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Web Log - "Watching the pot come to a boil"

29-Jul-15 World View -- Iran blamed for terrorist bombing in Bahrain

Puerto Rico expected to default on Saturday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Iran blamed for terrorist bombing in Bahrain


Comments by Iran's Supreme Leader caused Bahrain to recall its ambassador (AP)
Comments by Iran's Supreme Leader caused Bahrain to recall its ambassador (AP)

A bomb on Tuesday exploded outside a girls' school in the Shia village of Sitra, killing two policemen and wounding six. This was the first bombing in Bahrain in several months, and the worst since March 2014.

Bahrain is governed by Sunni tribal leaders, although the population is 2/3 Shia. In February 2011, during the chaotic start of the "Arab Awakening," peaceful Shia protesters in Bahrain were met by extreme violence, when police smashed into demonstrators with guns, clubs and teargas. (See "18-Feb-11 News -- Bahrain's government chooses the massacre scenario.")

Iran has long been accused of interfering in Bahraini affairs, and in particular of supporting the Shia opposition. According to Bahrain media, "Early information suggests that the explosives used in today’s terrorist attack are of the same type that were recently intercepted coming from Iran."

On Saturday, Bahrain had recalled its ambassador to Iran after Iran's supreme leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei said that the nuclear deal Tehran agreed with the West would not alter its support for the governments of Syria and Iraq, nor its backing for "oppressed people" in Yemen and Bahrain, and the Palestinians. Khamenei's comments provoked widespread outrage in Bahrain. Reuters and Gulf News and The National (UAE, 7/25)

Puerto Rico expected to default on Saturday

As expected, Puerto Rico is expected to be in default on Saturday, unable to make a $58 million payment due on Friday to bondholders.

Puerto Rico's governor Alejandro García Padilla announced last month that the island territory will be unable to pay off its $72 billion in debts, so Saturday's bankruptcy will not be a surprise.

Many people have invested in Puerto Rico bonds because they pay 10% interest (yields) and because under federal law they're "triple-tax free," meaning that you can earn 10% interest every year and not have to pay federal, state or municipal tax on the interest you collect. It's a sweet deal, provided that Puerto Rico doesn't go bankrupt, because if it does, then you lose most or all of your initial investment.

A default will hurt a huge number of ordinary investors. 52% of all U.S. municipal bond funds hold credit tied to Puerto Rico. Even if individual investors don't individually own PR bonds, they own them through their 401k's or other investment funds, which have been boosting returns by purchasing the PR bonds. These funds will all lose significant principal in a PR default.

The situation is expected to be chaotic and painful, since Puerto Rico cannot file for bankruptcy (as Detroit did) under U.S. law. CNBC and Prensa Latina

China's government to continue buying stocks to stabilize markets

The Shanghai composite index on Tuesday fell 1.68%, after falling 8.48% on Monday, after massive intervention by the China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC). There were a variety of interventions, including massively buying shares, preventing some stocks from being traded, forbidding large companies from selling shares, and forbidding any Chinese media from using words like "plunge" that could cause people to panic. The plunge was a sign to many investors that the Chinese Communist Party is losing control of the stock market.

The CSRC announced that it will continue buying stock shares, in the hope of keeping the market from crashing.

Many ordinary Chinese investors are complaining that they're "trapped in the stock market." These means that they can't sell without losing a lot of money, so they have to hope that government will intervene sufficiently to push up the market again, to the point where the CAN sell. This situation highlights the danger: Every time the CSRC intervenes so massively that they push the market up, many investors immediately sell, pushing the market down again. Xinhua and Reuters and CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jul-15 World View -- Iran blamed for terrorist bombing in Bahrain thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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28-Jul-15 World View -- China faces nightmare political scenario with stock market plunge

Turkey-US 'ISIS-free zone' in Syria becomes increasingly controversial

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

US military says China is lying about its artificial islands


Numerous Chinese dredging vessels around an artificial island in May 2 photo taken by American P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft
Numerous Chinese dredging vessels around an artificial island in May 2 photo taken by American P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft

Adm. Harry Harris, commander of U.S. Pacific Command, indicated that China has been consistently lying by denying the military purpose of the artificial islands they're building in the South China Sea:

"They are building ports that are deep enough to host warships and they’re building a 10,000-foot runway at Fiery Cross Reef. A 10,000-foot runaway is large enough to take a B-52, almost large enough for the Space Shuttle, and 3,000 feet longer than you need to take off a 747. So, there’s no small airplane that requires a runway of that length. They’re building revetted aircraft hangars at some of the facilities there that are clearly designed, in my view, to host tactical fighter aircraft. ...

Most countries choose to pursue diplomatic means to address their disputes. China, on the other hand, is changing the status quo in the region through aggressive coercive island building without meaningful diplomatic efforts toward dispute resolution or arbitration. China is changing facts on the ground...essentially, creating false sovereignty ... by building man-made islands on top of coral reefs, rocks, and shoals. These activities are harming the environment and will not strengthen any country’s legal claims to disputed areas in the South China Sea."

One of the excuses that China has been giving is that other countries have also built artificial islands. But according to Harris:

"While Vietnam, Malaysia, the Philippines and Taiwan have also conducted land reclamation in the South China Sea, their total — approximately 100 acres over 45 years — is dwarfed by the size, scope and scale of China's massive buildup."

He added that China has reclaimed almost 3,000 acres in only 18 months, resulting in enormous harm to the fragile ecosystem. Defense One and Stars and Stripes

China state TV shows mock military attack on Taiwan

Earlier this month, Chinese state TV ran video of People's Liberation Army soldiers storming a mock-up of Taiwan's presidential palace during a major military exercise in northern China.

China has frequently made it clear that Taiwan is sovereign territory of mainland China, and there will be a military attack if Taiwan makes any kind political change to become more independent. As a result, Taiwan's pro-China and pro-Independence governments have for years been following a careful dance not to antagonize China too much, while also maintaining a sufficient arm's length from China. Nonetheless, China has made it clear that, at some point, Taiwan will have to return to the mainland.

It's hard to know what to make of the mock attack on Taiwan's presidential palace appearing on state TV. Was it an intentional signal that a military invasion is close? Or was it left in the video unintentionally? A YouTube link to the video is given below, and the mock attack segment runs from about 3:01 to 3:04 (that is, only three seconds).

A Chinese military attack on Taiwan will bring the U.S. into war China within hours. Even if the U.S. appeases China and doesn't require, something that I believe is almost vanishingly unlikely, then increased tensions in the region will spiral into war before long. Business Insider and YouTube

China faces nightmare political scenario with stock market plunge

China's stock market appears to have been recovering since July 9, after falling 30% since June 12, due an imploding bubble. As I wrote in "25-Jul-15 World View -- Commodities and world trade volume plunge as China pumps stock market", China has all but destroyed the Shanghai stock market as a market, by massively intervening to keep the bubble from imploding further. A bubble never implodes only halfway, so there was never any chance that the intervention would work.

On Monday, the Shanghai composite index plunged 8.5%, the greatest one-day market plunge since 2007, and so now the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) faces a double humiliation. First, it's now clear to a lot of people that the stock market will crash, and that millions of people, especially elderly people, will lose their life savings.

And second, it's now clear that the great, powerful CCP is not powerful enough to control the stock market. This may be enough to cause a panic or even a rebellion.

Typically in these situations, there are wild gyrations. The index may fall 10% one day and rise 10% the next day. There might be a bounce back on Tuesday. On the other hand, more than 1,700 stocks fell by the daily 10% limit on Monday, indicating that they would have fallen even more if allowed. This would indicate a further plunge on Tuesday. Either way, the bubble must continue imploding at some point. (At this writing, on Monday evening ET = Tuesday morning in Shanghai, the market has already fallen 4%, and stocks are down across Asia. Commodities continue to fall.)

The CCP is now going to be considering what further desperate measures they can try. The government has already poured some $800 billion into the market within a few days. As a last resort, the CCP may have to "print" a lot of money and purchase stock shares from anyone who wants to sell them.

China's history is filled with huge, massive internal rebellions (civil wars). The last three were the White Lotus Rebellion (1796-1805) and the Taiping Rebellion (1852-1869), Mao's Communist Revolution (1934-49), killing millions or tens of millions of people each time. These occur at regular intervals, with each new one occurring at about the time that the survivors of the preceding one die off. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's time for the next one and, in fact, it's a bit overdue. The CCP officials are aware of that even if they don't know anything about generational theory. Bloomberg and Asia Times

Turkey-US 'ISIS-free zone' in Syria becomes increasingly controversial

Turkey last week announced US warplanes could use Turkey's Incirlik and Diyarbakir air bases to launch attacks on the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Syria. The terms of the US-Turkey agreement that led to that announcement are becoming clearer, and are generating controversy.

The heart of the agreement is that the US and Turkey will work together to create an "ISIS-free zone" in Syria along a portion of the border with Turkey. This was being called a "safe zone" last week, but that name has apparently been abandoned so as not to provoke Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. The term "no-fly zone" has been abandoned for the same reason.

As we wrote in "26-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up 'safe zone'", the Kurds in northern Syria are separated into two large enclaves, one in the east up the border with Iraq, and one in the west. If the Kurds can unite those two regions, then it can declare the entire region a Kurdish state, something that Turkey will not tolerate.

The proposed "ISIS-free zone" is the region separating the two Kurdish enclaves, and so the objective of the Turks seems to be to create it actually as an "ISIS-free and Kurdish-free zone." This severely complicates the US coalition's mission in Syria, since the Kurds are supposed to be our allies. Pro-Kurdish activists are accusing Turkey and the US as being in a joint plan to kill Kurds as well as ISIS.

It's worth pointing out that there are no good guys in Syria. Bashar al-Assad is a genocidal monster who's used "industrial strength" torture, barrel bombs and Sarin gas on innocent women and children. The Kurdish PKK is a far left revolutionary terrorist group that has been bombing and murdering innocent civilians for decades. And of course ISIS and al-Nusra are bloody jihadists who decapitate innocent civilians just for fun. There's really no one to root for here. However this "ISIS-free zone" gets sorted out, all we can really do is watch as the Syria continues to deteriorate, until we're finally drawn in and forced to fight someone, whoever we feel is our enemy at the time. Hurriyet (Ankara)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jul-15 World View -- China faces nightmare political scenario with stock market plunge thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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27-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened

Syria's Bashar al-Assad admits that regime army is in decline

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Syria's Bashar al-Assad admits that regime army is in decline


Grim Bashar al-Assad gives national speech on Sunday (SANA/AP)
Grim Bashar al-Assad gives national speech on Sunday (SANA/AP)

As we've been reporting since April, the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been increasingly showing signs of collapse, losing one major city after another either to the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) or to the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front).

On Sunday, a clearly weakened Bashar al-Assad gave a nationally televised speech that was almost a speech of desperation. He said that there have been so many defections and desertions, that the army's fighting strength has been cut deeply. As a result, the regime has had to retreat from some regions of the country in order to hold on to other regions of the country.

According to al-Assad:

"If we thought we will be victorious in all the battles everywhere at the same time ... this is unrealistic and impossible. We are forced to give up areas to move those forces to the areas that we want to hold onto. ...

Are the Syrian armed forces able ... to defend the homeland? Yes, it is certainly capable.

But the army in the first degree is a matter of manpower which would then utilize the weapons and ammunition. Everything is available but there is a lack of manpower."

The last sentence is presumably an allusion to the massive flows of heavy weapons that Russia is supplying to the genocidal dictator.

The question of what percentage of Syria the regime still controls was discussed by several analysts on the BBC. According to some reports, the regime controls only 25% of the country. That may be true, but much of the other 75% is most desert and far-flung rural areas where there are few people. Among the major cities and other strategic regions, the regime controls more than 25%, but less than 50%.

Right now, the regime controls Damascus, Homs and strongholds of Assad's minority Alawite sect in coastal areas. If there are any further losses to ISIS or al-Nusra, then those will be very significant. So the question is: Was al-Assad admitting past losses, or was he preparing the public for future, more significant losses? That question is unanswered. Telegraph (London) and Reuters and ARA News (Syria) and LA Times

Al-Assad announces general amnesty for Syria's army deserters

Sunday's speech by Bashar al-Assad comes one day after state media announced, on Saturday, a decree for a general amnesty for military deserters who violated the country's compulsory military conscription law. Deserters have two months to turn themselves in to take advantage of the amnesty.

It's not believed that this decree will result in a flood of defectors and deserters returning the army, if that's what al-Assad is hoping for. Daily Star (Beirut) and BBC

Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened

Citizens of Turkey are bewildered by the breathless speed of events. In less than a week, Turkey has turned from a country determined to avoid war into a country fighting two enemies in two countries. Turkey's warplanes are bombing Kurdish PKK strongholds in northern Iraq and ISIS strongholds in northern Syria, with the threat of bombing Kurdish PYD strongholds in northern Syria, where they are fighting ISIS. In addition, security forces over the weekend arrested over 400 people in cities across the country, accusing them of been PKK militants, and a scheduled political rally in Istanbul in support of Kurdish rights was ordered cancelled in order to avoid violence.

On Sunday, Turkey invoked Nato's Article 4, which allows member states to request a meeting if they feel their territorial integrity or security is under threat.

Nato Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg called a Nato meeting for Tuesday, to be attended by all 28 member nations. According to a statement by Stoltenberg:

"Turkey requested the meeting in view of the seriousness of the situation after the heinous terrorist attacks in recent days, and also to inform Allies of the measures it is taking. NATO Allies follow developments very closely and stand in solidarity with Turkey."

Article 4 is less potent than Article 5, which recognizes an attack against one or more members as an attack against all. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and AP and Nato

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey invokes Nato article 4 with 'territorial integrity and security' threatened thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (27-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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26-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up 'safe zone'

Turkey - PKK 'peace process' threatened by new Turkish war policy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Thousands of pro-Kurd demonstrators march in Paris


Protesters in Paris carrying a banner saying, 'Stop Erdogan's double game' (AP)
Protesters in Paris carrying a banner saying, 'Stop Erdogan's double game' (AP)

More than 1,000 Kurds and leftist Turks have marched in Paris to protest airstrikes by Turkey on Kurdish militant camps in northern Iraq. One banner held high at Saturday's march read, "To hit the PKK is collaborating with ISIS." AP

Turkey - PKK 'peace process' threatened by new Turkish war policy

Turkey's rapidly changing policy towards the war in Syria seems to have become more risky, complex and dangerous every day for the last six days, ever since Monday's terror attack on Suruç killing 32 mostly young pro-Kurdish activists who were discussing plans to help rebuild the town of Kobani, which the Kurds had captured from ISIS in January. No one has claimed responsibility for the Suruç attack, but Turkish officials believe that the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is responsible.

The Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a communist separatist terror group advocating a separate Kurdish state of Kurdistan to be formed out of regions from Syria, Turkey and Iraq, has been conducting terrorist attacks against Turkish government officials for decades, including kidnapping, bombings and assassinations. Turkey and the PKK agreed to a ceasefire and "peace process" in 2013.

But now, that peace process is in jeopardy, after Turkey's major U-turns and changes in foreign policy this week. Many people in Turkey fear a full-scale return to hostilities between the armed forces and PKK.

Early on Saturday, Turkish warplanes launched attacks on PKK strongholds in the Kandil mountains in northern Iraq, near the border with Turkey. These attacks were an almost daily occurrence before the ceasefire agreement.

Turkey's pro-Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party (HDP) issued a statement criticizing Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan for "mixing the fight against the Kurdish people with the fight against ISIS," and added:

"The AKP [Erdogan's Justice and Development Party] government, state institutions and the army have unfortunately taken steps that aborted the solution and peace process, as well as the effective ceasefire.

A plan to win back a single party majority again by creating a nationalist and militarist climate, making an impression of engaging in a comprehensive struggle against terrorism is a plan to burn the country."

According to a statement on the PKK web site: "The truce has no meaning anymore after these intense air strikes by the occupant Turkish army," alluding to the separatist claim that Turkey is striking the "independent state of Kurdistan." Hurriyet (Ankara) and AP and Hurriyet

Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up 'safe zone'

In addition to the airstrikes in northern Iraq, Turkey's warplanes have been striking ISIS targets in northern Syria, with the stated objective of setting up a "safe zone" or a "no-fly zone."

This concept has a long history. Ever since the tsunami of Syrian refugees began flooding across the border into Turkey in 2011, Turkish officials have suggested that there may be a need to set up a "no-fly zone" in northern Syria to which the refugees could flee without having to cross into Turkey. However, this suggestion was never implemented, mainly because Turkey didn't want to enter the war in Syria, and Syria's president was loudly objecting to any talk of Turkey striking Syrian territory.

Like so many other things, this policy has been completely reversed since Monday's attack on Suruç. Turkey is now planning to strike at both ISIS and PKK targets in northern Syria.

Prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu on Saturday gave the following explanation for the need for "natural safe zones":

"Unfortunately Turkey is surrounded by a ring of fire.

In such an atmosphere, Turkey tries to keep her democracy and development alive... these operations have carried a message to the countries in the region and to international circles: whatever happens in Syria and Iraq, in our border regions, we will not allow them to threaten Turkey's security and will not hesitate to take necessary measures."

This has generated accusations that Turkey is using the that attacks on ISIS are a thinly veiled cover for planned attacks on Kurdish (PYD) forces in Syria.

The Kurds in northern Syria are separated into two large enclaves, one in the east up the border with Iraq, and one in the west. A major objective for the Kurds fighting ISIS in Syria is to control the region between the two enclaves and declare the united region a Kurdish state, something that Turkey will not tolerate.

Turkish sources say that there are currently no plans for airstrikes to target the Kurdish Democratic Union Party (PYD) forces in Syria, which are thought to be linked to the PKK in Turkey. But those plans could change if the Kurds gain more control of the border with Turkey. This was the meaning of Davutoglu's statement that "whatever happens in Syria and Iraq, in our border regions, we will not allow them to threaten Turkey's security and will not hesitate to take necessary measures."

However, Turkmen in northern Syria claim that they're being driven out of their homes by Kurdish PYD forces, and they are requesting help from Turkey's government. Hurriyet (Ankara) and BBC and AP and Anadolu (Turkey)

Arab News: Turkey is lying about the attack in Suruç

An analysis in the Arab News says that the evidence points away from the claim that ISIS was responsible for the attack in Suruç, and points to the PKK as the perpetrator:

The columnist concludes darkly that the attack was a conspiracy involving Turkey, the PKK, and the United States, although no evidence of that was presented.

I believe that Turkey's new policies this week are potentially explosive. I've been saying for a long time that there is no war of Muslims versus the West, at least not yet. What there is is a massive and increasing war of Muslims versus Muslims, that's becoming significantly worse every week. Many analysts are pointing to the US nuclear deal with Iran as forcing Sunni Muslim governments to become more militarily aggressive (in Syria and Yemen). As we wrote last week in "19-Jul-15 World View -- Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal", the Iran nuclear deal is forcing yet another realignment in the Arab world, as it deteriorates into war. Turkey's new policies advance that trend even further. Arab News

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Jul-15 World View -- Turkey bombs ISIS targets in northern Syria to set up 'safe zone' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (26-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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25-Jul-15 World View -- Commodities and world trade volume plunge as China pumps stock market

Turkey's warplanes bomb ISIS and PKK strongholds in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Turkey's warplanes bomb ISIS and PKK strongholds in Syria


Turkish soldiers patrol near the border with Syria on Friday (AP)
Turkish soldiers patrol near the border with Syria on Friday (AP)

Just a week ago, it was Turkey's clearly stated policy to stay out of the war in Syria. But as we wrote yesterday in Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruç, Turkey no longer has any choice but to respond.

In a major policy reversal earlier this week, Turkey will let the US use Incirlik Air Base to fight the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Syria, something that had been refused all along.

But perhaps the biggest change is that now Turkey's warplanes will join the U.S.-led coalition airstrikes against ISIS targets in Syria. Turkey has already begun striking targets in Syria, but is doing so without violating Syria's air space. Turkish officials did not rule out doing so in the future.

However, Turkey has taken on an even more ambitious task of airstrikes against both ISIS targets and Kurdish PKK targets in Syria. If I understand this correctly, Turkish warplanes will be striking at Kurdish militias in Syria, perhaps the same militias that are fighting against ISIS in Syria. This comes as Kurds in Turkey are accusing president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of allegedly helping ISIS in the fight over the Syrian city of Kobani. If Turkish warplanes are going to be striking Kurdish militias that are fighting ISIS, then those accusations are going to become much louder.

As of this week, Turkey is now embarking on an extremely dangerous course of action. Generational Dynamics predicts that the entire Mideast is headed for a major regional war, and that war seems to come much closer every week. AP and Anadolu Agency (Turkey) and Washington Post

Commodities and world trade plunge, signaling stock market decline

For the first time since the financial crisis of 2008, commodities and trade figures are signaling a warning for the global economy.

Gold has collapsed to five year lows. Copper just hit a six year low. Oil prices have had the worst price crash in 45 years. World trade volume has been declining sharply for five months.

Some analysts blame the plunge on the appreciating dollar and China's failing economy. Whatever the reason, forecasts are that the trends will continue for the rest of the year. Analysts are mixed about the consequences, but with so many declining signals, a decline in US stocks of 30-50% would not be a surprise to some.


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.18 on July 24 (WSJ)
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.18 on July 24 (WSJ)

Generational Dynamics predicts that we're headed for a global financial panic and crisis. According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (July 24) was at an astronomically high 21.18. This is far above the historical average of 14, indicating that the stock market is in a huge bubble that could burst at any time. Generational Dynamics predicts that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower. Zero Hedge and Market Watch and Bloomberg

China's stock market partially 'recovers' after destruction

As we reported several times, China's Shanghai Composite stock market index peaked on June 12, and then plunged 30% in the next four weeks. It has now recovered about 1/4th of what it lost, because of extraordinary intervention by China's government:

The "China dream" is for China to replace the United States militarily, by taking control of the Pacific and Indian Oceans, and also to do so financially, by replacing the dollar with the Chinese yuan as the global reserve currency. In order to do that, China has to prove that it can provide a world-class stock market that can operate free of government intervention.

For that objective, the last month has been a disaster. China has effectively destroyed the Shanghai stock market as a market. China has absolutely no credibility left in its ability to provide a world-class stock market.

And that's not the worst of it. Where is China going to go next? China has intervened massively to prop up an imploding bubble. China may have bought a few weeks' time, but that bubble is going to implode, wrecking the savings of millions of ordinary people, often older people, who invested their life saving in the stock market when the bubble was growing. China has a history of massive "people's rebellions" against an oppressive government. The last one was Mao's Communist Revolution that ended in 1949. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is now overdue for the next one. Quartz and Straits Times and Investors.com

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jul-15 World View -- Commodities and world trade volume plunge as China pumps stock market thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (25-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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24-Jul-15 World View -- In major reversal, Turkey will let US use Incirlik to fight ISIS in Syria

Turkey's politics become vitriolic after Suruç massacre

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Turkey's politics become vitriolic after Suruç massacre


Erdogan with his son Bilal and daughter Sümeyye (Reuters file)
Erdogan with his son Bilal and daughter Sümeyye (Reuters file)

In the fallout of Monday's terrorist attack on Suruç by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), Turkey's politics are becoming increasingly vitriolic.

Kurds are blaming President Recep Tayyip Erdogan for either supporting ISIS, or at least for not doing anything to stop them. As we wrote yesterday in Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruç, there is no credible evidence that Erdogan has been supporting ISIS, but before ISIS came into existence, he may have been providing weapons to anti-Assad forces that later became part of ISIS.

Turkey's politics have never been pleasant, but the Suruç massacre appears to have created a split between the Kurds and pro-Erdogan activists that's even more vitriolic than before.

A mainstream Turkish newspaper fired well-known newspaper columnist Kadri Gürsel on Thursday, because he sent a tweet that criticized President Recep Tayyip Erdogan. The tweet said:

"It is shameful that foreign leaders call the person who is the number one culprit of ISIL terrorism in Turkey and convey their condolences over the Suruç bombing."

Gürsel is referring to Erdogan as the "number one culprit," and the foreign leaders are Barack Obama and other leaders who called Erdogan to convey their condolences over Monday's terrorist attack on Suruç by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

It's believed by some that Gürsel was fired under orders from Erdogan, as the newspaper is headed by a close Erdogan associate. Erdogan has been infuriated by journalists who have criticized him, and he has allegedly ordered the firing of many of them.

A recently published report has claimed that Erdogan's daughter Sümeyye Erdogan has been linked to ISIS, and is currently running a 'covert' hospital exclusively to treat wounded ISIS terrorists. Erdogan issued a statement that did not directly address the specific charges, but said:

"Every day, a new one is being added to ‘perception management’ operations aimed at harming our country’s image by creating an impression of a relation between Turkey and the terrorist organization, Daesh.

Groundless claims that try to show our President Mr. Recep Tayyip Erdogan, his son Bilal Erdogan and his daughter Sümeyye Erdogan in relation with Daesh, which have been immorally released in the recent days, are part of a smear campaign conducted against Turkey and are all lies."

With many Kurds, after the Suruç massacre, blaming Erdogan for the supporting ISIS terrorists, Erdogan struck back on Thursday. He accused leaders of the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) of supporting the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) terrorists who killed two policemen in southeastern Turkey earlier in the week. In a statement, Erdogan said:

"It’s disgraceful for circles - who have openly expressed that they rely on the terror organization - to not be able to show courage to condemn and instead remain silent on the PKK’s brutal terror acts."

The HDP leadership expressed its regret over the shooting, but did not condemn the PKK. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and International Business Times

In major reversal, Turkey will let US use Incirlik to fight ISIS in Syria

In the fallout of Monday's terrorist attack on Suruç by the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), Turkey has made a major reversal, and will allow American warplanes to launch attacks against ISIS in Syria from Incirlik Air Base.

It's believed that ISIS was behind the suicide bombing in Suruç, targeting a large meeting of mostly young pro-Kurdish activists who were discussing plans to help rebuild the town of Kobani, which the Kurds had captured from ISIS in January. There were 32 dead and more than 100 others injured.

Turkey is a member of Nato, and Incirlik Air Base is a joint U.S.- Turkish installation that houses the U.S. Air Force's 39th Air Base Wing. However, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has in the past refused to permit American warplanes take off from Incirlik to fight ISIS for two reasons:

US warplanes fighting ISIS currently have to leave from Iraq or Jordan or other Arab nations. Using Incirlik would allow US warplanes to move more quickly and efficiently.

In a potentially major strategic change in the fight against ISIS in Syria, Turkey and the US will set up a 90 km no-fly zone, 40-50 km deep into Syria's territory. The no-fly zone will prevent ISIS or the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) from gaining territory in the region.

Warplanes from the Bashar al-Assad regime in Syria will not be permitted within the no-fly zone, and those which violate this will be targeted. AP and Washington Post and Hurriyet (Ankara)

Turkish soldier killed by ISIS in first gunfight across Syrian border

For the first time, there was a gunfight between Turkish soldiers and ISIS militants across the border between Turkey and Syria. Five ISIS militants approached the border and fired on Turkish soldiers. Turkey returned fire, and also used artillery to fire at suspected ISIS positions. CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jul-15 World View -- In major reversal, Turkey will let US use Incirlik to fight ISIS in Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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23-Jul-15 World View -- Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruc

Greece's parliament approves European lender reform demands

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Riots and violence across Turkey after Monday's suicide bombing in Suruç


The Suruç suicide bomber is thought to have been radicalized in this building, a teahouse called 'Islam,' which closed eight months ago, and is now an advertising office. (Hurriyet)
The Suruç suicide bomber is thought to have been radicalized in this building, a teahouse called 'Islam,' which closed eight months ago, and is now an advertising office. (Hurriyet)

Protesters rioted and clashed with police in Istanbul and other cities across Turkey in anti-government demonstrations protesting the policies of Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan, whose policies many people blame for Monday's massive terrorist attack in the town of Suruç, on Turkey's border with Syria. It's believed that the so-called Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) was behind the suicide bombing in Suruç, targeting a large meeting of mostly young pro-Kurdish activists who were discussing plans to help rebuild the town of Kobani, which the Kurds had captured from ISIS in January. There were 32 dead and more than 100 others injured.

Turkish police have identified Seyh Abdurrahman Alagöz, a 20-year-old Turkish male Kurd as the person behind the suicide bombing. Another female suspect has yet to be identified. It's believed that Alagöz went to Syria six months ago to join ISIS.

Police detained 49 protesters in multiple locations in Istanbul, and seized three hand-made cluster bombs, 203 Molotov cocktails, a pump-action rifle, a blank-firing pistol, 125 pieces of ammunition, two firework-launching platforms and 40 boxes of fireworks. Today's Zaman (Istanbul) and Hurriyet (Ankara) and Telegraph (London)

PKK kills 2 Turkish police officers in retaliation for Suruç blast

The military wing of Turkey's outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK) said on Wednesday that it had killed two Turkish police officers in a town on the Syrian border as a reprisal for Monday's suicide bombing in Suruç. According to a web site statement: "A punitive action was carried out... in revenge for the massacre in Suruç."

The killings took place in Ceylanpinar, a Turkish district that has been severely affected by fighting between rival factions across the border in Syria.

Turkey has been for decades the target of terrorist attacks by the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), although in recent years the PKK has been talking about a peace agreement in return for greater freedoms for Kurds in Turkey. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Today's Zaman (Istanbul)

Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruç

Monday's massive terrorist attack in the town of Suruç, on Turkey's border with Syria, has polarized the Turkish people, especially the Turkish Kurds, into believing that Erdogan has allowed Syria's civil war to come to Turkey.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has said many times in the past that the Kurds are more dangerous than ISIS, but Erdogan may have to change his tune after Monday's attack. According to an MP from Turkey's pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), being interviewed on the BBC:

"People are incredibly angry. They are angry that Turkey is turning into Syria. They're shocked, they're angry, and they're particularly angry at Mr. Erdogan, who is the president of Turkey, for his support to all kinds of groups in Syria, and they blame him for also supporting ISIS."

The MP responded to the statement that it's now believed that Monday's suicide bomber was a Kurd who had joined ISIS:

"Many Kurdish people join ISIS. Even in my home town, hundreds of youth went there are joined them, and definitely one needs to work on this kind of issue. It's going to get dangerous. There are so many nobodies who want to be somebody, and they [ISIS] are somehow able to recruit those people. Very openly they're doing all kinds of campaigns here, recruiting events, even in my home town, and they always even do military training in the hills around my home town. And they have all kinds of support."

The evidence given that Erdogan supports ISIS consists of his statements that the Kurds are more dangerous than ISIS, and also that Erdogan did nothing to support the Kurds in the fight in Kobani. Erdogan has furiously denied any support for ISIS, and no real evidence has been presented that he has.

The real story is probably much more nuanced.

I've been writing since 2011 that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad was a genocidal psychopath who was using torture and mass slaughter, killing innocent women and children who were peacefully protesting, to try to exterminate the Sunnis in Syria. A few months later, some occasional news stories began to appear about Sunni jihadists from other countries, from Asia to the Caucasus to North Africa, who were coming to Syria to fight al-Assad. ISIS didn't exist at that time, but I speculated that if these foreign jihadists kept arriving, then they would form a terrorist fighting force in Syria, and then return to their countries and use their terrorist skills at home.

At that time, according to analysts, Erdogan was willing to arm any group in Syria that was fighting against al-Assad. Erdogan did not believe that he was arming ISIS, since ISIS didn't exist; he believed that he was arming anti-Assad forces. As it turned out, he was arming anti-Assad forces some of which later turned into ISIS.

Erdogan's Syria policy has had the objective of regime change, removing al-Assad, with secondary objectives of defeating ISIS and of preventing the Kurds from forming any kind of Kurdistan state in Syria, because they would also demand part of Turkey for Kurdistan.

So those have the elements of Erdogan's foreign policy towards Syria, but now that policy is backfiring and falling apart. Now Turkey is threatened with terror attacks by both PKK Kurds and ISIS, the latter including ISIS Kurds. That is that Syria's war is now in Turkey, and many Kurds blame Erdogan for the rise of ISIS, while other disaffected Turkish Kurds are joining ISIS, possibly with the purpose of a war against Erdogan's government. AP and Lowy Institute (Australia)

Greece's parliament approves European lender reform demands

Greece's parliament worked deep into the night, and early on Thursday morning approved resolutions demanded by lenders as prerequisites for opening negotiations for a third bailout, for 86 billion euros.

The approved reforms will affect the courts, the civil procedure code, and the banks, causing them to adopt a regulatory system used by other European Union countries.

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras urged MPs to endorse the reforms:

"Conservative forces within Europe still insist on their plans to kick Greece out of the euro. We chose a compromise that forces us to implement a program we don’t believe in and we will implement it, because the choices we have are tough."

As a separate matter, Greece is planning for the reopening of the Athens Stock Exchange, after being closed for four weeks. However, severe restrictions on buying and selling will be in place to prevent a complete stock market crash.

Prolonged restrictive measures could lead to a downgrade by MSCI Inc. to “standalone market,” a designation that includes Jamaica, Botswana, Zimbabwe and mainland China, from emerging market. That might mean trading and prices would decline even further and Greek companies would be cut off from a crucial source of funding. Kathimerini and Bloomberg

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jul-15 World View -- Syria's war comes to Turkey after Monday's terror attack on Suruç thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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22-Jul-15 World View -- Greece's Tsipras lashes out at his own party as new vote approaches

Burundi's president Nkurunziza continues to provoke Hutu-Tutsi tensions

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Burundi's president Nkurunziza continues to provoke Hutu-Tutsi tensions


Refugees from Burundi arrive at the Nyarugusu refugee camp in western Tanzania (Reuters)
Refugees from Burundi arrive at the Nyarugusu refugee camp in western Tanzania (Reuters)

Burundi's Hutu president Pierre Nkurunziza took office in 2005 apparently won re-election on Tuesday in an election that the international community considered to be non-credible.

Burundi is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the end of a bloody, genocidal civil war, the 1994 war between Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda and Burundi. Now, all the old hatreds that gave rise to the war are being inflamed again, particularly in the younger generations. This is raising fears that the civil war will be revived in all its fury, something that can't happen in a generational Awakening era because the survivors won't permit it.

Nkurunziza is a Hutu who apparently is doing his best to stoke those old hatreds with Tutsis. He ran for a third term, in violation of the constitution, and he's responded to Tutsi protests with brutality and violence. More than 140,000 people, almost all Tutsis, have fled to neighboring countries, and are living in squalid refugee camps.

It may be that Nkurunziza is planning to copy the technique of Zimbabwe's Robert Mugabe. Mugabe is best known for his 1984 genocidal pacification campaign known as "Operation Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before the spring rain). During that campaign, accomplished with the help of Mugabe's 5th Brigade, trained by North Korea, tens of thousands of people, mostly from the Ndebele tribe, were tortured and slaughtered.

Nkurunziza is showing every sign of going down the same road as Mugabe, and planning an "Operation Gukurahundi" to torture and slaughter any from the Tutsi tribe who oppose his grab for power. Now that Nkurunziza has won an illegal third term, the new "Operation Gukurahundi" may not be far off. International Business Times and BBC and France 24

Greece's Tsipras lashes out at his own party as new vote approaches

Greece got through last week's crisis by means of a parliamentary vote on Wednesday that approved increased taxes and pension changes, reforms that prime minister Alexis Tsipras supported only because European officials were "holding a knife at my neck." And Greece was rewarded with a bridge loan that kept Greece from defaulting two days ago, and also allowed Greece's banks to reopen on the same day.

That was last week's crisis. Time to move on to this week's crisis. The European creditors are demanding a second vote by parliament, on a mix of tax hikes, market reforms and spending cuts demanded by the lenders. The plan is that this package will pass Greece's parliament today (Wednesday), and then on Friday negotiations can begin with the lenders on an 86 billion euro bailout package. The negotiations are supposed to be completed by August 20.

Many people in Tsipras's far left Syriza party are furious about the direction the country is taking. Since about 40 of the Syriza MPs abandoned Tsipras in last Wednesday's vote, Tsipras has had to reorganize by firing some Syriza ministers and appointing a minister from the ANEL Independent party, thought by some on the left to be xenophobic, and another minister from the right of center New Democratic party.

On Tuesday evening, Tsipras lashed out at his critics in the Syriza party by taking a hard line:

"Up until today I've seen reactions, I've read heroic statements but I haven't heard any alternative proposal. Syriza as a party must reflect society, must welcome the worries and expectations of tens of thousands of ordinary people who have pinned their hopes on it. ...

If some believe that an alternative leftist plan is Schäuble’s plan, or grabbing the stock of European Central Bank note, or giving IOUs to pensioners, let them explain to the Greek people."

The references are to a plan by Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble for Greece to leave the euro currency ("Grexit"), and other plans to transit to a drachma or IOU-based economy. Instead, Tsipras said that he supports "a compromise, but one which keeps us alive so we can keep on fighting." Kathimerini and BBC and Reuters

Where will Greece's 86 billion euro bailout come from?

But OK, even if all goes well in today's vote, and even if the negotiations that begin on Friday, where is the money coming from for the 86 billion euro bailout?

As long-time readers know, I've been saying for years that no solution exists to the Greece crisis. It's not that no one has been clever enough to find a solution. It's that no solution exists to be found. More and more, the paradoxes and contradictions of five years of "kicking the can down the road" are becoming apparent.

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) contributed about a third of the funding of the two previous bailouts in 2010 and 2012, but threw Europe under the bus last week by saying that the IMF would not participate in the third bailout unless the Europeans agree to write off part of Greece's debt -- something that German Chancellor Angela Merkel, among others, has said will not happen.

And so, given that contradiction, there will have to be some imaginative fudging to find a way to provide the money for the next bailout.

I wrote a couple of times in the past that it was my personal belief (not a Generational Dynamics prediction) that, one way or another, Greece would remain in the eurozone. That was before the repeated convulsive crises of the last few weeks that brought Greece several times right to the edge of the Grexit cliff.

But now it's even less likely that Greece will leave the eurozone. After going through the past few horrendous weeks of pain, it's almost unthinkable to throw it all away. For that reason, there's little doubt that a way will be found to provide that next bailout. It's really not that hard. Just find somebody willing to pay for it. Kathimerini and Politico Europe

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jul-15 World View -- Greece's Tsipras lashes out at his own party as new vote approaches thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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21-Jul-15 World View -- Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea

Kurds blame Erdogan for ISIS terrorist attack in southeastern Turkey

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Kurds blame Erdogan for ISIS terrorist attack in southeastern Turkey


Anti-Erdogan demonstrators in Taksim Square in Istanbul on Monday (Reuters)
Anti-Erdogan demonstrators in Taksim Square in Istanbul on Monday (Reuters)

A massive terrorist explosion in southeastern Turkey on Monday killed 31 and wounded hundreds. It's believed that it was triggered by an 18-year-old female suicide bomber.

It occurred in the town of Suruç, which is on the border with Syria, just across the border to the Syrian town of Kobani.

In January, Kurdish militias scored a major victory over the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) by driving all ISIS forces out of Kobani.

Because of the importance of Kobani, ISIS has been trying to retake the town since then. A month ago, ISIS killed dozens of Kurds, mostly civilians, in a brutal attack on Kobani. The ISIS militants disguised themselves in Kurdish YPG uniforms, so they were undetected, until they opened fire. President Recep Tayyip Erdogan by some opposition politicians, especially from the opposition pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP), of hating the Kurds and of helping ISIS launch the attack agains the Kurds in Kobani. Erdogan was outraged, and said that HDP politicians "are carrying out a slander and black propaganda campaign in the wake of this nefarious attack."

The bomb attack in Suruç targeted a large meeting of pro-Kurdish activists who were discussing plans to help rebuild the town of Kobani. They had been chanting slogans and were holding a large banner with the words "We defended it together, we are building it together," when the suicide bomber exploded her load.

HDP party politicians condemned Erdogan for not taking enough steps to prevent terrorism on Turkish soil. On Monday, there were demonstrations in Istanbul by protesters who blamed the government for the ISIS suicide bombing. Some activists chanted slogans against Erdogan and the ruling AK Party, including: "Murderer ISIS, collaborator Erdogan and AKP." Police in Istanbul fired teargas and water cannon when the demonstration turned violent. Hurriyet (Ankara) and Zaman (Istanbul) and Daily Mail (London)

Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea

With China building illegal artificial islands in the South China Sea, the Philippines government is retaliating by reinforcing a naval vessel, the BRP Sierra Madre, that was beached on Second Thomas Shoal in 1999. In order to challenge China's claims of sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, including regions that had belonged to other countries for centuries, the Philippines government has kept the beached ship staffed with a small group of marines.

This has gone on for years, and has infuriated the Chinese. There are at least China coast guard cutters nearby constantly, to interdict any resupply attempts to the ship. Any supplies or replacement personnel can arrive only by running past China's blockade.

For years, the beached ship has kept a low profile, but in view of China's increasingly aggressive and hostile moves, the Philippines government is beginning to provide more "maintenance" to the vessel, with cement, welding tools and other reinforcing materials brought past the Chinese blockade.

China's foreign ministry accused the Philippines of illegal activities, repeating that the entire South China Sea is China's sovereign territory:

"China strongly protests and firmly opposes such an act. ...

The relevant activity fully exposed the Philippines’ hypocrisy and that it is a double dealer. It once again proved that the Philippines is truly a troublemaker and rule-breaker in the region."

The Philippines government is also restoring the former US naval facility in Subic Bay to be a full-fledged military base, for the first time since the US Navy was thrown out from the base. The Philippines will station new fighter jets and two frigates early next year. US Naval Institute and AFP and Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jul-15 World View -- Philippines reinforces grounded ship to challenge China in South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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20-Jul-15 World View -- Possible rapprochement in the works between Hamas and Saudi Arabia

Greece's banks to reopen at start of another stormy week

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Car bombs target Hamas and Islamic Jihad in Gaza


One of five cars in Gaza blown up by explosions in Gaza early Sunday morning (AFP)
One of five cars in Gaza blown up by explosions in Gaza early Sunday morning (AFP)

There were five explosions in Gaza on Sunday from bombs placed underneath five cars parked in front of their owners' homes. The explosions were evidently coordinated, as they occurred almost simultaneously. There were no reports of serious injuries. The cars belonged to members of the armed branches of two different militant groups in Gaza, Hamas and Islamic Jihad. The two groups issued a joint statement on Sunday saying:

"The culprits of the violence are in the camp of traitors. ...

Guilty hands are attempting to attack the resistance by blowing up its fighters' vehicles, which only serves the occupier and its objectives."

The "occupier" is Israel. The "resistance" are Hamas and Islamic Jihad.

The statement is ironic because has reportedly been in peace talks with Israel for a five year truce while, on the other hand, Hamas has launched a crackdown on Salafist groups in Gaza, with as many as 100 members or supporters arrested and jailed.

It's believed that the bombs were placed by one of the smaller militant groups in Gaza that have declared allegiance to ISIS. AP and Daily Mail (London)

Possible rapprochement in the works between Hamas and Saudi Arabia

The increasing influence of Iran through last week's nuclear agreement with the West and of the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) are causing further shifts in Mideast relationships. Relations between Hamas and Saudi Arabia have been particularly strained because of Hamas's close relationship with Iran and because Saudi Arabia sided with the Palestinian Authority in its conflicts with Hamas.

However, a meeting of Friday between Hamas chief Khaled Meshaal and Saudi Arabia's new king Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud is being viewed as a possible "game changer" in the relationship between the two. According to a Hamas official, Salah al-Bardawil, "We sensed that there is a readiness in Saudi Arabia to support the Palestinian cause."

It's thought that the rapprochement signals that Hamas has decided to distance itself from Iran, and that the Saudis will help rebuild Gaza, which is still devastated from last summer's 60 day war with Israel.

As we wrote yesterday in "19-Jul-15 World View -- Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal", the Iran nuclear deal is forcing yet another realignment in the Arab world, as it deteriorates into war. Events seem to be moving more quickly in recent weeks. Jerusalem Post and Reuters

Greece's banks to reopen at start of another stormy week

The European lenders have approved a bridge loan for Greece, to prevent bankruptcy for a few weeks, and are providing liquidity so that Greece's banks can reopen on Monday for the first time in three weeks. Greek citizens have been restricted to ATM withdrawals of only 60 euros per day, but now there'll be a small lightening of the rules: They will be permitted to take an entire week's withdrawals -- 420 euros -- in a single day, so they won't have to stand in line at the ATM every day.

It'll be anything but smooth sailing this week. Austerity measures are being imposed on Greece. But these are the same kinds of austerity measures that the Greek people voted down in a referendum, and they're the measures that prime minister Alexis Tsipras said that he doesn't believe in, but had to accept because the European lenders were "holding a knife at my neck."

In fact, nobody believes any more that the austerity measures will work. Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is calling for a temporary "Grexit" -- for Greece to leave the eurozone and use a different currency for up to five years. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel has completely ruled out any Grexit, and she's apparently pushing for a new 86 billion euro bailout for Greece, which will kick the can down the road for a while. In the past she's been adamantly opposed to forgiving any part of Greece's debt, but she's indicated a willingness to consider restructuring the Greek debt in the fall, possibly by extending the payment schedule out for decades. Kathimerini and Bloomberg

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jul-15 World View -- Possible rapprochement in the works between Hamas and Saudi Arabia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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19-Jul-15 World View -- Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal

The Arab world is disintegrating into war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal


President Barack Obama and Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei (AFP)
President Barack Obama and Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei (AFP)

I like to reference Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable insights into what's going on, but it's written from Israel's point of view, and sometimes gets things wrong. This week's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber) contains an analysis of the behind the scenes activities that led to the Iran nuclear deal:

Generally, the Debka view is consistent with my article "15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal", including the fact that Iran is becoming America's ally, and the Sunni Arabs will America's enemy. Debka

The Arab world is disintegrating into war

The same Debka newsletter points out that the number of conflicts in the Arab world is larger than the number of Arab nations involved in the conflicts:

On the other hand, the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Oman have lined up behind the Iran nuclear deal and have maintained good relations with Iran. In particular, the UAE expects to gain from the Iran's post-sanctions import and export trade by having Dubai become the biggest free port in the Gulf.

Debka says that the Arab governments are, like Israel, in a state of disarray after being swept aside by the Iran deal, and in a state of gloom over all the wars going on. The Arab nations need to focus on creating a new Arab regional structure to replace the outdated Arab League.

As we've been saying for many years, the Mideast is headed for a major regional ethnic and sectarian war with 100% certainty, and events seem to bring that war closer every week. This is particularly true of last week's major event, the Iran nuclear deal.

It's impossible to predict the sequence of political events that will lead to this regional war, but the concept of "a new Arab regional structure" suggests one possibility. My expectation is that, sooner or later, the Arab states will unite with ISIS to fight Iran, Syria and Hezbollah, and this new Arab regional structure may be the political mechanism that brings all these Sunni and Arab elements together to fight Iran. Debka

Saudi Arabia conducts major anti-terrorism sweep against ISIS

In a major anti-terrorism sweep across the country, Saudi Arabia has arrested 431 people believed to belong to ISIS cells, "as part of a scheme managed from troubled areas abroad and aimed at inciting sectarian strife and chaos." According to the Saudi statement statement:

"The number of arrested to date was 431 ... detainees, most of them citizens, as well as participants holding other nationalities including Yemeni, Egyptian, Syrian, Jordanian, Algerian, Nigerian, Chadian, and unidentified others.

What combines these cells (which were subjected to security restrictions by not making direct contacts among themselves) is the belonging to the terrorist ISIS organization in terms of the adoption of thought, takfir of society and bloodshed, and then exchanging roles to implement the plans and objectives dictated from abroad."

There have been several terrorist attacks on Shia mosques in eastern Saudi Arabia, and the purpose of the announcement in part was to make it clear to the Shia's in the east that the government is doing something. The Saudis claim that they've thwarted six additional planned attacks on Shia mosques.

The fact that over 400 people have been arrested gives an idea of the scale of threat that the Saudis face in ISIS. Saudi Press Agency and AP and Arab News

Massive bomb attack in Iraq market kills over 130

ISIS has claimed responsibility for a massive bomb attack in a crowded open-air market in Khan Bani Saad, a mostly Shia town 20 miles northeast of Baghdad. The death toll is 130 and climbing, making it the biggest ISIS civilian terror attack in the country.

A man in a truck pulled up to the marketplace in the extreme summer heat and said he was selling ice at a discount to celebrate the end of Ramadan. He lured over 100 people to the truck, and the detonated at least one ton of explosives.

