Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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Stock Market

Latest Dow Jones Industrial Average

Will stocks rise or fall in 2003?

I've been listening to end-of-year economic forecasts by stock analysts on TV. There seem to be two groups of forecasts:

• Those who believe that once we do our quickie, no-pain, one-to-two-week war in Iraq, the stock market will rebound to its 1999 levels, up above 11,000;
• Those who believe that the stock market will be steady, in the 8000s, through the end of 2003.

If technological and economic forecasting means anything at all (and it does), then the first of these forecasts doesn't have a chance of happening.

The second forecast may come true, in the sense that the forecasted crash to below 6000 (Click here for forecast) may wait a year or two.

My guess: Something will go wrong in the war against Iraq or the war against terror, something that will expose a new vulnerability. That will have two effects: The DJIA will fall, and public resolve to pursue the war against terror will increase. Even if the war goes well in 2003, the stock market will continue to fall.

My guess is that the DJIA will be in the low 7000s or lower at the end of 2003.

(Click here for more information)