|




|
A brief trip around the world
with particular attention to the world's exotic trouble
spots
|
 |
Earth
|
|
|




|
Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars
|
Crisis Wars |
- |
Balkan War - early 1990s |
- |
Cambodian killing fields - 1970s |
|
Mid-Cycle Wars |
|
|




|
Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars
|
Crisis War Characteristics |
- |
Visceral cause - fury, fear that nation in danger |
- |
High energy: preparation, pursuit, revenge |
- |
Bottom-up - effort driven by the people |
- |
Minor anti-war (pacifist) movement |
- |
Targeting civilians - genocidal |
- |
Outcome: Major political, structural, boundary changes |
|
Mid-cycle War Characteristics |
- |
Low energy: surprise, defense, revanche |
- |
Top-down - Effort driven by the political leaders |
- |
Dominant anti-war (pacifist) movement |
- |
Political protection of civilians |
- |
Outcome: Little real change; "Internal revolution" |
|
Sex and Genocidal Crisis Wars |
- |
Both are essential to survival of the fittest |
- |
Sex increases population, genocidal war selectively reduces population |
|
|




|
Western and Eastern European Timelines
|
 |
Crisis war timelines for Western Europe and for Orthodox Christianity vs Muslim Civilizations
|
|
|




|
Iraq
|
 |
Iraq
|
|
From 'austerity' to 'awakening' |
- |
Only one generation past Iran/Iraq war, 1980s |
- |
Civil war is almost impossible (99%) |
|
Terrorist acts |
- |
Actions of individuals and small groups |
- |
Possible 'Tet offensive' near June 30 |
|
 |
Periods in cycle - #years approximate
|
|
|




|
Iran
|
 |
Iran
|
|
Like Iraq - Only one generation past Iran/Iran war, 1980s |
|
Pro-American riots and demonstrations since 1999 - overthrow mullahs? |
|
Is Iran developing nuclear weapons? |
|
|




|
Mideast
|
Palestinian Arabs vs Iraqi Muslims |
- |
"If provoked they'll start a war, but if we're careful they won't" |
- |
Different places in generational cycle |
|
Recent history |
- |
Ariel Sharon versus Yasser Arafat |
|
From 'unraveling' to 'crisis' |
- |
Sharon's Disengagement - Wall |
- |
Assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin |
- |
Suicide bombings as moderation |
- |
Regional war almost mathematically certain (99%) |
|
 |
Periods in cycle - #years approximate
|
|
|




|
Haiti
|
Early history of Haiti |
|
 |
French-oriented Haiti occupies about 1/3 of the island of Hispaniola, not far from Florida, and the Spanish-oriented Dominican Republic occupies 2/3.
|
|
- |
1492 - Christopher Columbus discovers Hispaniola |
- |
1700s - Wealthy French colony - 500K slaves |
|
Market-dominant minority vs majority |
- |
French-speaking light-skinned mulattos, mixed blood |
- |
Creole-speaking blacks (noirs) - 95% of pop |
|
Massacres in twentieth century |
- |
1915 - Crisis civil war |
- |
1915-34 - American occupation |
- |
1937 - Massacre by Dominican Republic's Trujilo |
- |
1960s - Massacre by Dr. Francois Duvalier |
|
Today's crisis period - 1992 to present |
- |
Malthus effect - food becomes more expensive |
- |
War postponed by money infusion |
- |
Analyst predictions: Occupation for 20 years |
|
|




|
Korea
|
 |
North and South Korea
|
|
Korean vs German Unification |
- |
Both partitioned after World War II |
- |
Different places in generational cycle |
- |
Korean war (1950-53) armistice after stalemate |
|
Impending reunification war |
- |
Kim Jong-il: "Embargo means war" |
- |
South Korean youth: Blaming America for partitioning |
|
|




|
Japan
|
 |
Japan
|
|
1853-68 - Commodore Perry to Meiji Restoration |
- |
Change in national character ('national lobotomy') |
- |
1894-1910 - Imperialist wars with China and Russia |
- |
Won Taiwan, Korea, southern Manchuria |
|
1930-45 - World War II |
- |
1930 - Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act |
- |
1931 - Invade Manchuria |
- |
US / League of Nations oil embargo |
- |
1941 - Bombs Pearl Harbor |
- |
Becomes pacifist nation |
|
|




|
China
|
 |
China
|
|
History of rebellions |
- |
1796 - White Lotus Rebellion |
- |
1851-71 - Taiping Rebellion and others |
- |
Population: 410 million to 350 million |
- |
1934-49 - Mao's Long March, crisis civil war |
- |
1949 - Chiang Kai-shek flees to Taiwan |
|
The Miserable Generation ('Baby boomers') |
- |
1950s -- All lawyers executed |
- |
1958-60 Great Leap Forward - 10s M deaths |
- |
1966-76 Cultural Revolution - indoctrination |
|
Awakening to Unraveling |
- |
1989 - Tiananmen Square massacre |
- |
1992 - Birth of Falun Gong |
- |
2000 - Over 100 million adherents of Falun Gong |
|
Unraveling to Crisis |
- |
Income disparity - rural peasants vs city workers |
- |
Collapse of Mao's structure - migration to city |
- |
Taiwan reunification crisis |
|
|




|
Taiwan
|
 |
Taiwan
|
|
"Wild Lily" generation |
- |
Wild Lily rebellion - 1990 |
- |
Develop Taiwanese (vs Chinese) identity |
- |
2000: Election of Chen Shui-bian from Democratic Progressive Party |
|
|




|
Vietnam
|
 |
French Indochina: Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos
|
|
French Indochina |
- |
1882-93 Crisis war between France and China |
- |
1954 French driven out by Ho Chi Minh |
|
Vietnam War - 1965-75 |
- |
Mid-cycle war for America |
|
Cambodia / Laos Civil War |
- |
Massive genocide and starvation (killing fields) |
|
 |
Periods in cycle - #years approximate
|
|