Khan Bani Saad is in Diyala province, which borders Iran. It's the only province in Iraq where Iranian jets are known to have conducted airstrikes against ISIS earlier this year. CNN and AP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Jul-15 World View -- Behind the scenes in the Iran nuclear deal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (19-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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18-Jul-15 World View -- China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense'

European officials prepare to negotiate Greece's next bailout

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense'


Anti-government rally in Tokyo on Friday (AFP)
Anti-government rally in Tokyo on Friday (AFP)

As we reported two days ago, Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe is pushing through the parliament a law that would reinterpret the clause in Japan's "pacifist" constitution that the military could be used only in Japan's self-defense to include "collective self-defense," which would allow Japan to use the military in defense of an ally anywhere in the world. For example, if an American warship were attacked by China near Japanese waters, then Japan would be prohibited from defending it, unless collective self-defense were allowed.

The reinterpretation is unpopular in Japan according to polls, and there have been large public demonstrations opposing it. Those who oppose it say that the self-defense clause was part of a constitution that was wonderful gift given by the United States to Japan at the end of World War II, and that it should not be changed. However, Abe has expressed the view that the constitution is a humiliation imposed on Japan by its American conquerors.

The reinterpretation is being triggered by the rise and increasing belligerence of China's military. The United States has pressured Abe to make the reinterpretation, saying that it's important for the security of Japan itself.

Not surprisingly, Chinese officials are outraged. China was invaded by Japan prior to World War II, and China uses that invasion to justify its own massive military buildup, while at the same time using it to condemn any military actions by Japan. China is blasting the reinterpretation as a "nightmare scenario," and the Foreign Ministry issued a statement saying:

"[The reinterpretation is] an unprecedented move since the Second World War ... [which] may lead to significant changes in Japan’s military and security policies. It is fully justified to ask if Japan is going to give up its exclusively defense-oriented policy or change the path of peaceful development that has been long pursued after the Second World War."

The Chinese News Service was considerably more dramatic and blunt:

"By fatally slashing Japan's seven decades of pacifism, like a Shogun's shoulder to waist "kesagiri" finishing move, in the very year marking the 70th anniversary of the end of World War II, Prime Minister Shinzo Abe on Thursday realized his dream of abandoning postwar order and switching his country back into war mode.

Despite majority of population's opposition, the country's ruling coalition led by the historical revisionist rammed through a series of controversial security bills in Japan's all-powerful lower house Thursday, marking a backward move meaning the historically bloodied "samurai sword of Japan" could once again be wielded by its troops in every corner of the world."

I checked out the meaning of "kesagiri," and it's described as follows: The swordsman cuts his opponent diagonally from the opponents' right armpit to his left shoulder, then reverses the blade and cuts downward from opponents left shoulder to his right hip. After that, the swordsman shakes the blood off the blade and sheaths his sword.

This sounds like something that Sun Tzu, the author of the ancient Chinese classic The Art of War, might approve of. The Diplomat and Chinese News Service and Akban School of Martial Arts

European officials prepare to negotiate Greece's next bailout

On Friday, Germany's parliament overwhelmingly approved the 7 billion euro bridge loan so that Greece won't go bankrupt in the next two or three weeks.

Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble is being widely identified as the bad guy in the negotiations, the hardliner who's making everyone suffer, particularly the Greeks. According to a dramatic but scathing article in the left wing periodical Der Spiegel:

"He then inhaled, flashing a pugnacious smile and turned his wheelchair around. He then prepared for battle of a kind he had never before fought in his long political career -- a battle against the Greek government, against American economists, against large swathes of European public opinion and also, to some extent, against the chancellor herself.

Had it been up to Schäuble, Germany would have shown the Greeks the euro-zone door long ago. His problem, however, is that the chancellor doesn't share this sentiment. Merkel rejects his insistence because she doesn't want to go down in history as the government leader responsible for the disintegration of Europe.

If it were any other minister that had so persistently refused to endorse her line, she would likely have got rid of him long ago. But she can't do that with Schäuble. His hard line is precisely what makes him so popular among the Germans."

So apparently it's not just Schäuble who's the bad guy. It's all those Germans who like Schäuble's hard line.

At any rate, the bridge loan has been OK'ed, and the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) for the banks has been OK'ed, and so Greece won't go bankrupt next week, and Greece's banks may or may not reopen next week.

You thought that the hard part was over, but that was all the easy part. Now the hard part really starts.

This crisis has been going on for five years. There have been two previous bailouts, in 2010 and 2012, totaling 240 billion euros. Now negotiations are supposed to begin on a third bailout, for 80 billion euros. The bailout money has been supplied by three institutions -- -- the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), formerly known as the "Troika".

The problem now is that the IMF will not participate in the third bailout, because the debt is unsustainable. The Europeans must be willing to write off a substantial portion of Greece's debt before the IMF will participate in a new bailout. But German Chancellor Angela Merkel has said that writing off any portion of the debt is a red line that will not be crossed.

To add to the fun, there's even another deadline that's been set: European officials are saying that a new Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) must be signed by August 10 between Greece and the Troika.

So, here we go! Prepare yourself for another few weeks of daily crises. Der Spiegel and AFP and Irish Times

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Jul-15 World View -- China reacts harshly to Japan's plans for 'collective self-defense' thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (18-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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17-Jul-15 World View -- ISIS-linked terrorists sink Egyptian navy ship amid Suez Canal expansion

Both Greece and Germany in political disarray after IMF bailout statement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

ISIS-linked terrorists sink Egyptian navy ship


Convoy of ships passing through Suez Canal
Convoy of ships passing through Suez Canal

The ISIS-linked "Sinai Province" terrorist group sank an Egyptian navy ship in the Mediterranean Sea near Gaza and Sinai. They claim to have fired a rocket at the ship, setting it on fire and sinking. Some news reports confirm this, but the Egyptian military says that there was only an exchange of gunfire that caused the ship to catch on fire.

The attack comes just two weeks after Egypt said it was in a 'state of war' in northern Sinai, following July 1 when the same group conducted simultaneous coordinated terror attacks at 15 different locations in Sinai. According to Egyptian officials, at least 300 militants launched that offensive, of whom 100 were killed. The military said that 17 soldiers had been killed, but other reports put the death toll much higher.

The new attack appears to be a significant escalation by terrorists linked to the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). Daily Star (Beirut) and Al Ahram (Cairo)

Attack on Egypt's navy boat comes amid plans for Suez Canal expansion

What Egyptian officials most fear is a terrorist attack on a commercial vessel in the Suez Canal that forces the canal to close for a period of time. Last month, Egyptian authorities arrested 13 Muslim Brotherhood suspected of planting bombs around the canal. Last year there was a failed RPG (rocket-propelled grenade attack) on a vessel. If the attack had succeeded in hitting the bunker of a tanker, the canal would have been closed for a week for environmental cleanup.

Early in August, Egypt will announce the completion of a Suez Canal expansion project. The expansion will be second channel along a portion of the canal, making two-way traffic possible in that portion. This will reduce the average transit time of vessels from 18 hours to 11 hours, and it will increase the number of vessels transiting the canal each day from 49 to 97.

There's another reason for the Suez Canal expansion project, a somewhat ironic one. The Muslim Brotherhood was involved in the original construction of the canal in 1936 giving them a rare understanding of the waterway and one they exploited to make the RPG attack. So the expansion project is altering the infrastructure, including tunnels, so the Brotherhood can’t use its knowledge of its inner workings to attack the canal. [Correction: This paragraph was sourced from the Journal of Commerce article linked below, but it's not correct as the Suez Canal was constructed between 1859 and 1869.](Paragraph modified. 17-Jul)

Helenic Shipping News and Journal of Commerce

Both Greece and Germany in political disarray after IMF bailout statement

As I wrote yesterday, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has essentially thrown Europe under the bus, by declaring that Greece's debt is "unsustainable," and that the IMF therefore could not participate in a third bailout, unless the Europeans forgive and write off a large part of Greece's existing debt. That IMF statement thrown European negotiations over a new 80 billion euro bailout for Greece into disarray.

It focused the mind of Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras. Greece's economy is in desperate straits, with conditions as bad as the 1930s Great Depression. The average Greek is 40% poorer than five years ago. The unemployment rate is 25%, with youth unemployment at 50%. Tsipras realized that his and Greece's situation was so desperate that he had to capitulate and accept whatever deal the Eurogroup offered it. But that also triggered the resignation of several of Tsipras's ministers, especially after a third of the MPs Tsipras's own far left Syriza party deserted him in the final vote. The result is that Tsipras will have to make widespread changes to his government, assuming his government can survive.

The IMF statement also gave more ammunition to Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble, who has taken a hard line against simply bailing Greece out again. His position, which he repeated on Thursday, is that voters in Germany and some other eurozone countries will not accept reducing Greece's outstanding debt, either by forgiving part of it or by extending the payments out for decades, since the voters will see that as rewarding Greece's profligacy. The concern is that other countries, such as Italy, Spain, Portugal or even France, will get into trouble some day, and also demand that their debt be written off.

Schäuble claims that the only way to save the euro is to give Greece a "time out" for up to five years, meaning that Greece will return to the drachma or an IOU-based currency until the economy stabilizes, and then can return to the euro.

German Chancellor Angela Merkel is opposing any "time out" for Greece, and this has resulted in a split between Merkel and Schäuble, and also a split in Merkel's conservative party, the Christian Democratic Union (CDU).

Just as Tsipras needed MPs from opposition parties to get the parliament to accept the Eurogroup deal on Wednesday, Merkel on Friday is expected to depend on votes from opposition parties to pass the approval of a bridge loan to prevent Greece from defaulting next week. The bridge loan of 7 billion euros is needed by Monday to allow Greece to make debt repayments to the IMF and the European Central Bank (ECB). The German parliament is expected to approve the bridge loan on Friday.

Greece got some additional good news on Thursday, when the ECB announced that it will again provide a limited amount of Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA), to last for a week. Greece's banks have been closed for two weeks now, and this will permit them to reopen next week. However, there apparently will still be a limit of 60 euros per day in ATM withdrawals.

Once Monday arrives, the crisis will continue with chaotic negotiations over the new 80 billion euro bailout for Greece. But after the IMF has thrown Europe under the bus, and after Schäuble has said Greece has to have a "time out," you should expect the shouting to continue. It's not clear to me personally how it makes sense to negotiate a new bailout when the IMF is like the child who yelled that "the Emperor is naked," leaving everyone else no choice but to face reality. Kathimerini and Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jul-15 World View -- ISIS-linked terrorists sink Egyptian navy ship amid Suez Canal expansion thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (17-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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16-Jul-15 World View -- Mexico's first 'historic' attempt to re-privatize oil industry flops

Japan's Shinzo Abe pushes 'collective defense' bill for vote

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greece approves harsh reforms as IMF throws Europe under the bus


Alexis Tsipras addressing parliament on Wednesday
Alexis Tsipras addressing parliament on Wednesday

After a day of violence in the streets outside Greece's parliament, and bitter screaming and shouting inside the parliament, Greece's parliament passed a set of harsh reforms that prime minister Alexis Tsipras said that he's supporting only because European officials were "holding a knife at my neck."

The reforms included increased taxes and pension reforms that were harsher than the reforms that voters rejected ten days ago in a national referendum. A total of 229 MPs voted for the reforms, while 64 voted against. The vote was overwhelmingly in favor of the reforms only because Tsipras formed a coalition with opposition parties. Of the MPs in Tsipras's far left Syriza party, 32 voted against the reforms, and 6 abstained. Some of Tsipra's ministers have been forced to resign with the result that the Syriza party may no longer exist, and Tsipras may have to scramble to stay in power. However, Tsipras has been quoted as saying that he will not resign.

Greece's communist party led labor union street riots in Syntagma (Constitution) Square outside the parliament building. Protesters were throwing rocks and Molotov cocktails at police, who were firing tear gas at the protesters.

With Greece having fulfilled the demands of the Eurogroup, the Eurogroup can now go ahead and approve by Monday a 6 billion euro bridge loan that will allow Greece to avoid bankruptcy for a few weeks. After that, negotiations can begin on the terms of an entirely new bailout loan, for 86 billion euros.

However, this all comes as the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has essentially thrown Europe under the bus, by saying that it will not participate in the new bailout loan, which would mean that the eurozone would have to provide the loan entirely by itself.

The reason for the IMF decision was that the IMF had done the math and determined that Greece's debt was "not sustainable." This will be no surprise to regular readers, as I've been saying for years that no solution exists to Greece's debt crisis. However, it is a surprise that someone official is finally saying so.

The IMF is saying that the Europeans must make the debt sustainable, and so they must write off a significant portion of the debt, or else stretch out the repayments for several decades, meaning in effect that it will never be paid off. Germany, Finland and the Baltic states oppose writing off any portion of the debt.

In a related note, CNBC economist Steve Liesman has just returned from a trip to Germany. He said that when you speak to Germans about the situation, you begin to sympathize with them not wanting to keep bailing Greece out over and over. He said that many Germans believe that Greeks developed a culture of not paying taxes because they were governed by the Turkish Ottomans for four centuries, and didn't want to pay taxes to the Ottomans. With a culture of not paying taxes, there's no point in continuing to bail them out. Independent (London) and Kathimerini and AFP

Japan's Shinzo Abe pushes 'collective defense' bill for vote

Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe is promising to better his explain the terms of his security bills, amid large demonstrations shouted opposition to the bills outside the parliament building, while opposition lawmakers yelled and waved signs in frustration.

Since the end of World War II, Japan has had a "pacifist" constitution, prohibiting any military action except in response to a direct attack on Japan itself. Shinzo Abe has stated that he wants to remove this restriction from the constitution, but opposition would prevent him from doing so.

So he's made a decision to "reinterpret" the self-defense clause of the constitution to allow for what is called "collective self-defense." I discussed this issue in detail in "5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan".

Under international law, if a nation's ally is attacked by another country, then the nation may use its armed forces in defense of its ally. This is known as "collective self-defense," and it particularly can be invoked by either of two countries that have a mutual defense agreement, such as the mutual defense agreement signed by Japan and the United States. However, many people in Japan interpret the constitution's self-defense restriction to mean that collective self-defense is prohibited in Japan's constitution. Abe's reinterpretation makes collective self-defense possible, but has generated heated opposition.

On Wednesday, Abe's Liberal Democratic Party (LDP) members were able to cut off debate in a key committee. The security bill would then be debated in the lower and upper house before it becomes law. AFP and Shingetsu News Agency (Japan)

Mexico's first 'historic' attempt to re-privatize oil industry flops

Mexico on Wednesday attempted to auction off the rights to drill for oil in 14 different locations ("exploration blocks") in the Gulf of Mexico. However, oil companies were definitely unenthusiastic, as the 14 were "shallow water" blocks that had previously been drilled for decades by Mexico's government-run oil monopoly, Pemex. As a result, major oil companies, such as Exxon Mobil Corp., Chevron Corp. and Total SA, refused to participate, and only two of the 14 blocks were actually auctioned off, to a consortium of smaller companies.

Mexico nationalized its entire oil industry in 1938, following a series of labor disputes and crippling national strikes by labor unions demanding greater pay, amid political claims that the foreign oil companies were stripping Mexico of its national resources, with almost no financial benefit to Mexicans. The oil companies retaliated by organizing an international boycott of Mexican goods, including Mexican oil. With the start of World War II, the boycotts were resolved. But the nationalization became a symbol of great national pride and liberation from American imperialism. The calendar date of March 18th, 1938, is remembered throughout the country as the day of "Expropiación Petrolera" (Oil Expropriation). All oil assets were turned over to a state-owned monopoly called Petróleos Mexicanos, today called Pemex. The nationalizing also served as a model for other countries to subsequently nationalize their own oil industries.

As always happens with state monopolies, Pemex has been plagued with corruption. In recent years, oil production has plummeted, and it's been increasingly clear that Pemex was top-heavy with bureaucracy, and lacked the expertise to improve production. Mexico had been the world world's fifth bigger oil produced, but dropped to tenth.

Despite opposition from most Mexicans, Mexico's president Enrique Peña Nieto fought for a change in the constitution and laws to re-privatize the energy industry. In 2013, 75 years after the nationalization, Nieto announced the auctions, now being referred to as "historic."

Unfortunately, Nieto may have waited too long. Since 2013, oil prices have fallen over 50%, making much oil exploration uneconomic. Even Pemex decided not to bid in Wednesday's auction.

There will be more auctions later this year, but it's becoming clear that Nieto has to offer much more favorable financial terms to the oil companies if he wants the auctions to succeed, and any such changes will bring stiff domestic opposition. Bloomberg and MexOnline and Forbes and Dallas News

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jul-15 World View -- Mexico's first 'historic' attempt to re-privatize oil industry flops thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (16-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal

Generational Dynamics view of Iran nuclear deal

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Arab views of Iran nuclear deal


Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a vocal critic of the Iran nuclear deal (Politico)
Saudi Deputy Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, a vocal critic of the Iran nuclear deal (Politico)

Media from Saudi Arabia and other Arab countries were completely silent on Tuesday, following the announcement of the Iran nuclear deal. According to one Israeli analyst: "There’s an [Arab] sense of disappointment mixed with shock. These countries, and especially Saudi Arabia, are trying to come to terms with the materialization of their worst fears."

There was a brief statement from the Saudi Press Agency:

"The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia has always believed in the importance of reaching a deal regarding Iran's nuclear program that ensures preventing Iran from obtaining nuclear weapons and at the same time includes a specific, strict and permanent mechanism for inspecting all sites - including military ones - along with a mechanism for rapidly and effectively re-imposing sanctions in case Iran violates the deal, an official source said in a statement following the nuclear deal between Iran and the P5+1 group. ...

Under the nuclear deal, Iran has to use its resources in serving its internal development and improving the conditions of the Iranian people, rather than using these resources in destabilizing the region which is an act that will be strictly faced by the region's countries."

The statement emphasizes two major areas of Arab concern: That Iran may develop a nuclear weapon for use on the Arabs, and that Iran will use the money from lifting sanctions to further destabilize the region.

Frank Gardner, the BBC security correspondent, listed three major area of concerns for Arabs:

The Saudis recall that under the Shah of Iran, prior to the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, Iran was the big US ally in the Middle East. After 1979, the Saudis became the big ally, and now Iran is returning to its prior role.

According to Gardner: "What I fear is that Sunni hardliners will say, right, OK, we need to now support Sunni extremists in the Middle East, as a bulwark against Shia extremists and Shia militias, which will extend and prolong the wars and conflicts in Iraq and Syria." Saudi Press Agency and Times of Israel

Another Arab view of Iran's nuclear deal

Marwan Bishara is the senior political analyst for the Qatar-based al-Jazeera, and he appears on both the English and Arabic channels. He's a good analyst, though he's consistent with Qatar's policies in that he's stridently anti-American, anti-Israeli, and anti-Palestinian Authority, while he's pro-Hamas. Thus, he provides a good overview of Arab opinion (my transcription):

"It's important for everyone, and I'll add that it will affect everything in the Middle East, and everything in terms of western relations to the Middle East, in so many ways.

Everything from the energy markets to the arms race - the economic well-being of citizens in Iran to the elections in the United States, from security in Saudi Arabia and the Gulf region, to the war in Yemen. from ISIS, and the developments in Iraq and Syria, to what's going on in Israel, Lebanon, Palestine, Egypt, North Africa, and so forth.

So I think probably every aspect of the political strategic life of the Middle East region will change, and the world's approach to the Middle East region will change with it."

BBC correspondent Frank Gardner, quoted above, said that a Saudi concern is that Iran will replace Saudi Arabia as America's big strategic partner. Bishara expressed the same concern in a more colorful way:

"My idea is that we're going to be seeing slowly the phasing out of Iran as the bogeyman and the phasing in of ISIS.

For our viewers around the world, it's good to remind everyone that for the last 5 or 6 decades, every 10 years, Washington and the West in general have had a bogeyman in the region. So in '58 it was Nasser of Egypt, in '68 it was Yasser Arafat of Palestine, '78 it was Ayatollah Khomeni, in '88 it was Saddam Hussein, in '98 it was Osama Bin Laden, back in 2009 it was again Iran's Ahmadinejad, and now we're going to al-Baghdadi and ISIS.

The Saudis and the rest of the Arab world in general are probably happy that Iran's nuclear program has been verifiably limited to civilian development. But everyone is worried about what the rest of the deal means in terms of a strategic opening for Iran."

Bishara's colorful description doesn't have all the dates right, but it expresses the view that the "bogeyman" target will move from Iran to ISIS, and implies that, at the same time, Iran will be the US partner, while the Saudis may be blamed for ISIS.

What's most interesting about Bishara statements is that he foresees major changes throughout the Mideast because of the Iran nuclear deal. He doesn't detail what those changes are, but it's easy to guess what he means: Iran will use the billions of dollars that Iran will now receive, to worsen the wars in Yemen, as well as the conflicts in Syria and Iraq; Iran will support terrorist organizations throughout the region, from North Africa to Bahrain. Bishara sees these and other changes as having major effects in the Mideast, far broader than anyone is saying. Politico and DPA

Generational Dynamics view of Iran nuclear deal

As long-time readers know, I've been saying for almost ten years that Iran would be our ally in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war. This has actually been pretty obvious since the early 2000s, when Iranian college students were holding pro-West and pro-American demonstrations. Those college students are today increasingly in positions of power.

Ten years ago, the prediction seemed preposterous to most people, but we've all watched it coming true in the last couple of years, as those college students are now in their 30s. The Iran nuclear deal is a big step forward in that prediction, for the reasons outlined above by Frank Gardner and Marwan Bishara.

In recent weeks, as it's becoming more and more apparent that the Generational Dynamics analyses are coming to pass, I've been getting a lot more questions. I've been discussing these issues at length for years, but here's a summary:

Putting all this together, America will be allied with India, Iran, and Russia against China, Pakistan, and the Sunni Arab states.

So I agree with Marwan Bishara when he says that there will be massive changes throughout the Mideast following the Iran nuclear deal, from regime change in Iran to bigger sectarian Sunni-Shia conflicts throughout the region, finally ending up in all-out war.

Congratulations to my readers for sticking with all this

Every once in a while I receive a very nice e-mail message, and would like to share it with everyone:

"Every few months I feel compelled to write you. First and foremost I thank you for your HARD WORK. I see what you do collecting, sorting, packaging and sending out a concise snapshot of what's really going on in the world. I don't waste my time watching news on television since they are always chasing the cheap and easy stories that come in the form of press releases from the White House. Because of your e-mails, I knew about Syria two years before ABC, NBC, or CBS talked about what was going on. Just now, people are taking notice of China's financial problems."

The writer is one of the almost 500 people who receive the daily Generational Dynamics World View article by subscribing to the daily e-mail message. Others subscribe to the RSS Feed. Some tens of thousands read it on the Generational Dynamics web site or the Breitbart National Security web site.

I'd also like to congratulate you, Dear Reader, for sticking with this. It's not easy going to read these articles, since the news isn't good. I can tell you that there are many people who couldn't find Iran on a map if their lives depended on it, and who go to their happy places when someone gives them bad news. You, Dear Reader, are definitely not in that category.

The American mainstream media just slavishly prints whatever the White House tells them to print, and so it's almost always good news, even if it almost always turns out to be wrong. But I issued a challenge in 2005 to anyone to find any web site, any politician, any analyst, or any journalist that has a more successful predictive record than my web site. Several people have taken up that challenge, but none has succeeded because no such web site or politician or journalist exists. The Generational Dynamics methodology is a major breakthrough in analyzing and relating historical events to current events, and its predictions have been almost 100% correct over 12 years.

So I hope that you will continue reading the daily World View articles, and that you will use the information to take whatever actions you can to protect yourself, your family, your community and your nation. That's the only thing that can make this effort worthwhile.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jul-15 World View -- Arab views of Iran nuclear deal thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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14-Jul-15 World View -- China cracks down on 'peizi' or 'fund-matching' stock market businesses

Emotions running high over Eurogroup ultimatum to Greece

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Thousands die in sectarian herder-farmer clashes in Nigeria


Herd of African cattle (AFP)
Herd of African cattle (AFP)

Boko Haram violence in Nigeria has left over 600 dead in the last six weeks. Since Boko Haram began operating in 2002 they have caused over 13,000 deaths.

And yet, Boko Haram is not the only source of violence in Nigeria. What has been going on for years is sectarian violence between Muslims and Christians. Much of the sectarian violence occurs in Jos, in the Plateau region in central Nigeria.

Jos is in the middle of Nigeria, right on the fault line between Muslims who live in the north and Christians who live in the south.

The northern part of Nigeria is mostly Muslim, because of centuries of migration from the Maghreb, the region in northern Africa that was conquered by Arab Muslims in the centuries following the death of Mohammed.

The southern part of Nigeria, especially around the Port Harcourt area, is predominantly Christian, following centuries of colonization by the Europeans, taking advantage of opportunities for mining and the slave trade. Over time, many of the southern tribes were converted to Christianity.

In the middle of Nigeria is the city of Jos, heavily populated by both Muslims and Christians. There are frequent really horrific attacks by Muslim gangs against Christians, and by Christian gangs against Muslims.

Although these are nominally secular attacks, religion is not the core reason for the attacks. The Christians are almost all farming tribes that settled long ago. In the last few decades, Muslim nomadic Fulani cattle herders from the north have been moving south looking for new pastures and water for their herds.

Battles between farmers and herders occur in country after country, as I've described many times in Central African Republic, Rwanda, Sudan, and even America in the 1800s. The farmers accuse the herders of letting the cattle either their crops, while the herders accuse the farmers of planting on land that's meant for grazing. If the farmers put up fences, then the herders knock them down.

In one refugee camp in Wende, south of Jos, there are thousands of people who have lost their homes and become "Internally Displaced People" (IDPs) because of clashes between herders and farmers. Strategy Page and All Africa and All Africa (2-Jul)

Emotions running high over Eurogroup ultimatum to Greece

Many citizens of Greece are accepting the demands that the Eurogroup is making of Greece in return for bailout money, while others are furious, feeling that they've been betrayed and sold out by prime minister Alexis Tsipras, who agreed to demands that were harsher than the ones that had been rejected just a week earlier in a nationwide referendum.

There are big disagreements by analysts about the demands that the Eurogroup has put on Greece before any new bailout money can be provided. If Greece's parliament passes the first round of laws Wednesday, then they will receive a bridge loan that will allow the banks to re-open and keep Greece from defaulting. Most analysts are expecting parliamentary approval on Wednesday, as Tsipras's far left Syriza party is being joined by the right of center New Democracy party in voting to accept the deal. After that, Greece's parliament will have pass additional laws to receive an additional 86 billion euros in bailout money. This will kick the can down the road, but there may be an additional crisis at any time if the committed reforms are not implemented.

According to far left NY Times political commentator Paul Krugman:

"The trending hashtag ThisIsACoup is exactly right. This goes beyond harsh into pure vindictiveness, complete destruction of national sovereignty, and no hope of relief. It is, presumably, meant to be an offer Greece can’t accept; but even so, it’s a grotesque betrayal of everything the European project was supposed to stand for."

The first terms of the deal have to be enacted by Greece's parliament by Wednesday. Well-known investor Wilbur Ross, whose consortium last year invested 1.7 billion euros in Greek banks, said that this deal is the best thing for Greece and Europe, in an interview with CNBC (my transcription):

"I believe it will go through [in the parliament], and I think maybe in some ways it's more important that there will be a change in the political situation in Greece. So I think it will not only be enacted, I think it will be implemented. ...

I think that Greece needed societal reform, and that's what's coming as part of this package. They're not calling it that, but that's really what it is. There was a lot of dysfunctionality in the way that both the economy and society were structured. Those are now being addressed. In terms of moral hazard, if there's one thing that a politician wants, it's to be re-elected, and if I'm right, there'll be sufficient changes in the political scene - that will be a deterrent from other countries from playing games with the EU. So I totally disagree with the notion that there's anything here that will encourage bad behavior on the part of the other euro countries. ...

As for the amount of the debt itself, what Greece really needs is to get to a primary budget surplus, because right now they're going cash negative every month, without reference to any interest or principal. A lot of these reforms will cure that."

The last sentence refers to the fact that even if the entire debt were written off, and Greece was debt free, then Greece would immediately go back into debt, and would have to borrow more money.

Those who favor the deal point to privatizations of the seaports and airports as favoring growth in Greece, since they would remove a huge source of fiscal losses, and turn them into profit-making entities that would benefit the entire country and Europe. Reuters

China cracks down on 'peizi' or 'fund-matching' stock market businesses

China's stock market bubble that caused stock prices to rise by a factor of 250% before the bubble began to burst on June 12 is being blamed on "peizi" or "fund-matching" businesses that allow individual citizens to lend money to stock market investors in an unregulated manner. As of June 17, the outstanding margin loans in Chinese stock markets reached 2.26 trillion yuan (US$364 billion), which is equivalent to 4.1% of the total market value.

Ordinary people deposit money into the peizi funds, which do business online. All this money is pooled, and investors can then borrow money from the pool to invest in stocks, using the purchased stocks as collateral. The depositors earn a fixed rate of about 1%-1.2% per month, and the financing firms earn a fee. The rest of the money from increases in the value of the stock shares goes to the investors.

You don't have to be a rocket scientist to see what could go wrong with this. The peizi business are allowing leveraged margin loans of something like ten times the amount of margin that's permitted by regulated brokers. This allows stocks to be traded quickly between investors, bidding up the prices and creating a stock market bubble, which is what happened.

If stock prices start falling, as they have since June 12, then investors who pledged stocks as collateral have to sell the stocks in order to maintain the margin requirements. This creates a vicious cycle, where falling stock prices cause margin calls, margin calls cause stock sales, and stock sales cause falling stock prices. This was the major characteristic of American's 1929 stock market crash, and in fact it's a characteristic of the bursting of most asset bubbles.

The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has been promising for months to crack down on peizi companies, and has finally begun to do so in the past week. Three such companies (Miniu98.com, Xunqianwang and Quchaoguwang) shut down their peizi services on Monday because of the CSRC crackdown.

The Shanghai Composite stock market index plunged 30% in the days following June 12, but then recovered almost 10% in the last three trading days (Thursday, Friday, Monday). There is widespread fear in China, sometimes approaching a state of panic, that the index will start to fall rapidly once more. This is a well-founded fear. The stock market bubble has burst but has only partially fallen. When stock market bubbles burst, they never stop collapsing until they overshoot the index value at the time the bubble started to expand, so it's likely that the cumulative fall will be 60-75% before it's over. The Australian and Want China Times (17-Dec-2014) and Want China Times (22-Jun-2015)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jul-15 World View -- China cracks down on 'peizi' or 'fund-matching' stock market businesses thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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13-Jul-15 World View -- France-Germany split over 3-day ultimatum to Greece leads to flared tempers

China police crack down ahead of another volatile week in stocks

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

France-Germany split over 3-day ultimatum to Greece leads to flared tempers


(L-R) Greece's PM Alexis Tsipras, European Commission president Jean-Claude Jüncker, France's president François Hollande, Belgium's PM Charles Michel, at Eurogroup in Brussels on Sunday (Reuters)
(L-R) Greece's PM Alexis Tsipras, European Commission president Jean-Claude Jüncker, France's president François Hollande, Belgium's PM Charles Michel, at Eurogroup in Brussels on Sunday (Reuters)

With Greece almost out of cash, Eurogroup members are split into two sharply divided factions, the hardline group led by Germany, and the anti-German group led by France.

Saturday's Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers ended abruptly late at night after Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble got into a loud shouting match with Mario Draghi, the head of the European Central Bank (ECB). The nature of the fight was not reported, except that it ended with Schäuble shouting "I'm not stupid!"

However, Greece's credibility is so low, after months of lying and evasion, that even its supporters have to demand some kind of proof that Greece will meet its commitments. Germany is demanding that Greece meet certain conditions by Wednesday, or else the solution will be a "temporary Grexit," meaning that Greece leaves the eurozone for a period of time up to five years. However, France is opposed to any "Grexit" plan.

A political commentator on the BBC said that France and Italy, along with the European Commission, are against the hardline position that the Germans are taking. However (my transcription):

"But the number of people who fall into what you might call the German camp is large and is growing. It includes in particular all of the central and eastern European countries that are in the euro, Finland, the Slovaks, the Slovenes, the Baltic states. The Spanish and the Portuguese have been quite tough on the Greeks. So my guess is that whatever emerges is probably going to be a little bit closer to the German line than to the French line, but I think we're probably NOT going to see this idea of a temporary Grexit, because there are alternatives."

The popularity of France's president François Hollande has been plummeting in the last year. He hopes to improve his approval ratings by taking the anti-German side in the Greece debate, but that's causing political controversy within France itself. According to former president Nicolas Sarkozy: "We need Hollande to get his act together and restore unity with German Chancellor (Angela) Merkel."

There's one thing that seems increasingly clear: That the move two weeks ago by Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras to call a referendum has backfired in the sense that it made it much harder to reach an agreement. In particular, Greece's economy has deteriorated significantly in the last two weeks.

The Greek people are very resilient, and they will do well whatever happens. But there's a great deal of sadness internationally over the suffering that will occur in Greece no matter how the next few days unfold,

The European Union leaders summit that had been originally scheduled for Sunday was canceled because of the bitter Eurogroup split. AFP and Reuters and Kathimerini

Eurogroup imposes harsh demands on Greece to remain in eurozone

A document containing the the Eurogroup conditions to keep Greece in the eurozone has been leaked. The demands of Greece are harsh, but there are many sections of the documents that are in square brackets, indicate that the Eurogroup ministers could not agree on that section.

The document requires that the proposals be implemented by passing legislation in Greece's parliament by Wednesday, a feat that Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras may not be able to accomplish in a short time frame.

Some of the demands are as follows:

The Eurogroup ministers are referring to these demands, including the three-day ultimatum, as a "trust building exercise."

But the Greek people, already torn between fear and fatalism, are furious at the new demands, calling them Germany's plan to humiliate Greeks and Greece. Many Greeks are pointing out that Germany had half of its debt forgiven after World War II, and one of the countries that forgave Germany's debt was Greece.

The next three days will be very stormy. Kathimerini and AFP and Reuters

China police crack down ahead of another volatile week in stocks

China's regulators took extraordinary measures last week to slow the fall of the plummeting stock market, and apparently succeeded on Thursday and Friday, when stocks rebounded 10%, after falling 30% since June 12.

As of Friday, trading in about 1,400 firms - nearly half of the total traded on the Shanghai and Shenzhen exchanges - was suspended in order to prevent further bloodletting. By Sunday evening, about 260 had announced they would resume trading on Monday, raising fears of a new slide.

Meanwhile, in an effort to pin the blame on someone for the stock market slide, China's Ministry of Public Security has launched a task force to investigate "malicious short-selling." This refers to illegal practices such as spreading rumors to induce panic selling, taking advantage of inside information to dump shares before others, colluding with other institutions in bulk share sell-offs to send down prices, and churning - selling and buying the same shares at affiliated accounts to rig prices. Market manipulators could face up to 10 years in prison and heavy fines.

Beijing police said on Sunday that they had detained a 29-year-old man for spreading rumors that a person had jumped off a highrise in Beijing's Financial Street after incurring heavy losses in the stock market. Police claimed that the picture and video posted online were actually of a man falling off a building in east China's Jiangsu Province, and the cause is still unknown. China News Service and South China Morning Post

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Jul-15 World View -- France-Germany split over 3-day ultimatum to Greece leads to flared tempers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (13-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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12-Jul-15 World View -- Pope Francis in Paraguay alludes to 1860s War of the Triple Alliance

Distrust of Greece dominates indecisive Eurogroup meeting on Saturday

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Pope Francis in Paraguay alludes to 1860s War of the Triple Alliance


Pope Francis and Paraguay's President Horacio Cartes meet inside the López Presidential Palace, in Asunción, Paraguay on Friday.  The palace was named after president Carlos Antonio López, the father of president Francisco Solano López, who launched the War of the Triple Alliance (AP)
Pope Francis and Paraguay's President Horacio Cartes meet inside the López Presidential Palace, in Asunción, Paraguay on Friday. The palace was named after president Carlos Antonio López, the father of president Francisco Solano López, who launched the War of the Triple Alliance (AP)

Pope Francis met with Paraguay's President Horacio Cartes as part of his Latin American tour in the capital city of Asunción.

During his speech Pope Francis praised the women who rebuilt Paraguay after the War of the Triple Alliance devastated the entire country, killing almost all of the men. According to the Pope:

"On their shoulders, mothers, wives, widows have been able to pull forward their country. God bless the Paraguayan woman."

The War of the Triple Alliance is an interesting war from the point of view of generational theory. The war was launched against the triple alliance of Uruguay, Brazil and Venezuela by Paraguay's president Francisco Solano López, who is considered a hero by some, and an insane dictator by others.

López felt insulted, in common with Uruguay, in September 1864 when Brazil intervened in Uruguay without objection from Argentina.

López turned his hurt feelings into a decision to come to Uruguay's aid militarily, but he vastly overrated Paraguay's potential as a military power. He had expected Uruguay and Argentina to side with him in fighting Paraguay, but they weren't interested, instead signing the Treaty of the Triple Alliance, vowing to destroy López's government.

This was a generational crisis war for Paraguay, but a non-crisis war for the three allies, and all four countries fought the war in typical fashion for their generational eras. The allies would have ended the war quickly with little damage, but López didn't know when to quit. Paraguay's soldiers exhibited suicidal bravery, especially considering that Solano López shot or tortured so many of them for the most trivial offenses. By 1867 Paraguay had lost 60,000 men to casualties, disease, or capture, and another 60,000 soldiers were called to duty. Solano López conscripted slaves, and infantry units formed entirely of children appeared. The war was a complete disaster for López. He apparently went completely insane and suffered hallucinations of a vast conspiracy against him.

Allied troops entered Asunción in January 1869, but Solano López held out in the northern jungles for another fourteen months until he finally died in battle. The year 1870 marked the lowest point in Paraguayan history. Hundreds of thousands of Paraguayans had died. Destitute and practically destroyed, Paraguay had to endure a lengthy occupation by foreign troops and cede large patches of territory to Brazil and Argentina.

As regular readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that China is preparing to launch a preemptive attack on the United States, and is manufacturing thousands of missiles and submarines with no other purpose than to attack American cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers.

The Chinese are very sure of themselves at this time in history. They believe that the US is weak, and unwilling to fight. They see America's weakness in the South China Sea and in the Mideast, and they conclude that either we won't fight back or that they'll knock us out quickly. Like Francisco Solano López and the 1864 Paraguayans, the Chinese vastly underestimate their enemies and vastly overestimate their own military capabilities.

Yes, they will launch hundreds or thousands of missiles, including many nuclear weapons, but that won't be the end of the war. The Chinese will be wracked by their own internal civil war. They will have Pakistan and the Sunni Arabs as allies, but they'll have India, Iran, Russia, Japan, Vietnam and the Philippines as enemies. China's army has never fought an external war, and they will make many mistakes that the United States will not. It's not possible to predict whether the US will survive, but it's quite possible that a devastated United States will end up winning the war, and China will end up being as destitute and destroyed as Paraguay was in 1870. And it will be what they deserve for launching the war in the first place, just as it was for Paraguay. Telesur TV and Library of Congress Country Study: Paraguay

Distrust of Greece dominates indecisive Eurogroup meeting on Saturday

A meeting on Saturday of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers ended with no agreement on providing any further bailout money to Greece. It's clear that in the last few months there has been a complete loss of goodwill and trust between Greece and the eurozone.

According to Eurogroup chairman and Dutch finance minister Jeroen Dijsselbloem, referring to the proposal submitted by Greece:

"We are still far away. It looks quite complicated. On both content and the more complicated question of trust, even if it's all good on paper the question is whether it will get off the ground and will it happen. So I think we are facing a difficult negotiation. ...

There is still a lot of criticism on the proposal, reform side, fiscal side, and there is of course a major issue of trust. Can the Greek government be trusted to do what they are promising, to actually implement in coming weeks, months and years. I think those are the key issues that will be addressed today."

It's widely believed that whatever reforms Greece agrees to will never be implemented. There are reports that Finland's parliament has already rejected Greece's proposal.

Germany is taking a very hard line, and could make it's proposal by amending it as follows, with agreement from Greece's parliament:

In my personal opinion, these three items, particularly the second one, look more like a pathway to war than to a bailout. Can you imagine the reaction to having a German official order Greece's parliament around?

In the alternative, Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble has been floating the idea of a five-year eurozone "time out" for Greece, after which it could return to the eurozone.

Greece has requested enough bailout money to last three years. Others are saying that Greece would only get enough money to get through the summer months, and the whole thing would start again. But this would "kick the can down the road," which has been what's happened every time for years. Bloomberg and AFP and Reuters

France and Italy welcome Greece's proposals

Not everybody is against Greece. France and Italy have welcomed the Greek proposals and suggest that they would be acceptable.

France's economy minister Emmanuel Macron and Italy's Prime Minister Matteo Renzi both said that they are reasonably optimistic that an "aid for reforms" deal can be worked out. However, France's finance minister Michel Sapin was cautious on Saturday:

"Confidence has been ruined by every Greek government over many years which have sometimes made promises without making good on them at all. Today we need to have confidence again, to have certainty that decisions which are spoken of are decisions which are actually taken by the Greek government."

The Eurogroup of finance ministers met long into Sunday morning without reaching a conclusion. They'll try again to reach agreement on Sunday afternoon. If they fail, then there will be a summit of European Union leaders who will decide what to do next. Bloomberg and Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jul-15 World View -- Pope Francis in Paraguay alludes to 1860s War of the Triple Alliance thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (12-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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11-Jul-15 World View -- China's stock market looks increasingly like America in 1929

Worldwide concerns are growing about China's stock market crash

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Concerns are growing about China's stock market crash


China's small investors hold their heads as their life savings drain away (Corbis)
China's small investors hold their heads as their life savings drain away (Corbis)

The world has been focused this week on the financial crisis in Greece, but the financial crisis in China has the potential to be much more significant for the world. The Greek crisis is arguably just political, but a stock market crash is something that's almost completely out of control of any government.

Chinese officials are breathing a sigh of relief today, because China's stock markets rebounded 10% on Thursday and Friday, after falling 30% since June 12. It's not an exaggeration to say that government officials have been panicking as much as investors have.

Chinese officials have taken desperate measures to stop the stock market crash. They've reduced interest rates, so that it's easier to borrow money to invest in stocks. They've forbidden large investors from selling any stocks for six months. Half the companies on the stock market have suspended trading, for fear that if they're allowed to trade, then their prices will fall. Margin rules have changed in the last couple of days to let people borrow a lot more money, and use it to buy stocks.

So now the Chinese are praying that the market won't start falling again. China's stock market increased by 250% in the year preceding June 12, and was in a huge bubble. So far, the bubble has only partially popped, and bubbles never only pop partially. In fact, what they always do is overshoot their old indexes on the way down (applying the Law of Mean Reversion).

It's been a traumatic month for small investors, two-thirds of whom have not even finished high school. Some are retired, some are migrants. All of them have lost confidence.

As long-time readers know, Generational Dynamics predicts that China is headed for two wars -- an internal civil war, the first major civil war since the Communist revolution, and an external war, leading a world war with the United States, their first world war since World War II. These two wars are not inconsistent with each other, any more than the Communist Revolution and World War II were not inconsistent with each other.

A stock market crash triggering a Chinese economic depression would be enough to trigger an internal rebellion. One way that Chinese officials might try to externalize the internal rebellion would be to attack Japan or Vietnam or India or the United States.

So a major stock market crash in China could have far-reaching effects on the rest of the world. And China does appear to be in the middle of a major stock market crash. Reuters and Guardian (London)

China's stock market looks increasingly like America in 1929

China's stock market looks more and more like America's in the 1920s, leading up the crash in 1929, according to Andy Xie, former Morgan Stanley Chief Asia-Pacific Economist, and former World Bank Economist, when he was interviewed on Bloomberg TV.

According to Xie, the current stock market rebound might last for a while, but then it could fall again sharply, so that it goes down "in waves."

Xie compares what's happening in China today to "pump and dump schemes" of the 1920s. The perpetrators would buy shares of a stock at a low price, and then pump up the price of the stock by means of a media hype campaign of some type, encouraging people to buy the stock. The perpetrators would then dump their stock shares at the high price, which would collapse the price for the people who had fallen for the hype campaign. Pump and dump schemes were made illegal after the 1929 crash, but they're still practiced regularly on CNBC today.

According to Xie, China's stock market bubble was backed almost exclusively in this way, with no real economic fundamentals in play (my transcription):

"In the 1920s the US market was manipulated by all these pump and dump guys, before the government started to regulate the market. And they organized trusts to pump certain stocks.

In China it's become ubiquitous. The extent is far greater that what had happened in the United States in the 1920s.

It's been going on for 20 years. More and more people keep joining the dark side, and the people are losing money quicker -- every cycle you lose money quicker than the previous one.

So this time around, people with the real cash, didn't really join in. You see [in the media] all the pictures of the people going in there. These are really like a lot of young people, who just got their first job, not much money, and so that's why this market has been so dependent on margin loans. ... Even at the top of the market, only about 20% of the market capitalization are liquid shares.

So this market has not been pumped by real money. It's been pumped up by the loans. And the loans are borrowed by those guys who have been pumping. So at the end of the day, they look around, all they see are people are like them. So what are you gonna do? You keep doing that, and you borrow more, and hope one day the real money will come in."

According to Xie, the real market crash is not in stocks, but in the real estate market, which is 30-40 times as large as the stock market.

"The property market really burst a couple of years ago, but it's been covered up by the financial system -- not foreclosing on developers who go into default.

The stock market ride has raised the hope of these developers that they could somehow get money from the stock market.

So everything would be fine. But the stock market is small compared to the property market. China's debt is like 200 trillion renminbi. The stock market at the peak was 6 trillion. So the big game is not the stock market. The stock market offers the hope that if it keeps going up, then it will bail out everybody. ...

It's fair to say that most developers are technically bankrupt. ... Even when you look at Shanghai and Beijing, where markets are supposed to be very good - that's what people really think - but the sales are down 70-80%.

The property market has been the driving force in [the economy].

Electricity production is flat. ... You look at the consumption of whatever commodity - it's down. China's imports are down at a double digit rate, and exports are flat. You look at freight traffic - real freight traffic is down. It's difficult to see what's going on.

What the stock market did was to raise hope. Something was going up. And if it kept going up, eventually it would pull everything up.

That hope was dashed a few days ago."

Investopedia

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jul-15 World View -- China's stock market looks increasingly like America in 1929 thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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10-Jul-15 World View -- Both Greece and European leaders seem poised to compromise

UK advises all Britons to leave Tunisia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Both Greece and European leaders seem poised to compromise


Does Wolfgang Schäuble's broad grin mean that he's ready to compromise? (Kathimerini)
Does Wolfgang Schäuble's broad grin mean that he's ready to compromise? (Kathimerini)

It's not certain yet, but the Game of Chicken that Greece and the Europeans have been playing with each may finally be coming to an end, with both sides screeching to a halt before the collision.

Greek officials, led by prime minister Alexis Tsipras, submitted written reform proposals just minutes before the midnight (22:00 GMT) Thursday deadline demanded by the European leaders.

The proposals include tax increases on shipping companies, increases in VAT taxes, some privatizations, phasing out solidarity grant for pensioners by 2019, and defense spending cuts. The proposals are thought to contain around 12 billion euros worth of reform measures.

The package that Tsipras rejected before calling last week's referendum, which is also the package that the referendum vote rejected, called for a smaller amount, 8 billion euros, of reform measures.

However, Tsipras isn't being as generous as might first appear, and he is definitely not capitulating. As part of his proposal package, he's seeking 53.5 billion euros in a new bailout package, and a restructuring of Greece's large debt burden. The restructuring would involve stretching out the payment timeline for decades, meaning that the current repayment amounts will be smaller.

The proposal will be reviewed over the weekend first by the Eurogroup of finance ministers, and then by an EU summit on Sunday. If it's not considered adequate, it will be rejected.

Even if the EU summit accepts it, it's still not a done deal. The package has to be approved by Greece's parliament, and by several European parliaments.

It had previously been thought that Tsipras would never win approval for any such package because the communists and far left segments of his own Syriza party would block it. However, Tsipras is now allying with opposition parties, and he evidently has enough votes to get it passed.

As for the European parliaments, including Germany's Bundestag, a lot will depend on what German Chancellor Angela Merkel and Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble. If they support the package, then it's thought that the parliaments will fall in line.

Merkel has said in the past that the "red line" for her was that there can be no "haircut," meaning that no portion of Greece's debt can be entirely forgiven. That problem is evaded in Tsipras's proposal by keeping the nominal debt the same, but stretching out the payments so far that the debt, in actuality, will almost certainly never be repaid.

