(Previous slide) A brief trip around the world
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars
A brief trip around the world




with particular attention to the world's exotic trouble spots




Earth
Earth

 
(Previous slide) A brief trip around the world
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars
Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars


  Crisis Wars
-   Rwandan War - 1994
-   Balkan War - early 1990s
-   Cambodian killing fields - 1970s
-   World War II
-   70-90 year cycle

  Mid-Cycle Wars
-   World War I
-   Vietnam War
 
(Previous slide) Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Western and Eastern European Timelines
Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars


  Crisis War Characteristics
-   Visceral cause - fury, fear that nation in danger
-   High energy: preparation, pursuit, revenge
-   Bottom-up - effort driven by the people
-   Minor anti-war (pacifist) movement
-   Targeting civilians - genocidal
-   Outcome: Major political, structural, boundary changes

  Mid-cycle War Characteristics
-   Political cause
-   Low energy: surprise, defense, revanche
-   Top-down - Effort driven by the political leaders
-   Dominant anti-war (pacifist) movement
-   Political protection of civilians
-   Outcome: Little real change; "Internal revolution"

  Sex and Genocidal Crisis Wars
-   Both are human needs
-   Both are irrational
-   Both occur regularly
-   Both are essential to survival of the fittest
-   Sex increases population, genocidal war selectively reduces population
 
(Previous slide) Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Iraq
Western and Eastern European Timelines


Crisis war timelines for Western 	Europe and for Orthodox Christianity vs Muslim Civilizations
Crisis war timelines for Western Europe and for Orthodox Christianity vs Muslim Civilizations

 
(Previous slide) Western and Eastern European Timelines
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Iran
Iraq


Iraq
Iraq


  From 'austerity' to 'awakening'
-   Only one generation past Iran/Iraq war, 1980s
-   Civil war is almost impossible (99%)


  Terrorist acts
-   Actions of individuals and small groups
-   Possible 'Tet offensive' near June 30


Periods in cycle - #years approximate
Periods in cycle - #years approximate

 
(Previous slide) Iraq
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Mideast
Iran


Iran
Iran


  Like Iraq - Only one generation past Iran/Iran war, 1980s


  Pro-American riots and demonstrations since 1999 - overthrow mullahs?


  Is Iran developing nuclear weapons?
 
(Previous slide) Iran
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Haiti
Mideast


  Palestinian Arabs vs Iraqi Muslims
-   "If provoked they'll start a war, but if we're careful they won't"
-   Different places in generational cycle

  Recent history
-   Replaying 1936-1949
-   Ariel Sharon versus Yasser Arafat

  From 'unraveling' to 'crisis'
-   Sharon's Disengagement - Wall
-   Assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin
-   Suicide bombings as moderation
-   Regional war almost mathematically certain (99%)

Periods in cycle - #years approximate
Periods in cycle - #years approximate

 
(Previous slide) Mideast
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Korea
Haiti


  Early history of Haiti

French-oriented Haiti occupies about 1/3 of 	the island of Hispaniola,    not far from Florida, and the 	Spanish-oriented Dominican Republic occupies 2/3.
French-oriented Haiti occupies about 1/3 of the island of Hispaniola, not far from Florida, and the Spanish-oriented Dominican Republic occupies 2/3.

-   1492 - Christopher Columbus discovers Hispaniola
-   1700s - Wealthy French colony - 500K slaves

  Market-dominant minority vs majority
-   French-speaking light-skinned mulattos, mixed blood
-   Creole-speaking blacks (noirs) - 95% of pop

  Massacres in twentieth century
-   1915 - Crisis civil war
-   1915-34 - American occupation
-   1937 - Massacre by Dominican Republic's Trujilo
-   1960s - Massacre by Dr. Francois Duvalier

  Today's crisis period - 1992 to present
-   Malthus effect - food becomes more expensive
-   War postponed by money infusion
-   Analyst predictions: Occupation for 20 years
 
(Previous slide) Haiti
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Japan
Korea


North and South Korea
North and South Korea


  Korean vs German Unification
-   Both partitioned after World War II
-   Different places in generational cycle
-   Korean war (1950-53) armistice after stalemate

  Impending reunification war
-   Kim Jong-il: "Embargo means war"
-   South Korean youth: Blaming America for partitioning
 
(Previous slide) Korea
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) China
Japan


Japan
Japan


  1853-68 - Commodore Perry to Meiji Restoration
-   Change in national character ('national lobotomy')
-   1894-1910 - Imperialist wars with China and Russia
-   Won Taiwan, Korea, southern Manchuria

  1930-45 - World War II
-   1930 - Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act
-   1931 - Invade Manchuria
-   US / League of Nations oil embargo
-   Invade China
-   1941 - Bombs Pearl Harbor
-   Becomes pacifist nation
 
(Previous slide) Japan
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Taiwan
China


China
China


  History of rebellions
-   1796 - White Lotus Rebellion
-   1851-71 - Taiping Rebellion and others
-   Population: 410 million to 350 million
-   1934-49 - Mao's Long March, crisis civil war
-   1949 - Chiang Kai-shek flees to Taiwan

  The Miserable Generation ('Baby boomers')
-   1950s -- All lawyers executed
-   1958-60 Great Leap Forward - 10s M deaths
-   1966-76 Cultural Revolution - indoctrination

  Awakening to Unraveling
-   1989 - Tiananmen Square massacre
-   1992 - Birth of Falun Gong
-   2000 - Over 100 million adherents of Falun Gong

  Unraveling to Crisis
-   Income disparity - rural peasants vs city workers
-   Collapse of Mao's structure - migration to city
-   Financial bubble
-   Taiwan reunification crisis
 
(Previous slide) China
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Vietnam
Taiwan


Taiwan
Taiwan


  "Wild Lily" generation
-   Wild Lily rebellion - 1990
-   Develop Taiwanese (vs Chinese) identity
-   2000: Election of Chen Shui-bian from Democratic Progressive Party
-   Moving away from China
 
(Previous slide) Taiwan
(Previous page) Introduction to Generational Dynamics: The Market for Forecasting
(Next page) The History of Western Civilization
(Next slide) Vietnam
Vietnam


French Indochina: Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos
French Indochina: Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos


  French Indochina
-   1882-93 Crisis war between France and China
-   1954 French driven out by Ho Chi Minh

  Vietnam War - 1965-75
-   Crisis war for Vietnam
-   Mid-cycle war for America

  Cambodia / Laos Civil War
-   Crisis civil war
-   Massive genocide and starvation (killing fields)

Periods in cycle - #years approximate
Periods in cycle - #years approximate


Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.