(Previous slide) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) America's Crisis era -- 2000s, 2010s
World in Crisis - 2000-Present


  China

  Korea

  Japan

  India and Pakistan

  Afghanistan

  Saudi Arabia

  Israel and Palestine
 
(Previous slide) World in Crisis - 2000-Present
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Worldwide increase in Xenophobia
America's Crisis era -- 2000s, 2010s


  Disappearance of all WW II survivors
-   9/11 MIGHT have started a world war
-   Return to stereotypical gender roles

  Worldwide increase in xenophobia
-   Increasing tensions along Mexican border
-   Increasing tensions with Muslims
-   2001: Incarceration of many Muslims
-   2010: Spike in public xenophobia (Ground Zero)
 
(Previous slide) America's Crisis era -- 2000s, 2010s
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Generational History of China to 1989
Worldwide increase in Xenophobia


  Repudiation of 1960s Awakening era
-   1960s: 'Everyone is equal'
-   1960s: Racial and gender equality
-   1990s: Only the individual matters

  Other regions
-   Europe: Roma Gypsies and Muslims
-   Egypt: Muslims, Coptic Christians
-   Mideast: Sunni vs Shia vs West
-   Japan: Korea, China
-   China: Han vs Japanese, Uighurs, Tibetans
 
(Previous slide) Worldwide increase in Xenophobia
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) China's Unraveling Era - 1989-2005
Generational History of China to 1989


  History of regular massive rebellions
-   White Lotus Rebellion, 1795-1805
-   Taiping Rebellion, 1851-1864
-   Mao's Communist Revolution, 1934-1949
-   China is overdue for the next rebellion

  Recovery Era, 1949-65
-   'Let a hundred flowers bloom' - systematic repression
-   Great Leap Forward - Tens of thousands of deaths bloodbath
-   The 'Miserable Generation' born in the 1950s

  Awakening era, 1965-89
-   Cultural revolution, 1965-68
-   Rapprochement with U.S
-   Joined United Nations
-   Instituted many educational and govt reforms
-   Open criticism of Mao
 
(Previous slide) Generational History of China to 1989
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) China's Crisis Era - 2005-present
China's Unraveling Era - 1989-2005


  Tiananmen Square massacre, 1989
-   Led by Nomad archetypes (like our Gen-X)
-   Generational echo of May 4 Movement (May 4 1919)
-   Victory of war survivors over post-war generations

  Rise of Falun Gong movement
-   Led by 'Miserable Generation'
-   Millions of people meeting to do aerobic exercises
-   Echos of Taiping Rebellion

  Panic in Beijing
-   Collapse of Soviet Union in 1991
-   Fear of Falun Gong -- brutal crackdown
-   Tens of thousands of 'mass incidents' each year

  Taiwan: White Lily rebellion, 1991
-   Rise of independence movement
 
(Previous slide) China's Unraveling Era - 1989-2005
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) China's Crisis Era
China's Crisis Era - 2005-present


  Taiwan Anti-Secession law, 2005
-   Calls for 'peaceful unification'
-   Recognizes any 'reckless attempt' re Taiwan independence
-   Requires China to resort to 'non-peaceful approaches'

  Widespread anti-Western xenophobia
-   Financial crisis, 2007-8
-   Anger and humiliation over Olympics torch ceremony
-   Anger at anti-China bias re Tibet uprising
-   Highly nationalistic 'Unhappy China'
 
(Previous slide) China's Crisis Era - 2005-present
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Korea
China's Crisis Era


  China preparing for war with U.S.
-   Massive military buildup
-   Repeated threats of war over Taiwan
-   String of Pearls strategy

  Highly confrontational foreign policy since 2009
-   Serious confrontations with Japan
-   Serious confrontations in East/South China Seas
-   Claiming that enormous regions are owned by China
-   Aggressive on border disputes with India
-   Agressively siding with Pakistan on Kashmir/Jammu

  Schizophrenic foreign policy
-   Attempts to reconcile with neighbors
-   Attempts to project a friendlier international face

  Rapid internal changes
-   Internal generational conflict
-   Transition to younger generation in 2012
 
(Previous slide) China's Crisis Era
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Korea's Crisis Era
Korea


  Crisis war - World War II
-   Japanese occupation/colonization, 1905-1945
-   Japan's use of 'comfort women' during WW II

  Recovery Era
-   Korean War, 1950-1953 (armistice)

  Kwangju massacre, South Korea, 1980
-   Followed 1979 coup d'état
-   Awakening era climax
-   Led to victory of '386 generation'
 
(Previous slide) Korea
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Japan
Korea's Crisis Era