So it's believed that if Merkel and Tsipras can both personally endorse this proposal, then the national parliaments will fall in line.

You may recall, Dear Reader, that I said a couple of times in the past that my personal prediction (not a Generational Dynamics prediction) was that, one way or another, Greece would remain the in the eurozone. That prediction was really just based on a personal feeling. Since that time, I've been thinking about why I had that feeling.

I've been following news stories closely and writing about them for years, and one thing that's characterized the last 10-15 years, as opposed to the years following WW II, is that almost no one wants to make a hard decision, because they don't want to bear the responsibility of possible failure.

In this case, Tsipras and Merkel are being forced to choose. Neither of them wants to go down in history as the person responsible for the breakup of the euro currency union. Neither does anyone else. From that, the conclusion must be that, one way or another, Greece will remain in the eurozone.

Meanwhile, there'll a lot of hard bargaining over the weekend, and it's still possible that the negotiations will collapse. Kathimerini and BBC and Kathimerini

UK advises all Britons to leave Tunisia

It looks like the terrorists have won, at least in Tunisia.

Just four days after Tunisia declared a 'state of war,' following a terror attack in Sousse on June 26, and an attack on the Bardo Museum in Tunis on March 18, Britain is advising all of its citizens to leave Tunisia because "a further terrorist attack is highly likely."

According to the statement by the UK Foreign Office:

"Since the attack in Sousse, we have been working closely with the Tunisian authorities to investigate the attack and the wider threat from terrorist groups in Tunisia. Although we have had good co-operation from the Tunisian government, including putting in place additional security measures, the intelligence and threat picture has developed considerably, reinforcing our view that a further terrorist attack is highly likely. On balance, we do not believe the mitigation measures in place provide adequate protection for British tourists in Tunisia at the present time and we have therefore changed our travel advice accordingly."

According to Tunisia's Tourism Ministry, travel and tourism was 15% of Tunisia's GDP in 2014. 473,000 jobs are supported by travel and tourism, 13.8% of total employment. It's believed that the objective of the terrorist attacks was to cripple Tunisia's tourist industry, and the terrorists appear to have met their objective, at least for the time being. UK Foreign Office and BBC

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jul-15 World View -- Both Greece and European leaders seem poised to compromise thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (10-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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9-Jul-15 World View -- Greece's Alexis Tsipras compares himself to the tragic Antigone

Tunisia to build a wall and a moat along the border with Libya

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greece's Alexis Tsipras compares himself to the tragic Antigone


Antigone - oil painting by Trung Cao
Antigone - oil painting by Trung Cao

According to reports, many officials in Brussels are worried that Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras is "sleepwalking to disaster."

A speech that Tsipras gave to the European Parliament in Strasbourg on Wednesday has raised those concerns. Tsipras said:

"We want an agreement that will bring a final end to the crisis and show there is light at the end of the tunnel. The money that was given to Greece [went to the Greek and European banks and] never went to the people. ...

In ‘Antigone,’ Sophocles taught us that there are times when justice for men is above the laws of men. This is such a moment."

It's really weird that Tsipras is referencing the tragic Antigone character. Antigone was famously the daughter of the incestuous relationship between Oedipus and his mother, Jocasta. Antigone's situation does resemble Tsipras's in some ways, but the story does not end well. This is from the Cliff Notes summary of Antigone:

"As the heroine of Antigone, Oedipus' daughter grapples with Fate on her own, not just as a child or a dutiful daughter. Her decisiveness and courage appear in stark contrast to Ismene's passive timidity, and, in this tragedy at least, overshadow even her brother Polynices' bold attempt to take Thebes. In championing the laws of the gods above the laws of the state, Antigone occupies the ultimate high moral ground, but she is not impervious to doubt. Just before she is led off to her death, Antigone mourns the life she is leaving by her own choice and even seems to regret her decision. The moment passes, however, and may represent simply a small proof of human weakness that makes Antigone's strength all the more dramatic."

So what should we make of Tsipras's reference to Antigone? She championed the laws of the gods above the laws of the state, and occupied the high moral ground, which I'm sure Tsipras feels is true of himself as well. But at the end:

"Antigone has hanged herself and Haemon, in desperate agony, kills himself as well. On hearing the news of her son's death, Eurydice, the queen, also kills herself, cursing Creon. Alone, in despair, Creon accepts responsibility for all the tragedy and prays for a quick death. The play ends with a somber warning from the chorus that pride will be punished by the blows of fate."

Is that where Tsipras sees himself and Greece going? Kathimerini and Cliff Notes and Trung Cao

Furious European MEPs plan for humanitarian aid for Greece

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras received applause from the left-wing members of the parliament, and boos from the right-wing members. However, it's clear even those members of the European parliament (MEPs) who would like to help Greece are exasperated by his behavior, and this was reflected in some of their responses.

The liberal Jean-Claude Jüncker, the president of the European commission, was deeply offended by Tsipras's campaign rhetoric last week, and was extremely angry at Wednesday's meeting:

"I'm strongly rejecting all these accusations which were thrown to the public during the campaign that we are not respecting the dignity of the Greek people, that we are terrorists. I don't like this word. Who are they, and who do they think I am?

European Council President Donald Tusk spoke calmly, but firmly:

Until today I have avoided talking about deadlines. But tonight I have to say it loud and clear: that the final deadline ends this week."

Guy Verhofstadt, former prime minister of Belgium, and now leader of the Alliance of Liberals And Democrats for Europe (ALDE) in the European Parliament was shouting as he spoke:

"Greek political class didn't do enough themselves in the case of Greece. That is the problem today.

And I'm angry I have to tell you, I'm angry, because you are talking about reforms [[waving his hands for emphasis]] and WE NEVER SEE concrete proposals of reforms."

At this point, Tsipras has almost no credibility left, even with this supporters, because he's repeatedly lied.

He has now been told that he must have specific written proposals submitted by midnight Thursday, to give European Union leaders time to review them. There will be a meeting of EU (EU, not eurozone) leaders on Sunday to decide whether to approve the plan. The mood seems to be that nothing short of a major capitulation by Tsipras will be accepted.

If not, then all economic aid to Greece will end. Since this will mean the collapse of Greece's banks, the EU on Sunday will discuss humanitarian aid to Greece -- emergency handouts of food, water and other essential supplies -- something normally reserved for war zones and third world countries. AP and Business Insider

Tunisia to build a wall and a moat along the border with Libya

Last weekend, Tunisia's President Beji Caid Essebsi said the country was in a 'state of war' against terrorists, and imposed a 30-day state of emergency, after the terror attack that struck Sousse, Tunisia, on June 26. A terrorist with a Kalashnikov assault rifle strolled through the hotel grounds, opening fire at the pool and beach, reloading his weapon several times and tossing an explosive. He killed 37 people.

The investigation has revealed that the terrorist had been trained in Libya, and so Essebsi announced on Wednesday on state TV that the Tunisian army will build a 160 kilometer-long wall along the length of the country's border with Libya, with a moat next to it. The prime minister indicated that the wall would be made of sand and would be finished by the end of the year. He said security cameras and surveillance posts would be placed at regular intervals.

My personal belief is that a determined terrorist will find a way around a wall and a moat, but the government of Tunisia is desperate, and willing to try almost anything.

Tunisia would join Kenya which is planning a wall along its porous border with Somalia, following frequent infiltration by Somali militant group Al-Shabaab, which has carried out deadly attacks that has harmed the tourism-dependent economy.

Walls and fences are becoming very fashionable these days. As we reported last month, Hungary is setting aside $23.5 million to build a temporary security fence along Hungary's entire border with Serbia. The fence will be 4 meters high and 175 km long. VOA and Mail and Guardian Africa

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Jul-15 World View -- Greece's Alexis Tsipras compares himself to the tragic Antigone thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (9-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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8-Jul-15 World View -- China halts trading on 1,000 companies as stock bloodbath continues

Report on Obama's plans for the Mideast strategy into total fantasy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greece's Tsipras shows up at Brussels empty-handed


Euclid Tsakalotos (R) exposes his personal notes to cameras, where they can be photographed and examined (AP)
Euclid Tsakalotos (R) exposes his personal notes to cameras, where they can be photographed and examined (AP)

Everyone is getting sick of this story, but it's so awful and so horrible every day that it's impossible to take your eyes off of it.

Tuesday's news is that Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras was to come to a meeting of eurozone leaders in Brussels with new proposals, but showed up empty-handed. Last week, during his referendum political campaign, he referred to eurozone leaders as "terrorists," and now he continues to be as offensive and contemptuous as possible to the people that he wants to provide his government with many billions of dollars.

Exasperated eurozone leaders gave Tsipras until Thursday to provide a written plan, and scheduled a full summit of all 28 European Union nations for Sunday.

According to France's president François Hollande: "It's not just the problem of Greece - it's the future of the European Union" that is at stake.

Thursday and Sunday are supposed to be the final, final deadlines, but we've heard that before, haven't we? BBC

Greece's finance minister tells himself not to gloat

An amusing sideshow to Tuesday's meeting in Brussels is related to the arrival of Greece's new finance minister Euclid Tsakalotos at the meeting. He held his papers with his personal notes on top, where they could be photographed and examined.

Tsakalotos is being especially mocked because of the notes reads "No triumphalism." This is being interpreted to mean that Tsakalotos wants to keep himself from openly gloating over the size of his government's referendum victory on Sunday. Perhaps he's unaware that his country staring into the abyss. Guardian (London)

Report on Obama's plans for the Mideast strategy into total fantasy

As I've said in the past, I didn't care much about President Obama's ridiculous promises during the 2008 campaign, such as saying that with his election the earth would heal and the tides would recede. I assumed he'd become more serious after the election. But then, after the election, I heard him say similar stuff, like his promise that the world would be a different place on January 21, the day after he took office. My reaction was that if Obama believed something so delusional, then we would be in a great deal of trouble. Now, six years later, Obama has had one foreign policy disaster after another, after evidently having no clue what's going on in the world, and now it's widely believed that he's so desperate to have a foreign policy achievement that he'll concede anything to Iran to get a nuclear agreement.

But now an article in Tuesday's WSJ describes Obama's Middle East strategy for the next 18 month, and it's so out of touch with reality that it's clear that he's learned absolutely nothing in six years.

According to the article, he's seen an Iran deal as a kind of "gateway" to bring about massive changes in the Mideast:

"The White House is crafting a Middle East strategy for the remaining 18 months of President Barack Obama’s term that would more forcefully address conflicts in Iraq, Yemen and Syria amid tensions over the conclusion of talks with Iran. ...

[S]enior administration officials said the president is intent on cleaning up leftover messes in the region before leaving office in 2017, including relations with key allies that have been strained by the Iran talks."

How is anyone supposed to react to this? This is completely delusional. As I've been writing since May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", no peace plan can work because Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Since that times there have been four wars among various combinations of Israel, Hezbollah, and the Palestinians. And in recent years, there's been the war in and disintegration of Libya, the war in and disintegration of Yemen, and the rise of the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in both Syria and Iraq, threatening neighboring states.

The idea that Obama wants to "[clean] up leftover messes in the region" in the next two years is utter fantasy, but it's exactly the kind of thing that Obama believes.

According to the article:

"White House officials see the conclusion of Iran talks as a gateway for Mr. Obama to press for a political resolution in Syria that would facilitate the exit of President Bashar al-Assad, a close Iranian ally.

“It’s something I’d expect to see more pickup on as the Iran talks conclude,” a senior administration official said. “There’s a growing sense that momentum has turned against Assad and that is feeding a belief that there could be more opening on the political track.”

The conclusion of talks would thrust the U.S. into unfamiliar territory in a volatile region where years of diplomacy with Tehran has left relations with America’s allies, including Israel and Saudi Arabia, deeply strained.

Those alliances could be further frayed if the U.S. takes steps toward a broader rapprochement with Iran, and U.S. officials face a significant task in smoothing regional strains."

Obama is a Generation-Xer who, like many Generation-Xers, believes that he's the smartest person in the room, no matter who else is in the room. He's particularly contemptuous of Boomers and older people in general. This includes the Saudi Arabia's new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud who has been so often offended by Obama, that he snubbed Obama by not attending a Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) meeting hosted by Obama. Salman and other Gulf leaders are in their 70s, and consider Obama to be a kid who has no clue what's going on in the Mideast. ( "15-May-15 World View -- Obama repudiates the Carter doctrine at bizarre GCC meeting")

So as Obama goes about "cleaning up the mess" in the Mideast, you can be certain that he's only going to insult and offend Salman and the others even more.

And the Iran nuclear deal is extremely alarming to the Saudis and other Arabs, because Iran is a mortal enemy. Obama's oratorical skills will be worthless to change that.

As for convincing Iran to help bring about the exit of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, it's far more likely that the opposite will happen. The lifting of sanctions on Iran will increase Iran's income by tens or even billions of dollars, and much of that money will be redirected to Bashar al-Assad, as well as to the terrorist group Hezbollah.

Finally, the article says:

"In Yemen, where Saudi Arabia is fighting Iran-backed Houthi militants, White House officials are also considering ways to work with Tehran toward a diplomatic resolution. Iranian leaders view the conflict in Yemen as a low-cost opportunity to challenge Saudi Arabia, but less critical to Tehran’s future, one senior administration official said."

Once again, this is sheer delusion. Even without support from Iran, the Houthis will continue to fight the pro-Saudi Sunnis in Yemen, as well as the militias that form Al-Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), which is headquartered in Yemen.

Some people may say that, as the saying goes, it's better to see the world as it should be, rather than as it is. History provides no support for this view, and Generational Dynamics says that it can only lead to disaster. WSJ and CNN and Politico

China halts trading on 1,000 companies as stock bloodbath continues


Chart comparing Shanghai Composite Index today to DJIA in 1929 (USA Today)
Chart comparing Shanghai Composite Index today to DJIA in 1929 (USA Today)

As we've been reporting, China appears to be in a state of panic over the 30% loss in stock share value since June 12, and analysts are comparing it to America's 1929 crash. Last week, China announced a 'Market Stabilization Fund' that was similar to an 'Organized Support' support fund that America announced just before the 1929 crash.

China's stock markets fell only slightly on Tuesday, and did not continue the kind of huge plunge that we've seen. However, there's a good reason for that, and it's not because investors are suddenly confident about Chinese stocks.

About 1,000 Chinese mainland-listed companies, or over a third of firms on the Shanghai and Shenzhen stock exchanges, suspended trading on Tuesday precipitated mainly by the continuous drop in share prices. So when the Shanghai Composite Index lost only 1.29% on Tuesday, it was because the prices of stocks for 1,000 companies were frozen, and owners of these shares were stuck with them, unable to sell them.

Many of the remaining companies were those able to benefit from the 'Market Stabilization Fund', where fund managers and brokers are investing $19 billion of their own money in stocks, in order to push up prices.

According to analysts, no reason was given for suspending trading on the losing stocks, but analysts say that "they wanted to sit out the market turbulence" that caused the decline. If they believe that, then they're in for a long wait.

Halting trading on stocks is extremely dangerous because it exacerbates the pressures that caused the losses in the first place, meaning that the fall will be far more precipitous when trading begins again. If trading remains halted for more than a few days, then a secondary market will be created, where investors trade the losing stocks outside the stock market, and that can cause additional harm.

As of this writing on Tuesday evening ET, Wednesday morning in China, the Shanghai Stock Exchange opened 4-7% down. Since trading is still halted on over 1,300 stocks, it appears that the desperate policies to halt the bloodbath have failed. China News Service and Breitbart and USA Today

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Jul-15 World View -- China halts trading on 1,000 companies as stock bloodbath continues thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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7-Jul-15 World View -- Surge in Boko Haram attacks raises questions about new president of Nigeria

Greece's crisis deepens as German position hardens

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greece's crisis deepens as German position hardens


Pro-Tsipras Greeks celebrate referendum win (Getty)
Pro-Tsipras Greeks celebrate referendum win (Getty)

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras made several promises to the Greek people to secure their "NO" vote on the referendum. He promised that the eurozone leaders would immediately come to him with a new, more favorable proposal, and that the new deal would be signed within two days. He promised that the European Central Bank (ECB) would keep Greece's banks open with plenty of liquidity, and that the banks would re-open the day after the referendum. And he promised that the Greek people would keep their dignity.

Now the Greek people face the harsh light of reality. Even if everyone agreed to a new deal, it would take weeks to implement, because the German parliament would have to approve it. But Tsipras can't make any concessions after his overwhelming referendum victory, and the Germans, the Dutch and Finns are opposed to making any concessions at all. The ECB on Monday rejected any further liquidity infusions into Greek banks, and they'll have to remain closed for at least a few more days, and possibly many days. The 60 euro per day cap on ATM withdrawals will probably have to be reduced further, possibly to 10-20 euros per day.

Compounding the problem is that Greece is a different country than it was two weeks ago, a much poorer country. A country's economy is like a huge engine that can take weeks or months to come up to speed. Greece's economy has been almost completely shut down, so even if Tsipras's fantasy of a quick deal came true, it would still take months for Greece's economy to fully recover.

The eurozone leaders are meeting in Brussels on Tuesday, and Tsipras is supposed to make some proposals.

There's a great deal of irony about this. Tsipras made some commitments to the Eurogroup when he took power in January, and promised within a couple of weeks to submit proposals for meeting those commitments. He stalled and stalled, and never made those proposals.

Now he's back where he was -- he has to make proposals to the Eurogroup to meet his commitments. The referendum gained nothing, but it further impoverished the Greeks.

According to reports, he will "propose a deal based on the most recent set of proposals published by the European Commission." Well, he could have proposed that deal two weeks ago, and Greece will be a lot better off today.

If there is no deal, then the country will run out of money within a few days. At that point, the government will have to issue IOUs in lieu of salary and pension payments. These IOUs will serve as a "parallel currency" that can be used until the country returns to stability and can return to the euro. Kathimerini and BBC and CNBC and Kathimerini

Surge in Boko Haram attacks raises questions about new president of Nigeria

Like national leaders in other countries, Nigeria's new President Muhammadu Buhari made promises during his campaign that he is now finding himself unable to fulfill. During the campaign, his billboards read, "We will defeat Boko Haram."

But in a surge in violence, Boko Haram in the last week slaughtered more than 145 people in villages in the northeast, and bombed churches and mosques across Nigeria's north.

Buhari promised to crush Boko Haram, and he made some initial gains, with the Nigerian army recapturing most of the territories from the militants this year. But the recent attacks show that Nigeria is nowhere near defeating the jihadists. According to one Nigerian analyst:

"Most Nigerians expected something drastic, something dramatic, something concrete on the ground. They did not expect this spate of bombings across the country. They feel that OK, by now, Boko Haram should truly be a thing of the past. They do not seem to be impressed by the handling of the situation so far."

However a Buhari spokesman says that the president is working on a plan. Leadership News (Nigeria) and VOA and The Hindu (India)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jul-15 World View -- Surge in Boko Haram attacks raises questions about new president of Nigeria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (7-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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6-Jul-15 World View -- China announces 'Market Stabilization Fund' to stem stock market panic

Europe enters a dangerous period after Greece's Tsipras wins overwhelming victory

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Europe enters a dangerous period after Greece's Tsipras wins overwhelming victory


German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has suggested Greece could leave the Eurozone 'temporarily'
German Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble has suggested Greece could leave the Eurozone 'temporarily'

Greece's far left prime minister Alexis Tsipras won an overwhelming referendum victory on Sunday, with 61% of the voters favoring his position. No one knows what this means, except that it represents a major political victory for Tsipras, and a major humiliation for Merkel and the Eurogroup.

Tsipras's Syriza party won the victory in a campaign where he called the Germans "terrorists," and where promised that his victory would make the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers bend to his will and immediately give him a new bailout deal. He also promised that the banks would open on Tuesday.

The relations between Tsipras and other European leaders is now vitriolic, and it will be necessary for German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the others to swallow hard to force themselves not to shut out Tsipras completely. On the other hand, it may be politically impossible for Tsipras to compromise, after the overwhelming referendum victory. At the very least, the communists in his own governing coalition will not tolerate compromise.

Jeroen Dijsselbloem, head of the Eurogroup, said: "I take note of the outcome of the Greek referendum. This result is very regrettable for the future of Greece."

Germany's Economy Minister Sigmar Gabriel said:

"With the rejection of the rules of the euro zone ... negotiations about a program worth billions are barely conceivable. ...

Tsipras and his government are leading the Greek people on a path of bitter abandonment and hopelessness. ... [Tsipras has] torn down the last bridges on which Greece and Europe could have moved towards a compromise."

Germany's Finance Minister Wolfgang Schäuble said:

"Greece is a member of the eurozone. There's no doubt about that.

Whether with the euro or temporarily without it: only the Greeks can answer this question. And it is clear that we will not leave the people in the lurch."

As this suggests, EU leaders have drawn up emergency plans in cases Greece becomes insolvent, and the country is forced to leave the euro currency.

One part of this would be "humanitarian assistance," to help the Greek people survive.

The most important part of this would be a parallel currency, such as government IOUs. Unlike the euro, a parallel currency could be depreciated by Greece. According to Dr Jörg Krämer, Chief Economist at Commerzbank:

"If the Greek state were to become insolvent, it could pay its employees, pensioners and suppliers by means of promissory notes (IOUs) --- as the US state of California did in 2009. Banks would credit the recipients of these promissory notes with the equivalent value on separate accounts.

This parallel currency would allow the Greeks to pay their taxes. Moreover, the value of this parallel currency would depreciate significantly versus the euro, which would improve the price competiveness of goods produced in Greece.

A parallel currency would be legally possible if the Greek state avoided giving it the status of legal tender, prohibited by Article 128 of the Treaty on the Functioning of the European Union. But even without this status, a parallel currency could circulate if the state offered the possibility of using it to pay taxes."

Once the currency had become stable, Greece could return to the euro.

As I've said several times in the past, my expectation is that, one way or another, Greece is going to remain in the euro currency. But whether Greece stays in the euro or not, it's only going to be after multiple crises. Daily Mail and FxStreet and Reuters

China takes emergency measures to stem stock market panic

China appears to be in or close to a state of panic over the accelerating collapse of the stock market bubble since June 12, resulting in a 30% fall in the Shanghai Composite Index.

The "market stabilization fund" is tiny compared to the more than $3 trillion worth of market capitalization that the Chinese markets have lost in the past two weeks. Reuters and Business Times (Singapore) and Reuters

China's 'Market Stabilization Fund' mimics America's 'Organized Support' in 1929

A close reading of the classic book "The Great Crash - 1929" by John Kenneth Galbraith reveals that China is following the same path as America's 1929 panic.

During the year prior to June 12, China's stock market shares increased by 250%. Here's what happened in 1928, according to Galbraith:

"Brokers' loans reached four billion on the first of June 1928, five billion on the first of November, and by the end of the year they were well along to six billion. Never had there been anything like it before. ... People were swarming to buy stocks on margin -- in other words, to have the increase in price without the costs of ownership. This cost was being assumed, in the first instance, by the New York banks, but they, in turn, were rapidly becoming the agents for lenders the country over the and even the world around. ...

Never had there been a better time to get rich, and people knew it. 1928, indeed, was the last year in which Americans were buoyant, uninhibited, and utterly happy. It wasn't that 1928 was too good to last; it was only that it didn't last. ... As Walter Begehot once observed: 'all people are most credulous when they are most happy.'"

As in recent months in China, people were getting worried about a bubble and a recession by mid-1929, but everyone was optimistic:

"The official optimists were many and articulate. Thus in June, Bernard Baruch told Bruce Barton, in a famous interview published in The American Magazine [[June 1929]] that "the economic condition of the world seems on the verge of a great forward movement." He pointed out that no bears had houses on Fifth Avenue. Numerous college professors also exuded scientific confidence. In light of later developments, the record of the Ivy League was especially unfortunate. In a statement which achieved minor notoriety, Lawrence of Princeton said that "the consensus of Judgment of the millions whose valuations function on that admirable market, the Stock Exchange, is that stocks are not at present over-valued." He added: "Where is that group of men with the all-embracing wisdom which will entitle them to veto the judgment of this intelligent multitude?" [[WSJ, mid-1929]]

That autumn [1929] Professor Irving Fisher of Yale made his immortal estimate: 'Stock prices have reached what looks like a permanently high plateau.' [Fisher added: 'I expect to see the stock market a good deal higher than it is today within a few months']"

Until September or October of 1929, the decline in economic activity was very modest. But on Friday, October 18, the market fell 2.5%, and on Sunday, the NY Times headline read, "Stocks driven down as wave of selling engulfs the market."

That was the day of the announcement of "organized support" or, as the Chinese are calling it, a "market stabilization fund." According to Galbraith:

"Never was there a phrase with more magic than “organized support.” Almost immediately it was on every tongue and in every news story about the market. Organized support meant that powerful people would organize to keep prices of stocks at a reasonable level.

Opinions differed as to who would organize this support. Some had in mind the big operators like Cutten, Durant and Raskob. They, of all people, couldn’t afford a collapse. Some thought of the bankers — Charles Mitchell had acted once before, and certainly if things got bad, he would act again. Some had in mind the investment trusts.

They held huge portfolios of common stocks, and obviously they could not afford to have them become cheap. Also, they had cash. So if stocks did become cheap, the investment trusts would be in the market picking up bargains. This would mean that the bargains wouldn’t last. With so many people wanting to avoid a further fall, a further fall would clearly be avoided."

So that brings us to where China is today. Four days following the announcement of "organized support," the market began a full-scale panic.

So officials in China are going to be very nervously watching the market in the days to come, following the creation of the "market stabilization fund."

In lavish ceremony, the new King of Tonga is crowned -- by an Australian

The newly minted 56-year-old King Tupou VI of Tonga, Polynesia's only constitutional monarchy, was crowned on Saturday in a lavish ceremony costing $1.9 million. Tens of thousands of Tongans were in the streets chanting, "Long live his majesty, long live the queen."

What I found interesting about this story is that the crown was placed on his head by an Australian, not by a Tongan. By tradition, Tongans are forbidden to touch the head of the king. So a retired Methodist minister D'Arcy Wood, of Gisborne, Victoria, in Australia, placed the crown on his head.

News stories don't indicate whether or not Queen Nanasipau'u is allowed to touch her husband's head. Beyond that, I guess they're going to have to import a barber from Australia as well, whenever the King needs a haircut. Sydney Morning Herald

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jul-15 World View -- China announces 'Market Stabilization Fund' to stem stock market panic thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (6-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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5-Jul-15 World View -- Greece's referendum revives memories of a bloody civil war

Tunisia declares a 'state of war' as Mideast meltdown continues

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greeks are deeply divided over Sunday's referendum


Greeks in Athens wait in line to use the ATM (Kathimerini)
Greeks in Athens wait in line to use the ATM (Kathimerini)

Greeks are deeply divided as they prepare to vote on Sunday on the referendum nominally whether to agree to the lenders' austerity plan in return for a new infusion of bailout cash.

News reports indicate that Alexis Tsipras's government has taken over all communications channels, plastering "OXI" (NO) posters all over Athens, and broadcasting Tsipras's speeches constantly. The polls indicate that Greeks are split, 44% for each side, with about 12% undecided. However, some analysts have pointed out that there's so much pressure to vote NO that people may be afraid to say YES to a pollster, which might suggest that many of the undecided voters will actually vote YES in the polling booth. This in fact happened in the case of case of the UK's May poll on Scotland's independence, where polls completely failed to predict the overwhelming vote to reject independence. ( "9-May-15 World View -- Britain's surprise election and Chaos Theory")

Some Greeks are using Bitcoins to circumvent the capital controls that have been imposed this week. BTCGreece is the only Greece-based Bitcoin exchange, and thousands of people have been depositing their euros. Then can then transfer the money out of Greece as Bitcoins, which is otherwise illegal.

Thousands of people will be unable to vote because they can't afford to travel to their home regions, usually where they were born. According to one woman who works in the tourism industry and would have to travel 220 miles from Athens to vote:

I don’t want to spend the money and I don’t want to vote. To travel all that way and to spend the money, for what? It’s not going to change anything. There is no good option for Greece."

Indeed, things may get worse very quickly after the referendum. The chairman of the National Bank of Greece, Louka Katseli, said that Greece's banks will completely run out of money on Monday evening. "Liquidity is adequate through the end of the bank holiday," according to Katseli. After that, it will depend on whether the European Central Bank (ECB) will extend more emergency liquidity assistance (ELA), and that may depend on the result of the referendum vote.

Exit polls should start coming out until 7 pm in Athens, or 1 pm ET on Sunday. Final results will probably be available on Monday. Kathimerini and Reuters and Bloomberg

Greece's referendum revives memories of a bloody civil war

Sunday's referendum is stirring several historical memories. The country hasn’t held a referendum since 1974, when 69 percent voted against the return of the former king after the fall of a military dictatorship.

However, for many older Greeks, the strongest memory is of Greece's bloody civil war following the expulsion of the Nazis after World War II. Al-Jazeera's Athens correspondent John Psaropoulos told how the referendum is stirring memories of the civil for his mother (my transcription):

"I came home very late the other night, and had a conversation with my mother, who remembers the civil war, 1946-49, fought in this country between the resistance to German occupation which had been predominately communist, and then after the departure of the German occupation, attempted to seize power by force.

And I said to her what do you think of the NO vote, which would strengthen the ruling left wing Syriza government. She says, I don't know, I greatly fear another civil war. I remember they did terrible things last time around.

She remembers when her local police station was besieged by the communist forces. The young policemen inside were convinced that if they walked out and surrendered the property, their lives would be spared.

Instead, they were taken to a mountain top which is just to my left here on the outskirts of Athens, and their throats were cut using cans -- food cans -- opened tins.

This is the sort of brutality that Greece remembers from the civil war. It's been a taboo subject for many decades, because it split families apart, it split the entire country.

This is the first time that the left wing has been in power, and that was the last time it made a serious bid for power. So people have been connecting the divisive events of 1946-49 with the present. It's not that Syriza now threatens to take up arms against half the nation, but people are wondering whether people who have made such a violent and ultimately unsuccessful bid for power, and now have come to it with such a great thirst, with a sense of historic vengeance - are capable of wielding it in a way that unites the country, rather than divides it."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a very real concern. There have been huge rallies in Athens, with tens of thousands of extremely passionate demonstrators on each side. These rallies have been overwhelmingly peaceful, and no one really expects any violence next week, no matter which side wins the referendum.

But Greece's economy is a disaster, with no hope of improving for years. Those same opposing rallies, with tens of thousands on each side, could reappear in the weeks to come, and with a lot more venom.

Psaropoulos was asked what he thought would happen after the referendum. He gave a very pessimistic answer:

"Well, anything can happen this week. The entire country has been in hiatus for the last 7 days. Because banks have been closed, businesses have been semi-operational, a lot of them have actually sent people home for several days.

Now we're in a political hiatus as well. We don't know if the same government will be in office Monday night. We don't know whether Greece's creditors will continue to extend any kind of offer of financial assistance, a cash-for-reforms sort of program such as those that Greece has been dependent upon since 2010. Everything for the moment is up in the air. The degree of uncertainty is such that a lot of people are going out and stocking up on food.

An account I spoke to earlier today said, I'm afraid of the NO vote, but then again I know that if we vote yes to this package of austerity measures, none of my clients can possibly do them. 23% VAT on electricity and other utilities, impossible, she said. 100% of next year's tax income paid in advance this year, in addition to the current tax income - that's one of the measures on the austerity package going on the referendum tomorrow. .

Also impossible, she said. Nobody can possibly do these things.

So I think the best case scenario here is that the Greeks can ultimately come to some sort of deal that they can't fully honor, and only partially honor. I think those are the terms in which many people are thinking the day following this referendum here in Athens."

These last two sentences are interesting. This is exactly what I described yesterday has been happening all along, since 2010. Greece would promise to implement many reforms in order to get another bailout loan, but then Greece would implement as few of the reforms as possible. This would "kick the can down the road" a few more months, and then the whole cycle would start all over again.

It's interesting that Psaropoulos is putting this out as the best scenario to continue. That would mean that it's being talked about in Athens, and probably in Brussels as well, as the best way to continue, and to "kick the can down the road" once more.

Tunisia declares a 'state of war' as Mideast meltdown continues

Two days ago, I reported that leaders of Egypt and Kuwait were declaring that their countries were in a "state of war," thanks to terrorist activities. This followed terror attacks in Kuwait, France, Somalia and Tunisia on June 26.

Now Tunisia's President Beji Caid Essebsi on Saturday said that the country was in a "state of war." He declared a 30-day state of emergency powers. The declaration is linked to the terror attack that struck Sousse, Tunisia, on June 26. A terrorist with a Kalashnikov assault rifle strolled through the hotel grounds, opening fire at the pool and beach, reloading his weapon several times and tossing an explosive. He killed 37 people. There had also been an equally horrific terror attack at a museum in Tunis on March 18, killing 21 tourists and a policeman.

Essebsi gave a nationwide televised speech on Saturday:

"Tunisia faces a very serious danger and it should take any possible measures to maintain security and safety.

Terrorism is spreading. I believe, and I say this plainly and clearly. If this were to happen, which happened in Sousse. If this were to happen again, the country would collapse.

Now, we are on a state of war. We have to confront this with what is necessary to fight a war. Undoubtedly, in a way, the armed forces have a role, and they have to be on a state of alert. The national guard, the police. But this war is special."

When Essebsi said that "the country would collapse" if there were another similar attack, he may not have been exaggerating.

Tunisia depends heavily on its tourist industry. According to Tunisia's Tourism Ministry, travel and tourism was 15% of Tunisia's GDP in 2014. 473,000 jobs are supported by travel and tourism, 13.8% of total employment.

The two terrorist attacks specifically targeted foreign tourists, with the result that Tunisia's tourist industry has already been pretty much wiped out for the year. In this sense, the terrorists have already won. AFP and Reuters and Daily Mirror (London)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jul-15 World View -- Greece's referendum revives memories of a bloody civil war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (5-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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4-Jul-15 World View -- Greece heads for further chaos with referendum on Sunday

China hunts for 'stock manipulators' as market crashes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greece heads for further chaos with referendum on Sunday


A woman in Athens puts up referendum campaign posters.  'OXI' means 'NO' in Greek.  (Reuters)
A woman in Athens puts up referendum campaign posters. 'OXI' means 'NO' in Greek. (Reuters)

On Sunday, Greece will vote in a referendum to choose whether to accept Europe's last bailout deal, which has already expired on Tuesday and no longer exists. No one has any clue what a YES or NO vote will mean, except that it's essentially a referendum on Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras and his far left Syriza party.

Alexis has been campaigning non-stop, telling people nonsense -- that he guarantees that their pensions and salaries and bank accounts are safe, and that a NO vote will mean that the European creditors will have to back down, and give the Greeks back their dignity, with no more austerity. Others say that a NO vote will mean that Greece will leave the euro currency, and possibly even the European Union.

There have been huge rallies by YES and NO proponents in Athens. Polls show about 44% each for the YES and NO voters, with about 12% undecided.

Another bizarre twist occurred on Thursday, when the International Monetary Fund (IMF) issued a report saying that Greece's debt situation was far worse than previously reported, and is not sustainable. What's bizarre about it is that it was good news to Tsipras. According to Tsipras:

"Yesterday an event of major political importance happened. The IMF published a report on Greece's economy which is a great vindication for the Greek government as it confirms the obvious - that Greek debt is not sustainable."

So Tsipras's message is: "Hooray! The country is totally screwed, which is good for me! Yayyyyyyyy!"

Europeans are worried that if the far left wins in Greece because of this "bad news is good news for me" message from Tsipras, then far left and communist parties in Spain, Portugal and Italy will try the same thing.

If we can put aside Tsipras's glee for a moment, then to the rest of us it looks like a disaster either way, NAI or OXI. Kathimerini and BBC and Reuters

IMF report on Greece raising concerns about IMF's credibility

Thursday's report by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), described above, is raising questions about the credibility of the IMF, and its leader Christine Lagarde.

First, we have to look how we got here. Long-time readers know that I've been saying from the beginning that there is no solution to Greece's crisis -- not that no solution has been found, but that no solution exists. Other people have said similar things. And I've had lots of fun mocking European leaders who spoke nonsense, especially Jean-Claude Jüncker, who said, When it becomes serious, you have to lie. I've certainly had a lot of fun with that.

But the institutional lenders to Greece -- the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF), formerly known as the "Troika" -- have been engaged in a kind of game with Greece. The Troika would demand austerity reforms, Greece would promise to implement the reforms so that another partial bailout payment would be paid to Greece, but then Greece would implement as few of the reforms as possible. The "can would be kicked down the road" for a few months, at which time the process would start again.

When Alexis Tsipras came to power in January, he decided to call the Troika's bluff, and say: Your method won't work (because nothing can work), so I'm going to force you to do what I want (which is my far left agenda).

However, the Troika kept up the pretense that there exists a solution to the Greek crisis, and blamed Tsipras for being so unreasonable. But now the IMF report on Greece has undermined the Troika's pretenses, saying that Greece's growth is unsustainable. And Tsipras is jumping up and down with glee because, he says, they agree with him.

And that's causing problems for the IMF and Christine Lagarde. If I and other people have known since the beginning that Greece's debt is unsustainable, and there's no solution to the debt problem, then why didn't Lagarde speak up sooner? Was she lying? And why did she waste so much IMF money going to a lost cause?

Inquiring people want to know, and this is just one more element in the unending crisis in the Greece debt story. Australian Financial Review and Reuters

China hunts for 'stock manipulators' as market crashes

The Shanghai stock exchange index fell 6% on Friday, 10% for the week, and nearly 30% since June 12. The China Securities Regulatory Commission (CSRC) has been desperately trying different measures, such as cutting interest rates and allowing more stocks to be purchased on credit (margin), but the measures have been ineffective.

According to one Chinese analyst, "The government must rescue the market, not with empty words, but with real silver and gold. It's a disaster. If it's not, what is it?" What it is -- is a huge stock market bubble bursting.

Over 100 million Chinese investors, including many older people who have invested their life savings, have been spending 6 hours a day staring glumly at their mobile phones, watching the stock market index fall, and watching their own savings be destroyed. This feeds into the Chinese Communist Party's greatest paranoia - a people's rebellion.

Now the CSRC has set up a team to look at "clues of illegal manipulation across markets." This should be a laugh. Some poor slob who sold some stocks last week is going to be blamed and sent to jail.

When I wrote last week that, "It's well to remember that we don't know to this day what triggered the 1929 panic and crash," a web site reader wrote to say that Milton Friedman had written extensively about it. Actually, Milton Friedman has written extensively about the 1930s Great Depression, but nobody knows why the stock market panic occurred on the particular day, October 28, 1929, rather than a few months earlier or later.

Wall Street stocks are also in a large bubble, as I've described many times, with the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at a historically high 21.3. What can happen in Shanghai can happen on Wall Street. If you have your life savings in stocks, it's not impossible that you too could lose 30% of your savings in three weeks. Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jul-15 World View -- Greece heads for further chaos with referendum on Sunday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (4-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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3-Jul-15 World View -- Egypt's military brings the Sinai '100 pct under control' in 2nd day of fighting

Possible panic in China's stock markets

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Egypt's military brings the Sinai '100 pct under control' in 2nd day of fighting


Mourners carry flag-wrapped casket during the funeral of a slain soldier, in Alexandria, Egypt, on Thursday (Al-Ahram)
Mourners carry flag-wrapped casket during the funeral of a slain soldier, in Alexandria, Egypt, on Thursday (Al-Ahram)

The fighting in Sinai continued into a second day. Air strikes from Egypt's warplanes killed 22 militants in dawn raids on Thursday The situation in Sinai is now "100% under control," according to Egyptian officials. However, in the town of Sheikh Zuweid, where the militants attacked a string of army checkpoints on Wednesday, the army is still going from house to house, searching for extremists, and removing explosive booby traps and mines.

According to Egyptian officials, at least 300 militants launched the offensive on Wednesday, of whom 100 were killed, while 17 soldiers and security officers were killed.

The militants were from the terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which has conducted numerous attacks in Egypt's Sinai, along the border with Israel and Gaza, and last year changed its name to "Walayat Sinai" (Sinai Province), meaning "Sinai Province of Islamic State," when it repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and declared its allegiance to the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

There's been a surge in violence across the Mideast since ISIS called for increased violence during the holy month of Ramadan. Egyptian officials are going beyond blaming ISIS, and placing the blame on the Muslim Brotherhood, which is a banned organization in Egypt. Al Ahram (Cairo) and BBC and AP

Israeli general says that Hamas is supporting terrorist group in Sinai

An Israeli Defense Forces (IDF) general says that Hamas is actively assisting the ISIS-linked Sinai Province terror group that conducted the huge terror attack in Sinai on Wednesday. According to Major General Yoav Mordechai:

"We have clear information that Hamas supports the Walayat Sinai organization, which belongs to ISIS.

In the latest attacks, Hamas gave assistance in the form of weapons and organization to the group that supports ISIS. We have examples of commanders in Hamas who took an active part in this aid. Wael Faraj, a battalion commander in Hamas's armed wing, smuggled wounded casualties from Sinai to Gaza."

However, other reports indicate that Egypt may not agree with this assessment. Jerusalem Post

ISIS attack on Hamas pushes Hamas and Egypt closer together

ISIS has released a video targeting Palestinians that calls Hamas heretical and accuses its officials of apostasy. The main charges appear to be too much interest in democracy, too close relations with the Shia Muslim Hezbollah and Iran, and refusal to govern by Sharia law.

According to the video:

"The Islamic State has its eyes set on Jerusalem and is getting closer day after day to Al-Aqsa Mosque along the path paved by Abu Musab Al-Zarqawi [the head of al-Qaeda in Iraq] and Sheikh Osama Bin Laden [the head of al-Qaeda].

A message to the tyrants of Hamas, you are nothing in our reckoning. You, Fatah and all the secularists, we count you as nothing. God willing, we shall uproot the state of the Jews. You are nothing but froth that will be gone as we move in. God willing, Gaza will be governed by Sharia despite you. ...

By Allah, we shall make your young and old weep just as we did very recently to your dogs, the apostates, the hypocrites and the liars, those who grew rotten beards in Yarmouk camp, those who fought against the law of God. By God, we shall do it again and Gaza will see the blood and the dismembered bodies."

Egypt's policy remains that many of the terrorist cells in Sinai are receiving people and supplies from Gaza, through illegal tunnels dug underneath the wall separating Gaza from Egypt.

However, with Hamas and Egypt having common interests in fighting ISIS, the possibility exists that Hamas can be convinced to support Sinai terrorism less. Egypt's media have sharply reduced the anti-Hamas rhetoric and incitement, and there have been reports in Arab media outlets of a "honeymoon" in relations between Hamas and Egypt. It's fair to assume that comes from Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi.

Regional politics also play a part. Egypt used to be the main mediator between Israel and Gaza, but since last summer's Gaza war, when Egypt clearly sided with Israel, Hamas has turned to Qatar as a mediator, with reports of talks about a long-term ceasefire between Israel and Hamas. Egypt would like to return to its former central role as a mediator, and a cooling of hostilities would serve that purpose. Middle East Monitor and YNet (Israel)

Possible panic in China's stock markets

As of this writing on Thursday evening ET, Friday morning in China, the Shanghai stock market has fallen over 6%, and it's only been open for a little over an hour. Whether this is a full-scale panic remains to be seen.

The Shanghai index has fallen 30% since June 12.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jul-15 World View -- Egypt's military brings the Sinai '100 pct under control' in 2nd day of fighting thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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2-Jul-15 World View -- Egypt in a 'state of war' in northern Sinai

Kuwait in 'state of war' with ISIS, will require nationwide DNA testing

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Egypt in a 'state of war' in northern Sinai


Egyptian army near Al-Arish in the Sinai peninsula on Wednesday (Reuters)
Egyptian army near Al-Arish in the Sinai peninsula on Wednesday (Reuters)

Egypt's Prime Minister Ibrahim Mahlab said, "We’re in a real state of war," at a cabinet meeting on Wednesday, as Egypt's army was fighting a protracted battle in northern Sinai with jihadist militants.

Egyptian F-16 warplanes and Apache helicopters attacked the militants' positions for several hours Wednesday afternoon and killed more than 90 jihadists, according to Egyptian sources. The militant assault targeted military and police personnel in two towns, El Arish and Sheikh Zuweid, located in northern Sinai near the border with Gaza and Israel. More than 70 Egyptian soldiers and policemen were also killed.

This was different from the "usual" terror attack that Egypt has been experiencing, in that it was a sustained militia attack on Egypt's security forces.

The militants were from the terror group Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (ABM - Ansar Jerusalem - Champions of Jerusalem), which has conducted numerous attacks in Egypt's Sinai, along the border with Israel and Gaza, and last year changed its name to "Sinai Province," meaning "Sinai Province of Islamic State," when it repudiated its allegiance to al-Qaeda and declared its allegiance to the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Sinai Province has issued a statement claiming that they conducted simultaneous coordinated terror attacks at 15 different locations. They also claimed to have downed an Egyptian warplane with an anti-aircraft missile, but that claim was unconfirmed.

Wednesday's attack followed by two days the assassination of Egypt's top public prosecutor when a car bomb struck his convoy in Cairo. Egypt's president Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi had already promised a crackdown in response to the bombing. It's now expected that he's going to be pressured to seek revenge for Wednesday's attack, the worst in Egypt's recent history. El Ahram (Cairo) and Bloomberg and El Ahram

Israel approves Egypt's military buildup in Sinai

The 1979 Camp David peace treaty between Egypt and Israel requires the approval of each country for the other to deploy additional military forces near their common border.

Following Wednesday's terror attack in North Sinai, Israel has reportedly decided to grant all Egyptian requests to reinforce troops in the Sinai Peninsula. Jerusalem Post

Kuwait in 'state of war' with ISIS, will require nationwide DNA testing

Kuwait's interior minister Sheikh Mohammad Al-Khaled Al-Sabah said on Wednesday:

"We are in a state of war. It's a war that had been decided with this cell. But there are other cells, and we will not wait for them to try their luck with us."

Al-Sabah was alluding to the Kuwait terror attack of last week, one of the four terror attacks that occurred in four countries on a single day. ( "27-Jun-15 World View -- Terror attacks in Kuwait, France, Somalia and Tunisia highlight growing sectarian war") All four attacks targeted Friday prayers at mosques during the holy month of Ramadan.

The terror group "Najd Province" claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing attack on the Imam Sadiq Mosque in Kuwait's capital city, Kuwait City, during Friday prayers, killing 27 people and wounding over 200. The terrorist wore a white robe that concealed the bomb, and was not prevented from entering the crowded mosque.

The name "Najd Province" refers to the central region of Saudi Arabia where the ultraconservative Sunni ideology of Wahhabism originated. Like "Sinai Province" in Egypt, the name was adopted when the militants pledged allegiance to ISIS. Al-Sabah was referring to "Najd Province" as the cell that triggered this war.

The first step in Kuwait's war against ISIS is a new law that requires mandatory DNA testing on all of the country's citizens and foreign residents. The interior ministry will establish a DNA database of all 1.3 million citizens and 2.9 million foreign residents. The database will be used to make quick identification and arrests during terror attacks, according to the law's sponsors.

Anyone who refuses to give a DNA sample will be jailed for one year, and anyone who gives a fake sample can be jailed for seven years.

As we reported last week, Tunisia is responding to the terror attack it suffered by closing 80 mosques that are "spreading venom."

What we're seeing is a broad trend where leaders of countries where terror attacks have occurred are being forced by public opinion to take repressive measures, in the hopes of preventing future terror attacks. Today we've described such repressive measures in Egypt, Kuwait and Tunisia. It's not thought that any of the repressive measures will prevent "lone wolf" terror attacks, which are becoming increasingly common.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the Mideast is headed for a major generational crisis war, refighting the bloody, genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel, and expanding to a full-scale sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias. International Business Times (London) and AFP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jul-15 World View -- Egypt in a 'state of war' in northern Sinai thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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1-Jul-15 World View -- France reverses policy, will sell advanced defense weapons to Georgia

What were you doing last night at 23:59:60?

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

France reverses policy, will sell advanced defense weapons to Georgia


French Crotale (rattlesnake) anti-aircraft missile system
French Crotale (rattlesnake) anti-aircraft missile system

Ever since Russia invaded Georgia in 2008, annexing two Georgia provinces, Abkhazia and South Ossetia, it's been an unwritten European Union policy not to sell advanced weapons to Georgia, for fear of angering Russia and increasing tensions.

