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Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
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Tech bubble |
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Real estate and credit bubbles |
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Financial crisis |
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Eurozone deterioration |
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Price/Earnings ratios |
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The Tech Bubble of the late 1990s
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Tech bubble began in 1995 |
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Why did it occur at all? |
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Why did it occur then - vs. 1985 or 2005? |
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International real estate bubble also began in 1995 |
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Economists have no explanation |
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Blaming Greenspan/2003 is not credible |
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Mainstream economists can't explain anything since 1995 |
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Can't explain tech bubble |
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Can't explain real estate bubble |
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Can't explain credit bubble |
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Didn't foresee the financial crisis |
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Didn't foresee where we are today |
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Have no idea what's going to happen next |
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Pending crises |
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Europe: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium |
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China: Massive real estate bubble about to pop |
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U.S.: Federal, state debt. Pensions bankrupt. |
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Price/Earnings ratios
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S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E1) 1871 to August 2010
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Price/Earnings ratios |
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Stock price / last 12 months' reported earnings |
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Well above average (13.91) since 1995 |
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WSJ: Current (5/20/2001) S&P 500 P/E ratio: 16.58 |
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Apply the Law of Mean Reversion |
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Continuing fraud |
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Fraud: 'Operating earnings' or 'forward earnings' |
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Became common after the 1990s tech bubble |
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Named names on my web site |
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Generational credit bubbles
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How money is 'created': Securitization of debt |
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Tulipomania - 1637 - Tulip future share |
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South Sea Bubble - 1621 - South Sea shares |
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Bankruptcy of French Monarchy - 1789 - 'assignats' |
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Panic of 1857 - Railway Shares |
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1929 - Foreign bonds and stock shares |
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2000s - Synthetic securities (CDSs, CDOs, IRSs) |
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Collapse of bubble |
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Huge deflationary spiral |
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Generational pervasiveness of bubble fraud
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Pervasiveness of fraud |
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Homeowners lied on their applications |
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Construction firms colluded with appraisers, got kickbacks |
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Construction firms colluded with brokers, got kickbacks |
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Lenders resold mortgages without verifying claims |
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Lenders adopted predatory lending practices |
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Lenders gave loans to people with no hope of repaying |
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'Financial Engineers' created synthetic securities |
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Synthetic securities were mathematically fraudulent |
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Investment models assumed real estate would rise forever |
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Ratings firms took fat fees to lie about AAA ratings on securities |
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Monoline firms took fat fees to insure fraudulent securities |
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Only explanation is generational |
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Incompetent, greedy Boomer bosses, cooperating with |
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Nihilistic, greedy Gen-X perpetrators |
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DJIA - 1900 to 2010
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Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1900 - present
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DJIA - 1900 to 2010 + exponential growth
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Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1900 - present - with exponential growth trend curve
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DJIA - 1900 to 2010 + exponential growth on log scale
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Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1900 - 1950 - with exponential growth trend curve / log scale
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Generational euphoria / denial
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Generational 'moods' overlaying Dow Industrials since 1950
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1970s models, 1990s models are irrelevant today |
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Economics of the Maginot Line |
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Boomers and Generation-Xers |
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'Financial engineering' programs - 1990s |
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Greed+Incompetence with Greed+Nihilism |
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Global Real Estate Bubble
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Housing price index in various countries, 1970-2008
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Tobin's q and Shiller's CAPE
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Tobin's q and Shiller's CAPE indexes (Smithers & Co.)
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