucasus |
3 |
Russia's invasion of Georgia is extremely destabilizing. |
|
Kashmir |
3 |
The détente between Pakistan's Musharaff and India's Singh is in danger of unraveling, because of Pakistan's instability. |
|
China |
2 |
China is unraveling internally and is mobilizing for eventual war with US and Japan over Taiwan, as Taiwanese opinion shifts towards independence |
|
North Korea |
2 |
Kim Jong-il mobilizing for war at any time against South Korea and Japan, but will wait for China |
|
Financial |
3 |
Exponentially increasing public debt and the end of a corporate earnings streak make a financial crisis likely soon. |
|
Swine/Bird flu |
3 |
Mutations have allowed virus to spread more efficiently from Asia to Europe, the Mideast and Africa. A human pandemic is a possibility, though not a certainty. |
| Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 6-Nov-2007
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
1 |
Rising nationalism and ethnic tensions, but no overt national hostilities yet |
|
Arab Israeli |
3 |
Hamas election victory, loss of Ariel Sharon, rising influence of Iran, now fueled by Danish cartoon contoversy, could soon send this region spiraling out of control |
|
Russia Caucasus |
2 |
Simmering tensions remain, but Beslan massacre did not provoke retaliation, and Putin's hand is remaining steady. |
|
Kashmir |
3 |
The détente between Pakistan's Musharaff and India's Singh is in danger of unraveling, because of Pakistan's instability. |
|
China |
2 |
China is unraveling internally and is mobilizing for eventual war with US and Japan over Taiwan, as Taiwanese opinion shifts towards independence |
|
North Korea |
2 |
Kim Jong-il mobilizing for war at any time against South Korea and Japan, but will wait for China |
|
Financial |
3 |
Exponentially increasing public debt and the end of a corporate earnings streak make a financial crisis likely soon. |
|
Bird flu |
3 |
Mutations have allowed virus to spread more efficiently from Asia to Europe, the Mideast and Africa. A human pandemic is a possibility, though not a certainty. |
| Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 9-Feb-2006
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
1 |
Rising nationalism and ethnic tensions, but no overt national hostilities yet |
|
Arab Israeli |
3 |
Hamas election victory, loss of Ariel Sharon, rising influence of Iran, now fueled by Danish cartoon contoversy, could soon send this region spiraling out of control |
|
Russia Caucasus |
2 |
Simmering tensions remain, but Beslan massacre did not provoke retaliation, and Putin's hand is remaining steady. |
|
Kashmir |
2 |
Détente between Pakistan's Musharaff and India's Singh has significantly eased tensions, but Pakistan is becoming increasingly restive. |
|
China |
2 |
China is unraveling internally and is mobilizing for eventual war with US and Japan over Taiwan, as Taiwanese opinion shifts towards independence |
|
North Korea |
2 |
Kim Jong-il mobilizing for war at any time against South Korea and Japan, but will wait for China |
|
Financial |
3 |
Exponentially increasing public debt and the end of a corporate earnings streak make a financial crisis likely soon. |
|
Bird flu |
3 |
Mutations have allowed virus to spread more efficiently from Asia to Europe, the Mideast and Africa. A human pandemic is a possibility, though not a certainty. |
| Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 30-May-2005
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
1 |
Rising nationalism and ethnic tensions, but no overt national hostilities yet |
|
Arab Israeli |
2 |
Détente between Sharon and Abbas has eased tensions, but Hizbollah, Hamas, Syria and Iran are preparing for war |
|
Russia Caucasus |
2 |
Simmering tensions after Beslan massacre and Ukraine election cools as Putin becomes less overtly belligerent |
|
Kashmir |
1 |
Détente between Pakistan's Musharaff and India's Singh has significantly eased tensions |
|
China |
2 |
China is unraveling internally and is mobilizing for eventual war with US and Japan over Taiwan, as Taiwanese opinion shifts towards independence |
|
North Korea |
3 |
Kim Jong-il mobilizing for war at any time against South Korea and Japan |
|
Financial |
3 |
Recent losses in highly leveraged hedge funds are leading to a shakeout that may cause market meltdown |
|
Bird flu |
3 |
World Health Organization warns that pandemic might be imminent |
| Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
Conflict risk level by region/type for next six months
As of: 10-Oct-2004
|
|---|
|
W. Europe |
1 |
Rising tensions, but no overt national hostilities yet |
|
Arab Israeli |
2 |
Arafat's illness is stirring Palestinian strife while Sharon's Gaza withdrawal plan is angering Israelis |
|
Russia Caucasus |
3 |
Simmering tensions after Beslan massacre and Ukraine election cools as Putin becomes less overtly belligerent |
|
Kashmir |
2 |
Détente between Pakistan's Musharaff and India's Singh is easing tensions |
|
China |
2 |
China is unraveling internally and is mobilizing for eventual war with US and Japan over Taiwan, as Taiwanese opinion shifts towards independence |
|
North Korea |
2 |
Kim Jong-il is becoming increasingly belligerent, preparing for eventual takeover of South Korea under his control |
|
Financial |
1 |
Unemployment remains high, stocks are rising as the election approaches |
|
Bird flu |
2 |
WHO is downplaying fear of immediate pandemic, but recommends preparation |
| Key:
1=Low risk
2=Med
3=High
4=Active
| |
|---|