However, there's little support for such a policy anymore, after Russia invaded Ukraine, and annexed Ukraine's Crimea peninsula. As a result, France has agreed to sell Georgia "advanced air defense systems." The exact weapons systems to be supplied are top secret, but it's known that the supplier will be ThalesRaytheonSystems (TRS), which is a joint venture of the French defense electronics group Thales and US arms maker Raytheon. The company produces a range of ground-based surveillance radars, air defense command-and-control systems, as well as cyber capabilities.

Supplying just radars to Georgia would not be a big deal, as France supplied radars to Georgia after the end of the 2008 war with Russia. The unknown is whether the weapons will include either anti-aircraft systems or advanced anti-missile systems.

First discussions with France last year about the air defense deal triggered a major political crisis in Georgia. Former Defense Minister Irakli Alasania, who initiated the process of purchasing French air defense units, was unexpectedly fired last year, and made the sensational accusation that the deal was sabotaged by the prime minister, presumably at Russia's request.

Alasania claimed last year that the air defense systems to be purchased from France would be able to shoot down not only any type of Russian aircraft, but also even Russian ballistic missiles of the "Iskander" type. This claim was significant because Russia fired an Iskander missile into Georgia on August 12, 2008, killing dozens of civilians and a Dutch cameraman.

However, the current Georgia government is making no mention of Alasania's statement, causing the political opposition to be suspicious that the new deal with France was watered down to meet demands by Russia. EurasiaNet and Georgian Journal and Jamestown

Greece joins Zimbabwe and Cuba in missing an IMF payment

At midnight on Tuesday, June 30, Greece became the first "developed" nation to miss a payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), joining the ranks of "undeveloped" nations, including Zimbabwe and Cuba, that have also missed IMF payments.

Greece is now "in arrears" in payments to the IMF, but is not "in default." The three major credit-rating companies have said failure to pay the IMF doesn't constitute a default because that term is reserved for private-sector creditors. Greece has requested an extension for payment to the IMF, but it's thought to be unlikely that the IMF will grant the request.

Earlier in the day, a panicky prime minister Alexis Tsipras made a desperate last gasp proposal to the Eurogroup to request a new 2-year bailout program. The Eurogroup rejected it immediately.

It now appears that there will be several days of arguing and posturing on the part of both the Greek government and the European leaders. Right now, it seems the most significant next event will be the referendum on Sunday.

Since the referendum refers to a bailout plan that no longer exists, no one knows what YES means or what NO means. So it's now being widely assumed that YES will mean that Greece will remain in the eurozone, and NO means that Greece should leave the eurozone. As I wrote yesterday, my personal opinion, not a Generational Dynamics prediction, is that one way or another Greece will remain in the eurozone, even if the referendum vote is NO. Bloomberg and Kathimerini

Congress may enable bankruptcy courts for Puerto Rico

With $72 billion in debts and an extremely weak economy, Puerto Rico is in an economic death spiral, and may run out of cash within a few weeks, and be unable to pay salaries, pensions and other government expenses.

The White House has stated that there are no plans to bail out Puerto Rico.

Puerto Rico currently is barred by U.S. law from using Chapter 9 of the federal bankruptcy code, a last-resort tool that enables municipalities to resolve their debt in court. Detroit and other municipalities have used the bankruptcy courts to resolve their own debt issues, but Puerto Rico is barred from doing that.

Congressional leaders, led by New York Senator Charles Schumer, are considering a bill that would give Puerto Rico access to the bankruptcy courts.

A Puerto Rico bankruptcy, whether handled by a bankruptcy court of not, would have major consequences for Americans. Two-thirds of pension and retirement funds are holding Puerto Rico bonds, and these funds stand to lose billions of dollars. Bloomberg and NY Daily News

What were you doing last night at 23:59:60?

The above headline may look like it contains a typo, since the last second of every day is supposed to be 23:59:59. But on Tuesday, June 30, the last minute of the day was 61 seconds long, rather than 60. Most days are 86400 seconds long, but Tuesday was 86401 seconds long. The extra second was added as 23:59:60 GMT, or 7:59:60 ET.

Historically, an earth day has for centuries been defined as 84600 seconds long. But as it turns out, the rotation of the earth is a variable fraction of a second longer than that. Furthermore, the amount of variation can depend on things like earthquakes. The leap second is added at irregular intervals, by international agreement, to make up for that variation.

The fact that the dates of the leap seconds cannot be predicted in advance causes severe problems for some computer software developers.

Even in 1972, the time of the first leap second, system programmers for IBM mainframe operating systems had to deal with problems associated with leap seconds.

But today, the problems are much more severe. The guidance system for a rocket or missile may fail because of an added second at an unexpected time.

Real time financial systems have to deal with potentially thousands of transactions per second, and if a leap second is thrown into the mix, any financial system might make an incorrect computation or even crash.

For that reason, many stock exchanges decided to shut down their trading systems for a few minutes before and after Tuesday evening's leap second. Better to be safe than sorry. Bloomberg and Time Service Dept., U.S. Naval Observatory

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jul-15 World View -- France reverses policy, will sell advanced defense weapons to Georgia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Jul-2015) Permanent Link
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30-Jun-15 World View -- Turkey and Jordan separately plan invasions of Syria

Greece's chaos continues as banks are closed

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greece's chaos continues as banks are closed


Greeks rally in Athens on Monday in favor of 'NO' vote on referendum (Kathimerini)
Greeks rally in Athens on Monday in favor of 'NO' vote on referendum (Kathimerini)

With Greece's banks closed, citizens stood in long lines at ATMs, where they are limited to withdrawals of 60 euros per person per day. Thousands of pro-government protesters gathered in Syntagma (Constitution) Square in Athens on Monday to demand that citizens vote "NO" on Sunday's planned referendum. An anti-government rally is expected on Tuesday, to demand a vote of "YES".

One commentator is describing Greece's referendum this way: If you want to be executed vote YES; if you would rather commit suicide say NO. Another says that only God can save Greece now.

It's really hard to believe the farcical proceedings going on with the Greece crisis. On Monday Greece's government finally released the wording of the referendum question to be asked on Sunday:

"Should the proposal that was submitted by the European Commission, the European Central Bank and the International Monetary Fund at the Eurogroup of June 25, 2015, which consists of two parts that together constitute their comprehensive proposal, be accepted?"

It's referring to the Eurogroup proposal that's been withdrawn. What are we to make of this?

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras has referred to the June 25 proposal using the words "blackmail," "humiliation" and "ultimatum," making it clear that he would like Greeks to vote "No."

So what happens if the Greeks vote "No"? Tsipras seems to believe he can go to the Eurogroup and say, "See? I won the referendum. Give me all the bailout money I want, and I'll spend it as I please." What do you think the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers will respond to that demand?

What happens if the Greeks vote "Yes"? I heard a Syriza spokesman on the BBC say that they still wouldn't agree to the Eurogroup proposal. So what's the point of a referendum if the results are going to ignored?

One analyst has suggested that Tsipras chose the above wording for an emotional reason -- not to make sense, but to link this referendum to Benito Mussolini’s October 1940 ultimatum to occupy Greece, which the Greeks firmly rejected.

I've been asked to state my opinion as to whether Greece will remain in the euro currency.

This is certainly NOT a Generational Dynamics prediction, but my personal opinion is that Greece will, one way or another, remain in the euro currency. The reasoning is that even if Greece issues drachmas, there's no way to expel Greece from the euro. There are even off-the-wall scenarios possible, where the drachma would simply be equivalent to, say, one-tenth of a euro, or something like that, probably with a variable exchange rate.

Another possibility is that the Game of Chicken is still being played. The June 30 date may be a day of default, but otherwise it has apparently become somewhat meaningless now, and the next crucial date will be July 6, the day after the referendum. Some formula may yet be found to reach an agreement at the last moment. However, this would just "kick the can down the road" for three or four months, and new negotiations on a new bailout loan would have to begin immediately.

Whatever scenario unfolds, it's going to be horrible for the Greek people, and dangerous for the global financial system. Kathimerini and Forbes and Greek Reporter

Turkey considers invasion of Syria to prevent a Kurdish state

Turkish officials are sending shock waves through the Mideast by notifying Nato and US officials that they are preparing plans to invade Syria for humanitarian reasons.

By itself, this would be a significant escalation of the war in Syria. But it also comes at a time when Jordan is considering its own invasion of Syria to create a buffer zone (see next story), and at a time when Israel is considering entering the Syrian war to protect the Druze community.

Turkey's stated objective is to create a buffer zone in Syria for refugees who are targeted by the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), but it's believed that the real reason is the prevention of a Kurdish state along Turkey's border in Syria.

Over the weekend, Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan said:

"We will never allow the establishment of a state in Syria’s north and our south. We will continue our fight in this regard no matter what it costs."

At a separate event, prime minister Ahmet Davutoglu said that Turkey would take "all measures" to protect its borders:

"No one should be concerned that the fire would spread to Turkey. Even if we are in power for one second, we won't remain silent; we will take all necessary measures. State structures will implement these measures. No one is more important than the comfort and peace of Turkey."

The triggering event for these concerns was the stunning victories of the Kurdish YPG militias in the ISIS stronghold of Raqqa province, especially the seizure of the town of Tal Abyad, which is right on Turkey's border. ( "24-Jun-15 World View -- US aligns with Kurds and Shias in Syria and Iraq, angering Turks and Saudis")

According to reports, some 18,000 soldiers are expected to take part in the operation to take place on both sides of the border, with plans to establish a 110-km long and 28-km wide buffer zone.

A Turkish invasion of Syria would have significant implications for Europe and Nato. Since Turkey is a member of Nato, the invasion would technically mean that Nato was at war in Syria.

Reports indicate that Turkey will first try to get diplomatic support of its Nato allies and US-led coalition forces. Failing that, "Plan B" will come into plan, and Turkey will create a buffer zone on its own, and will train and equip the Free Syrian Army. Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Telegraph (London) and Hurriyet (Turkey) and Today's Zaman (Turkey)

Jordan makes plans for Syria invasion to protect its northern border

While Turkey considers an invasion of Syria to create a buffer zone in Syria's north, Jordan is considering an invasion to create a buffer zone in Syria's south. This is apparently a completely separate plan, with the joint timing a coincidence.

As in the case of Turkey, the stated object would be humanitarian, for the protection of refugees. Like Turkey, Jordan is hosting millions of Syrians who have been forced to flee their homes to escape the fighting.

The plan is to bolster rebels from the anti-Assad Southern Front alliance and the Free Syrian Army, many of whom have already received US-supplied training in Jordan. It's not clear to what extent Jordan's own army will participate, or whether Jordan will also build a militarized zone that will separate the buffer zone from the Syrian government forces in the north. However, this would be a significant escalation of Jordan's involvement in Syria, and would contradict oft-repeated statements by Jordanian officials that they would stay out of the war.

As we've been writing for many months, there is a growing trend of Muslims killing Muslims in the Mideast, heading for a major sectarian war that will engulf the region. Middle East Eye and Times of Israel

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Jun-15 World View -- Turkey and Jordan separately plan invasions of Syria thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (30-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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29-Jun-15 World View -- Global financial crisis -- Greece, China, Puerto Rico

How complex systems fail

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China makes desperate move to prevent stock market crash


People's Bank of China
People's Bank of China

As we've been reporting, China's stock markets have been in free fall since June 12, falling almost 20% in a couple of weeks.

Desperate Chinese officials are scrambling to stop the implosion and restore the bubble, and so the People's Bank of China (PBOC) made a major move, cutting interest rates sharply, to a record low. This makes more money available to banks, which officials hope will flow into the stock markets and prop up stock prices.

According to a Nomura analyst quoted by ZeroHedge:

"The policy easing should be viewed as a measure to contain the risk of a hard landing or systemic crisis rather than one to achieve faster growth. In this case, the stronger-than-expected monetary easing may help stem the decline in the equity market following a 10.6% drop over the past two trading days. The positive wealth effect of the equity market on consumption or aggregate demand is limited in China, but an equity market collapse would hurt millions of mid-class households and pose great danger to the economy and social stability."

In other words, the purpose of the policy measure is to prop up the stock market, but will have little effect on growth, which is the "normal" purpose of interest rate easing. Whether it will even succeed in propping up the stock market and preventing "an equity market collapse" remains to be seen in the next few days.

As of this writing on Sunday evening ET (Monday morning in Shanghai), stocks are up 2%, though it's been bouncing in and out of negative territory. Bloomberg and ZeroHedge and Reuters

Puerto Rico's governor says the island's debts are 'not payable'

In an admission that will have wide-ranging financial repercussions, Puerto Rico's governor Alejandro García Padilla has announced that the island territory will be unable to pay off its $72 billion in debts. According to Padilla:

"The debt is not payable. There is no other option. I would love to have an easier option. This is not politics, this is math."

This was not a surprise. As I wrote in March, a bankruptcy was a virtual certainty, probably as early in July.

Many people have invested in Puerto Rico bonds because they pay 10% interest (yields) and because under federal law they're "triple-tax free," meaning that you can earn 10% interest every year and not have to pay federal, state or municipal tax on the interest you collect. It's a sweet deal, provided that Puerto Rico doesn't go bankrupt, because if it does, then you lose most or all of your initial investment.

The unemployment rate is 13.7%. Only 700,000 of the 3.5 million people, or 20%, work in the private sector. The other 80% either are on welfare, or they receive unemployment or other aid, or they work for the government. Year after year, Puerto Rico sells more and more bonds, and investors eat them up because of the high tax-free yields. But now their string has run out. NY Times and Reuters

Greece's Tsipras appeals for calm after banks are forced to close

Greece's banks will be closed indefinitely, starting on Monday, after the European Central Bank (ECB) announced that it will end liquidity funding that was being used to prevent a Greek banking collapse.

As we reported yesterday, Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras suddenly terminated negotiations with the European lending institutions, surprising everyone, and called for a referendum of the Greek people on July 5. The Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers met without Greece present, to take steps for the protection of the eurozone.

They announced the termination of Greece's bailout program, but left open the question of whether the European Central Bank (ECB) would continue the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program. Greeks have been withdrawing billions of euros from their savings accounts in recent weeks, as much as a billion euros each day in the last week. This has been made possible by the ECB's ELA program, which provided liquidity to the Greek banks so that withdrawals were possible.

On Sunday, the ECB announced that the ELA would be terminated immediately. Tsipras went on nationwide tv and appealed for calm, saying that everyone's savings, salaries and pensions were safe. He announced that the banks and stock markets would not open on Monday, and would remain closed at least until July 7.

Tsipras also announced that capital controls would be imposed. ATMs will be open on Monday, but bank withdrawals will be sharply limited, to as little as 60 euros per person per day.

On July 5 there is supposed to be a national referendum in Greece. The referendum will be a vote on a bailout proposal that has already been terminated, and will no longer exist. There's a lot of hopin' and prayin' going on, but no matter what analysts say, no one has any clue what will happen. Kathimerini and Market Watch

How complex systems fail

When complex systems fail, it's seldom because of one problem, because each potential problem has usually been foreseen and a workaround developed.

Catastrophic system failures when several problems occur at once, and interact in a way that was not predictable.

Today we have major financial crises in China, in Europe and in Puerto Rico. In each case, officials have made some preparations. But can the global financial system handle all three simultaneously?

As I've been reporting regularly, the S&P 500 price/earnings ratio is far above historical norms, indicating that Wall Street stocks are deeply into bubble territory. That bubble is going to burst. There's no way to predict whether the current group of problems will be the catalyst, but sooner or later it will happen.

It's well to remember that we don't know to this day what triggered the 1929 panic and crash, and so we have no way of knowing what will trigger the next panic, but we can be sure it's coming.

At this writing on Sunday evening ET, Asian stocks are mostly falling, and Wall Street futures are down 1-1.5%.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Jun-15 World View -- Global financial crisis -- Greece, China, Puerto Rico thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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28-Jun-15 World View -- Greece's Tsipras rejects 'extortionate ultimatum' and ends bailout negotiations

Tunisia will close 80 mosques that are 'spreading venom'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Furious Eurogroup members plan Greece's default after Tsipras ends bailout negotiations


Alexis Tsipras giving nationally televised speech early on Saturday (Kathimerini)
Alexis Tsipras giving nationally televised speech early on Saturday (Kathimerini)

Members of the Eurogroup of eurozone finance ministers on Saturday unanimously rejected a demand to grant a 2-month extension to the existing bailout program, after Greece's government walked out of the negotiations.

Early Saturday morning, Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras surprised everyone, even members of Greece's negotiating team, by tweeting that he was ending the negotiations and calling for a snap referendum of the Greek people on July 5 to determine whether to accept the Eurogroup's bailout conditions. This would be the first time Greece has held a national referendum since 1974.

Tsipras addressed Greece's parliament in a nationally televised speech:

"I call on you to decide whether we should accept the extortionate ultimatum that calls for strict and humiliating austerity without end, and without the prospect of ever standing on our own two feet, socially and financially. We never considered giving in. ... These [Eurogroup] proposals prove that certain partners are not interested in reaching a viable and beneficial agreement for all parties, but rather the humiliation of the Greek people."

The parliament approved the referendum in a vote late Saturday night. However, many people are saying this referendum, if it is held, would really be a historic vote on "Grexit," whether Greece should remain in the euro, or even in the European Union. One commentator quoted an anonymous Eurogroup official as saying, "Tsipras is like a cowboy who walks into a saloon, takes his gun out of his holster, points it at his own head, and shouts, 'Do as I say or I'll shoot!'"

Tsipras's announcement was a complete surprise to the Eurogroup members, since they had been negotiating almost 24 hours a day all week, and there had never been any mention of a referendum. The Eurogroup members were said to be furious at Tsipras's betrayal. They met again without Greece, after Greece walked out, with the stated purpose of making plans to guarantee that the rest of the eurozone would not be hurt by Greece's actions and possible default or Grexit.

German minister Sigmar Gabriel said: "There must be a clear program. And what he (Tsipras) would like – for Europe to send €20 or €30 billion in aid programs to Greece, but without any conditions – Europe cannot accept."

However, many European officials say that they stand ready to negotiate if Greek officials change their minds. According to Germany’s finance minister Wolfgang Schäuble:

"We have no basis for further negotiations. Clearly we can never rule out surprises with Greece, so there can always be hope. But none of my colleagues with whom I've already spoken see any possibilities for what we can now do. ...

We decided today that we will not extend the second program. We did not decide to end the euro zone membership of Greece."

As I've been saying for weeks, the logic of the Game of Chicken is that there will be no deal until one minute to midnight on June 30, when a 1.5 billion euro debt payment is due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF). One angle is that if Greece misses the June payment, then the IMF has the choice of calling it a default, or just saying that Greece is "in arrears," and give them another month. But after Greece walked out of the talks, Eurogroup members apparently are now expecting Greece to default. Kathimerini and AFP and Guardian (London)

Greece's chaos may begin as early as Monday

Greece's people are close to panic, wondering what will happen next week, even on Monday. There were long lines on ATM machines on Saturday, since many Greeks do not feel confident that the banks will even be open on Monday.

One question that the Eurogroup left open on Saturday was when the Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA) program would be terminated. The ELA is money that the European Central Bank (ECB) has been supplying to the Greek banking system, as Greeks have withdrawn billions of euros in the last few weeks. On the day that the ELA is terminated, severe capital controls will be implemented, meaning that withdrawals will be limited to a small amount each day. Some banks are already setting limits.

Another question on everyone's mind is this: If the referendum is held on July 5, exactly what will the Greeks be voting on, inasmuch as the Eurogroup has announced that the entire program will end on at midnight on Tuesday, June 30? Will they be voting on some bailout deal, or will they be voting on their entire future in Europe?

Greece's institutional lenders -- the European Commission (EC), European Central Bank (ECB) and International Monetary Fund (IMF) have been demanding for months that Greece reduce pension payments by increasing the retirement age over time, cut the defense budget, reduce the public payroll, reduce planned tax increases on businesses, and increase the VAT (value added tax) in some areas.

Since Alexis Tsipras and his far left Syriza government came to power in January, he's added public employees, increased taxes on businesses, and refused to touch the retirement age.

As I've said many times in the last few years, no solution exists for the Greek debt problem, and that's why no solution has been found, or will be found. But even if some kind of deal can be agreed on, presumably at one minute to midnight on Tuesday, all it will do is kick the can down the road for a few weeks. The deal under discussion is for the last €7.2 billion tranche of the second bailout loan. Greece needs a third bailout loan, and that will begin negotiations all over again in a few weeks, something that is so painful, both sides are wondering whether it's worth it.

The long-suffering Greek people are watching all this drama and are pretty sure of only one thing: That things are about to get a lot worse. Irish Times and Reuters and Bloomberg and Kathimerini

Tunisia will close 80 mosques that are 'spreading venom'

Tunisia's Prime Minister Habib Essid accused 80 mosques of "spreading venom," and announced that they would all close, as part of a clampdown on security. This follows Friday's terrorist attack on a beach in the Sousse holiday resort in which 38 people were killed.

Many Tunisians are demanding to know why stronger security measures weren't taken after the March terrorist attack on a museum in the capital city Tunis. ( "19-Mar-15 World View -- Beneath the surface, Tunisia is a terrorist breeding ground")

As I wrote at the time, some 3,000 Tunisians have traveled to Iraq and Syria to join the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), more than any other country in the world, and Tunisian preachers are extremely skillful at convincing young men to join ISIS. So the charge that some Tunisian mosques are "spreading venom" is widely believed.

However, many analysts question how effective closing mosques will be. According to one analyst, the closures will end up creating a two sets of mosques:

"You will have a parallel religious sphere where people don’t go to the mosques because they think the mosques only tell us what the state would like us to hear, so they go to private meetings. Once you have this parallel market, radical ideas can spread much more quickly, because you have no control."

Nonetheless, after Friday's terrorist attack, one of the worst in decades, people are going to be demanding that the government "do something."

As I reported yesterday, there were four major terrorist attacks on Friday, the others being in Somalia, Kuwait and France. This kind of widespread terrorism is going to increase demands in many countries to take steps, even if the steps won't work, to prevent further terrorist attacks. Indeed, it's thought to be impossible to stop "lone wolf" terrorist attacks, such as the ones in Tunisia, Kuwait and France on Friday.

As I've been writing for years, nationalism and xenophobia are increasing in country after country as the World War II survivors die off, as the generational Crisis era deepens. We've seen this in story after story -- Russia's xenophobia towards Caucasian Muslims, Europeans toward Jews, Roma and Muslims, Chinese towards Americans and Japanese, Sunni and Shia towards each other, and so forth. Note that Generational Dynamics does not make a moral judgment about these trends, any more than a weather forecaster makes a moral judgment about an approaching rainstorm. But Generational Dynamics predicts that this nationalism and xenophobia will continue to increase in country after country, and lead to World War III. This global increase in xenophobia and nationalism is a trend that cannot be stopped, certainly not be closing a few dozen mosques. CS Monitor and BBC

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Jun-15 World View -- Greece's Tsipras rejects 'extortionate ultimatum' and ends bailout negotiations thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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27-Jun-15 World View -- Terror attacks in Kuwait, France, Somalia and Tunisia highlight growing sectarian war

China's stock markets continue their free-fall

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Al-Qaeda linked al-Shabaab launches massive terrorist attack in Somalia


Dead bodies on the beach after terrorist attack in Tunisia (CNN)
Dead bodies on the beach after terrorist attack in Tunisia (CNN)

The al-Qaeda linked terror group al-Shabaab attacked an African Union base in the village of Lego in Somalia, killing dozens and taking complete control of the village and the region. The base is part of the Amisom peacekeeping force.

The dawn raid started with a suicide bomber driving a car loaded with explosives into the entrance of the base, and then dozens of militants armed with machine guns and rocket-propelled grenades began their assault.

According to an al-Shabaab spokesman, "The Black Islamic flag is flying over the main base of Amisom in Lego this morning and the dead bodies of the enemy are scattered around the area, the mujaheddin fighters have taken all their military supplies."

Al-Shabaab had previously promised to step up its attacks during the holy month of Ramadan. AP and AFP

ISIS-linked terrorists attack Shia mosque in Kuwait City, killing 27

The terror group "Najd Province" claimed responsibility for a suicide bombing attack on the Imam Sadiq Mosque in Kuwait's capital city, Kuwait City, during Friday prayers, killing 27 people and wounding over 200. The terrorist wore a white robe that concealed the bomb, and was not prevented from entering the crowded mosque.

The name "Najd Province" refers to the central region of Saudi Arabia where the ultraconservative Sunni ideology of Wahhabism originated. It claims to be an affiliate of the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh). The group also claimed responsibility for bombing attacks at two Shia mosques in Saudi Arabia in late May, killing 26 people.

Kuwait is a predominantly Sunni Arab nation, where 1/3 of the population is Shia.

ISIS has been openly promoting a sectarian war between Shias and Sunnis, and the attacks on Shia mosques are meant to trigger that war. KUNA - Kuwait News Agency and AP

France in shock after beheading and attack at US-owned factory

The French people have barely recovered from the Charlie Hebdo terrorist attack in Paris in January ( "11-Jan-15 World View -- France officials criticized for not stopping Charlie Hebdo terror attack").

So it's certain that Friday's attack on the US-owned Air Products factory is going to inflame the French people's anxieties and lead to demands for further action for protection from terrorists.

The suspect, Yassin Sahli, accelerated the van he was driving, and rammed it into a warehouse containing canisters of acetone, liquid air and gas, resulting in an explosion that was seen miles away. The explosion killed two people.

What was particularly grisly about the attack was the discovery of a severed head hanging from a fence after the blast. There were two black flags with Islamic writing hanging near the victim's head. The decapitated body was found later in the suspect's van.

The suspect was recognized as working for a delivery service that made regular deliveries to the factory, so he was never questioned on arrival. The decapitated body was that of his boss at the delivery company.

The suspect has been married for ten years, and has three children. His wife and sister have also been arrested. France24 and CNN

Terrorist gunman creates bloodbath in Tunisia, killing 37

A gunman disguised as a tourist opened fire at a Tunisian hotel in Sousse on Friday, killing 37 people. According to some reports, he arrived at the beach in a boat, and hid his weapons in an umbrella. He removed the weapon, a Kalashnikov assault rifle, from the umbrella and strolled through the hotel grounds, opening fire at the pool and beach, reloading his weapon several times and tossing an explosive.

ISIS claimed responsibility for the attack. In a tweet, a spokesman said: "Our brother, the soldier of the Caliphate, Abu Yihya al-Kairouni, reached his target the Imperial hotel despite the security measures."

As in the case of France, shocked Tunisians are just barely recovering from a previous terror attack, at a museum in the capital city Tunis in March. ( "19-Mar-15 World View -- Beneath the surface, Tunisia is a terrorist breeding ground") Friday's attack was the worst terrorist attack in Tunisia since 2002.

It's thought that ISIS is targeting Tunisia because Tunisia is the major success story of the "Arab Spring," which actually began in Tunisia in 2011. However, unlike other Arab countries, Tunisia has been a successful secular democracy. The terror attack actually targets Tunisia's tourist industry, which accounts for 15% of its GDP and most of its foreign currency revenues. BBC and Reuters

Analysis of Friday's four terror attacks

Some commentators are describing Friday's attacks as a further Muslim attack against the West, but it's very hard to find much evidence of that. The attack in Tunisia targeted Tunisia's tourist industry, even though most of the victims were European tourists. The attack in France is ambiguous because the suspect killed his boss, so it may have been motivated by workplace violence rather than by ideology. However, the attacks in Kuwait and Somalia were clearly targeted at other Muslims.

As I've been writing for months, there is no Muslim war against Christians and the West -- at least not yet. The number of Christians being killed by Muslims is minuscule compared to the vast number of Muslims being killed by Muslims in the Mideast, North Africa and Asia.

Other commentators are wondering if all four attacks are coordinated by ISIS, and there's a little evidence of that, though not much. ISIS has made a general call for more terror attacks during the holy month of Ramadan, especially on Fridays, when the mosques are packed for Friday prayers. Al-Shabaab has made a similar call. So it's possible that the four attacks were not coordinated, but coincided because of the opportunity of the first Friday in Ramadan. At any rate, ISIS claimed credit for only the attacks in Kuwait and Tunisia, and al-Shabaab is al-Qaeda linked, not ISIS linked.

Finally, many commentators are confused about why ISIS would want to trigger a sectarian war between Sunnis and Shias. I've explained this many times, but now is a good time to repeat it.

For the west, the major generational crisis war of the last century was World War II. Almost every policy of almost every Western government has been a reaction to something that happened during WW II. It's significance cannot be overestimated.

However, WW II was NOT the most significant war to the Muslims in the Mideast. For them, the generational crisis wars were the collapse of the Ottoman Empire around 1920, along with associated wars such as Iran's Constitutional Revolution in the 1900s, and then Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution, along with associated wars such as the Iran/Iraq war, Syria's civil war and Lebanon's civil war, all in the 1980s. Those two groups of wars were far more significant in the Mideast than World War II, and almost every policy of almost every Mideast country has been a reaction to something that happened during those wars.

For ISIS, and previously for al-Qaeda, the most significant war was Iran's 1979 revolution, which threw out a secular government and replaced it with a hardline Shia near-dictatorship. For Sunni jihadists, this is the dream war that they want to mimic, by triggering a violent Shia-Sunni civil war in any of a number of countries, expecting it to lead to a hardline Sunni dictatorship.

To them, and to Westerners who say that they would like a sectarian Mideast war because it would mean more Muslims killing Muslims, I would tell you: Be careful what you wish for. And I promise you that if you survive, then you'll regret having ever wished for such a thing.

At any rate, this will not be the last day with four terrorist attacks. If anything, ISIS and al-Qaeda will try to repeat their "success" in days to come.

China's stock markets continue their free-fall


What's happening in Chinese markets? (CNN)
What's happening in Chinese markets? (CNN)

As we reported a week ago on Friday, China's huge stock market bubble began to burst, and the Shanghai stock market index plunged 13% for one horrible week.

This past week has been just as horrible. On Friday alone, the index fell 7.4%. Hundreds of individual stocks fell 10%, the maximum amount permitted, suggesting that the index might have fallen much farther. The index reached its peak on June 12, and has fallen 19% since then.

In the year preceding June 12, the stock market index surged 250%, creating a huge stock market bubble. Individual Chinese, many of them older citizens, poured their life savings into the stock market in search of high returns. As one analyst said, "This is going to end in tears." Bloomberg

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Jun-15 World View -- Terror attacks in Kuwait, France, Somalia and Tunisia highlight growing sectarian war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (27-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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26-Jun-15 World View -- Turkey denies responsibility for ISIS massacre on Kurds in Kobani

European leaders prepare for Greece to default

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Pakistan gives 'Save the Children' a partial reprieve


A guard stands in front of the locked and sealed Save the Children office in Islamabad (The Nation)
A guard stands in front of the locked and sealed Save the Children office in Islamabad (The Nation)

Pakistan is now permitting Save the Children to reopen its headquarters office in the nation's capital Islamabad, as well as 13 of 73 offices across the country. Save the Children will be forbidden from operating in the Federally Administrated Tribal Areas (FATA), Balochistan, Gilgit-Baltistan and other sensitive areas.

Pakistan's government has shut down the aid organization Save the Children, locked and seized their office building in Islamabad, and gave them 15 days to leave the country.

On June 11, Pakistan unexpectedly shut down Save the Children, sealing all its offices, giving them 15 days to leave the country. The interior minister announced that it was clamping down on non-government organizations (NGOs) that provide aid:

"We will not allow anyone to work under the table. We will not allow any NGO to work in this country against Pakistan’s interests, culture and values."

No explanation was given for closing Save the Children, and government officials were accused in the media of paranoia and xenophobia. Pakistan began to back off almost immediately, and now has allowed some of the offices to reopen.

Pakistan's campaign against NGOs is believed to have been triggered by the American administration bragging in 2011 that a vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama bin Laden. Save the Children says they had nothing to do with that, but since 2011, every foreign aid program has come under suspicion. Pakistan Today and Nation (Pakistan) and BBC

Turkey denies responsibility for ISIS massacre on Kurds in Kobani

The Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) on Thursday killed dozens of Kurds, mostly civilians, in a brutal attack on Kobani. The ISIS militants disguised themselves in YPG uniforms, so they were undetected, until they opened fire. The is attack is apparently in revenge for recent gains by Kurdisk YPG militias.

As we reported just two days ago, Kurdish YPG militias have inflicted some major military defeats on ISIS in the latter's stronghold province Raqqa in northern Syria. The YPG victories were attained in combination with forces from the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA), and supported by hundreds of airstrikes from the US coalition.

In Turkey, the pro-Kurdish People's Democratic Party (HDP) accused the government of president Recep Tayyip Erdogan of allowing of playing a part in the ISIS victory. It's not known where the ISIS militants came from before entering Kobani, and some HDP officials are suggesting that they crossed over from Turkey with the help of the Turkish government.

An outraged Erdogan accused the HDP of being a "tool of the Bashar al-Assad regime and some international lobbies which are enemies of Turkey," and said:

"We see that the circles close to the separatist organization [Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK)], I mean prominent figures from the political party [HDP], are carrying out a slander and black propaganda campaign in the wake of this nefarious attack. They are trying to provoke our nation with these completely baseless claims .... I am saying this openly once again, nobody can dare to show Turkey on the same line with terrorism."

The HDP described the ISIS attack on Kobani as a massacre and blamed it on Turkish state support for the militants, a claim which was strongly denied by the Turkish government. Daily Mail (London) and Today's Zaman (Istanbul)

European leaders prepare for Greece to default

The high stakes Game of Chicken being played out in Brussels took new steps forward on Thursday as a Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers ended without any decision. Another Eurogroup meeting will be held over the weekend.

Greek citizens have withdrawn billions of euros from the Greek banking system in recent weeks. To keep the banking system from collapsing, the European Central Bank (ECB) has been providing money to the banks in the form of its Emergency Liquidity Assistance (ELA).

Plans are being made to end the ELA on Monday, if there's no deal over the weekend. In that case, capital controls would be imposed on Greek banks, meaning that Greeks would be severely limited in the amount of money they would be allowed to withdraw.

If that's a European threat that's directed at Greece, then the Greeks have their own threats directed at Europe. First, the Greeks can threaten to go to Moscow for a bailout, which would give Russia sweet revenge for the European sanctions imposed on Russia. And second, Greece could send all the African and Syrian migrants in Greece across the borders into other European countries.

Actually, the negotiations are continuing to follow the Game of Chicken scenario. The logic of the Game of Chicken, where two cars race towards each other at top speed to see who veers first to avoid a collision, is that neither car veers until the last nanosecond, if at all. So if we're really following that scenario, then we shouldn't expect a deal until Tuesday, which is supposed to be the final, final, final deadline. Kathimerini and Irish Examiner

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Jun-15 World View -- Turkey denies responsibility for ISIS massacre on Kurds in Kobani thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (26-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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25-Jun-15 World View -- Hungary and Austria in disagreement over migrants

Palestinians to submit war crimes charges against Israel to ICC

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Hungary and Austria in disagreement over migrants


A group of Afghans rest after crossing illegally from Serbia into Hungary near the village of Asotthalom, Hungary (Reuters)
A group of Afghans rest after crossing illegally from Serbia into Hungary near the village of Asotthalom, Hungary (Reuters)

With migrants from Africa and Syria flooding into Europe, disagreements are arising among the European Union countries on dealing with them.

In the case of Hungary, prime minister Viktor Orbán, is personally disliked by other EU leaders, has said that the country is being overwhelmed by migrants, with more than 60,000 having crossed in Hungary from outside the EU since the start of 2015, which is more than any other EU country. Most of the migrants have crossed into Hungary from Serbia, which is not an EU country.

In the last week, Orbán has announced three measures to control the number of migrants in Hungary:

VOA and International Business Times (London) and SpyGhana

Britain and France face migrant crisis in port of Calais

That's not the only current conflict between EU countries over the migrant crisis. France and Britain have been pointing the fingers of blame at each other over a major crisis in the French port of Calais, which is the location of the entrance to the Channel Tunnel that connects France to Britain.

There's been a flood of migrants into Calais, wanting to reach Britain to take advantage of the generous benefits. Migrants have been burning tires and using other methods to slow the trucks trying to travel to Britain, and then jumping into the trucks while they're stopped, hoping that they won't be detected until they reach Britain.

One 20-year-old migrant was quoted as saying:

"My future would be better if I get to England. I need to get to England. I came here via Turkey and Greece and now I'm living in the jungle in Calais. The situation here is very bad.

But life in Syria was worse. Our homes were destroyed and our government used chemical weapons against us. I need a better life in England and I will do whatever it takes."

Some officials are expressing the fear that jihadists and terrorist would hide in the crowd of migrants in Calais, and use the chaos to travel to the UK. Telegraph (London)

Palestinians to submit war crimes charges against Israel to ICC

The Palestinian Authority (PA) on Thursday will submit to the International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague files describing alleged war crimes by Israel.

According to reports, there will be charges in three areas:

With regard to the third item, we reported last year in July, while the war was in progress, that Palestinian lawyers are saying that they are on solid grounds in some areas, but that Hamas would face war crimes charges themselves, for shooting rockets indiscriminately into Israel from heavily populated Gaza neighborhoods, and for storing weapons in civilian neighborhoods. Both of these are war crimes.

Although the accusations will be embarrassing to Israel, they're not expected to have any legal force, and any investigation that occurs will likely not begin for many months. Reuters and YNet and Guardian (London)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Jun-15 World View -- Hungary and Austria in disagreement over migrants thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (25-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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24-Jun-15 World View -- US aligns with Kurds and Shias in Syria and Iraq, angering Turks and Saudis

Syrian Kurd militias deal a heavy blow to ISIS

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Syrian Kurd militias deal a heavy blow to ISIS


Raqqa province in Syria. Kurdish forces have defeated ISIS in Tal Abyad, Ain Issa and Liwa 93 military base, and taken control of all three.  (Reuters)
Raqqa province in Syria. Kurdish forces have defeated ISIS in Tal Abyad, Ain Issa and Liwa 93 military base, and taken control of all three. (Reuters)

The Kurdish YPG militias in Syria, combined with forces from the US-backed Free Syrian Army (FSA), have succeeded in a string of dramatic and significant victories over the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in their stronghold in Raqqa province.

On Monday, YPG/FSA forces took full control of the town of Ain Issa, as well as the Liwa-93 military base, following last week's seizure of the border town of Tel Abyad.

These are significant victories for a couple of reasons. First, it leaves the Kurdish forces poised to strike at the city of Raqqa itself, the self-declared capital of ISIS in Syria.

And second, it cuts off two important supply routes for ISIS, the north-south route from Raqqa to Turkey, and the east-west high running through Ain Issa, which links the city of Aleppo with the north-eastern province of Hasaka, which leads into Iraq, which makes these victories a significant blow to ISIS.

It's also significant that these victories were done in close coordination with the US and the US-led coalition, with the offensive backed heavily with dozens of coalition airstrikes.

The close cooperation between the US and the Syrian Kurds began last year in the battle over the Syrian town of Kobani, on the border with Turkey, with a victory by the Kurds. ( "27-Jan-15 World View -- Kurdish militias drive ISIS out of the Syrian town of Kobani") After that, the Kurdish forces began moving east toward Tal Abyad, while other Kurdish forces in eastern Syria began moving west. The two forces met near Tal Abyad last week, cutting off the main north-south road between Raqqa and Turkey. ISIS had been using that route to funnel foreign fighters and equipment into Syria and sell their black market oil.

Now the victories in Raqqa province are said to be a model for future cooperation between the US and the Kurds when fighting ISIS. According to Pentagon spokesman Col. Steve Warren:

"This fight ... has been an example of ISIL fighters breaking under the pressure delivered by coalition air power and capable and willing ground forces."

Hundreds of Syrian refugees in Turkey returned to their homes in Tal Abyad on Tuesday. They had fled to Turkey to escape the fighting between YPG and ISIS.

Both Syria's army and Iraq's army have shown little will to fight against ISIS, nor has Hezbollah. The strongest fighting on the ground against ISIS has been with the local groups, the Kurds and the Shia militias known as Hashid Shaabi (popular mobilization units). The US is cooperating with these groups, thus providing indirect support to the PKK and Iran, which are listed as terrorist groups and sponsors by the US State Dept.

Note: PYD = Kurdish Democratic Union Party in Syria. YPG = Kurdish People’s Protection Unit in Syria, armed wing of the PYD. YPJ = Women’s Protection Units in Syria. HDP = Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party in Turkey, PKK = Kurdistan Workers' Party anti-government insurgents in Turkey. In Syria, YPG is the armed wing of the PYD, which is allied with the PKK in Turkey, which is considered a terrorist organization by the US. Peshmerga = Kurdish militias in Iraq. Be prepared for a quiz. Australian Broadcasting and USA Today and Today's Zaman (Istanbul)

Turkey's support splits between Kurds and ISIS

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan has always made it clear that his top priority is to get rid of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad. Furthermore, the Kurdistan Workers' Party (PKK) is a separatist group fighting for an independent Kurdistan, taking pieces from Syria, Turkey and Iraq. The PKK considered a terrorist organization by both the US and Turkey, and there has been years of terrorist PKK violence in Turkey.

So Erdogan is not happy with the turn of events that have allowed the Kurds in eastern and western Syria to link up at Tal Abyad on the border with Turkey, with substantial support from US airstrikes.

Erdogan's opposition in Turkey is now saying that pro-Erdogan media is siding with ISIS against the Kurds. According to reports, officials in Erdogan's Justice and Development Party (AKP) have been praising ISIS and demonizing the Kurds.

A report in the pro-opposition Daily Zaman quotes the Sabah daily headline: "PYD is more dangerous than Daesh." Sabah also claimed that the PYD were not allowing Turkmens and Arabs from Tal Abyad to return to their towns and hinted that the real target of the Kurdish militants is actually Turkey.

Turkey's deputy prime minister Bülent Arinç says, "We see that there are signs pointing towards a kind of ethnic cleansing," by both the PYD and ISIS.

A Turkish state broadcaster said:

"Daesh attacks and kills those it captures. The PYD/PKK seize certain regions and force people living there to migrate. It doesn't matter who comes -- the [al-Assad] regime, Daesh or the PYD -- they are all persecuting civilians."

Today's Zaman (Istanbul)

US support for Kurds further alienates Saudi Arabia

Saudi media makes it clear that the Saudis are also pretty unhappy with US support for the Kurds and for Iran, while leaving Syria's president Bashar al-Assad untouched. There's nothing new about this, as the Obama administration has been relentless offensive to the Saudis, and has alienated them considerably. However, the support for the Kurds is one more step in the same direction.

According to a report in the Arab News:

"As you will remember, the coalition partners that remained silent during the four years of turmoil in Iraq and Syria immediately swung into action when Kobani was targeted last year and provided military assistance to the PYD/YPG forces in the region. ...

At the same time we issued this warning: The PYD, a terror organization, and its armed wing the YPG, are more dangerous than all the armed groups in Syria. The US must become aware of the growing communist threat.

Despite these warnings, very little has changed in the attitude of the US and its allies. The YPG now know the passcode that would open all doors for them. It used Daesh card in every area it advanced through, ensured that coalition planes would bomb the region and thus secured control of that territory. When events were portrayed in that manner in the international media, all developments were depicted as a victory; not a word was said about the civilians dying in the coalition attacks or local residents under threat by the YPG.

The same thing has now happened in the region of Tal Abyad. ... The code word “Daesh” was employed again and coalition planes horrifyingly dropped bombs on the local residents of Tal Abyad. The interesting thing is that the area had already been under Daesh control for a year. The only thing new in the area was the violence inflicted on the inhabitants by the coalition bombs and the YPG.

Certainly we in no way approve of the violence employed by Daesh in Syria and Iraq. But the point we wish to make here is that the YPG is playing the Daesh card to legitimize its own evil and to deceive the US in particular. The terrible thing is that the US secret state apparatus that has wanted to see a Great Kurdistan for the last 100 years is keen to believe in this scenario and believes that its objective is being attained."

In another Arab News editorial:

"Today, one can summarize Washington’s approach toward Iraq, Syria, and Lebanon as follows:

* In Iraq, it is supporting the ruling elite jointly brought to power by the 2003 US invasion and Iran’s expansionist policies.

* In Syria, the virtual disregard of human suffering and meaningless “red-lines” after four years and three months of the country’s popular uprising.

* In Lebanon, the tacit acceptance of Hezbollah’s hegemony after neutralizing the former battlefront with Israel through UN Security Council Resolution 1701.

In all three cases Washington’s policies have been underpinned by Obama’s all-out push for an “agreement” with Iran, and his exploitation of Daesh extremism as the perfect justification for such an agreement, eventually developing into a full-fledged alliance."

This is a good time to review where things stand. As I've been writing for years, we're headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war in which some of the "allies" will be the West, India, Russia and Iran, and some of the "axis" will be China, Pakistan, Turkey, Saudi Arabia and other Sunni Arab countries. In the Mideast, the US will be siding with the Shias against the Sunnis.

The events of the last year allow us to refine this, in that it's becoming increasingly clear that the Kurds will be aligned with the Shias and the West against the Sunnis.

I've written about this many times, at length. In brief, the explanation is as follows: China is allied with Pakistan, which is allied with Saudi Arabia. The US is allied with India, which is a close ally of Russia, which is a close ally of Iran. Also, India's Hindus and Iran's Shia's have been allies all the way back to the Battle of Karbala in 680. ( "China 'betrays' Iran, as internal problems in both countries mount" from 2008.)

It's actually been pretty obvious for years that Iran would become our ally, because there large numbers of pro-American and pro-Western student demonstrations in the early 2000s. Although the old geezers who survived the 1979 Great Islamic Revolution refer to America as the Great Satan, the young people are overwhelmingly pro-Western, and are taking over as the Revolution survivors grow old and die off. Arab News and Arab News

Understanding men's moustaches in Turkey


Turkish Moustache Styles (Hurriyet)
Turkish Moustache Styles (Hurriyet)

According to a helpful analysis of moustache styles in Turkey, there are three main styles illustrated above:

Moustaches in both of the latter styles are generally trimmed short, in line with the advice of the Prophet Muhammad. Hurriyet (Ankara)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Jun-15 World View -- US aligns with Kurds and Shias in Syria and Iraq, angering Turks and Saudis thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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23-Jun-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban score major victories as US and Nato withdraw forces

Report: Greece's debt crisis being kicked down the road

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Report: Greece's debt crisis being kicked down the road


The wily Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis watches as Greek PM Alexis Tsipras grins broadly at something amusing said by European Commission president Donald Tusk (Kathimerini)
The wily Greek finance minister Yanis Varoufakis watches as Greek PM Alexis Tsipras grins broadly at something amusing said by European Commission president Donald Tusk (Kathimerini)

There are reports that Greek officials have finally made some concessions, especially raising taxes on businesses and wealthy individuals, and that the lending institutions are starting from those, and are close to making a deal that will allow Greece to make its 1.5 billion euro debt payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on June 30.

If a "deal" is made, all it will do is kick the can down the road for a few weeks. The deal is for the last 7.2 billion euro tranche of the second bailout loan. That money will permit Greece to meet its IMF payment, as well as several other payments due in July and August, but no more.

What Greece needs is a third bailout loan. So assuming that this "deal" is concluded later this week, then negotiations on the new bailout loan will have to begin soon, and the drama will start all over again.

On Bloomberg TV on Monday, there was an interview with Anna-Michel Asimakopoulou, who is the finance minister for Greece's opposition New Democracy party, which was the government party before Alexis Tsipras's victory in January's election. Asimakopoulou expressed a great deal of bitterness about what Tsipras has done (my transcription):

"Mr. Tsipras in 5 months has managed to bring the real economy to a standstill, turn us into a recessionary cycle, undo every decent thing that has been done, and now we're facing the following choice: A deal, which is going to cost the Greek people 5 billion euros in measures, on the one hand, and the absolutely worst case scenario, which is no deal, which means we're facing uncharted waters, bankruptcy, and a possible Grexit [Greek exit from the eurozone]. ...

This is a critical thing for Greece's future. It's not a little bitty decision - it's a huge decision. He is not allowed to jeopardize our future in the eurozone - he doesn't have the mandate to do that. And yes, now people are taking money out of the banks, now the public sector has stopped making any payments towards anybody except for wages and salaries and we're not really sure that's gonna last. ...

Our main concern with this deal, assuming it happens and we hope it does, it's taxes, taxes and more taxes. There's nothing that will favor growth. We think growth is gonna come from the private sector, from businesses. We're all for privatizations. We don't want a bloated public sector. Mr. Tsipras has hired 5,000 people in the public sector in the last three months. That has a price tag, and the price tag is being paid by the Greek people."

Even if a deal is made, then it has to be sold to the Greek people, who have been promised no more austerity, and to the German people, who don't want to pay any more to bail out Greece.

