(Previous slide) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) The Tech Bubble of the late 1990s
Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present


  Tech bubble

  Real estate and credit bubbles

  Financial crisis

  Eurozone deterioration

  Price/Earnings ratios
 
(Previous slide) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) Price/Earnings ratios
The Tech Bubble of the late 1990s


  Tech bubble began in 1995
-   Began in 1995
-   Why did it occur at all?
-   Why did it occur then - vs. 1985 or 2005?
-   International real estate bubble also began in 1995
-   Economists have no explanation
-   Blaming Greenspan/2003 is not credible

  Mainstream economists can't explain anything since 1995
-   Can't explain tech bubble
-   Can't explain real estate bubble
-   Can't explain credit bubble
-   Didn't foresee the financial crisis
-   Didn't foresee where we are today
-   Have no idea what's going to happen next

  Pending crises
-   Europe: Greece, Ireland, Portugal, Spain, Italy, Belgium
-   China: Massive real estate bubble about to pop
-   U.S.: Federal, state debt. Pensions bankrupt.
 
(Previous slide) The Tech Bubble of the late 1990s
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) Generational credit bubbles
Price/Earnings ratios


S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E1) 1871 to August 2010
S&P 500 Price/Earnings Ratio (P/E1) 1871 to August 2010


  Price/Earnings ratios
-   Stock price / last 12 months' reported earnings
-   Well above average (13.91) since 1995
-   WSJ: Current (5/20/2001) S&P 500 P/E ratio: 16.58
-   Apply the Law of Mean Reversion

  Continuing fraud
-   Fraud: 'Operating earnings' or 'forward earnings'
-   Became common after the 1990s tech bubble
-   Named names on my web site
 
(Previous slide) Price/Earnings ratios
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) Generational pervasiveness of bubble fraud
Generational credit bubbles


  How money is 'created': Securitization of debt
-   Tulipomania - 1637 - Tulip future share
-   South Sea Bubble - 1621 - South Sea shares
-   Bankruptcy of French Monarchy - 1789 - 'assignats'
-   Panic of 1857 - Railway Shares
-   1929 - Foreign bonds and stock shares
-   2000s - Synthetic securities (CDSs, CDOs, IRSs)

  Collapse of bubble
-   Huge deflationary spiral
-   Not (hyper)inflation
 
(Previous slide) Generational credit bubbles
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) DJIA - 1900 to 2010
Generational pervasiveness of bubble fraud


  Pervasiveness of fraud
-   Homeowners lied on their applications
-   Construction firms colluded with appraisers, got kickbacks
-   Construction firms colluded with brokers, got kickbacks
-   Lenders resold mortgages without verifying claims
-   Lenders adopted predatory lending practices
-   Lenders gave loans to people with no hope of repaying
-   'Financial Engineers' created synthetic securities
-   Synthetic securities were mathematically fraudulent
-   Investment models assumed real estate would rise forever
-   Ratings firms took fat fees to lie about AAA ratings on securities
-   Monoline firms took fat fees to insure fraudulent securities

  Only explanation is generational
-   Incompetent, greedy Boomer bosses, cooperating with
-   Nihilistic, greedy Gen-X perpetrators
 
(Previous slide) Generational pervasiveness of bubble fraud
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) DJIA - 1900 to 2010 + exponential growth
DJIA - 1900 to 2010


Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1900 - present
Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1900 - present

 
(Previous slide) DJIA - 1900 to 2010
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) DJIA - 1900 to 2010 + exponential growth on log scale
DJIA - 1900 to 2010 + exponential growth


Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1900 - present - with exponential growth trend curve
Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1900 - present - with exponential growth trend curve

 
(Previous slide) DJIA - 1900 to 2010 + exponential growth
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) Generational euphoria / denial
DJIA - 1900 to 2010 + exponential growth on log scale


Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1900 - 1950 - with exponential growth trend curve / log scale
Dow Jones Industrial Average -- 1900 - 1950 - with exponential growth trend curve / log scale

 
(Previous slide) DJIA - 1900 to 2010 + exponential growth on log scale
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) Global Real Estate Bubble
Generational euphoria / denial


Generational 'moods' overlaying Dow Industrials since 1950
Generational 'moods' overlaying Dow Industrials since 1950


  1970s models, 1990s models are irrelevant today
-   Inflation vs deflation
-   Economics of the Maginot Line

  Boomers and Generation-Xers
-   'Financial engineering' programs - 1990s
-   Greed+Incompetence with Greed+Nihilism
 
(Previous slide) Generational euphoria / denial
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) Tobin's q and Shiller's CAPE
Global Real Estate Bubble


Housing price index in various countries, 1970-2008
Housing price index in various countries, 1970-2008

 
(Previous slide) Global Real Estate Bubble
(Previous page) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Next page) Trends and Controversies
(Next slide) Tobin's q and Shiller's CAPE
Tobin's q and Shiller's CAPE


Tobin's q and Shiller's CAPE indexes (Smithers & Co.)
Tobin's q and Shiller's CAPE indexes (Smithers & Co.)


Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.