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A brief trip around the world
with particular attention to the world's exotic trouble
spots
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Earth
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Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars
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Crisis Wars |
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Balkan War - early 1990s |
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Cambodian killing fields - 1970s |
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Mid-Cycle Wars |
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Crisis Wars vs Mid-Cycle (interim) Wars
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Crisis War Characteristics |
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Visceral cause - fury, fear that nation in danger |
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High energy: preparation, pursuit, revenge |
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Bottom-up - effort driven by the people |
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Minor anti-war (pacifist) movement |
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Targeting civilians - genocidal |
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Outcome: Major political, structural, boundary changes |
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Mid-cycle War Characteristics |
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Low energy: surprise, defense, revanche |
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Top-down - Effort driven by the political leaders |
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Dominant anti-war (pacifist) movement |
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Political protection of civilians |
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Outcome: Little real change; "Internal revolution" |
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Sex and Genocidal Crisis Wars |
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Both are essential to survival of the fittest |
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Sex increases population, genocidal war selectively reduces population |
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Western and Eastern European Timelines
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Crisis war timelines for Western Europe and for Orthodox Christianity vs Muslim Civilizations
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Iraq
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Iraq
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From 'austerity' to 'awakening' |
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Only one generation past Iran/Iraq war, 1980s |
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Civil war is almost impossible (99%) |
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Terrorist acts |
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Actions of individuals and small groups |
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Possible 'Tet offensive' near June 30 |
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Periods in cycle - #years approximate
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Iran
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Iran
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Like Iraq - Only one generation past Iran/Iran war, 1980s |
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Pro-American riots and demonstrations since 1999 - overthrow mullahs? |
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Is Iran developing nuclear weapons? |
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Mideast
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Palestinian Arabs vs Iraqi Muslims |
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"If provoked they'll start a war, but if we're careful they won't" |
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Different places in generational cycle |
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Recent history |
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Ariel Sharon versus Yasser Arafat |
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From 'unraveling' to 'crisis' |
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Sharon's Disengagement - Wall |
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Assassination of Hamas leader Sheikh Ahmed Yassin |
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Suicide bombings as moderation |
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Regional war almost mathematically certain (99%) |
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Periods in cycle - #years approximate
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Haiti
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Early history of Haiti |
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French-oriented Haiti occupies about 1/3 of the island of Hispaniola, not far from Florida, and the Spanish-oriented Dominican Republic occupies 2/3.
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1492 - Christopher Columbus discovers Hispaniola |
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1700s - Wealthy French colony - 500K slaves |
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Market-dominant minority vs majority |
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French-speaking light-skinned mulattos, mixed blood |
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Creole-speaking blacks (noirs) - 95% of pop |
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Massacres in twentieth century |
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1915 - Crisis civil war |
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1915-34 - American occupation |
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1937 - Massacre by Dominican Republic's Trujilo |
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1960s - Massacre by Dr. Francois Duvalier |
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Today's crisis period - 1992 to present |
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Malthus effect - food becomes more expensive |
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War postponed by money infusion |
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Analyst predictions: Occupation for 20 years |
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Korea
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North and South Korea
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Korean vs German Unification |
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Both partitioned after World War II |
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Different places in generational cycle |
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Korean war (1950-53) armistice after stalemate |
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Impending reunification war |
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Kim Jong-il: "Embargo means war" |
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South Korean youth: Blaming America for partitioning |
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Japan
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Japan
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1853-68 - Commodore Perry to Meiji Restoration |
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Change in national character ('national lobotomy') |
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1894-1910 - Imperialist wars with China and Russia |
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Won Taiwan, Korea, southern Manchuria |
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1930-45 - World War II |
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1930 - Smoot-Hawley Tariff Act |
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1931 - Invade Manchuria |
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US / League of Nations oil embargo |
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1941 - Bombs Pearl Harbor |
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Becomes pacifist nation |
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China
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China
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History of rebellions |
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1796 - White Lotus Rebellion |
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1851-71 - Taiping Rebellion and others |
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Population: 410 million to 350 million |
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1934-49 - Mao's Long March, crisis civil war |
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1949 - Chiang Kai-shek flees to Taiwan |
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The Miserable Generation ('Baby boomers') |
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1950s -- All lawyers executed |
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1958-60 Great Leap Forward - 10s M deaths |
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1966-76 Cultural Revolution - indoctrination |
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Awakening to Unraveling |
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1989 - Tiananmen Square massacre |
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1992 - Birth of Falun Gong |
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2000 - Over 100 million adherents of Falun Gong |
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Unraveling to Crisis |
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Income disparity - rural peasants vs city workers |
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Collapse of Mao's structure - migration to city |
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Taiwan reunification crisis |
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Taiwan
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Taiwan
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"Wild Lily" generation |
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Wild Lily rebellion - 1990 |
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Develop Taiwanese (vs Chinese) identity |
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2000: Election of Chen Shui-bian from Democratic Progressive Party |
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Vietnam
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French Indochina: Vietnam, Cambodia, Laos
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French Indochina |
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1882-93 Crisis war between France and China |
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1954 French driven out by Ho Chi Minh |
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Vietnam War - 1965-75 |
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Mid-cycle war for America |
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Cambodia / Laos Civil War |
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Massive genocide and starvation (killing fields) |
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Periods in cycle - #years approximate
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