As I've said repeatedly, no solution exists to Greece's debt crisis. I think everyone believes that the can will run out of road at some point, but we don't know when. Kathimerini and BBC

Afghan Taliban strikes Afghan parliament in Kabul

It's the start of the Afghan Taliban's summer offensive, and they've scored two major victories in the last three days: A major terrorist attack on the Afghan Parliament in Kabul on Monday, and the imminent takeover of a major Afghan city in northern Afghanistan, for the first time since 2001.

On Monday there was a terrorist attack captured on live TV in Kabul, the capital city of Afghanistan. A suicide bomber blew himself up outside the Afghan Parliament complex, bringing down a part of the roof, and then six other terrorists rushed in, armed with assault rifles and rocket propelled grenades, but they were not successful in breaching the compound's gates. All seven terrorists were killed, as was a woman civilian. 30 civilians were wounded.

The Parliament building is the most heavily guarded area in Kabul. Every time there's a successful terrorist attack in central Kabul, there's the usual commentary demanding an investigation about how terrorists were able to get so close to the center of power. But the situation seems to be worsening.

However, such attacks have been occurring with increased regularity, as the Nato and American forces have been withdrawn. The attack fits a pattern of high-profile assaults on heavily fortified buildings in the capital. Last month, car bombs targeted the Justice Ministry, and attackers stormed two guesthouses used by foreigners. Reuters and AFP and Hindustan Times

Afghan Taliban close to seizing the city of Kunduz

Taliban forces have captured two villages near the city of Kunduz in the last two days, and are close to seizing Kunduz itself, forcing tens of thousands of refugees to flee their homes. With a population of 300,000, this will be the first time since 2001, when American forces defeated the Taliban after 9/11, that the Taliban have been in control of a large city. Whoever controls Kunduz, a vast, rich agricultural region that was a former Taliban bastion, controls the roads to northeastern Afghanistan as well as smuggling and trade routes into neighboring Tajikistan and the rest of Central Asia.

The government in Kabul has dispatched reinforcements, including Afghan Special Forces and their U.S. advisers and trainers, to try to repel the insurgents and rescue about 75 soldiers and policemen trapped inside their district base. But the Afghan forces are spread very thin, fighting on several fronts. Washington Post and Stars and Stripes

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Jun-15 World View -- Afghan Taliban score major victories as US and Nato withdraw forces thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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22-Jun-15 World View -- China's bubble stock market plunges 13% in one week

Tick-tock tick-tock, Greece's clock is running down

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China's bubble stock market plunges 13% in one week


Shanghai stock market composite index for five years until June 19 (Bloomberg)
Shanghai stock market composite index for five years until June 19 (Bloomberg)

The Shanghai stock market has been fairly steady for years, but last year it suddenly started surging into bubble territory, increasing by 250% in the last year.

Then, after reaching a peak of 5166 on Friday, June 12, it suddenly started plunging all of the last week, falling 13% to 4478 by Friday, June 19, including a 6.4% fall on Friday alone. This is the worst run in China's stock market since the 2008/09 financial crisis.

Chinese analysts are giving four reasons for the plunge:

However, Western analysts point to the explosive greater-than-exponential growth in "retail investor" stock trading accounts, especially in the last few months, for people who are investing their life savings over the internet. Many Chinese have been using the stock market bubble to make a living. According to one report, retail investors are prone to herding patterns of behavior when markets become stressed, which could lead to "periods of mass fund exodus."

ZeroHedge has done an analysis and discovered that Chinese officials are so worried about this situation that they've stopped releasing data about the number of new stock trading accounts. They've been providing this data for 8 years, but suddenly stopped on May 29. At that time, the number of retail stock trading accounts spiked to 4.3 million, but there's been no released data since then. Global Times (Beijing) and CNBC and ZeroHedge

Wall Street stock market bubble continues its surge


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.73 on June 19 (WSJ)
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.73 on June 19 (WSJ)

Wall Street stocks have surged further into bubble territory as well during the last year, just like Shanghai stocks, though they have not yet taken any serious plunge like the Shanghai stock exchange.

It's been a month since I reported that the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (stock valuation index) was at an astronomically high 21.47 on May 15, indicating a huge stock market bubble. Since then it's shot up further to the ever more astronomical level of 21.73, according to the Wall Street Journal on Friday, June 19.

21.73 is far above the historical average of 14. Furthermore, it was 18 just a year ago, and has been increasing rapidly since then, indicating that the Wall Street stock market bubble is accelerating, just as the Shanghai stock market bubble has been accelerating during the last year. Generational Dynamics predicts that a panic will occur, and that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

Tick-tock tick-tock, Greece's clock is running down

Thousands of protesters gathered in Syntagma (Constitution) Square in Athens on Sunday to demand that Greece's government not give in to the demands of the lending institutions. Those demands are to increase taxes and reduce pension benefits by increasing the retirement age.

The protests were organized by left-wing parties and trade unions. According to polls, the Greek people want Greece to remain in the euro, but also want more benefits such as an increase in the minimum wage. In other words, the Greek protestors are demanding to return to the old days, when they could spend all they want with no care or worry.

That's the crux of the problem. A lot of people are recommending that the lending institutions just give in to the Greek government, and forgive their current debt. Unfortunately, everyone knows what would happen next. Greece would increase the minimum wage, increase pension benefits, hire more public employees, and soon end up owing just as much as before. That situation is politically untenable for the rest of Europe.

I've been saying for years that there's no solution to the Greek fiscal crisis. And by that I'm not saying that that the Greeks and the lending institutions haven't yet been clever enough to think up a solution. I'm saying that no solution exists. When no solution exists, then the Law of Unintended Consequences kicks in, and we may now be close to that time.

So on Monday there's going to be another Eurogroup meeting in Brussels. Usually, the Eurogroup meetings are attended by each eurozone country's finance minister. But Monday's meeting will be extraordinary in that eurozone heads of governments will be in attendance.

According to reports, Greece's government will be presented with two options: to either accept the reforms proposed by Greece’s lending institutions, potentially with some Greek amendments, or to prepare his country for a default.

Others have mentioned a third option: Kick the can down the road by providing a loan for just enough money to get through to the end of the year. In January there was a compromise that kicked the can down the road to June, so a new compromise would do the same until December, and then we would start all over again.

In 8 days, Greece has to pay 1.5 billion euros to the International Monetary Fund (IMF), or go into default. Tick-tock, tick-tock. Kathimerini and Irish Times and CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Jun-15 World View -- China's bubble stock market plunges 13% in one week thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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21-Jun-15 World View -- Russia makes a controversial deal to lease Siberia land to China

Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia makes a controversial deal to lease Siberia land to China


Landscapes in Russia's Trans-Baikal territory (Itar-Tass)
Landscapes in Russia's Trans-Baikal territory (Itar-Tass)

Russia is planning to least to a Chinese company for 49 years 115,000 hectares (284,050 acres) of land to grow crops and rear livestock in eastern Siberia. The lease will be at the rate of 250 rubles (about $4.63) per hectare, totaling $26 million, plus investments worth around 3 billion yuans ($448 million).

The land is in in the Trans-Baikal region on the border with China in Russia's Federal District of Siberia. This announcement has provoked nationalists in Moscow and Siberia, who may welcome China's investments, but are unhappy with the influx of ethnic Chinese that would enter the region.

This caused an uproar in social media, with comments like, "China’s creeping expansion in Russia has begun" and "the Motherland is being sold out piece by piece."

This has forced Russian officials to call concerns about Chinese expansion a "myth." According to one Russian analyst:

"There are fears of irrational nature about China in society.

China is perceived in Russian consciousness as something alien and different compared with western culture. Besides, China is developing so swiftly that many Russians fear that it may suppress Russia. ...

[Also,] China possesses some of the world’s most advanced agricultural technologies and could help Russia in this respect."

However, other analysts are raising concerns about proposed terms of the deal that Russian officials are rarely mentioning: namely that the Chinese plan a "large-scale" migration to the leased Russian lands.

According to a Russian analysis, quoting Chinese media:

"Leasing Russian land to the Chinese , apparently, goes far beyond a purely agricultural enterprise.

China has its own requirements for the project: ... 'If you can't legally solve the problem of large-scale involvement of the Chinese labor force, any long-term cooperation with Chinese agricultural enterprises [is] out of the question," [according to China's] 'Huanqiu Shibao newspaper.' In other words, the Chinese say that the existing border and migration regime with Russia do not suit them. ...

[Russians] are wary of China's economic expansion in the light of China's territorial claims on Russia. ... Beijing is well aware that the issue of delivery of Russian land is not solved in the administration of the Trans-Baikal Territory. That is why Beijing calls a long-term transfer of land the "ideological emancipation" of Russia to China. ...

[The letter of intent for the lease] indicates that the project will be implemented only with "large-scale" Chinese migration to Russia. ... So, under these restrictions, Moscow will have to agree to the abolition of the existing border and migration regime for the Chinese.

Window On Eurasia / Paul Goble and Itar-Tass and Nezavisimaya Gazeta (Trans)

Russia's concerns about China's 'invasion' of the Far East continue

In my recent article "18-Jun-15 World View -- Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe", I quoted an analyst who suggested that Russia's threat to add more than 40 ICBMs to its nuclear arsenal was made because of existential threats from China rather than from Europe.

Several web site readers said that this didn't make sense. One comment said:

"I don't see it. Vladivostok is the home of the Russian Pacific Fleet. Russia has over two dozen nuclear-armed submarines alone, swimming around. Eastern Russia is armed to the teeth to ward off and respond to US attack, a legacy of the Cold War. Russia has been granted port facilities in Vietnam, a long time ally. In addition, Russia has excellent commercial ties with China and has just signed a long term oil deal with them. China and Russia's interests are economically win-win. They each gain from each other's economic strength: raw material (Russia), manufacturing (China). They have a symbiotic economic and political interest in trade with the rest of the world, especially Europe. China would surely benefit from Russian collapse, but only if they could then expropriate, occupy, govern and defend a vast territory - and for what? They already have a sweet deal for the only thing Russia is useful for: raw materials."

It's true that Russia and China have managed to paper over their differences in the last few years, but Russia and China have had centuries of extremely bitter and violent relations, at least since the 13th century Mongol invasion of Russia. As recently as 1969 there was a border war between China and Russia, with the threat of a much wider war.

There is something that China values more than raw materials or even people: land. And that's what at issue in the Trans-Baikal deal in Russia's Federal District of Siberia described above.

The situation in Russia's Federal District of Far East -- which is even farther east than Siberia -- is particularly desperate for Russia. The Far East is an enormous region, but only 7.4 million Russians populate the region. This means that the region acts as a kind of "safety valve" for migrants from northeast China, with its population of 70 million.

According to some estimates, there are 2-5 million Chinese illegal immigrants living in Russia's Far East, and the number is increasing by a million or so every year.

For those who might enjoy some Schadenfreude at Russia's expense, consider the following: Russia justified last year's illegal invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimea peninsula by saying that Russia needed to protect all the Russian citizens living there.

So, as Chinese migrants pour into Russia's Far East, it won't be long before the Chinese can use Russia's argument against Russia: China has to annex Russia's Far East in order to protect all the Chinese citizens living there.

At any rate, the purpose of the article on Russia's nuclear saber-rattling was to make the point that Russia cannot win a conventional war with China in the Far East, and so would have to resort to nuclear weapons, just as Pakistan cannot win a conventional war with India, and would have to resort to nuclear weapons, which might be why Russia is adding nuclear ICBMs to its inventory. ABC News (2014) and Jamestown (2014)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-Jun-15 World View -- Russia makes a controversial deal to lease Siberia land to China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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20-Jun-15 World View -- The Gathering Storm: The accelerating surge in refugees, slaves and terrorists

Human slavery at the highest level in human history

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

The Gathering Storm


Accelerating growth in refugees and displaced persons (UNHCR)
Accelerating growth in refugees and displaced persons (UNHCR)

When Winston Churchill wrote his monumental six-volume history of World War II, he titled the first volume The Gathering Storm, he described the signs that a world war was approaching. He particularly focused on the Nazis in Germany, and their massive increase in military power, particularly in air power, which Churchill foresaw would put Britain at existential risk.

I've written many articles about China's massive growth in military power, particularly in ballistic and hypersonic missiles, whose only purpose is to destroy American cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers. China is preparing to launch a war against the United States today, just as Hitler was preparing to attack Britain, and that's part of the Gathering Storm today.

But there's another aspect to the gathering storm -- the sudden accelerating world growth in refugees, slaves and terrorists. This is a major trend that's destabilizing the world, and brings us closer to the beginning of the Clash of Civilizations world war.

The sudden accelerating growth in refugees and displaced persons

As the above graph shows, the number of people forced to flee their homes was fairly steady throughout the 2000s, but since 2010, and especially since the Arab Awakening in the Mideast, the number has rapidly accelerated, growing exponentially. From 2000-2010, the number was around 40 million. But then the number started rapidly accelerating, reaching 60 million in 2014.

This shouldn't be a surprise to anyone who's been watching the news for the last year, as there's one refugee crisis after another, whether in Europe, in southeast Asia or the southern border of the United States.

The sources of these refugees and displaced persons are mainly the wars in Syria, Iraq, Sudan and Afghanistan.

A small percentage are Christian, such as those from Central America or Central African Republic, but most are Muslim, whether it's Muslims killing Muslims in the Mideast or Africa, or Buddhists killing Muslims in Myanmar (Burma).

I've mentioned this several times in the past, because it's quite remarkable. Most people focus on Muslim militias or jihadists killing people, but I believe that the most important fact is that Muslims are seemingly under attack around the world, usually by other Muslims. And this has led to millions more Muslim refugees around the world as well.

According to the UNHCR report, at least 15 conflicts have erupted or reignited in the past five years: eight in Africa (Côte d'Ivoire, Central African Republic, Libya, Mali, northeastern Nigeria, Democratic Republic of Congo, South Sudan and this year in Burundi); three in the Middle East (Syria, Iraq, and Yemen); one in Europe (Ukraine) and three in Asia (Kyrgyzstan, and in several areas of Myanmar and Pakistan).

According to UN High Commissioner for Refugees António Guterres:

"We are witnessing a paradigm change, an unchecked slide into an era in which the scale of global forced displacement as well as the response required is now clearly dwarfing anything seen before.

It is terrifying that on the one hand there is more and more impunity for those starting conflicts, and on the other there is seeming utter inability of the international community to work together to stop wars and build and preserve peace."

There's an irony to this. After World War II, the United Nations, along with the United States as Policeman of the World, was set up to try to "stop wars and preserve peace."

But today, the "utter inability of the international community" is caused on the one hand because two of the worst criminal nations -- China for annexing other countries' territories in the South China Sea, and Russia for invading and annexing parts of Ukraine, and also supplying weapons for Bashar al-Assad's genocide in Syria -- are on the UN Security Council, with veto power that prevents the UN from even attempting to stop conflicts. Working together and supporting each other, the criminal nations Russia and China have crippled the United Nations and made it a laughingstock.

As for the United States, Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate President Harry Truman's 1947 Truman Doctrine, which did much to preserve peace for decades, with the most damaging example being the flip-flop about the "red line" of al-Assad's use of chemical weapons.

In his book, "The Gathering Storm," Churchill tells his response to Hitler's occupation of Austria in March 1938:

"Europe is confronted with a programme of aggression, nicely calculated and timed, unfolding stage by stage, and there is only one choice open... either to submit, like Austria, or else to take effective measures while time remains to ward off danger. ...

If a number of States were assembled around Great Britain and France in solemn treaty for mutual defense against aggression; ...and if it were done in the year 1938... then I say that you might even now arrest this approaching war."

This is exactly what's happening today in Ukraine, the South China Sea and the Mideast. There's a Gathering Storm today, just as there was in 1938, and the result is going to be catastrophic. UNHCR and CS Monitor and National Churchill Museum

Human slavery at the highest level in human history


Countries with the highest numbers of slaves, by percentage of population (Washington Post)
Countries with the highest numbers of slaves, by percentage of population (Washington Post)

There's been a lot of nonsense written this week following the Charleston SC terrorist killing, as if the United States invented slavery. Slavery has existed since the start of the human race, and it still exists today. It's estimated that there are 30-40 million slaves in the world today, the highest number in history.

According to Free the Slaves, the African country Mauritania has the highest percentage of slavery in its population: 4%. India has the largest number of people in slavery: 14 million.

There's also slavery in the United States: it's estimated that there are 60,000 slaves in the US today. Would you like to own a slave? Well, you could travel to Mauritania and buy one there, as some people have done.

The most common forms of slavery are:

Other terms that describe slavery are: debt bondage, bonded labor, attached labor, restavec (a child in Haiti sent by her parents to work for someone else), forced labor, indentured servitude and human trafficking.

Today, the world has the highest number of refugees in history, and the highest number of slaves in history. I haven't seen any figures that relate these, there have been a number of news stories that describe the connection.

These stories describe how Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) have been enslaving many of the people they capture in Syria and Iraq, such as the sexual slavery of Yazidi girls and women. Also, refugees fleeing from countries like Syria or Eritrea or Myanmar often promise to pay money to human traffickers to take them to other places, such as Indonesia, Australia or Europe. At some point during the journey, the traffickers may demand that the refugee call home to ask his family for money, and if that's not possible, then the refugee is sold into slavery.

Although slavery is illegal in every country in the world, slave owners, whether in the US or elsewhere, have very effective techniques for keeping control of their slaves, usually by telling them that their families will be killed if they cause trouble. Slaves in America are often forced to work as prostitutes or as migrant laborers.

India, with 14 million slaves, suffers from all forms of slavery. Although the caste system has become illegal, there are still many children who are born into slavery. Girls from underprivileged classes are particularly vulnerable to sexual slavery, sometimes under the guise of "child marriages." Washington Post and Free The Slaves and Walk Free

State Dept: Dramatic rise in terrorism from 2013 to 2014

According to a new report by the State Dept., the number of terrorist attacks increased 35% from 2013 to 2014, and the number of people killed by terrorist grew 81%.

More than 60 percent of all attacks took place in five countries: Iraq, Pakistan, Afghanistan, India, and Nigeria. And 78% of all fatalities due to terrorist attacks also took place in five countries: Iraq, Nigeria, Afghanistan, Pakistan, and Syria.

According to the report, the world's biggest national sponsor of terrorism is Iran. Iran has continued support for radical Palestinian groups in Gaza, Hezbollah in Lebanon and various groups in Iraq, including a Shiite militia designated as a terrorist group. According to the report, "In 2014, Iran continued to provide arms, financing, training, and the facilitation of primarily Iraqi Shia and Afghan fighters to support the Assad regime’s brutal crackdown that has resulted in the deaths of at least 191,000 people in Syria."

The report also singled out Boko Haram in northern Nigeria, with "a penchant for the use of brutal tactics, which included stonings, indiscriminate mass casualty attacks, and kidnapping children for enslavement."

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the world is going deeper and deeper into a generational Crisis era, and headed for a Clash of Civilizations world war. And as I've been writing for years, Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Arab countries will be enemies of the West, including the U.S., India, Russia and Iran.

In this article, we've described three major trends -- the accelerating growth in the number of refugees, and the historically high numbers of slaves and terrorist acts -- that are contributing to the Gathering Storm that will lead to this war. We can't predict when it will start (or maybe, with the entire Mideast already in flames, it's started already), but we can be certain that it's coming. Washington Post and US State Dept.

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-Jun-15 World View -- The Gathering Storm: The accelerating surge in refugees, slaves and terrorists thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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19-Jun-15 World View -- Emergency Eurogroup summit called for Monday to deal with likely Greece default

Fistfight breaks out at Yemen peace talks in Geneva

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Fistfight breaks out at Yemen peace talks in Geneva


Hamza al-Houthi throws back a shoe thrown at him on Thursday (AFP)
Hamza al-Houthi throws back a shoe thrown at him on Thursday (AFP)

It looks like the United Nations sponsored Yemen peace talks in Geneva are not going to end the war in Yemen after all.

A news conference given by Hamza al-Houthi, the head of the Houthi delegation, was interrupted when an anti-Houthi protestor, a woman in a pink headscarf, threw a shoe at al-Houthi, calling him a "criminal." He caught the shoe and threw it back. There followed a fistfight between the Houthi supporters and protesters, before the latter were escorted out.

Meanwhile, the fighting is continuing in Yemen. There are daily air strikes by the Saudi coalition, mostly at Houthi targets in the capital city Sanaa. Iran-backed Houthis are battling Saudi-backed Sunni tribesmen in several places. Each side gives a daily press briefing explaining why they're the good guys and the others are the bad guys. Internet trolls on both sides abound. France24 and Daily Star (Beirut)

Report: Iran's Supreme Leader has fired Qassam Soleimani in Syria

According to a report in Debka's subscriber-only newsletter (sent to me by a subscriber), Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei has relieved Gen. Qassem Soleimani in charge of his Syria command. I like to reference Debka's newsletter because it contains valuable insights into what's going on, but it's written from Israel's point of view, and sometimes gets things wrong.

Soleimani is the commander of Iran's Al Qods Brigades and supreme commander of Iran forces in the Middle East. According to the report:

"This was taken as a major affront by the elite arm of the Revolutionary Guards Corps (IRGC).

The ayatollah's marching order left Soleimani in charge of Iran's military and intelligence operations in Iraq, Yemen and Lebanon for the time being, but excluded Syria, where military setbacks were piling up too critically to overlook. The Al Qods chief's promise of "major developments," on June 2 -- after he had rushed over to Damascus to deal with the crisis of Palmyra's fall to the Islamic State -- turned out to be empty rhetoric. His bravado in stating "In the next few days the world will be pleasantly surprised from what we (the IRGC) working with Syrian military commanders are preparing," was not been followed up. The suggested dispatch of thousands of Iranian troops to the Assad regime's rescue never materialized. ...

Since then, the plight of the Syrian regime has gone from bad to worse, with the Islamic State and Syrian rebels taking turns cutting off chunks of territory; Hezbollah stalled in its effort to dislodge rebel forces from the Qalamoun Mountains and, worse still, helpless to stem the war's spillover into Lebanon.

The Iranian command governing the two campaigns has ground to a halt pending Tehran's appointment of a new boss to replace Soleimani."

In fact, Soleimani didn't really do very well in Iraq, either. Originally, Soleimani and his Shia militias were going to recapture Tikrit from ISIS. He was going to do it within a few days, without the help of US airstrikes. Instead, Soleimani and his Shia militias had to retreat, and Soleimani fled to Tehran. Afterwards, the Iraqi army captured Tikrit with the help of US airstrikes. ( "24-Mar-15 World View -- Iraq's battle for Tikrit reaches a standstill, humiliating Iran") Debka (subscription)

Emergency Eurogroup summit called for Monday to deal with likely Greece default

Thursday was supposed to be the "drop dead" date for reaching a deal so that Greece could make its 1.6 billion euro debt payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by June 30. According to analysts, Thursday's meeting of the Eurogroup finance ministers was the last chance to make a deal and still have time get the deal approved by the German parliament in time to release bailout funds to Greece by June 30.

However, Thursday's meeting ended with no deal. Greece has been asked to reduce pension costs by increasing retirement dates over the next ten years, and to increase its value-added tax. Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras has refused to do any of this. The discussions have become extremely acrimonious, and many European officials have expressed the feeling, one way or another, that they're sick of Greece, and don't care what happens.

According to one analyst I heard, Thursday wasn't really a final "drop dead" date. If a deal can be signed by June 30, then the European Central Bank (ECB) could offer Greece a bridge loan, enabling it make its payment to the IMF, until the deal is approved by Germany's parliament, according to this analyst.

This scenario would fit the logic of the "Game of Chicken" that's being played. The logic of the Game of Chicken, where two cars race towards each other at top speed to see who veers first to avoid a collision, is that neither car veers until the last nanosecond, if at all. So we won't actually know until the midnight deadline on June 30 whether Greece will default.

Another analyst pointed out that a default does not mean that Greece has to leave the eurozone. Greece could default within the eurozone and permit harsh capital controls on Greek banks, imposing great hardship on the Greek people for years to come. However, this may not be a politically possible solution, as the Greek people may prefer to return to the drachma currency instead. Either way, the result would be a huge nightmare. Kathimerini (Athens) and Telegraph (London) and Gulf News (Dubai)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-Jun-15 World View -- Emergency Eurogroup summit called for Monday to deal with likely Greece default thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (19-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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18-Jun-15 World View -- Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe

Hamas and Israel discuss a 5-year ceasefire

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe


Putin news conference on Tuesday (Reuters)
Putin news conference on Tuesday (Reuters)

Russia's president Vladimir Putin on Tuesday said that Russia would add more than 40 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs) to its nuclear arsenal this year. As a reason, he expressed concern about anti-missile defenses that Nato is deploying in eastern Europe.

In fact, the US and Poland have been discussing the deployment of American heavy weapons in eastern Europe. Those discussions are a reaction to Russia's invasion and annexation of Ukraine's Crimean peninsula and Russia's invasion of east Ukraine.

Nato has condemned Putin's nuclear announcement as "saber-rattling." According to Nato Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg:

"[Putin was] confirming the pattern and behavior of Russia over a period of time - we have seen Russia is investing more in defense in general and in its nuclear capability in particular."

However, according to an analysis by KGS, Europe is the least of Putin's worries, and that the nuclear announcement was really directed at China:

"China is Russia's existential threat. Russian doctrine makes clear that tactical nuclear weapons would be used to defeat a Chinese attack. The willingness to use nuclear weapons to stop a conventional attack is the key insight from Putin's statement.

NATO and the US announced that they will position heavy equipment for armored cavalry or armored infantry units in the Baltic members of NATO. The stated purpose is to deter and defeat Russian aggression against NATO members. The US can move soldiers much faster than heavy equipment. In this solution, the major delay is the time it takes civil airliners to fly from the US to Vilnius, Riga and Tallinn.

With reasonable and old fashioned intelligence warning, NATO could bring armored units with prepositioned equipment in the Baltics to full combat readiness faster than the Russians can field a combat attack force. NATO planners need to understand that in every race to mobilize, NATO beats Russia, provided US equipment is prepositioned.

That leads to the second part of the discussion. If the US and NATO are clever enough to find a way to stop Russian conventional forces, Russia has few military options other than nuclear escalation, tactical or strategic. That makes Russia's strategic position much like that of Pakistan.

After three general wars and two crises that approached general war, it is now clear that Pakistan cannot defeat India in a general conventional war. US intelligence analysts need to understand this as settled lore from decades of US intelligence experience: Pakistan cannot win a conventional war against India.

In the near-war crises of 2001-2002, India achieved full combat readiness in less than three weeks, while the Pakistan Army, under President General [Pervez] Musharraf, failed to achieve full combat readiness. Pakistan's failure to generate its conventional military power meant that its leaders thought they had no alternative to activating Pakistan's strategic nuclear missile forces to stop an Indian conventional attack..

That is the significance of Putin's message. Russia cannot defend the national territory without using nuclear weapons. Pakistan and North Korea are in precisely the same position. That position does not imply that a conventional confrontation must go nuclear. It means that such a confrontation could go nuclear.

Russia's nuclear threats are serious because of the weaknesses of Russia's conventional forces. A key question is how will NATO respond."

CS Monitor and Reuters and KGS Nightwatch (Subscription)

Chad bans the burka after two suicide bombings

Two suicide bombings targeting the presidential palace and police headquarters in Chad's capital city N’Djamena on Tuesday left 27 people dead and over 100 wounded. Although no one has claimed responsibility, few people doubt that the perpetrators were Boko Haram.

In reaction, there's been a major security clampdown in N'Djamena. Central areas have been sealed off, checkpoints have been set up across the city, and vehicles with smoked glass windows have been banned from the roads.

The most controversial security change has been the banning the burka and the full-face veil, because they're being used as "camouflage," making it possible to hide explosives within clothing. Boko Haram militants have increasingly been using female suicide bombers in Nigeria, as they are more likely to smuggle bombs into public places without detection.

The ban will apply everywhere, not just public places. Not only will the ban be enforce, but security forces will go into markets and burn all full-face veils sold in markets. AFP and Vanguard (Nigeria) and BBC

Mahmoud Abbas dissolves the Palestinian unity government

On April 23 of last year, the two major Palestinian factions signed a "Palestinian unity agreement," as a prerequisite to forming a State of Palestine. The agreement provided for a series of steps to unify the two factions into a common government. But now, after over a year of bitter disagreements, Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas has announced that he's going to dissolve the unity government. According to a spokesman, "The government will resign in the next 24 hours because this one is weak and there is no chance that Hamas will allow it to work in Gaza."

It's not clear whether Mahmoud Abbas, born 1935, really means it, or whether it's a negotiating position. During the past few years, Abbas has said on several occasions that he personally would resign as president, but changed his mind later.

In fact, Hamas has already said that it would not accept the dissolution:

"Hamas rejects any one-sided change in the government without the agreement of all parties.

No one told us anything about any decision to change and no one consulted with us about any change in the unity government. Fatah [Abbas] acted on its own in all regards."

If the unity government is really dissolved, then it would put the entire State of Palestine issue into question, since you can't have a State of Palestine unless you have a government. Ma'an News (Bethlehem) and AFP and Khaleej Times (Dubai)

Hamas and Israel discuss a 5-year ceasefire

The threatened dissolution of the unity government comes at a time when there are reports that Hamas and Israel are negotiating a five-year ceasefire that would partially end the blockade of Gaza by opening a seaport.

Hamas is under pressure from a number of directions. Hamas was defeated in last summer's Gaza war, and got nothing out of it. Furthermore, Hamas is now one of the "older generations" in Gaza, and is finding it difficult to control the young militant Salafist groups. So Hamas officials may have decided that negotiating with Israel may be their best bet. However, few people believe that anything firm will come out of the negotiations.

There has been one immediate change. Because of the negotiations, Egypt has eased the restrictions on the Rafah crossing, and is permitting people to travel freely between Gaza and Egypt. Jerusalem Post

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-Jun-15 World View -- Russia's 'saber-rattling' nuclear threat may be directed at China, not Europe thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (18-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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17-Jun-15 World View -- China tests hypersonic missile designed to defeat American missile defenses

Greece's bitter PM Tsipras hurls ultimatums and insults at IMF

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China says it's finished building artificial islands in South China Sea


Numerous Chinese dredging vessels around an artificial island in May 2 photo taken by P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft
Numerous Chinese dredging vessels around an artificial island in May 2 photo taken by P-8A Poseidon surveillance aircraft

For the past year, China has been creating new, artificial islands in the South China Sea in regions which have historically belonged to other countries, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines. China has been using aggressive military tactics to deprive Vietnamese and Philippine fishermen of their historical fishing grounds, and made demands that the U.S. end its surveillance activities in international waters in the South China Sea. Tensions escalated substantially last month when China repeatedly demanded that an American P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane leave the area. ( "26-May-15 World View -- China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable")

China now says that it's completed its artificial islands project. However, that doesn't mean that China is becoming less aggressive militarily; to the contrary, it means that China is moving on to the next phase, building military structures on the artificial islands.

According to Chinese media:

"The islands and reefs after completion will not serve as China's military outposts in the Nansha Islands. Apart from satisfying the need of necessary military defense, they will be mainly for civilian use."

These two sentences contradict each other. The first sentence says "no military outposts," but the second sentence mentions "satisfying the need of military defense," which means that the islands will be used as military outposts. This is no surprise to anyone, as China prepares for war with its neighbors and with the United States. VOA and Global Times (Beijing)

China tests hypersonic missile designed to defeat American missile defenses

China has confirmed the fourth test, on June 7, of the new Wu-14 hypersonic glide strike missile designed to defeat American missile defenses.

During a war, the hypersonic missile is carried up by an ordinary ballistic missile, but is then released while still in the atmosphere. It can then glide almost horizontally to its target at almost 8,000 miles per hour. It can easily change direction in flight, to evade missile defense. The systems provide enhanced precision, speed, range, maneuverability and multiple-targeting, and are capable of carrying a nuclear warhead. In actual practice, several will be launched at once, making a missile defense almost impossible.

According to Chinese analysts, the missile test was timed to send a threatening message to the American military to stop doing surveillance in the South China Sea. Washington Free Beacon

Greece's bitter PM Tsipras hurls ultimatums and insults at IMF

The relationship between Greece and its creditors has been getting more and more bitterly acrimonious with every day that passes by, as the "drop dead" date of June 30 approaches. On Tuesday, in a speech to Parliament, Greece's far left prime minister Alexis Tsipras accused the International Monetary Fund of "criminal responsibility":

"The time has come for the IMF’s proposals to be judged not just by us but especially by Europe.

The IMF has criminal responsibility for today’s situation. ...

Right now, what dominates is the IMF’s harsh views on tough measures, and Europe’s on denying any discussion over debt viability.

The fixation on cuts... is most likely part of a political plan... to humiliate an entire people that has suffered in the past five years through no fault of its own.

The time has come for the IMF’s proposals to be judged in public ... by Europe,” he told the MPs of his radical left Syriza party."

The IMF has insisted on further cuts to Greece's pension system, and a rise in value-added taxes.

Jean-Claude Jüncker, the president of the European commission, shot back by essentially accusing Tsipras of lying to the Greek people: "I don’t care about the Greek government, I do care about the Greek people. The debate in Greece and outside Greece would be easier if the Greek government would tell exactly what the Commission ... is really proposing." He indicated that Tsipras was lying about the value-added tax.

A spokesman for Greece's opposition New Democracy party, the party that governed Greece prior to Tsipras's victory in January, accused Tsipras of intentionally forcing Greece to leave the euro currency:

"The negotiations are not starting now; instead the mocking of the Greek people is reaching its peak. Mr Tsipras is pushing the country toward a dead end, the bill is becoming astronomical. Is it possible this was their secret agenda?"

Guardian (London) and Kathimerini and Bloomberg and Kathimerini

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-Jun-15 World View -- China tests hypersonic missile designed to defeat American missile defenses thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (17-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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16-Jun-15 World View -- France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses

South Africa defies International Criminal Court, al-Bashir flies free

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

EU's new migrant quota system appears to be near collapse


Migrants in Italy's border with France demanding that France let them in (EPA)
Migrants in Italy's border with France demanding that France let them in (EPA)

In late May, the EU government in Brussels enacted a quota system that would distribute some 60,000 migrants to different countries, based on a calculation that looked at each country's size, GDP and unemployment rate. France has a quota of 7,000. Germany has a quota of 8,700. Sweden has a quota of 1,300.

However, Britain and Ireland opted out, and Denmark and Poland said they also would do so. Then France became reluctant, and Italy was furious that it may be left to deal with the tsunami of migrants by itself. So now, just three weeks later, the whole quota system appears to be collapsing.

So Italy is threatening to retaliate by issuing so-called Schengen visas to migrants. The Schengen treaty is a core principle on which the European Union was founded, in that it permits free travel across borders throughout most of the EU. In fact, the EU is staging special events this week to celebrate 30 years of borderless travel in the Schengen area.

If this threat is carried out, and Italy issues thousands of Schengen visas to migrants, then the visas will cease to be honored, and another core part of the European Union will be over.

EU officials will meet on Tuesday in Luxembourg to try to resolve the problem. Guardian (London) and ITV (London)

France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses

For several days, about 200 migrants from Africa have been trying to cross the border between France and Italy, but French police have been blocking their entrance.

That was just the latest incident in a continuing issue. In the preceding week, 1,439 illegal immigrants had been arrested by law enforcement authorities in France, and over 1,000 were forced to return to Italy.

French officials say that they're following the letter of the law, which says that migrants must be processed by the country in which the first land. According to France's interior minister Bernard Cazeneuve:

"The Dublin rules must be respected. When migrants arrive in France that have been through Italy and registered there, European law applies and that means they must be returned to Italy."

Italian officials are becoming increasingly furious that they're being forced to deal with the migrant problem almost alone. Even under the proposed quota system, only 24,000 immigrants from Italy would be distributed to other countries, a small fraction of the the 100,000 to 200,000 immigrants expected in 2015.

Italy's prime minister Mario Renzi said on Sunday that the severity of the crisis "should not be underestimated," adding, "Redistributing just 24,000 people is almost a provocation."

According to Renzi, if Italy does not receive help and solidarity from other EU members in welcoming immigrants, then Italy will institute a "Plan B that would be a wound inflicted on Europe." He didn't say what Plan B would entail. Vice News and Independent (London) and Reuters

South Africa defies International Criminal Court, al-Bashir flies free

As we reported yesterday, international law required South Africa to arrest Sudan's president Omar al-Bashir and turn him over to the International Criminal Court (ICC), which has charged him with war crimes for the rape, torture and slaughter of hundreds of thousands of civilians by the Sudan government forces in the Darfur genocide.

South Africa is a signatory to the ICC charter, and so was obligated to arrest al-Bashir while he was on South African soil attending an African Union summit. The case was even being contested in a South African court. But while this court was in session, al-Bashir was permitted to board his private jet and return to Sudan.

This incident throws the future of the ICC into doubt. The ICC depends on member countries to meet their commitments. The South African government violated the rulings of its own courts, as well as its contract with the ICC. CNN and Al Jazeera

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-Jun-15 World View -- France, Italy have bitter feud over migrants as quota system collapses thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (16-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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15-Jun-15 World View -- Darfur genocide overshadows women's empowerment summit in South Africa

Everyone prepares for the worst, as Greece bailout talks collapse again

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Darfur genocide overshadows women's empowerment summit in South Africa


One of the many huge refugee camps that house millions of displaced Darfurians
One of the many huge refugee camps that house millions of displaced Darfurians

This year's African Union leaders summit took place on Sunday in Johannesburg, South Africa, with the nice politically correct theme "A Year of Women Empowerment and Development towards Africa's Agenda 2063."

However, all the wonderful speeches about empowering women were overshadowed by demands that South Africa arrest one of the attending heads of state, Sudan's president Omar al-Bashir, who is wanted by the International Criminal Court (ICC) over alleged war crimes and crimes against humanity committed during the Darfur conflict in western Sudan.

The ICC arrest warrant was issued in 2009, but al-Bashir has never been arrested because Sudan is not a signatory to the ICC charter. Furthermore, al-Bashir has been going to great lengths over the years to make sure that he never travels to a country that IS a signatory to the ICC, since that country would be obligated under international law to arrest him and turn him over to the ICC.

So it's a very big surprise to a lot of people that al-Bashir decided to travel to the African Union on Saturday, since it's in South Africa, which IS a signatory to the ICC. Somehow, some way, al-Bashir must have received a guarantee from South African president Jacob Zuma that he wouldn't be arrested.

However, the plan has been at least temporarily thwarted because an activist group got a South African court to detain al-Bashir and prevent him from leaving the country until the court can decide whether South Africa is obliged to honor the ICC warrant.

There are sharp differences of opinion:

The court should read a decision on Monday or Tuesday. CNN and Mail & Guardian (South Africa) and Independent (South Africa)

History of Darfur genocide

The Darfur genocide has been in the news for over ten years. Seven or eight years ago, it was sometimes called "everybody's favorite African war" since George Clooney and other movie stars, and politicians like Susan Rice, Nancy Pelosi and Joe Biden have all made "Stop the genocide" and "Save Darfur" and "Enough is enough" part of a very stylish and progressive do-good campaign. During the 2007 Iraq surge, Joe Biden even wanted to withdraw all the forces from Iraq, and pour them into the Darfur war. The Darfur war was VERY chic and trendy, unlike the Iraq war.

Low level violence began in the 1970s between two ethnic groups, one of farmers (the "Africans") and the other of camel herders (the "Arabs"), in the usual disputes over land and water. The violence increased from year to year, and in the 1990s, Sudan's government in Khartoum delegated the responsibility of policing the region to the Arab Janjaweed militia, formed from certain groups of herders.

Violence continued to increase, and by 2003, it had turned into a full-scale generational crisis war. (A detailed history can be found in my 2007 article, "Ban Ki Moon blames Darfur genocide on global warming") At that point, the Janjaweed militias (herders) became extremely violent, with a program of massacres, mass murders, rapes, genocide and scorched earth.

As the slaughters and rapes continued, the glamorous politicians and movie stars paid visits and expressed outrage. However, the fun finally wore off, and in 2009 the International Criminal Court (ICC) issued an arrest warrant for Sudan's president Omar al-Bashir. According to the warrant:

"[T]here are reasonable grounds to believe that, insofar as it was a core component of the GoS [Government of Sudan] counter-insurgency campaign, there was a GoS policy to unlawfully attack that part of the civilian population of Darfur — belonging largely to the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa groups — perceived by the GoS as ... opposing the GoS in the ongoing armed conflict in Darfur. ...

[T]here are also reasonable grounds to believe that, as part of the GoS's unlawful attack on the above-mentioned part of the civilian population of Darfur and with knowledge of such attack, GoS forces subjected, throughout the Darfur region, (i) hundreds of thousands of civilians, belonging primarily to the Fur, Masalit and Zaghawa groups, to acts of forcible transfer; (ii) thousands of civilian women, belonging primarily to these groups, to acts of rape; and (iii) civilians, belonging primarily to the same groups, to acts of torture."

The United Nations has mounted a massive peacekeeping force, to try to end the Darfur war, but in fact it's nowhere near over. In fact, a UN report in January indicates that the war considerably worsened in 2014, with more than 3,000 villages targeted by forces aligned with the Government of Sudan, destroying the villages and forcing 400,000 people to flee for their lives. ICC arrest warrant (PDF) and AP and DabangaSudan

Rwanda versus Darfur versus Central African Republic civil wars

The Darfur civil war and the Central African Republic (CAR) civil war are ongoing wars today, while the 1994 Rwanda civil war ended long ago. Let's compare the three.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, every generational crisis war must end in what I call an "explosive climax," a genocidal event that's so horrible that the survivors on both the winning and losing sides vow to never let it happen again. In the Rwanda civil war, the explosive climax was the slaughter of some 800,000 Tutsis by the Hutus. Since then, Rwanda has gone through a Recovery Era in an attempt to prevent any recurrence, and it's been possible without any UN peacekeeping forces.

But in Darfur and CAR, there are ambitious United Nations / African Union peacekeeping forces. The UN is spending huge amounts of money trying to create peace -- get the same results as in Rwanda, but without the explosive climax. That's impossible. It's the explosive climax, the horrific event that ends the war, that brings about the desired peace.

There are millions of Darfurians in refugee camps, under the protection of the UN peacekeeping forces. The UN forces are preventing the explosive climax, but they can't do so forever. Those millions of people are sitting ducks. At some point, the peacekeeping forces will withdraw, and the Arab militias will go through those refugee camps like a hot knife through butter, raping, torturing and slaughtering anyone they can. That will be the explosive climax, and after that, peace can come to Darfur once again.

Everyone prepares for the worst, as Greece bailout talks collapse again

With a big 1.5 billion euro debt payment due on June 30, EU-Greece weekend talks to negotiate a new deal have, once again, collapsed. Increasingly, markets are expecting that Greece will default, and be forced to leave the euro currency. The Europeans and the Greeks are all thought to have prepared some plan in case the worst happens, and that seems increasingly likely. Dow Jones

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-Jun-15 World View -- Darfur genocide overshadows women's empowerment summit in South Africa thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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14-Jun-15 World View -- Jihadist Attack on Druze population could bring Israel into Syria war

Druze community split on Syria war after al-Nusra attack

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Druze community split on Syria war after al-Nusra attack


Druze clerics in a meeting in Beirut on Friday (AP)
Druze clerics in a meeting in Beirut on Friday (AP)

The Druze community, with about one million living in Syria and Lebanon, and 104,000 living in Israel, have stayed out of the Syria war, although they are split in supporting or opposing Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad.

However, on Wednesday, militants from the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) attacked a Druze community in the village of Qalb Lawzah, in Idlib province in Syria, and killed at least 20 Druze men and women. This has evoked strong nationalism among the Druze in Lebanon.

One Lebanese Druze leader who supports al-Assad, Wiam Wahhab, made a televised speech, saying,

"We will not accept to sell Druze blood!

[The Druze in Syria] are ready to defeat the terrorists, but what they lack is arms. Lebanon’s Druze are ready to help, we are ready to form an army of 200,000 fighters to defend the Druze!"

However, the principal Lebanese Druze leader, Walid Jumblatt, who opposes al-Assad, said on Twitter:

"Any inciting rhetoric will not be beneficial, and you should remember that Bashar Assad’s policies pushed Syria into this chaos."

An al-Nusra leader on Saturday apologized for the murder of the 20 Druze civilians, but it's unclear whether the Druze public will accept the apology in view of the 20 murders. Daily Star (Beirut) and Times of Israel

History of the Druze religion

The Druze came into existence as a secret society, and only announced itself to the world in the early 1000s (11th century). There was a brief period of proselytizing that ended in 1050. Since then it has been impossible to convert to Druze from any other religion.

The Druze creed arose from a branch of Shia Islam, but it incorporates concepts from Christianity and Judaism, as well from Greek philosophy and Hindu and Buddhist influences.

Like any other society, they have had their generational crisis wars, during some of which they were victims of genocide, and in others they were perpetrators of genocide, making them no different from anyone else. A particularly bloody generational crisis war occurred in 1860 with the Maronite Christians, which is considered a victory by the Druze, resulting in the deaths of 10,000 Christians. It's only been in recent years that the two groups have attempted to reconcile. Jewish Virtual Library

Jihadist Attack on Druze population could bring Israel into Syria war

Israel has been very careful to avoid getting involved in the Syria war, but a recent attack jihadist attack on the Druze ethnic community in Syria may force Israel's hand. The Druze in Syria fear that they'll be left on their own to fight al-Nusra and the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), especially with the Syrian army possibly near total collapse. The Druze consider this to be an existential threat to the entire Druze community.

Thousands of Druze protested in Israel on Saturday, calling on Israel to aid the Druze in Syria. Typical chants were "Stop the massacres," and "We want the Druze among us." According to one Druze Israeli official, "We do not plan to sit idly by while our brothers are being slaughtered in Syria."

From Israel's point of view, the danger is that if jihadist groups start attacking the Druze in Syria, then hundreds of thousands of Druze civilians will pour across the border into Israel, creating a major humanitarian crisis, and forcing Israel to enter the war.

Activists are asking Israel to send arms to the Syrian Druze. If Israel withholds support, it could be held responsible for whatever happens to the Syrian Druze community, including a mass slaughter by jihadists.

On the other hand, Israel may make the choice of sending arms to the Syrian Druze, allowing them to defend themselves. This would mean abandoning the consistent policy of abstaining from direct involvement in that war. It would moreover entail setting up new machinery for establishing, training and arming a Druze army of 20,000 to 30,000 fighting men.

There are also reports that Iran is offering to arm the Druze, something that would give them a great deal of control over the Druze community in Syria and Lebanon.

This is becoming a major political issue in Israel, and there are no easy choices. YNet (Israel) and Debka (Israel) and Fox News

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-Jun-15 World View -- Jihadist Attack on Druze population could bring Israel into Syria war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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13-Jun-15 World View -- Australia accused of paying people smugglers to take migrants to Indonesia

France's Dominique Strauss-Kahn acquitted of 'aggravated pimping'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Australia accused of paying people smugglers to take migrants to Indonesia


The notorious Nauru detention center for migrants
The notorious Nauru detention center for migrants

Indonesian people smugglers who had been on a boat traveling to Australia with 65 people from Bangladesh, Sri Lanka and Myanmar say that Australian authorities prevented them landing on Australian shores, and paid them AUS$5,000 to take the migrants to Indonesia.

This has led to accusations directed at prime minister Tony Abbott that Australia is regularly paying people smugglers to take migrants to other countries. When asked a question about this on a radio show on Friday, he evaded the questioned and alluded to Australia's tough anti-migrant policies:

"What we do is we stop the boats by hook or by crook because that's what we've got to do and that's what we've successfully done and I just don't want to go into the details of how it's done because like a lot of things that law enforcement agencies have to do, it's necessary, it's difficult and at times I suppose it's dangerous work, but we do it and we've stopped the boats. ...

What the government has done is stop the boats. We have stopped the boats. And we've used a whole range of measures. We will do whatever we reasonably can, consistent with the principles of a decent and humane society, to insure that the boats stay stopped, and I am never, never going to apologize."

Indonesian officials are criticizing Abbott's evasion as unethical. Some Australian officials are pointing out that if the charges are true that the government is paying people smugglers, then it will encourage more people smuggling.

The number of migrants reaching Australia has been sharply reduced in recent years because of tough policies that prevent migrants from settling in Australia. Thousands have been sent to a notorious rat-infested detention center on the island of Nauru in Micronesia. In other cases, Australian naval vessels have pulled the migrant boats out into the sea, or transferred the migrants to Cambodia, under terms of a deal made between the two countries. Australian and Jakarta Post and Guardian (London)

Pakistan shuts down 'Save the Children' and threatens other NGOs

Pakistan's government has shut down the aid organization Save the Children, locked and seized their office building in Islamabad, and gave them 15 days to leave the country.