  Crisis era: North
-   Near starvation
-   Renewed military confrontations with South
-   Development of nuclear weapons

  Crisis era: South - Schizophrenia
-   Loyalty to Koreans in the North
-   Loyalty to traditional allies in China
-   Fear of invasion/nuclear weapons in North
-   Loathing of Japanese - Western ally
 
(Previous slide) Korea's Crisis Era
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Japan - 20th Century
Japan


  Meiji Restoration (1868)
-   Invasion by Commander Perry, 1853
-   Several civil wars
-   Rule by Emperor was restored

  Recovery era
-   Industrialization
-   Compulsory education
 
(Previous slide) Japan
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) India and Pakistan
Japan - 20th Century


  Awakening era: Colonialism
-   Reaction to Perry's easy victory
-   Learning colonialism from the West (Scramble for Africa)
-   Learning to be an advanced, 'westernized' nation

  Unraveling era: Imperialism
-   Tokyo stock market crash, 1919
-   Smoot-Hawley act, 1930
-   Invasion of Manchuria, 1931
-   Invasion of China, 1937
-   Pearl Harbor, 1941

  Postwar - Repudiation of military
 
(Previous slide) Japan - 20th Century
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Afghanistan
India and Pakistan


  Colony of Britain until 1947
-   Indian independence movement: Mahatma Gandhi
-   Founder of Pakistan: Muhammad Ali Jinnah

  Partition, 1947, and war
-   One of the bloodiest wars of the century
-   Forced migration of 14 million people, 1 million killed
-   Separating Hindus from Muslims
-   Epicenter: Kashmir and Jammu

  Crisis era
-   Tensions growing over Kashmir/Jammu
-   Tensions growing over terrorist attacks
-   Almost went to war after 2008 Mumbai attack
-   China siding with Pakistan
-   Russia siding with India
 
(Previous slide) India and Pakistan
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Saudi Arabia
Afghanistan


  Russian invasion in 1980s
-   Unraveling era war
-   Stalemate (defeat for Russians)

  Ethnic alignments - Crisis civil war, 1990-96
-   Sunni Pashtuns in south linked to Pashtuns in Pakistan
-   Shia Hizaris in north linked to Persians and Hindus

  Recovery era, 1996 - present
-   Rise of Sunni hardliners - Taliban
-   Link with Arab jihadists - al-Qaeda, bin Laden, 9/11
-   Defeat of Taliban army, 2002
-   Link with Pakistan's Pashtun jihadists
-   Link with Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU)
 
(Previous slide) Afghanistan
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Saudi Arabia - Change of Direction
Saudi Arabia


  Long-time alliance with U.S.
-   Saudis supply the oil
-   America supplies the military defense against Iran

  Split over Arab uprisings
-   Throwing Mubarak under the bus
-   Opposing Saudi intervention in Bahrain
 
(Previous slide) Saudi Arabia
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Israel and Palestine region
Saudi Arabia - Change of Direction


  Saudi view
-   Iran is an existential threat to Gulf states
-   U.S. is not willing to take Iran seriously
-   U.S. not willing to pressure Israel on settlements
-   Very rapid attitude change

  Saudi action - rise of the Gulf Cooperation Council
-   Six Gulf nations
-   Invite Morocco and Jordan to join
-   Economic aid vs well-trained Sunni armies
-   Sever link to U.S. defense umbrella
 
(Previous slide) Saudi Arabia - Change of Direction
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Israel-Palestinian peace process
Israel and Palestine region


  Crisis war at founding
-   Partitioning of Palestine in 1948
-   Creation of Israel, May 14, 1948
-   1948 Arab-Israeli war

  Palestinian view: The Naqba
-   Loss of ancestral lands
-   4 million refugees
 
(Previous slide) Israel and Palestine region
(Previous page) The Post WW II world - 1945 to 2000
(Next page) Bubbles and Global Financial Crisis - 1995-Present
(Next slide) Israel-Palestinian peace process
Israel-Palestinian peace process


  Peace process
-   Yasser Arafat and Ariel Sharon
-   Mideast Roadmap to Peace, May 2003
-   Death of Yasser Arafat, election of Mahmoud Abbas
-   Israeli withdrawal from Gaza, 2005
-   Permanent vegetative state - Ariel Sharon

  Three wars since then
-   Israel vs Hizbollah in Lebanon, 2006
-   Fatah vs Hamas in Gaza, 2007
-   Operation Cast Lead: Israel vs Hamas in Gaza, 2009
-   Extremely volatile

Copyright © 2002-2016 by John J. Xenakis.