According to Interior Minister Chaudhry Nisar Ali Khan, Pakistan is clamping down on non-government organizations (NGOs) that provide aid:

"We will not allow anyone to work under the table. We will not allow any NGO to work in this country against Pakistan’s interests, culture and values."

He also accused some local NGOs, without naming any, of "taking foreign funding to work on a foreign agenda." He indicated that they were guilty of espionage.

Pakistan's campaign against NGOs is believed to have been triggered by the American administration bragging in 2011 that a vaccination program in Pakistan was used as a cover to locate and capture Osama bin Laden. Save the Children says they had nothing to do with that, but since 2011, every foreign aid program has come under suspicion.

According to the US State Dept., "We are concerned about Pakistan's crackdown on international charitable organizations and other NGOs. ... [Several NGOs] have reported difficulty doing business in Pakistan. This has had a significant negative impact on international partner efforts to support Government of Pakistan priorities." Dawn (Pakistan) and State Dept. and Daily Express (London)

France's Dominique Strauss-Kahn acquitted of 'aggravated pimping'

Dominique Strauss-Kahn (DSK) used to be the head of International Monetary Fund (IMF), a position now held by Christine Lagarde, and he once hoped to run for president of France in the Socialist Party, a role taken over by the current Socialist president François Hollande. But all that came to an end in 2011, when a hotel maid Nafissatou Diallo, accused him of having raped her in a NY city hotel. ( "2-Jul-11 News -- France's politics in turmoil from collapse of Strauss-Kahn rape case")

The rape case collapsed because Diallo was evidently a liar, but she made out pretty well anyway, reportedly collecting $1.4 million in a civil case, and now running her own restaurant in New York.

However, that case opened Pandora's box for DSK, who was next accused by a Paris prosecutor of "aggravated pimping," meaning that he procured prostitutes for parties in Party, Brussels and Washington.

During the trial, DSK said he attended all these parties but said, hilariously, that he didn't know that the girls were prostitutes. Here are some famous DSK quotes from the trial:

When asked by the judge about the presence of prostitutes at the sex orgies, the ex-IMF chief declared: "I am horrified at the practice of using prostitutes."

When quizzed later he said: “Prostitution is an assault on women’s dignity.”

The court also heard DSK comparing prostitutes at orgies to flying fish. "They do exist," he said. "But you don't often see them."

That trial finally concluded on Friday, with the judge agreeing that there was not enough evidence to convict him.

While we're on the subject of rape, it's become a major international issue recently that the Obama administration has been claiming that 25% of all college girls get raped. These figures are parroted by mainstream media like the NY Times and NBC News, whose reporters are too dumb to even bother to check them out. And I've even heard them repeated on the BBC and Al-Jazeera.

These figures on their face are totally ridiculous. No father who actually believed them would send his daughter to a college if he thought there was a 25% chance she would be raped.

Also, imagine the NBC News and NY Times newsrooms, filled with reporters and producers who went to college. If you believe the moronic figures, then those newsrooms must be filled with rapists and rape victims. The same would be true of the White House. If they really believe the figures, then they would have an obligation at least to find out who all the rapists are in their organizations, and get rid of them.

I spent ten years writing a book on gender issues for men, called Fraternizing with the Enemy - A book on gender issues for men and for women who care about men. I researched the whole range of gender issues - divorce, domestic violence, rape, teen motherhood, sexual harassment, child abuse, incest, with an appendix on quotes from feminists that's well worth reading.

In my book, I quoted Katie Roiphe from her 1993 book about her college experience:

"According to the widely quoted Ms. survey, one in four college women is the victim of rape or attempted rape. One in four, I remember standing outside the dining hall in college looking at a purple poster with this statistic written in bold letters. It didn't seem right. If sexual assault was really so pervasive, it seemed strange that the intricate gossip networks hadn't picked up more than one or two shadowy instances of rape. If I was really standing in the middle of an epidemic, a crisis, if 25 percent of my female friends were really being raped, wouldn't I know it?"

In other words, if rape were common in college, she would know a lot of rape victims among her female friends, but she doesn't know any. Once again, if the White House really believes the figures, then they ought to do something about all the rapists working in the White House.

If you actually do the research, as I did, checking many, many sources, then there's no question about the statistics: Only about 0.1% (one-tenth of one percent) of college girls get raped. Even if you make the dubious assumption that as many as 3 out of 4 rapes don't get reported, the total figure is still only 0.75%. It's nowhere near 25%. But 0.1% is politically inconvenient for the Obama administration, so they manufacture the number they want, knowing that today's mainstream media reporters are too stupid to check it out. The Local (France) and France 24 and Daily Mail (London) and Book: Fraternizing with the Enemy (PDF)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-Jun-15 World View -- Australia accused of paying people smugglers to take migrants to Indonesia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (13-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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12-Jun-15 World View -- IMF and ECB walk out of negotiations with Greece

Zimbabwe offers 5 US dollars for 175 quadrillion Zim dollars

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Zimbabwe offers 5 US dollars for 175 quadrillion Zim dollars


Boy carrying Zim dollars
Boy carrying Zim dollars

Zimbabwe citizens still having bank accounts denominated in Zim dollars will have them replaced with accounts in US dollars. Each depositor will receive $5 for any account up to 175 quadrillion dollars. The Zim dollar, which has been completely destroyed the country's genocidal president Robert Mugabe, is finally being buried forever.

It would be hard to choose a country leader anywhere in the world who's more vile than Syria's Bashar al-Assad, but Zimbabwe's 91 year old Robert Mugabe certainly qualifies. Mugabe's actions to transform Zimbabwe, the breadbasket of southern Africa, into a starving disease-ridden country are almost beyond belief. (See "Zimbabwe's 'Liberation Hero' president Robert Mugabe continues to destroy his country" from 2008.)

As recently as the 1999, Zimbabwe was a breadbasket of Africa, exporting up to 500,000 metric tons of surplus food. By 2003, Zimbabwe was so starved that it had to receive 500,000 metric tons in food aid from the U.N.'s World Food Program.

What happened during those three years was a Marxist socialist "land reform" program by Robert Mugabe that confiscated 4,500 white-owned commercial farms and redistributed the property to loyal supporters of his Zanu-PF party -- i.e., members of his own Shona ethnic group. Anyone from the Ndebele tribe, the Shona's centuries old enemy, who objected was killed, tortured or jailed.

Many of the new owners were inexperienced in running large farms, and food production fell dramatically, as only a few hundred of the confiscated farms continued to function normally. Harvests of food staples plummeted by as much as 90%, livestock herds dwindled and production of the main cash crop, tobacco, slumped badly.

The results were dramatic, and show how it's possible for one dictatorial leader to destroy a country single-handedly. A formerly well-fed country had rampant 80% poverty, and the inflation rate went from 700% to 1000% to 10000% to 150000% and continued rising 500 billion percent. In 2009, Zimbabwe switched to a dual-currency economy, accepting the US dollar as valid currency. At that point, the Zimbabwe dollar collapsed completely, and millions of citizens had their saving destroyed.

In addition to having completely destroyed Zimbabwe's economy, Mugabe is best known for his 1984 pacification campaign known as "Operation Gukurahundi" (The rain that washes away the chaff before the spring rain). During that campaign, accomplished with the help of Mugabe's 5th Brigade, trained by North Korea, tens of thousands of people, mostly from the Ndebele tribe, were tortured and slaughtered. All Africa and Zero Hedge

IMF and ECB walk out of negotiations with Greece

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) walked out of talks in Brussels with Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras because the two positions were not getting any closer. According to an IMF spokesman:

"There are major differences between us in most key areas. There has been no progress in narrowing these differences recently and thus we are well away from an agreement.

We remain engaged. The IMF doesn’t leave the table."

European Central Bank (ECB) officials left Brussels as well.

The lenders are demanding that Greece institute reforms to address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies. On Wednesday there were reports that Europe was willing to consider "kicking the can down the road again" by requiring only one reform now, and leaving the others for next year, but nothing has come of that.

European Council President Donald Tusk said: "We need decisions, not negotiations now. There is no more space for gambling; there is no more time for gambling. The day is coming, I am afraid, that someone says the game is over. ... The Greek government has to be, I think, a little bit more realistic."

A Greek official appeared upbeat: "The Greek delegation, as agreed, is ready to intensify deliberations in order to conclude a deal soon, even in the coming days."

Tsipras would like the IMF to completely write off the debt that Greece owes. The IMF can't do that, because they've loaned a lot of money to a lot of other countries, and if Greece's debt were written off, then others would demand the same treatment.

Tsipras can't agree to pension reduction or the other reforms because his government would probably collapse. On Thursday, Greece's Communist party took over the finance ministry, saying Tsipras is the third Prime Minister to sell Greece down the river.

The "final deadline" for a deal is June 18, the date of the next Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers. However, there have been so many "final deadlines" till now, we can't be sure.

It's thought that the "final final deadline" is June 30, when Greece must make a 1.6 billion euro payment to the IMF.

The logic of the Game of Chicken is that neither car veers off until the very last second. So if there's going to be a deal, it will probably occur just a couple of minutes before midnight on June 30. Kathimerini and Reuters

The Greek Tragedy must move to the happy ending

Commenting on Greece's debt crisis, EU Economic Affairs Commissioner Pierre Moscovici said:

"I really like Greek tragedy but now we must move to the happy ending."

Apparently Moscovici knows little about ancient Greek theatre. If he did, then he would know that a comedy has a happy ending, and a Greek tragedy always has a tragic ending. Business Insider

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-Jun-15 World View -- IMF and ECB walk out of negotiations with Greece thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (12-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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11-Jun-15 World View -- Pakistan reacts as Indian forces cross border and strike militants in Myanmar

Reports of breakthrough in Greece's debt crisis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Indian forces cross Myanmar border to strike at militants


Indian army forces
Indian army forces

For the first time, Indian special forces crossed the border into Myanmar (Burma) and conducted a cross-border operation to strike at the terrorist group National Socialist Council of Nagaland – Khaplang (NSCN-K). The Khaplang terrorists are based in Myanmar, but have conducted numerous terrorist attacks in northeast India. The retaliation was triggered by an ambush last week on Thursday (4-Jun) on Indian soil that killed 18 soldiers. The terrorists escaped police and security forces by running back across the border into Myanmar.

Early Tuesday morning, a team of 70 elite Indian special forces commandos crossed the border into Myanmar and struck at the Khaplang. The commandos were air-dropped from helicopters deep inside Myanmar around 3 am, equipped with assault rifles, rocket launchers, grenades and night vision goggles. They walked 5 km to two Khaplang camps and destroyed them, killing 38 militants.

NSCN-K was formed on April 30, 1988, under the leadership of S S Khaplang, as a secessionist movement of the Naga people in India and Myanmar to form a separate nation, the People's Republic of Nagaland. Mumbai Mirror and Indian Express and South Asia Terrorism Portal (SATP - India)

Cross-border raid implications for India with Pakistan and China

Indian officials are brimming with nationalistic pride today after the cross-border attack in Myanmar (Burma) that killed 38 militants who had ambushed Indian soldiers several days earlier. According to one official:

"This message is now very clear to all those who harbored intentions of terror on our country. Unprecedented though, but our Prime Minister has taken a very bold step and given a go ahead for hot pursuit into Myanmar."

Another official said:

"The military's action against insurgents with assistance from the Myanmarese government speaks volumes about India's resolve to fight terror. This is a lesson and a message to all the terror groups that India will not hesitate in going beyond its geographical borders to eliminate terrorists."

There is some doubt about the truthfulness of this statement, as it's not clear that the Myanmar government was aware of the strike until after it happened. In fact, the initial response from the Myanmar government on the military strike was to say that it took place entirely on Indian soil.

In fact, there have been some reports that Myanmar and officials from China's People's Liberation Army (PLA) have been supporting the NSCN-Khaplang terrorist attacks into India.

Editorial opinion in India seems highly positive. One editorial says that "Prime Minister Narendra Modi has demonstrated that he is willing to bite the bullet and take tough action when it comes to the killing of Indian soldiers."

But the raid has raised some very sensitive hackles in China and Pakistan.

In 2008, there was a horrific 3-day terror attack on Mumbai by Lashkar-e-Taibi (LeT), a Pakistani terrorist group that was formed in the 1990s by Pakistan's Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) agency to fight India in the disputed regions of Kashmir and Jammu. After the attack, India threatened to send its army to cross the border and attack LeT on Pakistani soil, which might have led to a major war. This was prevented by hard intervention by Secretary of State Condoleezza Rice. Furthermore, as we reported in April, Pakistan has refused to prosecute the mastermind of the Mumbai attack, and he walks free today, infuriating the Indians.

Since then, there have been other terrorist attacks by Pakistan-based terror groups in India. The nationalistic gloating by Indian officials seems to suggest that India would no longer hesitate to cross the border into Pakistan in pursuit of a Pakistani terrorist.

But according to Pakistan's interior minister:

"Pakistan is not like Myanmar. ... Those having ill designs against Pakistan should listen carefully that our security forces are capable of matching response to any adventurism. ... Indian leaders should stop day dreaming."

He accused India of conducting terrorist attacks on Pakistan, and said that India's "nefarious designs" will not succeed in future as in the past. Dawn (Pakistan) and Times of India

Reports of breakthrough in Greece's debt crisis

There were reports through the day on Wednesday that Germany will be satisfied with just one of the reforms that Greece has previously committed to.

The Europeans are demanding that Greece institute reforms to address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

According to the reports, only one of these reforms would be required, and the others would be postponed to the future. If true, this compromise would, in effect, "kick the can down the road" once more.

However, there was a late night meeting in Brussels between Germany's Chancellor Angela Merkel and Greece's Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras, and the only word following the meeting was that negotiations still had a long way to go.

Greece must make a debt repayment of 1.6 billion euros to the IMF on June 30. It's thought that Greece has no chance of making that payment unless a new bailout program for Greece is approved in the next week. Bloomberg and Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-Jun-15 World View -- Pakistan reacts as Indian forces cross border and strike militants in Myanmar thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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10-Jun-15 World View -- Obama planning additional troop deployment to Iraq in new escalation

US-supported rebels capture key Assad regime army base in Syria

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Burundi's Hutu government in violent crackdown on Tutsi protesters


Student camp outside the American embassy in Bujumbura (Reuters)
Student camp outside the American embassy in Bujumbura (Reuters)

Hundreds of students are camping outside the American embassy in Bujumbura, the capital city of Burundi, fearing violence by police and security forces. Elsewhere, the violent crackdown has created 100,000 refugees, many of whom have fled into Rwanda and Uganda.

Burundi is following a familiar pattern of a kind experienced by many countries in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the end of a bloody, genocidal civil war. The 1994 war between Hutus and Tutsis in Rwanda and Burundi, resulting it around a million deaths, left the survivors traumatized, vowing they'd never let it happen again.

But now, a generation later, young people have no personal memory of the 1994 slaughter, and all the old hatreds that gave rise to the war are being inflamed again. This is raising fears that the civil war will be revived in all its fury, something that can't happen in a generational Awakening era because the survivors won't permit it.

But just the fear of a renewed civil war is driving policies that are detrimental to Burundi. Burundi's Hutu president Pierre Nkurunziza took office in 2005, and has served for two terms, which is the maximum allowed under the country's constitution, written during the post-war Recovery era with the intention of preventing another civil war. Nkurunziza was appointed by the parliament in 2005, and was re-elected in 2010, and now wants to run for a third term in the 2015 election. He claims that since he was appointed as president in 2005, his first term doesn't count, and he can run for another term. He claims that his presidency will bring stability to Burundi. His Tutsi opponents say that his power grab will destabilize the country, and make a new civil war more likely.

Nkurunziza is following the violent crackdown on protesters that we've seen in other Awakening era countries, such as Iran, Syria and Thailand. Peaceful anti-government protesters are considered to be enemies of the state, destabilizing the country. President Nkurunziza, claiming that he knows best how to keep the country safe, massacres the peaceful protesters, just like Syria's president Bashar al-Assad, just like Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei, and just like Thailand's Thai-Chinese élite army junta.

Nkurunziza has postponed the election from June to July 15, and still insists that he will run for a third term, something that his opponents say will risk a new civil war. International Business Times and Reuters and All Africa

Obama planning additional troop deployment to Iraq in new escalation

Reports from unnamed officials say that the Obama administration has adopted a major shift in strategy in Iraq. The Obama administration is planning to establish a new military base in Anbar Province and send hundreds of additional American military trainers to help Iraqi forces retake the city of Ramadi and repel the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

A day after President Barack Obama announced that the administration had no plan for defeating ISIS, anonymous Pentagon officials say that the Administration is planning a significant troop escalation in Iraq. According to the reports, 1,000 new troops will be added to the 3,080 troops already there.

Last year in June, President Obama announced that the U.S. would send 300 American advisors to train, advise and support the Iraqi securities forces fighting ISIS. Since then, this number has been increased, one step at time, from 300 to 800 to 1500 to 3100, and now presumably to over 4,000. He said that this was "not mission creep." He insisted that the "U.S. will not be putting boots on the ground." The goal is "to degrade and ultimately destroy the terrorist group known as ISIL." All of this was in addition to air force strikes against ISIS.

President Obama, whose foreign policy has been one disaster after another, appeared to have no coherent policy in Iraq at all after saying on Monday, "We don't yet have a complete strategy because it requires commitments on the part of the Iraqis," even though many months had past. Pentagon sources quickly stated that they had presented several options and recommendations to Obama months ago, and they were waiting for him to make up his mind. Analysts are saying that 1,000 more troops just for training purposes won't make any difference, so it remains to be seen whether this announcement is just cosmetic, or whether there's more to it.

For those of us who have been around for a while, sending 1,000 more troops to Iraq looks very much like the kind of escalation and "mission creep" that got us into other wars with no planning. Washington Post and NY Times and CNN

US-supported rebels capture key Assad regime army base in Syria

An umbrella group of opposition fighters, known as the "Southern Front," has captured one of Syria's largest army bases, 56 miles south of Damascus, after 24 hours of fighting the Syrian army. The Southern Front is backed by the US and Jordan, and several Arab countries provide money and weapons. The Southern Front has now cut off Syria's army from the border crossings to Jordan.

We've reported several times in the last few weeks that the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is facing numerous setbacks and may be near total collapse, and that Russia may end support for al-Assad. These new setbacks make a collapse more likely.

In the regions north of Damascus, another rebel alliance led by the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), has captured much of the region from Aleppo to the coastal city of Latakia. This includes the heartland of al-Assad's Shia/Alawite ethnic group, and places that entire population in danger. Farther to the east, ISIS has taken control of large sections of the country, crossing over into Iraq.

There's apparent a "dog that didn't bark" in the picture. We've described reports that Iran is invoking a 2007 mutual defense treaty with Syria, and that Iran would deploy tens of thousands of Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC) to defend al-Assad, especially in the coastal region around Latakia. So far, there's no sign that these reports have come to past, and now there are reports that Iran has rejected al-Assad's request for up to 100,000 IRGC troops. Al Jazeera

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-Jun-15 World View -- Obama planning additional troop deployment to Iraq in new escalation thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (10-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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9-Jun-15 World View -- Iran demands a nuclear agreement 'snapback' provision of its own

South Korea fears that MERS virus will break out into general population

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

South Korea fears that MERS virus will break out into general population


Anti-government protesters in Seoul on Sunday wear masks for protection from MERS (AP)
Anti-government protesters in Seoul on Sunday wear masks for protection from MERS (AP)

South Korea is implementing panic measures, to keep a rapidly spreading epidemic of Middle Eastern Respiratory Syndrome coronavirus (MERS-CoV) under control.

The are 95 known cases, with seven deaths.

So far, the only new infections have occurred in hospitals, where one infected person comes to the hospital seeking treatment, and ends up infecting other people, including patients, nurses and doctors.

It hasn't started spreading in the general public, and authorities are taking numerous steps to keep that from happening. 2,000 schools have been closed, and hundreds of public events have been canceled.

More significant are the quarantines. Some 2,500 people have been ordered to stay home under quarantine for 14 days, and their cell phones are being monitored to make sure that they do so. The authorities call the cell phones regularly to make sure that the patient hasn't left home without his cell phone.

Sometimes entire villages are quarantined. Men in protective clothing are guarding all roads in and out of Jangduk village, which is 172 miles south of Seoul, preventing any of the 105 residents from leaving. The only contact the villagers have with outsiders is twice-daily visits from health officials checking their temperatures.

MERS was first identified in Saudi Arabia in 2012. Globally, there have been almost 1200 cases since then, most in Saudi Arabia, and at least 444 related deaths. The original hosts for the MERS virus are thought to be bats, and the bats have transferred the virus to camels, which can carry the virus without showing symptoms. Studies show that it's been common in camels for at least 20 years before spreading to humans. Camel handlers and shepherds are the people most at risk for MERS in Saudi Arabia.

However, that figure represents only people who were diagnosed. One study of 10,000 people in Saudi Arabia found that many more had been exposed to MERS, but had not shown symptoms or been diagnosed.

MERS spread to Seoul several weeks ago when a Korean working in Saudi Arabia returned home several weeks ago, and went to a hospital because he was feeling ill. He infected several nurses and doctors, who spread it to nurses, doctors and patients.

North Korea is also in danger from MERS, as there are some 50,000 North Korean workers in Saudi Arabia. South Korea was able to respond quickly to a MERS pandemic, but it could be a real disaster in North Korea, which is ill-equipped to handle it. World Health Organization and Reuters and Deutsche Welle and Live Science

Iran demands a nuclear agreement 'snapback' provision of its own

In the nuclear negotiations with Iran, the West is insisting that the agreement contain a "snapback" provision, meaning the following: If the sanctions are removed, and then Iran violates the nuclear agreement, then the sanctions will "snap back" and be reapplied.

Iran has consistently refused to agree to the snapback provision, but is now changing its position: It will agree to the West's snapback provision, provided that it also has a snapback provision of its own.

Iran's snapback provision would permit Iran to resume full nuclear development if the West breaches its side of the deal.

Many people are skeptical of the whole snapback concept. They argue that once the agreement is in place and sanctions have been lifted, it would be politically impossible to reintroduce sanctions, even if Iran breached the agreement.

On the other hand, Iran's snapback option would seem to have little meaning. If the West breached its side of the agreement, which would presumably mean failing to lift the sanctions, then Iran could resume nuclear development with or without a snapback option. Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-Jun-15 World View -- Iran demands a nuclear agreement 'snapback' provision of its own thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (9-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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8-Jun-15 World View -- In major election setback, Turkey's Erdogan loses support as Kurds gain seats

Israeli residents near Gaza border expect war soon

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Israeli residents near Gaza border expect war soon


Hamas tunnel (Memri)
Hamas tunnel (Memri)

Israeli residents who live near the Gaza border can hear the sounds of tunnels being dug underground, and the digging goes on 24 hours a day. The residents blame Israel's Defense Forces (IDF). According to one resident:

"Very simply, the IDF didn’t do the job the last time.

I’ve also heard of many residents in the area complaining about hearing digging, so we weren’t surprised that a senior Hamas official said their people continue to prepare offensive tunnels. I hope that next time [the army] will properly deal with the tunnels in a timely fashion instead of waiting until 14 terrorists pop out from underground."

Many of these residents living on the border were forcibly expelled from the Gaza Strip in 2005, after the prime minister at the time, Ariel Sharon, forcibly withdrew all Israeli settlers from Gaza, and turned the Strip over to the Palestinian government.

"I keep saying this again and again. It’s been 10 years since we were expelled from [Gaza], and the leadership in this country - some of whom are alive, some of whom are dead - promised us we would be safe. Since [leaving Gaza], we’ve absorbed 6,000 mortar bombs and even Qassam rockets, and we didn’t complain. ...

They promised that there would be quiet in the South and the entire country. But since we left [Gaza], there have been three large-scale campaigns - Cast Lead, Pillar of Defense, and Protective Edge. In the last year, we have seen a trickle of missile fire and the digging of tunnels, and we may be on the verge of another military operation."

As I've been writing since 2003, Generational Dynamics predicts that there will be a new war between Arabs and Jews, refighting the bloody, genocidal 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Jerusalem Post

Israel launches fresh air strikes on Gaza

Israel's air force launched air strikes at a Hamas training facility in the northern Gaza Strip on Sunday, in response to a rocket launched from Gaza at Israel. The rocket landed in the middle of a farmer's sunflower field, and there were no casualties from either attack.

White House spokesman Josh Earnest, accompanying President Barack Obama at a G7 summit in Germany, supported the Israeli air strikes: "Clearly the US stands with the people of Israel as they defend their people and their nation against these kind of attacks."

The head of the IDF's Southern Command, Maj-Gen Sami Turgeman, says that Hamas is not responsible for the rocket fire from Gaza:

"These are isolated rockets fired by terrorists in Gaza. The rockets explode in open fields and the IDF retaliates to the incidents but will not launch an operation in the Strip because of them. The IDF responds in accordance with the attacks."

According to Turgeman, the IDF believes that Hamas wants the calm in Gaza. The Omar Brigades, a Gaza terror group, took responsibility for the rocket fire. Reuters and Jerusalem Post

In major election setback, Turkey's Erdogan loses support as Kurds gain seats

The electorate on Sunday surprised Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan by refusing to give his party the re-election margin that he needed to implement the constitutional changes he was proposing.

Erdogan's AKP (Justice and Development Party) government has won a parliamentary majority for the last 13 years, giving Erdogan a great deal of power, which opponents say he's used to become almost a dictator, suppressing free speech and jailing opposition.

During the campaign, Erdogan asked the voters to give him an even bigger parliamentary majority, so that he could modify the constitution to change from a parliamentary government (like Britain) to a presidential government (like the US), presumably giving himself even more power. So Sunday's election was probably really a referendum on Erdogan's increasingly autocratic grab for power.

The loss in support was significant. The AK Party got 49% of the vote in the 2011 election, but only 41% in Sunday's election. This means that Erdogan will have to try to form a ruling coalition with another party. However, some reports indicate that Erdogan feels he was cheated, and may call for a snap election soon, in the hope of regaining a majority.

It was significant that the AK Party got only 41% of the vote, but equally significant was that the Kurdish anti-government far-left Peoples’ Democratic Party's (HDP) got 12% of the vote, surpassing a 10% threshold that gives the party a significant representation in the parliament. HDP's support was very strong in eastern Turkey, in the region that Kurdish separatists desire as an independent Kurdistan.

Note: HDP = Kurdish Peoples' Democratic Party in Turkey, PKK = Kurdistan Workers' Party anti-government insurgents in Turkey. Peshmerga = Kurdish militias in Iraq. PYD = Kurdish militias in Syria.

The PKK is considered a terrorist group, and has fought an on-and-off civil war with the government since the 1980s, but has sought peace in recent years. So the rise of the HDP in Sunday's election will give the Kurds in Turkey a much larger political voice than they've had in the past. BBC and Daily Sabah (Turkey) and Hurriyet (Turkey)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-Jun-15 World View -- In major election setback, Turkey's Erdogan loses support as Kurds gain seats thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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7-Jun-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia shoots down Scud missile from Houthis in Yemen

Europeans rescue 3,000 migrants on Saturday, fear hundreds of thousands more

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Saudi Arabia shoots down Scud missile from Houthis in Yemen


Young Yemenis in anti-Saudi demonstrations in Sanaa
Young Yemenis in anti-Saudi demonstrations in Sanaa

In a new, potentially major escalation of the war in Yemen, Iran-backed Shia Houthi militias in Yemen fired a Scud missile across the border with Saudi Arabia, targeting the King Khalid Air Base in the city of Khamis Mushait, about 100 km north of the Yemen border.

The Saudis launched two missiles from a Patriot missile battery, and shot the Scud missile down with no reported casualties.

However, the Houthis are calling it a symbolic victory, because it shows that the Saudi air strikes have not been effective, and it shows that the Houthis still have enough firepower to attack Saudi villages and bases. It's believed that the Houthis have a stockpile of some 300 Scud missiles, though some of those may have been destroyed by Saudi air strikes.

At the same time, fighting along the border between Yemen and Saudi Arabia has been increasing. The Saudis responded to the Scud missile attack by a new surge in airstrikes at Houthi targets in Yemen, along the Saudi border and in the capital city Sanaa.

As we've been describing for a long time, the Mideast is headed for a massive war of Shias versus Sunnis, Arabs versus Persians, and Jews versus Muslims. Ever since the "Arab awakening" in 2011, the Mideast has become more and more inflamed.

The United Nations has called for peace talks to begin next week. This is great news, because this will settle the Yemen war, just as previous peace talks have resolved the wars in Iraq, Syria and Ukraine. Reuters and AP and AFP

Who's causing the humanitarian crisis in Yemen?

Everyone agrees that there's a humanitarian disaster in progress in Yemen, with nearly 80% of the population in urgent need of food, water and medical aid. But the ideological war is whether the humanitarian crisis is the fault of the Houthis or the Saudis.

According to the liberal Guardian, the Saudis are at fault:

"[The humanitarian crisis] has been dramatically worsened by a naval blockade imposed by an Arab coalition with US and British backing.

Washington and London have quietly tried to persuade the Saudis, who are leading the coalition, to moderate its tactics, and in particular to ease the naval embargo, but to little effect. A small number of aid ships is being allowed to unload but the bulk of commercial shipping, on which the desperately poor country depends, are being blocked. ...

The desperate shortage of food, water and medical supplies raises urgent questions over US and UK support for the Arab coalition’s intervention in the Yemeni civil war since March. Washington provides logistical and intelligence support through a joint planning cell established with the Saudi military, who are leading the campaign. London has offered to help the Saudi military effort in “every practical way short of engaging in combat”.

On western urging, Riyadh had promised to move towards “intelligence-led interdiction”, stopping and searching individual ships on which there was good reason to believe arms were being smuggled, and away from a blanket policy of blocking the majority of vessels approaching Yemeni ports. But aid agencies and shipping sources say there is little sign of any such change. UN sources say that only 15% of the pre-crisis volume of imports is getting through, and that the country depends on imports for nine-tenths of its food. ...

At Al Hudaydah on Yemen’s west coast, the only major port still functioning, a trickle of humanitarian food supplies is arriving on a handful of aid ships allowed through the naval blockade each week, but many more ships are being turned away or made to wait many days to be searched for weapons."

According to the Arab News, the United Nations and the Houthis are at fault:

"One source confirmed that more than 200 licensed ships were allowed to deliver aid and that not all the ships were inspected as many are believed not to be linked to the rebels. The source added that many ships are using the Djibouti port, which the United Nations — not Saudi Arabia, Egypt or the US — supervises and grants licenses accordingly.

The inspection forces may have delayed the passage of the ships but they haven’t prevented them from passing and have not confiscated their cargo. ...

The Saudi-led coalition forces know that the rebels are intentionally obstructing aid in order to stir international public opinion at the expense of the Yemeni people, whom they’ve taken hostage. Hospital operations have been disrupted due to rebels obstructing the delivery of fuel. Millions of people in several cities and towns lack drinking water because they ran out of the diesel necessary for generators to pump water. Meanwhile, the military power of the Houthis and Saleh’s forces has not been obstructed as they are stealing fuel to operate their vehicles and are in control of food storage centers. They’ve also seized aid routes in the center of the country and are transferring this aid to areas in their control.

When I asked a source as to why international organizations do not blame the Houthis and Saleh’s forces for this humanitarian crisis, he said it’s because they do not want to cut ties with them and because they fear for their employees and activities in Yemen, considering that these rebels are gangs that do not hesitate to kill whoever criticizes or defies them."

It's clear that both of these accounts are completely biased, in opposite directions.

One expects the Arab News to be biased. After all, the Arab coalition is one party to the war, and their press is going to be biased in their favor.

But the Guardian is supposed to be a mainstream media source, based in London. So why is the Guardian just as biased as the Arab News? Why does the Guardian account read like it was from the Tehran Times?

More broadly, why are all the mainstream liberal news sources -- the Guardian, the NY Times, NBC News, etc., so completely biased that it's almost impossible to trust anything they write? We know that Generation-Xers have been extremely dishonest as politicians and as bankers, so I suppose we should expect it of journalists as well.

As for mainstream conservative news sources, there are fewer choices. Fox News covers mostly American political news, which I tend to avoid. And the London Telegraph is behind a limited paywall.

My job every day in my World View column is that when I write about a subject is to read media sources from all points of view, and try to figure out who's telling the truth. Usually I do pretty well, but it would be easier if I could depend on journalists who act like professional adults instead of screwed up children. The Guardian (London) and Arab News (Riyadh)

Europeans rescue 3,000 migrants on Saturday, fear hundreds of thousands more

Vessels from Germany, Ireland, Britain and Italy rescued over 3,400 migrants on Saturday. There were about 15 individual rescues, mostly 200-300 nautical miles south of Italy, in international waters near Libya.

According to one analyst, there's a big surge every weekend. The reason is that the weekend starts in Libya on Thursday evening, and then there are fewer people on the streets and beaches, making it much easier for the migrant smugglers to launch their boats on Friday and Saturday. There may be thousands of migrants rescued on the weekend, but during the week, there are usually just a few hundred every day.

Europeans are bracing for an even bigger surge of migrants as the summer continues. There are reportedly 450,000 to 500,000 migrants already in Libya, waiting to make the crossing to Europe. They've already each paid thousands of dollars to the smugglers, and are waiting their turns to make the crossing. The migrants are put onto overcrowded boats, and they're told to sink them as soon as they see another vessel, so that they'll have to be rescued. Guardian (London) and Al Jazeera

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-Jun-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia shoots down Scud missile from Houthis in Yemen thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (7-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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6-Jun-15 World View -- Speculation grows about China's purpose in giant government hacking breach

Tsipras gives bitter, defiant speech to Greece's parliament

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Tsipras gives bitter, defiant speech to Greece's parliament


Alexis Tsipras giving speech to parliament on Friday (Kathimerini)
Alexis Tsipras giving speech to parliament on Friday (Kathimerini)

As expected, Greece did not make its 300 million euro debt payment International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday, and instead will have to pay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF on June 30. June 30 will be the end of Greece's current bailout plan, and there will be no more bailout money available under any terms.

So it seems that after several years of "kicking the can down the road," and postponing making the hard decisions, the Greece bailout crisis will finally run out of road on June 30. And whatever the outcome, it's certain to be very unpleasant.

Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras was defiant and bitter in a speech he gave to Greece's parliament on Friday:

"Time is not only running out for us, it is running out for everyone. ...

The proposals submitted by lenders are unrealistic. The Greek government cannot consent to absurd proposals. ...

I would like to believe that this proposal was an unfortunate moment for Europe, or at least a bad negotiating trick, and will very soon be withdrawn by the same people who thought it up. ...

We don’t just need an agreement, we need a definitive solution, both for Greece and for Europe, that will finally end the talk of a Greek exit from the eurozone. ...

The fiscal strangulation of a country is a moral issue that conflicts with Europe’s founding principles – which raises well-founded questions on Europe’s future."

Tsipras called on opposition parties to support him in the ongoing negotiations. The far left factions in his own Syriza party have already indicated that they won't support any plan that calls for any austerity.

Tsipras's predecessor, center right New Democracy leader Antonis Samaras, responded by telling the prime minister that he had "some nerve" asking for support at this time. He accused Tsipras of mishandling the negotiations and tipping Greece back into recession. "You have totally destroyed the country and isolated us," he said. Kathimerini and Guardian (London)

Speculation grows about China's purpose in giant government hacking breach

Chinese hackers are suspected in a massive breach compromising the computers at the U.S. Office of Personnel Management (OPM) and Department of the Interior. The personal information of 4 million U.S. current and former federal employees were compromised in the breach. The OPM is the human resources department for the federal government, and so every government agency is potentially affected. The data goes back to 1985.

As usual, the Chinese feigned outrage at anyone who could suspect them of such a thing, and complained that any such accusation would be "irresponsible and unscientific."

The perpetrators are believed to be the same Chinese hackers behind the Anthem health insurance data breach in March, where 80 million current and former customers of Blue Cross Blue Shield plans had their personal information compromised, including birthdates, addresses, and social security numbers.

Assuming that the Chinese are the perpetrators, questions are being raised about what they're planning to do with all this data. The Chinese now have a massive data base of detailed personal information on tens or hundreds of millions of Americans. What are they going to do with this?

If the Chinese want to penetrate another company, they can use detailed information from the files to craft personalized phony messages to trick workers. These are called "spear phishing" messages. A worker receiving such a message might think it's from a family member and click on something in the message that infects their computer, or which gives the hacker access to the other data bases in the company network. With this technique, the Chinese can penetrate one company after another, using the information gathered from one breach to gain access to perpetrate the next breach.

It's not known how certain government officials are that the Chinese government is the perpetrator. It's possible that they know with 100% certainty based on NSA data. However, even if they're that certain, they couldn't say so because they would be accusing China of an act of war, and a response would be required. AP and CNN and Reuters and Dark Reading

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-Jun-15 World View -- Speculation grows about China's purpose in giant government hacking breach thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (6-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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5-Jun-15 World View -- With Syria's army nearing collapse, Iran plans massive troop deployment

Greece and Europeans fail once again to reach an agreement

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

With Syria's army nearing collapse, Iran plans massive troop deployment


Idlib (Reuters)
Idlib (Reuters)

As we've been reporting since April, the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been increasingly showing signs of collapse, losing one major city after another either to the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) or to the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front). The collapse has become so serious that even Russia is considering ending support for al-Assad, as we reported a few days ago.

Al-Assad has been mostly relying on fighters from Hezbollah, but even Hezbollah has been suffering substantial losses, between 700 and 2000 fighters, according to reports. Hezbollah claims that its purpose is to be the army of "resistance" against Israel, but the disastrous situation in Syria has forced Hezbollah to transfer hundreds of fighters from the border with Israel into the fight in Syria.

But now in a major escalation in the (proxy) war in Syria, Iran is planning to deploy tens of thousands of troops in Syria to prevent the fall of al-Assad. 15,000 to 20,000 troops are already being sent to the region around Idlib, and up to 50,000 are reportedly on the way.

Iran has a second objective in deploying troops to Syria. They want results by the end of the month (June), because that's the deadline for a nuclear agreement with the United States and the West. They believe that they'll get a better nuclear deal by scoring a win in Syria. It would also improve Tehran’s leverage on negotiations with other parties after the nuclear deal is completed.

Gen. Qassam Soleimani, the commander of Iran’s elite Quds force, whom ISIS humiliatingly defeated in the battle of Tikrit Iraq a couple of months ago, promised a "surprise":

"The world will be surprised by what we and the Syrian military leadership are preparing for the coming days."

Soleimani made the statement during a secret trip to Idlib, where he determined that Syria's army made numerous operational errors, resulting in a loss to al-Nusra. YNet and Daily Star (Beirut)

Iran and Syria may invoke 2006 mutual defense agreement

The purpose of a new agreement between Iran and Syria, which may involve invoking a 2006 mutual defense pact between the two countries, is to allow tens of thousands of Iran's soldiers to prevent ISIS and al-Nusra from cutting off the corridor between Damascus and Syria's coastal region.

According to a report by Saudi-based al-Arabiya:

"Iran must send 50,000 soldiers from the infantry force to Syria to manage the war there and prevent the fall of the Assad regime, which has begun to collapse recently.

Iran must preserve the vital corridor [connecting] Damascus to Latakia, Tartous and the Lebanese border.

[Any] delay by Iran in [implementing] this pre-emptive action will cause the fall of Damascus airport, which in turn [means] the severing of the essential communication and supply line Iran [uses] to assist the Syrian regime."

Ironically, al-Assad is agreeing to this deployment of Iranian soldiers because he has no choice. He has opposed the establishment of any Iranian bases in Syria, because he knows that once Iran has a military base in Syria, it won't be long before Iran is in charge of the whole country.

Long-time readers are aware that Generational Dynamics predicts a major war engulfing the entire Mideast. Since last year, we've been reporting that ISIS and other terror groups are not fighting Christians and Jews; they've been overwhelmingly fighting other Muslims, with the number of Christians and Jews killed by Muslims being a minuscule amount compared to the number of Muslims being killed by other Muslims.

With wars in Syria, Iraq, Yemen and Libya, the entire Mideast is increasingly in flames. A major military deployment by Iran in Syria would substantially inflame the Shia-Sunni fault line in the Mideast, and would cause the Saudis and other Gulf Arab nations to prepare for further military action. Now Lebanon and Debka and AFP (2006)

Greece and Europeans fail once again to reach an agreement

Although Greece was due to make a 300 million euro debt payment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday, I wrote a few days ago that Greece will NOT go bankrupt on Friday. The reason is that analysts were predicting that Greece would take advantage of a loophole that allows Greece to postpone the payment to the end of the month. Greece exercised that loophole on Thursday, and Friday's payment will be bundled together with three others, and now Greece will have to pay 1.6 billion euros to the IMF at the end of the month. Greece's PM Alexis Tsipras, in his usual pretense of normality, said that there will be no problem making the payment, though almost no one believes him.

Tsipras was in Brussels on Thursday, meeting with IMF and European officials. The meeting ended in failure, though both sides said that it had been "constructive."

The Europeans are demanding that Greece institute reforms to address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

In the past, Tsipras has refused to agree to any of these. But there's now evidence from leaked documents that the Tsipras is beginning to back down. He appears to have given ground on privatizing public businesses, and he seems willing to raise taxes and cut pensions, at least by a small amount. However, Tsipras is still insisting on implementing a huge minimum wage increase, undoing a cut in the minimum wage from 2012.

However, Tsipras does not have a free hand in agreeing to the creditors' terms. He's facing a backlash from the far left in his own party, and his government may collapse if he meets too many of the Europeans' demands. Greek Reporter and Kathimerini and Economist

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-Jun-15 World View -- With Syria's army nearing collapse, Iran plans massive troop deployment thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (5-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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4-Jun-15 World View -- FBI investigating awarding of 2018 and 2022 World Soccer Cups

Philippines president Aquino compares China to Nazis

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

FBI investigating awarding of 2018 and 2022 World Soccer Cups


Sepp Blatter
Sepp Blatter

In a new announcement on Wednesday, the FBI said it is investigating the awarding of the 2018 and 2022 World Football (Soccer) Cups to Russia and Qatar, respectively. This follows the Justice Dept.'s indictments last week of nine world soccer officials.

If you aren't a follower of world football (soccer), then you may not be aware of the news story that's consumed international news outside the United States, with 24-hour almost continuous coverage every day, almost wiping out coverage of anything else, including Iraq, Yemen and Ukraine.

On May 27, the United States Department of Justice indicted nine officials from the Zurich, Switzerland, based Fédération Internationale de Football Association (FIFA - International Football Association) for racketeering, conspiracy and corruption.

According to the Obama administration's new Attorney General Loretta Lynch:

"The indictment alleges corruption that is rampant, systemic, and deep-rooted both abroad and here in the United States. It spans at least two generations of soccer officials who, as alleged, have abused their positions of trust to acquire millions of dollars in bribes and kickbacks. And it has profoundly harmed a multitude of victims, from the youth leagues and developing countries that should benefit from the revenue generated by the commercial rights these organizations hold, to the fans at home and throughout the world whose support for the game makes those rights valuable. Today’s action makes clear that this Department of Justice intends to end any such corrupt practices, to root out misconduct, and to bring wrongdoers to justice – and we look forward to continuing to work with other countries in this effort."

The indictment did not mention FIFA's controversial president Sepp Blatter, but the indictment came just two days before FIFA was to hold an election for the next FIFA president. Blatter had already been president for 17 years, and was re-elected despite all the indictments. However, when word leaked that he was also being investigated by the US administration, he announced his resignation.

So why the heck is the U.S. Justice Department doing this? Why not the European Union or the Swiss?

Well, FBI director James Comey has an answer to that question:

"If you touch our shores with your corrupt enterprise, whether that is through meetings or through using our world class financial system, you will be held accountable for that corruption."

Oh really? Comey is going to hold people responsible for corrupting our "world class financial system"??? Long-time readers can easily guess what I'm going to say next.

First we had original financial crisis, where thousands of bankers corrupted our world class financial system by knowingly created tens of trillions of dollars in faulty subprime mortgage backed synthetic securities, and knowingly defrauded thousands of investors with them. This triggered the financial crisis and caused millions of people to lose their homes and go bankrupt. But these bankers gave millions of dollars in contributions to the Obama administration, and so the Obama administration has adamantly refused to prosecute even a single one of these criminals.

Because the Obama administration made it clear that no banker criminals would be prosecuted, the same bankers stayed at the same jobs and found a new form of fraud -- the Libor scandal. Bankers corrupted our world class financial system by colluding with one another to fix interest rates. According to one banker, "It's just amazing how Libor fixing can make you that much money." Those actions cost clients hundreds of millions of dollars.

However, bankers have given millions of dollars in contributions to the Obama administration, so even though the bankers doing this criminal activity were easily identified, the Obama administration refused to prosecute them. In fact, Timothy F. Geithner, Obama's Treasury Secretary, knew about Libor fraud as early as 2008, but refused to do anything about it.

So bankers knew that they could continue committing fraud with impunity and make billions of dollars, as long as they gave a percentage of that money to the Obama administration.

That brings us to Forex (foreign exchange) fraud, where bankers colluded with one another to defraud their customers making currency conversions from one currency to another. Libor fraud cost clients hundreds of millions of dollars, while Forex fraud cost trillions of dollars.

The interesting thing about the Forex investigation is that the bankers continued committing fraud even after it became public that Forex fraud was being investigated. Why did they do that? Why not? They wanted to make as much money as they could, knowing that they would never be prosecuted. They had a free ticket to commit fraud and keep the money. As one banker was quoted as saying, "If you ain't cheating, you ain't trying."

Two weeks ago, the Justice Dept. fined four banks a total of $6 billion for committing Forex fraud. Just to give you an idea of how much that is, one of the banks, JP Morgan, made $4 billion in the first quarter of this year in just one unit, the commodities unit. So the $6 billion was a tiny fraction of the money that the banks made fraudulently. And NOT ONE SINGLE PERSON was charged for Forex fraud, even though the Justice Dept. knows exactly who the criminals are.

So now the Justice Dept. puts on this big dog and pony show over bringing criminal charges against some foreign officials in the world soccer organization, because they may have corrupted our world class financial system.

As I've written many times, this kind of criminality in the administration was unthinkable before the 2000s and the rise of Generation-X. Not only do a sizeable minority of Gen-Xers feel that it's OK to defraud anyone they want, it seems that a majority of Gen-Xers refused to prosecute crimes.

As I'm typing this, there's a TV report that street crime and street homicide is at an all-time high in Baltimore, Chicago, and other cities. At the same time, financial "experts" on Wall Street lie about stock valuations frequently, as I've documented many times, and no one cares.

And you can be sure that the same bankers who created the phony synthetic subprime backed securities, and who perpetrated the Libor and Forex frauds, are still working at the banks, looking for other ways to defraud people.

The Obama administration is directly responsible for millions of Americans losing their homes or going bankrupt through its failure to prosecute crime. But fear not. The next time you watch an international soccer game, assuming you can afford a TV, you can feel confident that the Justice Department is protecting you. U.S. Justice Dept. and Fox Sports and Reuters and Guardian (London)

FIFA investigation brings the Russia and Qatar awards into question

Here are some political notes related to the FIFA investigation:

Guardian (London) and Slate

Palestine drops demand to ban Israel from FIFA

Before the US Justice Dept. made the surprise announcements of the indictments against FIFA officials, the big news was that the Palestinian Football Association was going to introduce a motion to expel Israel from FIFA, accusing it of unjustly restricting Palestinian soccer players’ freedom of movement and claiming that Israel’s West Bank settlement teams violate FIFA rules.

However, because of the indictments, the Palestinians were forced to drop their plan.

The Palestinians are expected to try similar actions at the Olympics and other international arenas. Jewish Telegraphic Agency and Washington Post

Philippines president Aquino compares China to Nazis

Speaking at a business meeting in Tokyo, Philippines President Benigno Aquino III suggested that the world cannot continue to appease China as it annexes other countries' territories in the South China Sea:

"If there was a vacuum, if the United States, which is the superpower, says 'We are not interested,' perhaps there is no brake to ambitions of other countries.

I'm an amateur student of history and I'm reminded of ... how Germany was testing the waters and what the response was by various other European powers.

They tested the waters and they were ready to back down if for instance in that aspect, France said (to back down).

But unfortunately, up to the annexation of the Sudetenland, Czechoslovakia, the annexation of the entire country of Czechoslovakia, nobody said stop.

If somebody said stop to (Adolf) Hitler at that point in time, or to Germany at that time, would we have avoided World War II?

So, I say again, America's rebalancing sends a definite signal that we are all supposed to be living under norms that we agreed upon."

China's Foreign Ministry pretended to be shocked at the "outrageous and unreasonable" comments by Aquino:

"I once more seriously warn certain people in the Philippines to cast aside their illusions and repent, stop provocations and instigations, and return to the correct path of using bilateral channels to talk and resolve this dispute."

Reuters and AFP/Rappler

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-Jun-15 World View -- FBI investigating awarding of 2018 and 2022 World Soccer Cups thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (4-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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3-Jun-15 World View -- Greece will NOT go bankrupt on Friday

Greece's Alexis Tsipras faces a government mutiny from the far left

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greece's game of Chicken no closer to resolution


Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (center) speaks with Minister of Culture Aristides Baltas (L) in Athens (Kathimerini)
Prime Minister Alexis Tsipras (center) speaks with Minister of Culture Aristides Baltas (L) in Athens (Kathimerini)

"Greece could face bankruptcy on Friday."

That's what we've been hearing almost every week for months, but now we're being told that even though Greece has a 300 million euro payment due to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Friday, there is no danger of a bankruptcy.

The reason is that the IMF has agreed to postpone the payment. Greece owes four payments to the IMF this month (June), totaling 1.6 billion euros. And the IMF has agreed to wait until the end of the month for Greece to pay the entire amount. And so, Dear Reader, you'll be relieved to know that Greece will not go bankrupt this week on Friday.

Nonetheless, the clock is clearly running out. Postponing this Friday's payment simply has the effect of postponing the final deadline, again. It looks like the end of the month is a hard deadline, but we've heard that before.

As many people have noted, it looks like both sides are playing a game of Chicken. This would be particularly appealing to Greece's colorful finance minister Yanis Varoufakis, who is an expert on game theory. In the 1950s game of Chicken, two cars race towards each other at top speed. The first one to veer off is the "chicken." If neither car veers, then there's a collision, and both drivers are dead. (They didn't have seat belts in those days.)

So as the clock runs out, both sides are maintaining their demands, hoping that the other side will give in. According to the logic of the game of Chicken, there's no hope of a compromise until the very last moment, which means that the game will continue at least until the end of June.

The institutions -- IMF, European Central Bank (ECB) and European Commission (EC), formerly known as the "Troika," a word that's now forbidden -- are demanding that Greece continue the austerity programs that were in place until January, when Alexis Tsipras's far left Syriza party won the elections on a platform of no more austerity. The institutions are demanding that Greece institute reforms to address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

In January, Tsipras agreed to some minor reforms, but even those have not been implemented.

On Sunday, Tsipras wrote an editorial that blamed the failure to reach a compromise on " the obsession of some institutional representatives who insist on unreasonable solutions."

This was not received well. It resulted in an emergency meeting in Berlin on Monday evening. Attending were the leaders of Germany, France, the ECB, the EC and the IMF. Greece was not invited.

The result was a new final proposal from the Troika. Tsipras has defiantly countered by announcing that he has his own new 47-page proposal. The contents of the two proposals have not been revealed, but analysts seem to agree that they're likely to be very far apart when they're revealed on Wednesday. So the game of Chicken will continue.

There's an assumption behind the game of Chicken that does not apply to the situation in Greece. In the 1950s game of Chicken, if one or both cars veer off, the nothing has been lost, except that someone may be humiliated.

But the game of Chicken has already cost a lot. Greece had a budget surplus last year, and Tsipras has blown that away on new social programs. Greece's government has confiscated the cash reserves of all the public institutions, including municipalities, provinces, universities and hospitals. That money also has been blown away.

So even if a compromise of some kind is reached this month, the game of Chicken is going to result in a major wreck. Kathimerini and RTE (Ireland) and Value Walk

Greece's Alexis Tsipras faces a government mutiny from the far left

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras is facing open rebellion in his far left Syriza party, over the austerity demands of the Europeans. The far-far-left politicians are calling themselves the "Left Platform" faction of Syriza. They are demanding that Tsipras stop humiliating himself and Greece, and that Greece leave the eurozone and return to the drachma currency.

According to Syriza member Stathis Kouvelakis,

"It has become now clear that the 'institutions' are not striving for what some are calling an 'honorable compromise'. ...

What the ruling circles of the EU, the ECB and the IMF are ruthlessly and consistently aiming for in the last for months, is to strangle the economy, to milk even the last euro from the country’s reserves and to push an 'unprotected' government to full submission and exemplary humiliation."

After that, the Left Platform is demanding all sorts of new spending programs, nationalizing the banks, substantial taxation of top earners, and full implementation of labor union rights.

Polls have shown that most Greeks want to find a compromise that lets Greece stay in the eurozone, but among Syriza supporters, 58% want to return to the drachma. Telegraph (London) and Guardian (London) and Red Flag

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-Jun-15 World View -- Greece will NOT go bankrupt on Friday thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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2-Jun-15 World View -- Hamas and ISIS turn on each other in the Gaza Strip

Clashes following the ISIS invasion of the Yarmouk refugee camp

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Hamas and ISIS-linked group clash in the Gaza Strip


ISIS terrorist (Reuters)
ISIS terrorist (Reuters)

A Gaza Strip group claiming to be linked to the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has given Hamas, the governing authority of the Gaza Strip, a 48-hour deadline to stop cracking down on the members of the group.

The group calls itself the "Islamic State supporters in Bayt al-Maqdis (Jerusalem)" (ISIS in Gaza), and is linked to Ansar Bayt al-Maqdis (Supporters of Jerusalem), a group in Egypt's Sinai that has committed numerous terrorist bombings that we've reported on several times.

The ISIS in Gaza group has been conducting terror attacks against Hamas targets for the last couple of months, and Hamas has been cracking down on the group by arresting dozens of its members.

On Monday, the ISIS in Gaza group sent a statement to the media giving Hamas 48 hours to end the crackdown. The statement did not say what the group would do if the crackdown continued.

The statement included a claim taking responsibility for a rocket fired at Israel from Gaza last week. That claim could not be verified, but the rocket firing did occur on Tuesday, and early on Wednesday the Israeli Air Force attacked four targets in the Gaza Strip in response.

However, following the rocket firing, Hamas security forces arrested a number of militants from the al-Quds Brigade, the armed wing of Islamic Jihad. At the same time, Egyptian officials on Wednesday demanded that "Israel hold its aggression," and practice restraint toward the Gaza strip. Jerusalem Post (27-May) and AP and Times of Israel

ISIS and Hamas turn on each other after Yarmouk invasion

ISIS in Gaza has apparently been operating since last Gaza's summer war with Israel, but its existence has been denied or played down by Hamas. On November 3 of last year, the group pledged allegiance to ISIS. In response to questions about whether the group would be targeting Hamas, a spokesman said:

"Hamas should not have any concerns regarding the announcement of [ISIS in] Sinai. Despite their differences, ISIS does not target Hamas, since the group is confronting the Egyptian army. [ISIS in Sinai] would protect Gaza from any possible attacks by Egyptian President Abdel Fattah al-Sisi."

That attitude began to change dramatically in April, when ISIS invaded the Palestinian refugee camp at Yarmouk in Syria in April. ( "10-Apr-15 World View -- Syria's Yarmouk refugee camp descends into the 'deepest circle of Hell'")

The invasion caused the latest flip-flop in Hamas's relationship with Bashar al-Assad in Syria. Hamas and al-Assad used to be close allies, and Hamas's headquarters were actually located in Damascus, Syria's capital city. But then in 2011 al-Assad started massacring and butchering innocent Sunni Arab women and children in Syria, and this forced Hamas to turn against al-Assad, and move its headquarters to Doha Qatar.

But the invasion of the Yarmouk camp has thoroughly roiled the situation again. ISIS is inflicting its usual gruesome massacres on the Palestinians in Yarmouk, and the only defender of Yarmouk is al-Assad. In particular, ISIS beheaded several Palestinians, including a senior Hamas official in the camp.

So now Hamas is tentatively allying itself again with al-Assad, at least for the purposes of defending the Yarmouk camp. In addition, Hamas promised to exact revenge.

So that all happened in April. At the beginning of May, Hamas retaliated against ISIS by demolishing a mosque used by the ISIS in Gaza group and arrested dozens of its members, including several ISIS preachers in Gaza.

In response, ISIS called Hamas "worse than the Jewish and American occupiers." (As an aside, recall that I recently quoted an Egyptian sheik who said that Shia Muslims are worse than Jews and Crusaders.)

The clashes between ISIS in Gaza and Hamas are continuing to escalate, and ISIS is continuing to trigger further conflicts throughout the Mideast. Gulf News/Financial Times and International Business Times (16-July-2014) and Israel National News (7-May) and Al Monitor (20-Nov-2014)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-Jun-15 World View -- Hamas and ISIS turn on each other in the Gaza Strip thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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1-Jun-15 World View -- Report: Russia may end support for Syria's Bashar al-Assad

Greece faces new financial crisis with no solution in sight

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Report: Russia may end support for Syria's Bashar al-Assad


Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin (Reuters)
Bashar al-Assad and Vladimir Putin (Reuters)

According to a report in Asharq Al-Awsat, there are signs of a dramatic U-turn in Russia's policy toward the regime of Bashar al-Assad in Syria, including consideration of a future without al-Assad, according to unnamed Russian officials. This admission would be the first of its kind from Russian officials.

Since the Syrian conflict began in 2011, Russia's support has been essential to the survival of al-Assad. Al-Assad, a member of the Alawite/Shia religious group, began using heavy weapons on peaceful Sunni Muslim demonstrators. He's flattened entire Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed children by sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed dozens with sarin gas, and he continues to kill countless more with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas dropped from helicopters.

Al-Assad's genocidal sectarian attack on Sunnis caused the formation of Iraqi rebel groups, such as the Free Syrian Army (FSA). But it also triggered a worldwide tsunami of young men from around the world traveling to Syria to fight against al-Assad, joining the al-Qaeda linked Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front), and causing the creation of the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh).

Al-Assad predicted a quick victory in 2012, and that might have happened if his only enemy had been the FSA. But he began to suffer defeats at the hands of al-Nusra and ISIS, and his regime could only continue with the help of a massive supply of heavy weapons from Russia, fighters from Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC), and fighters from the Lebanon-based Iran-back terror group Hezbollah.

But even with all that help from three different countries, al-Assad's army has suffered one setback after another. In just the last couple of weeks, the army lost the big Palmyra air base to ISIS, including its large stocks of ammo and military equipment, and Syrian military and air units have begun pulling out of the big air base at Deir ez-Zour. Because of falling morale, enormous casualty rates, and significant increases in draft-dodging, desertions and defections, the army of al-Assad is showing signs of collapse.

The stunning ISIS victories in Iraq are certainly being watched carefully by those remaining in Syria's army. In particular, every time Iraqi soldiers drop their weapons and flee from oncoming ISIS fighters, Syrian soldiers may be thinking of doing the same. Desertion by a few divisions or brigades, following the example of the Iraqis, could be all it takes for al-Assad's army to collapse completely. Asharq Al-Awsat (Riyadh) and Jerusalem Post and Debka

Russia searches for a plan for a post-Assad Syria

The Asharq Al-Awsat report suggests that Russia is thinking about a post-Assad Syria, but few believe that Russia will end its support of al-Assad as long as he has a chance to survive.

The main problem is that the collapse of al-Assad's regime would probably mean a complete victory for ISIS, which would have control of Damascus, as well as large portions of Syria and Iraq.

There have been thousands of young jihadists around the world who came to Syria to fight the al-Assad regime. Once ISIS had defeated al-Assad, many of those jihadists would wish to return to their home countries. This will subject almost every nation in the world to potential terror attacks. For Russia, it would mean that the armies of Chechen soldiers fighting in Syria would return to Chechnya and join the Chechen separatist movement. Russia's president Vladimir Putin would get what deserved for having supported al-Assad, but unfortunately, every other country would suffer as well.

The problem is that no one has a serious post-Assad plan. Iran and Hezbollah have increased deployments in Syria, but not enough to replace the lost soldiers in al-Assad's shrinking army. As a result, Iran and Hezbollah have begun paid recruitment efforts among Shias in Pakistan and Hazaras in Afghanistan. Jerusalem Post and The National (UAE) and Debka and Foreign Policy

Greece faces new financial crisis with no solution in sight

It seems that Greece is always just a few days away from total bankruptcy, but then always manages to come up with the funds to get through the next deadline. Greece is due to repay 300 million euros to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) by Friday of this week, and it's not known where it will get the funds, nor how it will the funds to pay three more installments in June, with all four totaling 1.6 billion euros.

The Europeans and the IMF are demanding that Greece reduce pension payouts and its bloated public sector, something that prime minister Alexis Tsipras and his far-left Syriza party have refused to do. According to a news article written by Tsipras on Sunday:

"If we have not reached an agreement with our partners, it’s not because of our intransigence or incomprehensible positions from the Greek side. It is rather because of the obsession of some institutional representatives who insist on unreasonable solutions and are being indifferent to the democratic result of recent Greek elections.

Currently, 44.5 percent of pensioners receive a pension under the fixed threshold of relative poverty while approximately 23.1 percent of pensioners ... live in danger of poverty and social exclusion. These numbers ... cannot be tolerated – not simply in Greece but in any civilized country."

On Sunday, Tsipras held a "constructive" phone call with German Chancellor Angela Merkel and France's president François Hollande, but there was no sign of a deal. Irish Times and Kathimerini

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-Jun-15 World View -- Report: Russia may end support for Syria's Bashar al-Assad thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-Jun-2015) Permanent Link
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31-May-15 World View -- EU rescues 4300 migrants in one day as country quotas are enacted

US-China tensions in South China Sea take another step upward

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

US-China tensions in South China Sea take another step upward


Sun Jianguo from the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy chats with US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter in Singapore on Saturday (AFP)
Sun Jianguo from the Chinese People's Liberation Army Navy chats with US Secretary of Defense Ash Carter in Singapore on Saturday (AFP)

Secretary of State Ashton Carter gave a speech on Saturday morning in Singapore at a regional security conference. Once again, he implied that the US will militarily challenge China's plans in the South China sea:

"So let me make clear the position of the United States:

First, we want a peaceful resolution of all disputes. To that end, there should be an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation by all claimants. We also oppose any further militarization of disputed features. We all know there is no military solution to the South China Sea disputes. Right now, at this critical juncture, is the time for renewed diplomacy, focused on a finding a lasting solution that protects the rights and the interests of all. As it is central to the regional security architecture, ASEAN must be a part of this effort: the United States encourages ASEAN and China to conclude a Code of Conduct this year. And America will support the right of claimants to pursue international legal arbitration and other peaceful means to resolve these disputes, just as we will oppose coercive tactics.

Second, the United States will continue to protect freedom of navigation and overflight – principles that have ensured security and prosperity in this region for decades. There should be no mistake: the United States will fly, sail, and operate wherever international law allows, as U.S. forces do all over the world. America, alongside its allies and partners in the regional architecture, will not be deterred from exercising these rights – the rights of all nations. After all, turning an underwater rock into an airfield simply does not afford the rights of sovereignty or permit restrictions on international air or maritime transit.

Finally, with its actions in the South China Sea, China is out of step with both the international rules and norms that underscore the Asia-Pacific’s security architecture, and the regional consensus that favors diplomacy and opposes coercion. These actions are spurring nations to respond together in new ways."

Here is a summary of the main points that will infuriate the Chinese:

There have been unconfirmed reports that the Chinese have installed mobile artillery weapons on one of China's man-made islands. A Vietnam official said, "If it has actually happened it is a very bad sign for what is already a very complicated situation in the South China Sea."

In response to Carter's speech, People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Senior Colonel Zhao Xiaozhuo said:

"Over the past decades, the region has been peaceful and stable, just because of China's great restraint. So I think China's activities are ... legitimate, reasonable and justified."

I've been puzzling over what this statement means. Zhao appears to be saying that the South China Sea has been China's sovereign territory for the past decades, but China has been kind enough to let other nations use it, and the only reason that there hasn't been a war so far is "because of China's great restraint." Is he saying that this restraint is coming to an end?

In response my article last week, "26-May-15 World View -- China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable", one web site reader commented: "In 2008, well connected people I know in China said Xi Jinping 'would not mind going to war with America.' To-date actions have played out as explained to me." I've read hundreds of articles about China's president Xi Jinping over the last couple of years, and everything I've read is consistent with this comment.

When Xi took office in 2013, he gave a number of speeches about "China's Dream," in which he called for China to shed its past as a secondary player, and become the world's top military and economic power. He visited Chinese military bases and told the troops to be ready for war at any time. He vowed that China will take every step necessary to gain control of the East China Sea and South China Sea regions, including areas that have been owned by other countries for centuries.

China has had a major policy change in the last few months. They used to deny that the land reclamation had any military purpose, but now they're openly acknowledging that the islands are for military purposes.

China is in a massive state of denial, believing that they will win a war quickly, because the US will quickly back down. One possible first step is likely to be to shoot down an unmanned drone, or even a manned surveillance plane, saying that it's an unauthorized entry into China's sovereign territory. They believe that Obama is so weak that he won't retaliate, and they're completely wrong about that.

It's hard for me to see how the status quo is going to continue much longer. In the worst case scenario, which is the one I expect and the one that Generational Dynamics predicts, the war will go on for several years and engulf the entire world. Dept. of Defense and Xinhua and Defense News and Reuters

EU rescues 4300 migrants in one day as country quotas are enacted

European Union vessels rescued 4300 migrants from waters off the coast of Libya on Friday and Saturday, packed into 9 boats and 13 large rubber dinghies. Seventeen dead bodies were found, people who had died from exhaustion, thirst or exposure.

More than 40,000 migrants and asylum seekers have reached Italy so far this year. An estimated 1,800, including women and children, lost their lives during the journey. Last year, Italy rescued some 170,000 migrants at sea.

The huge surge in arrivals follow a pattern. There were several days with no rescues, because stormy weather prevented boats from leaving Libya. But calm seas on Friday brought a flood of smuggler launches.

The EU government in Brussels enacted a controversial quota system this week. EU countries will accept around 60,000 refugees, and each country will be required to take in a number of refugees, based on a calculation that looked at each country's size, GDP and unemployment rate. France has a quota of 7,000. Germany has a quota of 8,700. Sweden has a quota of 1,300. A financial incentive of 6,000 euros for each migrant has been offered to member states.

Britain has a constitutional right to opt out of the quota system, and has already it will do so. Ireland and Denmark are also expected not to take part. Irish Independent and Al Jazeera and The Local (France)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 31-May-15 World View -- EU rescues 4300 migrants in one day as country quotas are enacted thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (31-May-2015) Permanent Link
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30-May-15 World View -- ISIS suicide bombers strike Shia mosques in Saudi Arabia and Baghdad

ISIS continues to gain supporters throughout the Mideast

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

ISIS suicide bombers strike Shia mosques in Saudi Arabia and Baghdad


Two Shia Saudi boys stand at the graves of 21 people killed in the May 22 attack on a Shia mosque (EPA)
Two Shia Saudi boys stand at the graves of 21 people killed in the May 22 attack on a Shia mosque (EPA)

The Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is claiming responsibility for a suicide bombing during Friday prayers in the Shia Al Anoud mosque in Dammam, in eastern Saudi Arabia. A male was disguised in women's clothing to evade detection by heavy security surrounding the mosque. He was stopped by security just as he entered the mosque and detonated the device. Three people were killed.

This follows by one week the bombing of another Shia mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia. ISIS claimed responsibility, and said it would not rest until all Shias were driven from the Arabian Peninsula.

Saudi officials condemned the terrorist bombing, and said it was an attempt to destabilize the security and unity of the Kingdom and local social cohesion:

"Terrorists seek to destabilize the Arab and Islamic nations’ security. Terrorism will never succeed in dividing the Saudi nation or destabilize national security."

However, it appears that ISIS is doing exactly that, throughout the Mideast and Asia.

Also on Friday, ISIS claimed responsibility car bombings outside two heavily guarded hotels in central Baghdad, killing ten people. The bombings are considered reprisals against the Shia Baghdad government for sending Shia militias to attempt to recapture Ramadi from ISIS. ISIS seized Ramadi, the capital of Anbar Province, two weeks ago when the Iraqi army fled.

And it was just three weeks ago when when terrorists in Karachi attacked a bus full of Shias, killing 45, and left behind leaflets accusing Shias of "barbaric atrocities," and warning of the "Advent of the Islamic State!" Arab News and AFP and Reuters

ISIS continues to gain supporters throughout the Mideast

A recent poll conducted by Al Jazeera Arabic asked the question, "Do you support the organizing victories of the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria (ISIS)?" An overwhelming 81% of those responding voted "Yes".

Al Jazeera Arabic has an overwhelmingly Sunni Muslim audience, mostly in Saudi Arabia and Egypt, and the respondents were self-selected. But the size of the positive response shows that there's a sufficiently large population of ISIS supporters in the Mideast to feed its growth.

Furthermore, stories continue of young male jihadists from Asia, Africa, Europe and Russia traveling to Syria to join ISIS, and young females traveling there as well to marry them. They're attracted by the fact that ISIS appears to be winning in Iraq and Syria, and even defeating large enemies, including Iran, Hezbollah and the United States. In addition, reports indicate that ISIS is using its vast oil wealth to pay its fighters well.

For decades, activist rhetoric around the Mideast has been targeted against Israel. But we're increasingly seeing that the conflict with Israel is becoming less important than the conflict with Iran and with Shias in general.

According to Egyptian cleric, Khaled Al-Kholif, the fight against Shias is more important than the war against "the Jews and Crusaders":

"Our problem with the Jews and Christians in this world is ongoing. You get rid of the Christians, and along come the Jews, and so on.

Our war with [the Shias] is a war of religion and of existence. This is not a war over Arab identity, over some regional issue, over petroleum, or over border crossings. It is much more serious than that. It is a war over religion and its basic principles. It is a war between us and them over religious creed. ...

Is it justified to be worried about modern Shiite ideology? The answer is: Yes. It is justified a thousand times over. Anyone who does not know and feel this should remember history. We don't want another [Shiite conqueror] like the Fatimid Al-Muizz li-Din Allah."

Al-Kholif is invoking the name of the Fatimid caliph Al-Muizz li-Din Allah. Al-Muizz is considered to be the founder of Cairo, but to Egyptians he was the Shia conqueror of Cairo in 969, putting Egypt under Shia Fatimid control for a century. The fact that this battle is being mentioned today shows how deeply and bitterly the Egyptian people still remember that event of over a millennium ago. Al-Kholif continued:

If those [Shiites] gain power and become firmly established, the Jews and the Crusaders will become the decision-makers in our own countries. We will become foreigners in our own countries. The nation must confront these [Shiites] by all possible means. ...

Our war with the Jews is a simple one, but our war with these [Shiites] is very serious, and we must commence it."

Why would a victory of Shias mean that Jews and Crusaders would become the decision makers? The explanation is that Al-Muizz got along very well with Jews and Christians, because most of the citizens were Sunni Muslims who hated Shias. As a result, Christian and Jewish intellectuals were often appointed as officials and ministers, and they became the decision makers in the land of the Sunni Muslims in Egypt.

So Al-Kholif's argument is really quite remarkable. Fighting Jews and Christians is just a war over "over petroleum, or over border crossings," and losing is not very consequential. But losing a war to Shias is far more serious, because the Jews and Christians will become the decision-makers, as happened in the time of Al-Muizz, and "We will become foreigners in our own countries." Amazing!

You know, when one is trying to understand other cultures, one is always astounded by little nuggets of information like this, where a battle that took place over a millennium ago is being used to justify a war today. People who are surprised by this should remember how much American policy today is still being influenced by the events of 1776.

It also helps to remember that when we talk about something happening in the Mideast, and blame it on something that Bush did or didn't do, or on something that Obama said or didn't say -- it's far more likely that anything that happened in America is far less important than the events of centuries ago in the Mideast. Breitbart News and Memri and Jewish Virtual Library

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-May-15 World View -- ISIS suicide bombers strike Shia mosques in Saudi Arabia and Baghdad thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (30-May-2015) Permanent Link
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29-May-15 World View -- As Russia's economy worsens, withdrawal from Ukraine may be necessary

US-China military tensions get rapidly inflamed over South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Russia using mobile crematoriums to continue pretense about Ukraine


A group of Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainian authorities in August, 2014 (Reuters)
A group of Russian soldiers captured by Ukrainian authorities in August, 2014 (Reuters)

It's an irony. On the one hand, Russia's Vladimir Putin is supporting the anti-government militias in East Ukraine with Russian weapons and thousands of Russian troops in order to stoke nationalism in Russia and burnish his popularity with the Russian people. But on the other hand, he can't admit that there are Russian troops in Ukraine because Russia's economy is so bad.

It's becoming increasingly difficult for Russian leaders to hide the fact that Russian soldiers are dying in eastern Ukraine in large numbers, but a number of sources are indicating that a way has been found.

Russia is using mobile crematoriums -- crematoriums on wheels -- to burn the bodies of Russian soldiers who die in east Ukraine.

According to House Armed Services Committee Chairman Mac Thornberry:

"The Russians are trying to hide their casualties by taking mobile crematoriums with them. They are trying to hide not only from the world but from the Russian people their involvement."

The mounting evidence of dead Russian soldiers is causing a domestic backlash for Putin. But burning the bodies of Russian soldiers killed in battle, instead of treating them as dead heroes, is causing a backlash in the army, and making it harder than ever to justify the military action in Ukraine. Bloomberg and Business Insider

Russia's economic crisis may force withdrawal from Ukraine

The Russian government's original 2015 budget was based on the assumption that the price of oil would be $100 per barrel, that Russia's GDP would grow by 2%, and that inflation would not exceed 5%. None of those assumptions has proven true. Oil has fallen to around $50 per barrel, and Russia's GDP has contracted 4% instead of growing. The inflation rate has exceed 15%.

Even worse, Russia's military spending is far higher than expected. It was budgeted at an already very high level of 4.5% of GDP, but during the first three months of this year it exceeded 9% of GDP -- twice more than planned. Most European countries are not spending more than 2% of GDP on defense; the US spends 3.5%, and only nine countries in the entire world are now spending more than 4%.

Russia's high rate of military spending is forcing it to dip into its reserve fund. If that level of funding continues, Russia's reserve fund will be exhausted before the end of the year.

The strategic aims of Russia's war against Ukraine are extremely unclear, and it's increasingly difficult to justify the Russian military intervention. Even the annexation of Crimea has turning into an economic calamity.

Russia is soon going to have to make some difficult decisions, and only bad options are available. Window on Eurasia and Jamestown

US-China military tensions get rapidly inflamed over South China Sea

Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter said on Wednesday:

"There should be no mistake about this: The United States will fly, sail and operate wherever international law allows, as we do all around the world. ...

We want a peaceful resolution of all disputes, and an immediate and lasting halt to land reclamation by any claimant. We also oppose any further militarization of disputed features."

However, China is openly doing all of those things, and is building a series of military bases in the South China Sea in international waters and in waters that have historically belonged to Vietnam and the Philippines.

As we reported earlier this week, China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable. Since then, China has issued an extremely aggressive Military Strategy document indicating the intention "to seize the strategic initiative in military struggle, proactively plan for military struggle in all directions and domains, and grasp the opportunities to accelerate military building, reform and development."

Chinese media responded to Ashton Carter's remarks with:

"The dangerous provocation of the US, driven by their illusion of the worst-case scenario, is unwise and reckless. It is pressing Beijing to act in compliance with Washington's desire. However, China won't dance to the rhythm of the US."

All of these are signs that nationalism is increasing significantly on both sides, and that a major military confrontation is building. And in this generational Crisis era, such a military confrontation will lead to full-scale war. I've been writing for ten years that China is planning preemptive war on the United States, and it's hard to escape the feeling that the time is getting close. Washington Times and Global Times (Beijing) and Full Text: China's Military Strategy

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-May-15 World View -- As Russia's economy worsens, withdrawal from Ukraine may be necessary thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-May-2015) Permanent Link
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28-May-15 World View -- ISIS stokes sectarian Sunni-Shia clashes across the Mideast and Asia

Sunni Arabs are being forced to choose between ISIS and Shias

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

ISIS stokes sectarian Sunni-Shia clashes across the Mideast and Asia


A Pakistani security official displays cartridges from the scene of an attack on a bus, killing 45 Ismaili Shias two weeks ago(AP)
A Pakistani security official displays cartridges from the scene of an attack on a bus, killing 45 Ismaili Shias two weeks ago(AP)

I am not among those who worry that the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) is going to take control of the entire Arabian Peninsula, but one thing that's clear is that ISIS is becoming the focal point of the increasingly hostile fault line between Sunnis and Shias.

Pakistan has long been a hotbed of Sunni-Shia clashes, as certain branches of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP - Pakistan Taliban), such as Jundullah and Lashkar-e Jhangvi (LeJ), specifically target Shias. But this is being taken to a new level, as we reported two weeks ago, when terrorists in Karachi attacked a bus full of Ismaili Shias, killing 45, and left behind leaflets accusing Shias of "barbaric atrocities," and warning of the "Advent of the Islamic State!" That's not to say that previous terrorist attacks on Shias were not equally horrific, but the overlay of referring to the advent of ISIS is inflaming sectarian tensions throughout the region.

Similarly, we reported last week of the bombing of a Shia mosque in Saudi Arabia. ISIS claimed responsibility, and said it would not rest until all Shias were driven from the Arabian Peninsula. VOA and Reuters

Iraq's government changes name of military operation to recapture Ramadi

After ISIS's stunning seizure of the city of Ramadi a few days ago, with the Iraqi army fleeing from the approaching ISIS militias, the Iraq government has launched a military operation to recapture Ramadi, using Iran-trained Shia militias known as Hashid Shaabi (popular mobilization units). This is raising sectarian fears among the Sunni tribes around Ramadi, who are afraid that the Shia militias will commit similar atrocities on Sunnis that they did after the earlier recapture of the city of Tikrit.

In fact, Iraq's government seemed to be headed in that direction, when they called the attack "Operation Labaik ya Hussein," which roughly translates as "We are at your service, Hussein." The name refers to Hussein ibn Ali (or Husayn ibn Ali) who is considered to be a revered Shia saint. He was killed in 680 at the Battle of Karbala, which was the seminal battle that resulted in the Sunni-Shia split.

The choice of that name was severely criticized by Sunni leaders, and was described as "unhelpful" by the Pentagon. Because of the pressure, the Shia militias have renamed the planned attack "Operation Labaik ya Iraq," meaning, "We are at your service, Iraq."

This kerfuffle over the name of the operation shows how sensitive the Sunni-Shia split is, and how many officials are concerned about a sectarian backlash. Rudaw (Iraq) and Reuters

Sunni Arabs are being forced to choose between ISIS and Shias

With sectarian conflict growing in the Mideast, many Sunni Muslims are in a position where they are going to be forced to choose between ISIS and Shias. This is true to some extent in Syria, Iraq and Lebanon, as neighborhoods and groups become polarized along sectarian lines. For these Sunnis, the choice may be facing atrocities by ISIS versus atrocities by Shias.

According to an article translation by Memri, an Egyptian cleric Sheik Dr. Ahmad Al-Naqib was asked this question. He uses the word "Rafidites," which is a pejorative term for Shias:

"I was asked: What is your opinion about ISIS and its conduct? Should one pledge allegiance to ISIS? Does refraining from this constitute a sin? This question is part of the catastrophe that has afflicted the lands of Islam. ...

We must not say that this creation [ISIS], with its rulings and its conduct, is in keeping with the rightly-guided Islamic state that we must obey, especially since much consideration is required to determine whether this "Islamic State" qualifies as a state. They experience ups and downs. Again and again, they conquer land, which is then taken from them. In addition, as far as their upbringing is concerned, most of them are non-Arabs. This is a very dangerous issue. ...

There is no doubt, however, that they are much better than the criminal Rafidites [Shias], who kill the Sunnis because of their Sunni identity, and who kill, rape, and burn the Muslims wherever they may be. They are better than the [Shias], and their victories over the Rafidites are good for Islam, but God knows best. ...

Despite their transgressions, injustice, wrongdoing, and aggression, they are better than the Rafidites. They are better than the criminal Rafidites, who kill Sunnis just because they are Sunnis."

There have been numerous sectarian wars between Sunnis and Shias over the centuries, and there have been numerous atrocities committed on both sides. But in recent times, Al-Naqib was undoubtedly referring to Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

Like many Arab Sunnis are appalled that Syria's president Bashar al-Assad has been conducting virtual genocide against his own people. Syria's Shia/Alawite president Bashar al-Assad has flattened entire Sunni villages with Russia's heavy weapons, he's killed children by sending missiles into exam rooms and bedrooms, he's killed dozens with sarin gas, and he's killed countless more with barrel bombs loaded with explosives, metals, and chlorine gas. In addition, he's used electrocution, eye-gouging, strangulation, starvation, and beating on tens of thousands of prisoners on a massive "industrial strength" scale, and does with complete impunity, and in fact with troops and weapons from Russia, Iran and Hezbollah.

So, from the point of view of Americans, Al-Naqib's remarks about ISIS and Shias seem revolting, but from the point of view of Sunni Arabs, ISIS is the lesser of the two evils.

In the political news the last few days, it seems that both the Democratic President Barack Obama and the Republican presidential candidate Rand Paul have come to full agreement that ISIS was created by the Republicans. This conclusion is absurd on its face, since ISIS was formed in Syria, not Iraq. The bizarre conclusion is part of the conceit of Americans that everything is caused by Americans, and other people have no histories of their own.

Once again, al-Qaeda in Iraq (AQI) was created by Jordanian terrorist Abu Musab al-Zarqawi. As I wrote in 2007 in "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq", al-Zarqawi was unable to find Iraqis who were willing to be suicide bombers, or shed blood in any way, so he had to bring in Jordanian and Saudi terrorists from abroad. Al-Zarqawi was killed by an American drone strike in 2006, and AQI was completely driven out of Iraq in 2007 by Iraqi Sunnis in the "Anbar Awakening," with the help of President George Bush's "surge."

As I've written many times, ISIS came into existence because of al-Assad's actions. By 2012, it was becoming obvious that Sunni jihadists from countries around the world were heading for Syria to fight against al-Assad. These jihadists became the fighters that formed the backbone of the militias that became ISIS, and other salafist militias. There were no jihadists heading for Syria during the Bush administration, and there were no jihadists heading for Syria during Obama's first term, so neither Bush or Obama can be held responsible for creating ISIS. However, it is possible to blame Obama for the growth of ISIS, for not killing al-Assad in 2011-12 when he had the chance, and for not leaving any troops behind in Iraq after the December 2011 withdrawal.

Whatever happened in the past, Al-Naqib's remarks represent widely held opinions in the Arab Sunni world, and they indicate that the Muslim world is headed for a massive Sunni-Shia sectarian war. Memri

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-May-15 World View -- ISIS stokes sectarian Sunni-Shia clashes across the Mideast and Asia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-May-2015) Permanent Link
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27-May-15 World View -- Major terror attack in Kabul underscores dire Afghan travel warning

Hackers obtain IRS tax filings for 104,000 taxpayers

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

State Dept. issues alarming Afghanistan travel warning


Afghan security forces patrol in Kunduz, Afghanistan, on April 30 (Reuters)
Afghan security forces patrol in Kunduz, Afghanistan, on April 30 (Reuters)

The State Dept. on Friday issued a dire travel warning for Afghanistan that indicates that the security situation is unstable across the entire country. This warning goes much farther than any previous administration statements about Afghanistan:

"The U.S. government remains highly concerned about possible attacks on U.S. citizens (whether visiting or residing in Afghanistan), U.S. facilities, businesses, and perceived U.S. and foreign interests. Attacks may target official government convoys and compounds, including Afghan and U.S. government facilities, foreign embassies and military installations, as well as restaurants, hotels, airports, non-governmental organization (NGO) offices, international organizations, religious institutions, educational centers, foreign guest houses, and other commercial entities.

Extremists associated with various Taliban networks and members of other armed opposition groups are active in every province of the country. Despite numerous security operations and checkpoints by Afghan and coalition forces in and around the capital, Kabul is at high risk for militant attacks, including vehicle-borne improvised explosive devices (VBIED), direct and indirect fire, and suicide bombings. The same risks also exist in other major cities in Afghanistan, including Herat, Mazar-e-Sharif, and Kandahar. A strong possibility for hostile acts exists throughout the country at all times, either targeted or random, against both U.S. and other foreign nationals. An ongoing risk of kidnapping exists throughout Afghanistan."

The dire warning indicates that provinces across the country are unstable, and that even heavily protected areas in the capital city Kabul are unsafe.

This point was underscored late Tuesday evening and Wednesday morning, when heavily armed militants stormed an upscale, heavily protected neighborhood in Kabul, resulting in a fierce gun battle and at least 20 explosions. At this writing, the attack is still ongoing.

The new travel advisory represents a major change in position by the administration, essentially admitting that the withdrawal plan from Afghanistan is not working. It comes at the same time that Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter admitted that the Iraq plan is not working, because "the Iraqi forces just showed no will to fight." Both announcements were made over the Memorial Day weekend. U.S. State Department and AP

Afghan militia strategy revives hostility and conflicts of 1990s crisis civil war

Afghanistan's increasing instability as American troops withdraw is causing the government in Kabul to change strategies. It's increasingly clear that the Afghan army is not able to prevent attacks by insurgents.

As a result, Kabul is reviving the conflicts of the extremely bloody Afghanistan generational crisis civil war, fought between 1991 and 1996. That war was fought mainly between the Pashtuns in southern Afghanistan versus the Northern Alliance of Tajiks, Hazaras and Uzbeks in northern Afghanistan.

Today's Taliban terrorists are radicalized Pashtuns. And so, in northern Afghanistan, the Kabul government is calling on militias from the old Northern Alliance to come forward and fight their old Pashtun foes. The effort is expected to mobilize thousands of Afghans from the Northern Alliance to fight against the Pashtun Taliban.

Some analysts are concerned that this will trigger a new major civil war. But Afghanistan is in a generational Awakening era, so a new crisis civil war is impossible. The 1990s civil war was extremely bloody and genocidal, and there are several generations of survivors of that war who are still alive and will prevent anything like it from happening again.

However, that doesn't mean that reviving the Northern Alliance will bring peace. It will bring the usual post-civil war template of periods of conflict alternating with periods of each. Each period of conflict will be worse than the previous one, and each will end with some peace agreement that will bring peace for a few years. That's what almost always happen in any country after a civil war. The alternating periods of conflict and peace continue for decades, until finally all the survivors of the preceding crisis civil war are gone, and then a new bloody genocidal crisis civil war breaks out again. Hindustan Times and International Business Times

Hackers obtain IRS tax filings for 104,000 taxpayers

The Internal Revenue Service (IRS) announced that hackers obtained the tax returns of approximately 104,000 taxpayers. The hackers apparently used names and social security numbers that had been obtained from previous hacks. They used that information in the IRS "Get Transcript" application to get entire transcripts of previous tax return filings.

Once the hackers obtain a taxpayer's tax filings, they can use it to apply for fraudulent incomes, in addition to using the information from the tax filing to defraud the taxpayer.

The IRS believes that the hacking began some time in February, though they didn't notice it until mid-May.

The IRS has been repeatedly warned by experts that its data security systems are inadequate. Accounting Today and AP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-May-15 World View -- Major terror attack in Kabul underscores dire Afghan travel warning thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (27-May-2015) Permanent Link
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26-May-15 World View -- China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable

China's military using jamming against US drones in South China Sea

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Vietnam protests China's fishing ban in the Gulf of Tonkin


Anti-Chinese environment activists in Manila protest in front of the Chinese embassy, shooting Chinese flags with water guns (Reuters)
Anti-Chinese environment activists in Manila protest in front of the Chinese embassy, shooting Chinese flags with water guns (Reuters)

Vietnam is protesting China's unilateral ban on fishing in Vietnamese waters that include the Gulf of Tonkin, nominally "to promote the sustainable development of the fishing industry." The ban will last until August 1.

Vietnamese officials are advising their shipping industry to ignore the ban.

China is claiming that the ban is required for ecological reasons, but ecological activists in Manila are demanding that China stop its ecological destruction caused by ongoing activities to build man-made islands in the South China Sea. Thanh Nien News (Hanoi) and Reuters

China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable

According to commentary in China's Global Times newspaper:

"If the United States' bottom line is that China has to halt its activities, then a U.S.-China war is inevitable in the South China Sea.

The intensity of the conflict will be higher than what people usually think of as 'friction.'"

There are actually two separate (though related) issues here, and it's unclear whether this threat of war applies to one or both issues.

As we reported last week, the level of military tension between the US and China escalated substantially when China repeatedly demanded that an American P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane leave the area immediately. The plane was surveilling China's man-made islands in the Spratly Islands in the South China Sea.

So the first issue is that China is demanding an end to American surveillance activities over the Spratly Islands.

The second issue is that the US State Dept. is demanding an end to China's island-building. According to U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Antony Blinken, speaking in Jakarta last week on Wednesday:

"As China seeks to make sovereign land out of sandcastles and redraw maritime boundaries, it is eroding regional trust and undermining investor confidence.

Its behavior threatens to set a new precedent, whereby larger countries are free to intimidate smaller ones, and that provokes tensions, instability and can even lead to conflict."

China's Foreign Ministry responded:

"Comments of this sort are not good for the solving of tensions and are not beneficial for the mutual trust between countries as well as maintaining the peace and the stability of the South China Sea region."

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

In recent months, China has repeated escalated the military aggression by using land reclamation projects to construct man-made islands for military bases and airports in regions surrounding the Spratly Islands that have previously belonged to Vietnam and the Philippines.

The US says that it will continue surveillance missions over international waters. However, the Chinese claim that the entire South China Sea is their sovereign territory, so there are no international waters.

On Thursday of last week, Assistant Secretary of State Daniel Russel said that U.S. naval forces and military aircraft would "continue to fully exercise" the right to operate in international waters and airspace:

"Nobody in their right mind is going to try to stop the U.S. Navy from operating - that would not be a good bet.

But it’s not enough that a U.S. military plane can overfly international waters, even if there is challenge or hailing query ... We believe that every country and all civilian actors should have unfettered access to international waters and international airspace."

Well, whether the Chinese military leaders are in their right minds is certainly open to question, but there's little doubt that the Chinese are, at some point, going to take some military action to stop the surveillance flights. Global Times and International Business Times and Al-Jazeera and Reuters

China's military using jamming against US drones in South China Sea

If China is to take the next step in military action against the United States in the South China Sea, one possible direct target would Global Hawk surveillance drones as they conduct surveillance over the Spratly Islands.

The Washington Free Beacon is reporting that China has tried to electronically jam US drone flights over the South China Sea, in order to prevent ground stations from communicating with the drones. There may be an additional objective of trying to capture a drone by getting it to crash in shallow waters.

Putting on my software engineering hat, I would hope that isn't possible. When the Global Hawk takes off from Guam, the software should be programmed to respond to jamming by continuing on a pre-programmed path to continue surveillance and return to Guam.

When Iran captured an American drone by taking electronic control while it was traveling over Afghanistan, I could never understand how that was possible, unless the programmers who wrote the software for the drone had been so sloppy that they didn't anticipate that possibility. At any rate, let's hope that there have been "lessons learned," and that that have been applied to the Global Hawk drones flying over the South China Sea.

However, electronic warfare is not the only possibility. China's military could shoot down a drone, or could attempt to snatch one in flight using a manned aircraft.

If/when China wants to take the next step with a military action against the United States in the South China Sea, the drones may present an attractive military target. Washington Free Beacon

China's media describes 'bottom line' for war with US

Because of some confusion surrounding this story, I wanted to get more information about China's analysis of the situation. I went to the original Global Times article in Chinese, and got a machine translation, which is pretty garbled. The following is my attempt to extract key sentences from the machine translation of the original article in Chinese:

"When US reconnaissance aircraft flew over the Spratly (Nansha) Islands last week, she was repeatedly warned by China's navy, raising fears in the strategic community and the public of a possible outbreak of Sino-US military conflict in the South China Sea. How likely is such a military conflict, and how intense will it be?

First of all, provocations from the Philippines and Vietnam, with the support of US troops, make the possibility of Sino-US military conflict larger than in the past.

China cannot make infinitely many concessions [, and so will make no more concessions beyond its bottom line]. Then we will see how the United States sets their own bottom line, and whether the two sides can understand and respect each other's bottom line.

For China, the most important bottom line is to make the construction of the reefs continue until they are completed.

If the United States' bottom line is that China has to shut down its construction of the reefs, then a U.S.-China war is inevitable in the South China Sea. The intensity of the conflict will be higher than what people usually think of as 'friction.'

In addition China has a bottom line, that the United States must respect China's territorial sovereignty and maritime rights and interests in the South China Sea.

If the US continues to 'harass' China with American forces in the South China Sea, but shows restraint, then China will also show restraint.

But if the US military says that China is arrogant, and continues its provocative acts of public humiliation, then a conflict will be difficult to avoid. The Chinese army will fight for dignity.

China's determination to complete the reefs is very clear and firm. But the strategic goal of the United States is relatively vague. Whether there is peace or war in the South China Sea depends on the United States.

A US military aircraft or warship may use an 'accident' to provoke a war. This is like the year before the outbreak of the Vietnam War, when the US concocted a 'Gulf of Tonkin incident.'

US troops in the South China Sea seem arrogant, but they do not have underlying political and social support. This is clearly up and down the US military, so the Chinese saying, 'paper tiger' in fact refers to this situation."

The Global Times is the most nationalistic of government publications, and it doesn't always reflect official policy, but it does reflect what many in China's government are thinking.

As I've been saying for years, China has been rapidly building its military for years with a variety of weapons and missile systems that have no other purpose than to preemptively strike American aircraft carriers, American military bases, and American cities. Generational Dynamics predicts that China is preparing to launch a pre-emptive full-scale nuclear missile attack on the United States. There may not be a war tomorrow, but every week or two it becomes apparent that the trend toward war is unmistakable. Global Times (Chinese) (Translation)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-May-15 World View -- China says war with US in South China Sea is inevitable thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (26-May-2015) Permanent Link
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25-May-15 World View -- Scathing Iraq remarks by Ash Carter suggest imminent policy change

Some reports suggest intentional loss of Ramadi by Iraq's government

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

US administration's strategy in Iraq continues to fail


Iraqis fleeing Ramadi on Sunday (AP)
Iraqis fleeing Ramadi on Sunday (AP)

Last year, the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) stunned the world by seizing Mosul in Iraq. The Iraqi soldiers who were supposed to defend Mosul simply dropped their weapons and fled as the ISIS militias approached.

President Barack Obama had withdrawn all troops from Iraq in December 2011, and had assured the world that Iraq could take care of itself, without needing American troops. However, as ISIS scored major victories in Iraq, Obama was forced to change his position. On June 19, he said:

"We're prepared to send a small number of additional American advisors, up to 300, to assess how we can best train, advise and support Iraqis security force forces going forward I think we always have to guard against mission creep, so let me repeat what I've said in the past -- American combat troops are not going to be fighting in Iraq again."

Since then, President Obama has been forced to announce several increases in troop deployments, though always special forces and not "ground troops."

There have also been American airstrikes in Iraq and Syria, but many analysts say that they're almost completely ineffective. Some reports indicate that the pilots often return to base without having launched any airstrikes because of a lack of suitable targets.

One of the reasons that suitable airstrike targets cannot be identified is that Obama has not permitted US soldiers to be on the ground acting as "forward air controllers," who identify the targets on the ground then communicate their locations to the aircraft.

In the last two weeks, ISIS has scored several additional stunning victories.

On Sunday, ISIS took full control of a border crossing between Iraq and Syria. Earlier, ISIS captured the historic city of Palmyra in Syria, and the city of Ramadi in Iraq. This gives ISIS full control of the two main roads between Syria and Iraq's province of Anbar. The National (UAE) and Economist

Obama administration's rhetoric changes dramatically on Sunday

Initially, President Obama referred to the stunning seizure of Ramadi as a temporary "tactical setback," but on Sunday, the tone of the rhetoric from the Obama administration changed sharply. Secretary of Defense Ashton Carter, appearing on CNN, gave a scathing criticism of Iraq's army after its defeat in Ramadi:

"What apparently happened was that the Iraqi forces just showed no will to fight. They were not outnumbered but in fact they vastly outnumbered the opposing force, and yet they failed to fight. They withdrew from the site. And that says to me, and I think to most of us, that we have an issue with the will of the Iraqis to fight ISIL and defend themselves.

Now, we can give them training, we can give them equipment; we obviously can't give them the will to fight. But if we give them training, we give them equipment and give them support and give them some time, I hope they will develop the will to fight, because only if they fight can ISIL remain defeated."

Carter also agreed that airstrikes have not been very effective:

"Air strikes are effective but neither they nor really anything we do can substitute for the Iraqi forces' will to fight.

They're the ones who have that to beat ISIL and keep then keep them beaten. We can participate in the defeat of ISIL but we can't make Iraq run as a decent place for people to live. We can't sustain the victory. Only the Iraqis can do that, and in particular, in this case, the Sunni tribes to the west.

If there comes a time when we need to change the kinds of support we're giving to the Iraqi forces, we'll make that recommendation. But what happened at Ramadi was a failure of the Iraqi forces to fight. And so our efforts now are devoted to providing their ground forces with the equipment, the training, and to try to encourage their will to fight so that our campaign enabling them can be successful both in defeating ISIL and keeping ISIL defeated in a sustained way."

During Sunday's interview, Carter said that there are still no plans to use forward air controllers.

On the Sunday talk shows, both Democrats and Republicans criticized Obama's strategy in Iraq, with several calling the situation "a stalemate." One Democrat urged Obama to supply the Kurdish Peshmerga and Sunni tribesmen in Iraq, who she said are "literally begging, for arms, heavy weapons and ammunition" to defeat ISIS and protect their land and families.

One Republican, Illinois Rep. Adam Kinzinger, called for much more aggressive military action:

"You are not losing and you are not winning because we are not really engaged in this fight.

At some point, we're going to have to understand that the goal is the destruction of ISIS. ... We have to understand that every day that goes by where we don't push this cancer back ... the cost of liberating Iraq or the cost of defeating this cancer is only going to increase."

The scathing, undiplomatic criticism of Iraq's army by the Secretary of Defense, combined with criticisms of Obama from all sides, suggests that there is going to be a significant change of policy in the next few days. However, he will certainly try anything rather than ground troops, as that would be the ultimate humiliation after having suffered a long string of foreign policy humiliations, one after the other. CNN and The National (UAE) and Fox News

Some reports suggest intentional loss of Ramadi by Iraq's government

There are some reports that indicate that ISIS's seizure of Ramadi was accomplished with the help of Iraq's government in Baghdad, or at least with its intentional neglect.

According to a top Kurdish commander who fought the ISIS militias in Ramadi, he had received intelligence five days before the attack on Ramadi that 400 armed ISIS vehicles had entered Iraq from Syria, and at least 200 were headed for Ramadi. The commander asked his superiors in Baghdad to arrange for airstrikes to take out the vehicles, which would presumably have been easy targets. But no air strikes occurred.

Instead, ISIS sent 50 suicide bombers into the Iraq army defense lines. The suicide bombers had arrived from Syria. After that, seizing Ramadi was an easy victory for ISIS.

According to one Iraqi analyst, Baghdad's support of the Ramadi defenses was so bad, it must have been intentional. He suggests that any support for the Iraq army and the Sunni tribes in Ramadi would require giving weapons to Sunnis, which Baghdad did not want to do. Instead, Baghdad wanted the entire operation against ISIS to be conducted by Shia militias under the command of Iran's Al Qods Brigades commander Qassam Soleimani.

Arguing against this analysis is the fact that Soleimani was handily defeated by ISIS at the battle of Tikrit, and was forced to flee back to Tehran. Bringing him back to lead the fight in Ramadi would have to be considered a big risk. Rudaw (Iraq) and Middle East Briefing

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-May-15 World View -- Scathing Iraq remarks by Ash Carter suggest imminent policy change thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (25-May-2015) Permanent Link
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24-May-15 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) approves birth control law targeting Rohingya Muslims

Lessons learned from Ireland's vote on gay marriage

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Burma (Myanmar) approves birth control law targeting Rohingya Muslims


Ethnic Rohingya women and children gather to receive a meal in Indonesia on Saturday (AP)
Ethnic Rohingya women and children gather to receive a meal in Indonesia on Saturday (AP)

President Thein Sein of Myanmar (Burma) has signed into law the Population Control Health Care Bill, to require mothers to have their children at least three years apart. Nominally, the purpose of the bill is to "protect women's health," but opponents say that it's designed to target Rohingya Muslims.

The law doesn't provide punishment for parents who do not comply, but it gives local authorities the power to take whatever steps are necessary to implement the law. Human rights activists say that this gives a blank check local police to take harsh measures with Rohingya families.

Rohingya Muslim migrants have lived peacefully in Myanmar (Burma) for generations, but are now being slaughtered and driven from their homes by Buddhists led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu. Some 140,000 have been herded into dirty apartheid-like camps. Thousands of Rohingya have fled Burma. An estimated 2000 Rohingya migrants are have been trapped for over 40 days in crowded boats off the coast in the Bay of Bengal. Thousands more are in boats further south in the Andaman Sea, where they have been trying to reach shore in Thailand, Indonesia or Malaysia. However, officials in those three countries have been pushing the boats back out to sea when they approach shore, although an agreement last week may permit up to 7,000 to be sheltered temporarily.

The new Population Control law was enacted in response to the demands of hard-line Buddhists who have repeatedly warned that Muslims, with their high birthrates, could take over the country of 50 million even though they currently represent less than 10 percent of the population.

However, human rights activists warn that this attitude is racist and anti-Muslim, and that the new law will "exacerbate ethnic and religious divisions and undermine the country's efforts to promote tolerance and diversity." AP and AFP

Burma's government vacillates between repression (stability) and reforms (human rights)

Burma's last two generational crisis wars (1886-91 and 1948-58) were extremely bloody and violent civil wars between ethnic groups. (See "Burma: Growing demonstrations by the '88 Generation' raise fears of new slaughter" from 2007, for a generational history of Burma.)

Any country that goes through a crisis civil war faces the problem, in the decades that follow, of preventing old hatreds to lead to a renewal of that civil war. For that reason, it's fairly common for the military to take control of the government after the civil war ends, and to use military and police power to try to control riots and demonstrations, fearing that they will destabilize the country and lead to a new civil war.

So in 2008, as the 20th anniversary of the 1988 massacre approached, there were massive new demonstrations in Rangoon (Yangon), led by monks and nuns, as well as many ordinary citizens. Burma's military junta ordered thousands of troops into the streets of Rangoon. Hundreds of activists and citizens were shot dead or burned alive in government crematoriums. Thousands of Buddhist monks, who led the protests to begin with, were rounded up and detained. Some were found floating face down in rivers. This repression was done in order to promote "stability."

The result was an enormous international backlash, along with economic sanctions. This caused the pendulum to move away from repression (stability) back towards reforms, including free elections and freedom of expression. The purpose of these reforms is to promote "human rights."

However, the end of repression unleashed a lot of hatred that had been bottled up since the 1950s generational crisis civil war. New protests began appearing in the northern provinces of Kachin and Shan, and earlier this year we reported on fighting between Burma's army and ethnic Chinese in Burma's Kokang Special Region.

Now Burma's government is again moving away from reforms (human rights) and back in the direction of repression (stability) with the new Population Control law. The parliament is consider additional bills relating to monogamy, religious conversion and interfaith marriage. These laws are also being demanded by hardline Buddhists with an anti-Muslim agenda.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this vacillation between repression and reforms never succeeds in bringing peace. As the generations of survivors of the last crisis civil war die off, and the country enters a new generational Crisis era, there is a huge, new bloody civil war. Deutsche Welle and Economist

Lessons learned from Ireland's vote on gay marriage

Ireland's referendum on gay marriage has passed overwhelmingly, despite being bitterly opposed by the Catholic Church. It seems that Irish Catholics can overwhelmingly call themselves Catholics, go to Church every Sunday and still completely ignore the teachings of the Pope. This has been true in the case of contraceptives for years.

The lesson to be learned is that you can't depend on churches, synagogues, mosques or politicians to tell you how people think and behave. Millions of Muslims may pray in mosques where they're taught jihadism, but that doesn't mean that they're all jihadists. Other methods must be used to determine what the populations and different generations of people in a country think, and how they will behave when they're forced to make difficult choices. Irish Times and Religion News Service

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-May-15 World View -- Burma (Myanmar) approves birth control law targeting Rohingya Muslims thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-May-2015) Permanent Link
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23-May-15 World View -- After ISIS terrorist attack, Saudis face conflict between stability and reforms

ISIS claims responsibility for attack on Shia mosque in eastern Saudi Arabia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

ISIS claims responsibility for major terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia


Aftermath of bombing of Shia mosque in al-Qadeeh on Friday (AFP)
Aftermath of bombing of Shia mosque in al-Qadeeh on Friday (AFP)

A suicide bomber entered a Shia mosque in the village of al-Qadeeh (Qatif) in eastern Saudi Arabia on Friday when it was packed with worshippers during Friday prayers. He detonated his vest, killing 21 people and wounding dozens, in the worst terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia since 2003.

The Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) claimed responsibility for the attack in a statement that said it would not rest until all Shias were driven from the Arabian Peninsula.

Saudi Arabia has declared ISIS to be a terrorist organization. When the Saudi branch of ISIS was formed in November, ISIS leader Abu Omar al-Baghdadi, declared war on the country. He did not refer to it as Saudi Arabia, since this is a name derived from the ruling tribe, the al-Saud, whose authority ISIS does not accept. Instead he called it "the land of Haramayn", the land of the two holy places, meaning Mecca and Medina.

In April, Saudi Arabia arrested 93 people suspected of belonging to ISIS, and foiled several plots, according to the interior ministry. Daily Star (Lebanon) and BBC (14-Nov-2014) and BBC (28-Apr)

As ISIS grows, Saudis face conflict between stability and reforms

The new suicide bombings at the Shia mosque in al-Qadeeh once again sharpens the conflict in Saudi Arabia between the conflicting needs for reforms and stability. Saudi officials attempt to modernize the countries with reforms such as giving women additional freedoms and rights, but these reforms bring riots and violence from Salafist activists in the country.

In 1979, there were two major political earthquakes in the Muslim world, with special effect on Saudi Arabia. One of them was Iran's Great Islamic Revolution, which removed from Iran the Shah, who was an ally of both the US and the Saudis, and replaced him with Ayatollah Ruhollah Khomeini, a hardline Shia Muslim who was both anti-American and anti-Saudi. The second was Russia's invasion of Afghanistan, which pitted the Orthodox Christians against the Muslims.

Both of these events stirred strong Salafist activism in Saudi Arabia, and Saudi officials resolved their internal problems by encouraging the Salafist jihadists to travel to Afghanistan to join al-Qaeda to fight the Russians. Osama bin Laden became leader of al-Qaeda at this time. This worked reasonably well while the war was ongoing, but after the war ended, these jihadists returned to Saudi Arabia and demanded austere implementations of Sharia law.

A primary objective of al-Qaeda has always been to repeat Iran's 1979 Great Islamic Revolution in a Sunni Muslim country. Al-Qaeda has attempted, and continues to attempt, to destabilize governments in countries in the Mideast, Asia and North Africa, attempting to spark an internal civil war somewhere that will result in a hardline Sunni Islamic Revolution in that country.

A major shock to the Saudis occurred with the al-Qaeda attack on America on 11-Sep-2001, for which Saudi Arabia was blamed.

This shock was topped on 12-May-2003 by "Saudi Arabia's 9/11," when over a dozen al-Qaeda linked suicide bombers attacked compounds in Saudi Arabia's capital city Riyadh, killing 35 people, wounding hundreds. This attack brought home to the Saudis that jihadist terrorist was an existential threat to Saudi Arabia itself.

Friday's attack by ISIS in al-Qadeeh is the worst terrorist attack in Saudi Arabia since the 2003 attack. For Saudi Arabia's new king, Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud, the attack is a threat to his crown and his country, and heightens the concern about the growing power of ISIS. BBC (Nov 2014) and CNN (Nov 2003)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-May-15 World View -- After ISIS terrorist attack, Saudis face conflict between stability and reforms thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-May-2015) Permanent Link
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22-May-15 World View -- Indonesia and Malaysia back down and accept stranded Rohingya migrants

Iran backs down and allows inspection of aid ship to Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Indonesia and Malaysia back down and accept stranded Rohingya migrants


Aid being brought ashore at a Rohingya camp in Burma (Lowy)
Aid being brought ashore at a Rohingya camp in Burma (Lowy)

International pressures have forced Indonesia and Malaysia to agree to shelter as many as 7,000 migrants on their soil. It's estimated that there are 6,000 to 8,000 migrants in vastly overcrowded boats in the Andaman Sea off the coast of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Officials say that these three countries are preventing them from reaching land. When one of the boats is spotted, the authorities supply food, water and fuel to the hundreds of people on board, and then push the boat back out into the Andaman Sea, sending it on its way. Some migrants have been at sea for weeks.

About half of them are economic migrants from Bangladesh, trying to reach Malaysia, where it's thought that there's a need for day laborers.

The other half are Rohingya Muslim migrants who have lived peacefully in Myanmar (Burma) for generations, but are now being slaughtered and driven from their homes by Buddhists led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is building into an extremely bloody and genocidal generational crisis war, where huge numbers of both Buddhists and Muslims will be killed before it ends.

Neither Indonesia and Malaysia have wanted to allow the migrants to land on their soil. They offered "humanitarian aid" to some of the boats approaching land by boarding the ship, providing food, water and fuel, and then towing the boat back out into the midst of the Andaman.

The boats are extremely filthy and crowded, and there have been numerous deaths in months of being trapped out in the sea, facing illness and starvation. Human rights advocates around the world have been sharply criticizing the governments of Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia for allowing the situation to continue.

Under the new agreement, Indonesia and Malaysia will allow up to 7,000 migrants to land, where they will be sheltered for up to a year.

Thailand has refused to join in this agreement, and will treat any migrants as illegal, subject to deportation.

Myanmar (Burma) does not recognize Rohingyas as Thai citizens, even though they've lived there for generations. Myanmar is considered by many to be the core problem that created the migrant crisis. According to the US State Dept:

"What needs to change here is that the Rohingya need to feel welcome in the country of their birth, in the country of their parents’ birth, of their grandparents’ birth. They need to be treated as citizens with dignity and human rights."

However, Burma will not even recognize the name "Rohingya," instead calling them "Bangladeshis." According to a Burmese official:

"If we recognize the name, then they will think they are citizens of Myanmar ... Myanmar cannot take all the blame for these people who are now at sea."

Activists are also demanding that the "wealthy countries," including the United States, take in their share of the migrants stuck at sea. However, Australia is refusing to take any.

The government of the Philippines is saying that it's willing to take in Rohingya migrants. According to one official, "Let us not fall short of providing humanitarian relief and assistance that is asked of us, as we pride ourselves to be a compassionate and hospitable people. Channel News Asia and Time and Al-Jazeera and Lowy Interpreter (Australia)

Iran backs down and allows inspection of aid ship to Yemen

As we reported two days ago, Iran and Saudi Arabia were headed for a military confrontation, as an Iranian cargo ship with 2,500 tons of "humanitarian aid," along with hundreds of passengers, was going to attempt to dock at a port in Yemen. The cargo ship was accompanied by two Iranian warships. Saudi Arabia threatened a military confrontation unless the contents of the cargo ship submitted to inspection.

Iran announced on Thursday that it would dock the ship in Djibouti, where it would be inspected by the international coalition led by Saudi Arabia, defusing the crisis.

In addition, Iran announced that its cargo plane carrying humanitarian aid to Yemen would land in Djibouti for inspection. Press TV (Tehran) and AP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-May-15 World View -- Indonesia and Malaysia back down and accept stranded Rohingya migrants thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-May-2015) Permanent Link
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21-May-15 World View -- China's military confronts US surveillance plane in South China Sea

Claims of ISIS activities in Pakistan doubted by officials

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China's military confronts US surveillance plane in South China Sea


P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane (FlightGlobal)
P-8A Poseidon surveillance plane (FlightGlobal)

In a serious new escalation of tensions between China and the United States in the South China Sea, China's navy on Wednesday demanded on eight occasions that an American surveillance plane in the South China Sea leave the area immediately. The surveillance plane was swooping over man-made islands that the Chinese military has created with the apparent intention of building military bases in international waters.

The surveillance mission was top secret, but the confrontation was revealed because a CNN reporter had been granted permission to join in the surveillance flight.

The surveillance plan was the US Navy's new Boeing P-8A Poseidon anti-submarine patrol aircraft. According to the Navy, the new aircraft "will transform the way the service performs its anti-submarine warfare (ASW), anti-surface warfare, intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance missions for broad area, maritime and littoral operations.

Last year, a Chinese jet fighter made several passes as close as 30 feet to a U.S. surveillance plane in international waters. The incident was reminiscent of an April 2001 encounter, when a Chinese F-8 interceptor smashed into a U.S. surveillance aircraft in international waters in the South China Sea. The Chinese aircraft crashed into the sea, and its crew was killed. The U.S. plane made an emergency landing on China's Hainan Island, and its 24 crew members were imprisoned for 10 days.

As we wrote last week, the US has has announced that the US military will use its aircraft and Navy ships to directly confront China in the South China Sea. The US is conducting its surveillance flights over international waters, but China is claiming that it has sovereignty over the entire South China Sea, meaning that regions that have been international waters for centuries are now being claimed as Chinese sovereign waters.

As I wrote last week, what we're seeing is the kind of tit-for-tat escalation that leads to full scale war during a generational Crisis era, when nationalism and xenophobia are at their highest. At some point, as actions escalate, one side or the other will, by miscalculation, by accident or by intention, take a military action that requires a response, and then things can spiral quickly out of control.

The Chinese themselves certainly understand that. In fact, one of the Chinese warnings to the US surveillance craft on Wednesday was:

"This is the Chinese navy ... This is the Chinese navy ... Please go away ... to avoid misunderstanding."

One or two "misunderstandings" could lead to full-scale war. CNN and FlightGlobal

Claims of ISIS activities in Pakistan doubted by officials

On May 13, in a suburb of Karachi, the huge port city in the south of Pakistan, terrorists attacked a bus carrying Shias of the Ismaili ethnic group. According to the police report, “The gunmen stopped the bus and first fired at it from outside. Then they entered inside the bus and opened fire indiscriminately. After that they checked to see if anyone was left uninjured.” 45 Ismailis were killed, and 24 injured.

The terrorists left behind leaflets written in English accusing Shias of "barbaric atrocities," and warning "Advent of the Islamic State!"

Jundullah, a splinter group of Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP - Pakistan Taliban) that has supposedly switch allegiance to ISIS , has claimed responsibility for the attack. However, Pakistan officials are raising several doubts about the claim.

Jundullah has claimed responsibility in the past for a number of terrorist activities, and in its statements has vowed to exterminate all Shia Muslims. However, some of these claims of responsibility have turned out to be false. Furthermore, this Jundullah organization claiming responsibility for the Karachi attack is clearly a different organization than the previous Jundullah of Sunni militants of Iranian Baloch descent involved in past attacks in Iran’s Seistan-Balochistan province.

Finally, this Jundullah's relation with ISIS is also called into question. Any individual or organization in the world can announce that it's affiliated with ISIS, and this has led to exaggerated claims that "ISIS is now in 100 countries around the world." But that doesn't mean that Jundullah or any of these organization has any actual connection with ISIS, and Pakistani officials are claiming that investigations have uncovered "no evidence of any money trail of any kind" showing a connect between ISIS and any Pakistan terrorist organization.

However, none of that is any comfort to the family and friends of the people who were killed in Karachi on May 13. In fact, what it seems to mean is that Pakistan security forces have no idea who committed the May 13 terror attack, which is not good news when Pakistan seems increasingly victimized by the very terrorist organizations that its intelligence services have funded in the past. The News (Pakistan) and South Asia Terrorism Portal (India) and Reuters and Pakistan Today

Iran's Supreme Leader rules out any nuclear inspections

As the June 30 deadline approaches for America and the West to reach a nuclear deal with Iran, Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei seems to be confident that he can force the US to make any concession he wants, because the US is so anxious to get this deal.

On Wednesday, Khamenei announced that he will not permit any inspections of Iran's military centers, or to talk with nuclear scientists:

"As said before, no permission will be given for inspections of any military centers and for talks with the nuclear scientists and other sensitive fields of study and intrusion into their privacy. ...

The flagrant and shameless enemy expects us to allow them to talk to our scientists and researchers about a fundamental, indigenous advancement; however, there will absolutely be no such access... I will not allow foreigners to come in and interrogate the dear and distinguished scientists and sons of this nation."

The comments were broadcast live on state TV. If the U.N. International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) inspectors are not given access to Iran's scientists and military centers, Iran will be able to develop nuclear weapons technology without being detected. President Obama has guaranteed that deep, thorough IAEA inspections will be part of any nuclear deal. Reuters and AEI Iran Tracker

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 21-May-15 World View -- China's military confronts US surveillance plane in South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (21-May-2015) Permanent Link
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20-May-15 World View -- Iranian, American, Saudi military head for confrontation off Yemen

Report: Saudi Arabia seeking nuclear weapons from Pakistan

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Iranian, American, Saudi military head for confrontation off Yemen


Iran Shahed (marinetraffic.com)
Iran Shahed (marinetraffic.com)

The Iranian ship Iran Shahed ("Iran Rescue"), which Iran says is bringing humanitarian aid, is set to arrive at Yemen's port of Al-Hudaydah on Thursday. According to Iran, the ship will unload 2,500 tons of "humanitarian aid," accompanied by hundreds of passengers described as "medical relief workers." It's suspected that at least part of the shipment are weapons and ground troops from Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps (IRGC). The cargo ship is accompanied by two Iranian warships, the "Vosper" and "Bandar Abbas."

The United States, Saudi Arabia and Egypt have imposed a sea and air blockade on Yemen, and have demanded that the ship stop off at Djibouti for inspection. The Iranians have refused to do so, and are threatening a military confrontation if an attempt is made to prevent the cargo ship from docking in Yemen.

Readers may recall that this is the same stunt that Russia used in conjunction with its invasion of Ukraine. Russia sent in one convoy after another, each one with hundreds of large trucks. The Russians claim that they contained only humanitarian aid, but many believe that they also carried weapons and soldiers.

American warships have been tracking the Iranian ships. However, it's thought that President Obama would back off on any confrontation with Iran, just as he did when he flip-flopped over the "red line" he had set over Syria's use of chemical weapons.

If the Iranian cargo ship reaches port, then it will set a precedent for future ship convoys delivering "humanitarian aid" to Yemen.

However, the blockade is also being enforced by Saudi Arabia and Egypt, whose governments are presumably less shy than Obama's. So once again, we're seeing a game of chicken being played out in the Mideast. Either Saudi Arabia will back down, or Iran will back down, or there will be a confrontation on Thursday. Memri and Debka and NBC News

In repeat of Mosul disaster, Iraqi army abandoned US weapons in Ramadi

As militias from the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) approached Mosul last year, the soldiers in the Iraq army dropped their weapons and fled for their lives, leaving behind large storehouses of weapons that had been supplied by the United States.

When Iraq army soldiers fled for their lives last week as the ISIS militias approached Ramadi, they once again left behind storehouses of US-supplied weapons, according to Pentagon spokesman Steve Warren.

Fortunately, the haul was smaller this time, according to Warren. He estimated that a half dozen tanks were abandoned, a similar number of artillery pieces, a larger number of armored personnel carriers and about 100 wheeled vehicles like Humvees. He said some of the vehicles were in working condition; others were not because they had not been moved for months. AP

Report: Saudi Arabia seeking nuclear weapons from Pakistan

Reports citing unnamed senior American officials say that the Saudis have "taken the 'strategic decision' to acquire 'off-the-shelf' atomic weapons from Pakistan."

The Saudis are refusing to comment on the report, but in a March statement on the same subject, Saudi ambassador Adel Al-Jubeir said:

"But the kingdom of Saudi Arabia will take whatever measures are necessary in order to protect its security. There are two things over which we do not negotiate: our faith and our security."

If true, this would certainly not be an unexpected turn of events. As we wrote last week ( "15-May-15 World View -- Obama repudiates the Carter doctrine at bizarre GCC meeting"), the United States has been the guarantor of Saudi security for decades. When ambassador Al-Jubeir made that statement in March about "security," he was specifically alluding to the American guarantee. Last week's meeting of the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) at Camp David, hosted by President Obama, was a complete disaster for Saudi-American relations as Obama, viewed by Mideast leaders as having no clue what's going on, lectured the GCC leaders who came that nothing would stop him from going ahead with nuclear deal with Iran, making any concession he had to make to do so, and the GCC leaders could like it or lump it.

The Saudis perceive that Obama has acquiesced to permitting Iran to develop a nuclear weapon, and the Saudis consider that to be an existential threat to their Kingdom. The logic of the situation actually requires the Saudis to seek nuclear technology from Pakistan, since not doing so would risk Saudi security.

So I believe we can say with certainty that the Saudis are at least exploring the purchase of nuclear technology from Pakistan, but it is unlikely that a final decision has yet been made.

This is a good time to remind readers what I've been saying for ten years, that Generational Dynamics predicts that in the coming Clash of Civilizations world war, China, Pakistan and the Sunni Arab countries will be enemies of the West, including the U.S., India, Russia and Iran. The prediction that Iran would be our ally seemed fantastical when I first wrote about it almost ten years ago, but in the last two years we've seen it coming true, to my astonishment as well as everyone else's. CNN and BBC

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 20-May-15 World View -- Iranian, American, Saudi military head for confrontation off Yemen thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (20-May-2015) Permanent Link
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19-May-15 World View -- European Union approves military action against migrant smugglers

ISIS seizure of Ramadi Iraq raises concerns of Sunni-Shia war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

ISIS seizure of Ramadi Iraq raises concerns of Sunni-Shia war


Shia pilgrims carry a symbolic coffin in a funeral commemoration in Baghdad last week (AP)
Shia pilgrims carry a symbolic coffin in a funeral commemoration in Baghdad last week (AP)

As we reported yesterday, the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) defied the predictions of both the American and Iraqi governments and seized the city of Ramadi, after soldiers in the Iraqi army dropped their weapons and fled for their lives. ISIS is now in control of 80% of Anbar Province, the heart of the minority Sunni population in Iraq.

In the aftermath, the Iran-backed Shia government in Baghdad has ordered Iraq's Iran-trained Shia militias, also called Hashid Shaabi or "popular mobilization units," to deploy to Ramadi and recapture it from ISIS.

When Shia militias were deployed last year to recapture Tikrit from ISIS, they did so, but committed atrocities against the Sunni population, looting and destroying their homes. Some 400,000 people fled their homes, as I described, and Tikrit is now a ghost town.

Now the Shia militias are entering Ramadi, and Sunni militias in the region are not going to tolerate the same kinds of atrocities as happened in Tikrit.

I've heard several analysts on Monday predict or raise concerns about a major Sunni-Shia bloodbath as Ramadi is being recaptured.

Nothing like this will happen. There may be some clashes between Sunni and Shia militias, but a Sunni-Shia bloodbath is completely impossible.

Iraq's last generational crisis war was the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. Something like 1.5 million people were killed in that extremely bloody war, but it was not a war between Sunnis and Shias. During that war, the Sunnis and Shias in Iraq were united in fighting against the Persians in Iran. In other words, it was an ethnic war, Arabs versus Persians. (There was also a third ethnic group, the Kurds.)

So now Iraq is in a generational Awakening era, one generation past the Iran/Iraq war. There are millions of survivors of the Iran/Iraq war who remember its horrors and have no intention of letting anything like it happen again. In particular, with Sunni and Shia Arabs having fought shoulder-to-shoulder against the Persians, they have no intention now of having a bloodbath war with each other, just because their children are doing some looting and committing some atrocities. (For more information, see my lengthy 2007 analysis of the Iraq war: "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq.")

Even without resorting to generational theory, this argument is proven by the experience in Tikrit. When the Shia militias started committing atrocities in Tikrit, why did 400,000 Sunnis leave their homes and flee for their lives? Why didn't they fight back against the Shia militias to save their homes? Why didn't they start a full-scale Sunni-Shia bloodbath in Tikrit?

The answer is because the survivors of the Iran/Iraq war want nothing to do with those horrors again, so there was no Sunni-Shia bloodbath in Tikrit. And for the same reason, there will be no Sunni-Shia bloodbath in Ramadi. USA Today and Reuters

European Union approves military action against migrant smugglers

The European Union on Monday approved a multi-phase military operation to defeat human smugglers who are trafficking migrants from Libya to Europe. Smugglers have been charging migrants thousands of dollars each to make the trip, and there's no guarantee of reaching Europe or even of surviving.

The initial phase, to begin in June, will be to use spy planes for intelligence-gathering and surveillance, with the particular objective of finding and identifying the smugglers' boats.

Once the boats are identified, naval forces could stop the boats in the Mediterranean and force them to return to Libya. Other options could include removing the migrants, and then destroying the boats.

Also approved was a "boots on the ground" option, where special forces would be sent to Libya to hunt the people-smuggling gangs, and stop the problem at its source. The special forces would also destroy smugglers' boats in port.

However, anything that requires military action on Libyan soil would presumably require either approval by the United Nations Security Council or approval from one or both of the two competing Libyan governments. Furthermore, several EU countries, including Ireland, Sweden and Austria, are opposed to any military involvement in the region.

No one credibly believes that any of these proposals would stop the flow of migrants to Europe, or even seriously reduce its size. The migrants are generally completely desperate, while the smugglers stand to make millions of dollars. And so both the migrants and the smugglers would quickly find a way to circumvent any steps that the EU takes.

So there would still be thousands of migrants arriving in Europe. Last week, the European Commission in Brussels approved a plan to distribute newly-arrived migrants to each country, with a quota set by the size and wealth of the country. Under European treaties, Britain and Ireland are able to opt out of any such proposal. Britain has already said it will do so, and Ireland has three months to decide.

This is only one of the two major migration crises that have been in the news lately. (See "16-May-15 World View -- Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia".)

In the Asian crisis, thousands of migrants and refugees from Burma and Bangladesh are trying to migrate to Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia. In those cases, there are already robust military operations in place to prevent the migrants from reaching land. However, those military operations don't seem to be stopping the flow of migrants. If that lesson is applied to the situation in Europe, military operations won't stop the flow of migrants there either. Irish Times and Daily Mail (London)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 19-May-15 World View -- European Union approves military action against migrant smugglers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (19-May-2015) Permanent Link
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18-May-15 World View -- Iraq's Shia militias ordered to fight ISIS after major loss in Ramadi

Memories of atrocities committed by Shia militias in Tikrit

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

ISIS in major victory seizes Iraq city of Ramadi


An Iraqi soldier at a base outside Ramadi on May 8th (AFP)
An Iraqi soldier at a base outside Ramadi on May 8th (AFP)

In a major setback for Iraq, the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) has overrun Iraq's city of Ramadi. Ramadi is the capital of Anbar, Iraq's largest province. This victory will permit ISIS to threaten Baiji, Iraq’s largest oil refinery, as well as the villages in the suburbs around Baghdad, and Baghdad itself. Furthermore, weapons stores and other assets in Ramadi were not destroyed, and are available to ISIS.

People with long memories may recall the phrase "Anbar Awakening." The US Army worked with Sunni villages across Anbar province, and triggered by means of President Bush's troop "surge" in 2007, the Sunni militias ejected Al-Qaeda in Iraq, effectively ending the Iraq war. (See "Iraqi Sunnis are turning against al-Qaeda in Iraq" from 2007.)

When young jihadists from around the world started traveling to Syria to fight Syria's genocidal president Bashar al-Assad, ISIS was formed in Syria. After the 2011 withdrawal of American forces from Iraq, the Iran-backed Shia government in Baghdad treated the Sunnis in Anbar province brutally, allowing ISIS to infiltrate much of Anbar. This included the capture of the city of Mosul, where the Iraqi army dropped their weapons and fled for their lives as ISIS militias approached. Some analysts are blaming President Obama for this outcome, since he did not negotiate keeping some American troops remaining in Iraq, and allowed the victory of the Anbar Awakening to turn to defeat. Other analysts are blaming President Bush for this outcome, because the Iraq army was disbanded after its defeat in 2003.

The BBC and Al-Jazeera have been showing video of Ramadi on Friday, when the Iraq army once again could be seen fleeing for their lives. Al Jazeera and BBC

Ominously, the Iraq government is ordering Shia militias into Ramadi

Iraq's government has ordered the mobilization of Shia militias in Ramadi, in an attempt to recover the city from ISIS. The order is ominous because of atrocities committed by Shia militias in the recapture of the city of Tikrit. Shia militias are known locally as "popular mobilization units."

After ISIS seized the city of Tikrit in June 2014, the Baghdad government ordered the Shia militias to enter the city. They did so, and took control of Tikrit back from ISIS. But some 400,000 people fled their homes in Tikrit because the Shia militias were committing atrocities targeting the Sunni population. Today, two months after the defeat of ISIS, Tikrit is a ghost town. Shia militia commanders are denying that the atrocities ever occurred, and are asking the former Sunni residents of Tikrit to return to their former homes. But many homes are completely looted and destroyed, and only a tiny fraction of former residents are returning.

Now the Baghdad government has ordered Shia militias to go into Anbar province to recapture Ramadi from ISIS. It's feared that the atrocities of Tikrit will be repeated in Ramadi. UPI and AP (4-May) and Daily Mail (5-Mar)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 18-May-15 World View -- Iraq's Shia militias ordered to fight ISIS after major loss in Ramadi thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (18-May-2015) Permanent Link
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17-May-15 World View -- Outrage grows over sting video of Lebanon MP planning terrorism

Stock market bubble accelerates explosion as economy falters

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Outrage grows over sting video of Lebanon MP planning terrorism


Screen grab of sting video showing Michel Samaha's admission of terrorist plans
Screen grab of sting video showing Michel Samaha's admission of terrorist plans

Lebanon's people were shocked on Thursday evening when TV channels broadcast a video of a sting operation that trapped a Lebanon former MP (Member of Parliament) importing explosives from Bashar al-Assad's regime in Syria with the intention of killing Lebanon's MPs and religious figures who were politically opposed to Iran-backed Hezbollah terrorism and support for Bashar al-Assad's war.

In 2012, undercover police informant Milad Kfoury secretly videotaped conversations with pro-Hezbollah MP Michel Samaha. In those conversations, Samaha said "you can get rid of" lawmakers and other political opponents. In the third videotape, Samaha actually delivers the bomb-making explosives to Kfoury, and he assures Kfoury that the only two people who know about this are Bashar al-Assad and his security chief Ali Mamlouk.

Samaha has been under arrest since August 2012 over allegations that he and Mamlouk planned to assassinate a string of political and religious figures in Lebanon. Samaha confessed after he learned of the video, but the video was not shown to the public until Thursday.

The Samaha conviction is reminding people of the assassination of Rafiq Hariri ten years ago. (See "Massive Beirut explosion killing Rafiq Hariri puts Lebanon into state of shock" from 2005.) The outrage from the Hariri assassination was so great that Syrian troops who had been occupying Lebanon were forced to leave the country. Since then, there have numerous assassinations by bomb and gunfire, allegedly by Hezbollah and Syria, to eliminate Syria's political opponents and to torpedo any investigates that might show al-Assad and Hezbollah complicity in the Hariri assassination.

Lebanon's people are well aware of this, and so shock turned to anger when it was learned that Samaha received a light sentence, 4-1/2 years, and that because of time served, and because a Lebanese judicial year is equal to nine months, he'll be released in December of this year. Anti-Hezbollah politicians have condemned the light sentence, saying that it would effectively "legalize assassination and bombings." However, a pro-Hezbollah MP defended the light sentence, characterizing objections to it as "an unprecedented assault on the judiciary and on justice."

The Hariri assassination shocked and angered Lebanon enough to force major changes. It remains to be seen what long-term effect the conviction of Samaha will have. Daily Star (Lebanon) and Daily Star and Daily Star

Stock market bubble accelerates explosion as economy falters


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.47 on May 15 (WSJ)
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 21.47 on May 15 (WSJ)

It's been only three weeks since I reported that the S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio (stock valuation index) was at an astronomically high 20.98, indicating a huge stock market bubble. It was at 18 a year ago, and in the last three weeks it's shot up to 21.47, the Wall Street Journal on Friday, May 15.

At the same time, numerous economic indicators -- manufacturing activity, consumer confidence, retail sales, industrial production and GDP -- are all much softer tham mainstream economists were predicting. When those indicators are combined with poor economic performance in Europe, Japan and China, and a worldwide deflationary trend, there is plenty of evidence of a likely global economic slowdown.

People frequently ask me whether Generational Dynamics can predict when the stock market bubble is going to burst, and a panic will occur. That cannot be predicted and, if it could, I would be rich. In fact, economists still don't even know for sure what triggered the panic and stock market crash of 1929, or why it didn't happen earlier or later.

During the 2004-2007 time frame, it was obvious that there was a real estate bubble, and I begged a number of people not to buy homes, generally to no avail. Now I beg people to stay out of the stock market, with equal lack of success. It's heartbreaking to me to see this happen.

The P/E index is well over 21 and is surging, indicating a rapidly growing stock market bubble. The historical average is 14, and as recently as 1982 it was around 6. It is an absolute guarantee that it will fall to around 5-6 again, pushing the Dow Jones Industrial Average to below 3000, far below the current index value of over 18,000.

Anything might trigger a stock market panic. It might be something as simple as a speech, or it might be an exogenous event, such as a major international crisis. With almost the entire Mideast in flames, with Russia invading and annexing pieces of Ukraine, with China invading and annexing pieces of the South China Sea, something major could occur at any time.

So, as I have in the past, I strongly urge readers to keep their assets in cash. In the deflationary environment of today, that's the best bet. Seeking Alpha and Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 17-May-15 World View -- Outrage grows over sting video of Lebanon MP planning terrorism thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (17-May-2015) Permanent Link
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16-May-15 World View -- Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia

EU proposes refugee shelters in Niger to house illegal migrants headed for Europe

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia


Rohingya migrants arriving in Indonesia on Friday (AP)
Rohingya migrants arriving in Indonesia on Friday (AP)

Nearly 800 migrants from Myanmar (Burma) and Bangladesh were rescued by local fishermen when their boat sank off the eastern coast of Indonesia. The migrants were brought to shore, given food and water, and placed in a warehouse.

Those were the lucky ones. It's estimated that there are 6,000 to 8,000 migrants in vastly overcrowded boats in the Andaman Sea off the coast of Thailand, Malaysia and Indonesia. Officials that these three countries are preventing them from reaching land. When one of the boats is spotted, the authorities supply food, water and fuel to the hundreds of people on board, and then push the boat back out into the Andaman Sea, sending it on its way. Some migrants have been at sea for weeks.

According to the U.N. High Commissioner for Human Rights Zeid Ra’ad Al Hussein:

"I am appalled at reports that Thailand, Indonesia and Malaysia have been pushing boats full of vulnerable migrants back out to sea, which will inevitably lead to many avoidable deaths. The focus should be on saving lives, not further endangering them."

However, a government official in Malaysia said:

"What do you expect us to do? We have been very nice to the people who broke into our border. We have treated them humanely but they cannot be flooding our shores like this."

According to Thailand's prime minister Prayuth Chan-ocha:

"If we take them all in, then anyone who wants to come will come freely. I am asking if Thailand will be able to take care of them all. Where will the budget come from? No one wants them. Everyone wants a transit country like us to take responsibility. Is it fair?"

AP and VOA

Southeast Asian nations face a flood of migrants

This situation has gained international attention ever since Rohingya 'death camps' and 'slave camps' were found in southern Thailand, as I reported last week.

As I described in that article, Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar (Burma) who had lived there for generations are being slaughtered and driven from their homes by Buddhists led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu. The Rohingyas, described by the United Nations as "the most persecuted ethnic group in the world," are not even recognized as Rohingyas by Burma's government, who refer to them as Bangladeshis. Because of the Buddhist violence, they've been fleeing Burma into the Bay of Bengal in small boats, heading south and hoping to land in Thailand, Indonesia or Malaysia.

There are about 1.3 million Rohingya in Burma, and in the last three years more than 120,000 of them have boarded ships to flee to other countries. They are joined by Bangladeshis from Bangladesh who are also fleeing to the south because of poverty, hoping to find work.

The discovery of the death camps and slave camps has caused Thai officials to announce that they will criminally prosecute for illegal entry any refugees who land on Thai soil. According to a spokesman for Thai's military junta:

"We have given the navy a clear policy that those who plan to land on the Thai coast are welcome to do so and we will give them humanitarian assistance. But we will treat them in accordance with our laws about illegal entry into the country."

As a result, thousands of these migrants are scooped up by human traffickers who charge thousands of dollars to take them further south, often demanding that they call their families to secure payment. Stories of rape of women and children, starvation and disease are common, as well as violent fights when water and food run out. But because of the crackdown on human trafficking in the past few weeks, many of the traffickers are just setting the boats adrift. When one of the boats arrives on the shore of one of the southeast Asian nations, the migrants are given food and water, and the boats are towed back out to sea.

According to one lawyer, countries towing boats back to see are probably in breach of international law:

"These boats carrying overcrowded refugees and migrants are typically rickety wooden trawlers and hardly seaworthy. Turning or towing these boats away is as good as signing their death warrant as the occupants are normally starving, dehydrated, sickly and in dire need of immediate assistance."

Attention is turning now to the suspected traffickers who have a "systemic kidnapping scheme" targeting Rohingya in Burma, who would then be held for ransom in Thailand. NPR and Bloomberg

U.S. under pressure to help Rohingya and Bangladeshi migrants

Human rights groups and some in Congress are demanding that the U.S. do something to help solve the migrant crisis in southeast Asia.

Democratic Representative Joe Crowley, "These men, women, children and infants are refugees fleeing well-founded fear of persecution and their deaths may well constitute a mass atrocity in the heart of ASEAN." (ASEAN = Association of Southeast Asian Nations.) He called on the US to provide humanitarian assistance to the migrants.

However, State Dept. spokesman Jeff Rathke said, "This is a regional issue. It needs a regional solution in short order." AP

EU proposes refugee shelters in Niger to house illegal migrants headed for Europe

The European Union and Niger are considering a plan to build a string of refugee shelters in Niger to dissuade illegal African migrants from trying to reach Europe, and instead offer local alternatives.

According to Niger's president Mahamadou Issoufou, this will "attack the problem at its root":

"These problems of great migrations are much like those of the rural exodus. People are leaving the countryside to the cities driven by poverty, the same way people leave poor countries to go to rich countries, simply because their situation is untenable."

1,800 people have died in shipwrecks in the Mediterranean since the beginning of this year. Earlier this week, lawmakers in Niger adopted a law calling for prison sentences of up to 30 years for smugglers of illegal immigrants in a bid to stem the flow of migrants across Africa into Europe. Arab News/AFP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 16-May-15 World View -- Thousands of Bangladeshi and Burma Rohingya migrants stranded at sea in southeast Asia thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (16-May-2015) Permanent Link
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15-May-15 World View -- Obama repudiates the Carter doctrine at bizarre GCC meeting

Iran fires at Singapore-flagged ship in Persian Gulf

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Iran attempts to seize Singapore-flagged ship in Persian Gulf


The Alpine Eternity. (Marinetraffic.com)
The Alpine Eternity. (Marinetraffic.com)

In what is apparently going to be a repeating pattern, Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) on Thursday launched five patrol boats and fired at a commercial ship in international waters passing through the Persian Gulf, in an apparent attempt to either disable it or to seize it and force it into an Iranian port.

On April 24, four IRGCN patrol boats surrounded the Maersk Kensington, a US-flagged cargo vessel, and harassed it for a while before letting it go.

On April 28, IRGCN patrol boats fired shots at a commercial cargo vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and then forcibly boarded the ship and directed it to an Iranian port. The vessel was the Maersk Tigris, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship. The Tigris and its crew were forcibly held for several days before they were released.

In the new incident, it appears that Iran was trying to repeat the April 28 incident. The intended forcible seizure was of the Alpine Eternity, a Singapore-flagged ship whose owners Iran claims owe money to Iran.

The first volley of shots, probably from machine guns, were across the bow. At that point, the vessel called the United Arab Emirates (UAE) for help, and turned toward UAE waters. The UAE sent three of its coast guard boats out. The IRGCN boats pursued and fired additional shots, apparently hitting the Alpine Eternity but not disabling it. Once it entered UAE waters, the IRGCN boats broke off. CNN and The National (UAE)

Obama concludes bizarre meeting with GCC at Camp David

As President Barack Obama and Secretary of State John Kerry continue to have one embarrassing foreign policy humiliation after another, it's very hard to understand why Obama seems completely immune from learning any lessons and acting more intelligently.

The Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) is an organization with six member on the Arabian Peninsula: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, Saudi Arabia, Oman, and United Arab Emirates (UAE). GCC members have been expressing increasing alarm that Obama seems to be ready to concede anything and everything to Iran, putting GCC members at risk.

According to Marwan Bishara, Al-Jazeera's senior political analyst, Gulf leaders know that if they're being invited to Camp David, then they're going to be either squeezed or humiliated, "as what happened with the Palestinians in 2000." He said that Gulf leaders have no respect for Obama for a number of reasons:

Bishara didn't mention -- but other analysts have -- that there is a generational issue. Obama is a Gen-Xer who considers himself to be the smartest person in the room, no matter who else is in the room, and who treats anyone who disagrees with him with extreme contempt.

The news all week was asking the question whether Saudi Arabia's new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud was "snubbing" Obama by not coming. Well, of course he was. Salman and other Gulf leaders are in their 70s, and consider Obama to be a kid who has no clue what's going on in the Mideast -- an appraisal that I would agree with. So of course these older leaders are not going to want to come to Camp David to be ordered around and humiliated by Obama.

The GCC meeting was described as a negotiation, but Bishara pointed out that no one believed it was a negotiation. It was clear that Obama was going to tell them that the nuclear deal with Iran was going ahead, and they should just get used to it. No wonder they didn't want to come to Camp David. Saudi Gazette

The Truman Doctrine and the Carter Doctrine

The GCC leaders knew in advance that the Camp David meeting was a "take it or leave it" announcement by Obama, with no negotiating. But if there HAD been negotiating, then what the Gulf leaders wanted was a reaffirmation of Jimmy Carter's Carter Doctrine.

I've written many times about the Harry Truman's Truman Doctrine of 1947, which made America policeman of the world. The doctrine is highly controversial today, but its justification is that it's better to have a small military action to stop an ongoing crime than to let it slide and end up having an enormous conflict like World War II. Every president since WW II has followed the Truman Doctrine, up to and including George Bush. Barack Obama is the first president to repudiate the Truman Doctrine, essentially leaving the world without a policeman.

In his State of the Union address on January 23, 1980, President Jimmy Carter announced what has been called the Carter Doctrine. It was essentially an application of the Truman Doctrine to two specific regions: the Persian Gulf and Afghanistan. Here are some excerpts:

"This last few months has not been an easy time for any of us. As we meet tonight, it has never been more clear that the state of our Union depends on the state of the world. And tonight, as throughout our own generation, freedom and peace in the world depend on the state of our Union. ...

At this time in Iran, 50 Americans are still held captive, innocent victims of terrorism and anarchy. Also at this moment, massive Soviet troops are attempting to subjugate the fiercely independent and deeply religious people of Afghanistan. These two acts—one of international terrorism and one of military aggression-present a serious challenge to the United States of America and indeed to all the nations of the world. Together, we will meet these threats to peace. ...

In response to the abhorrent act in Iran, our Nation has never been aroused and unified so greatly in peacetime. Our position is clear. The United States will not yield to blackmail. ...

We continue to pursue these specific goals: first, to protect the present and long-range interests of the United States; secondly, to preserve the lives of the American hostages and to secure, as quickly as possible, their safe release, if possible, to avoid bloodshed which might further endanger the lives of our fellow citizens; to enlist the help of other nations in condemning this act of violence, which is shocking and violates the moral and the legal standards of a civilized world; and also to convince and to persuade the Iranian leaders that the real danger to their nation lies in the north, in the Soviet Union and from the Soviet troops now in Afghanistan, and that the unwarranted Iranian quarrel with the United States hampers their response to this far greater danger to them. ...

This situation demands careful thought, steady nerves, and resolute action, not only for this year but for many years to come. It demands collective efforts to meet this new threat to security in the Persian Gulf and in Southwest Asia. It demands the participation of all those who rely on oil from the Middle East and who are concerned with global peace and stability. And it demands consultation and close cooperation with countries in the area which might be threatened. ...

Let our position be absolutely clear: An attempt by any outside force to gain control of the Persian Gulf region will be regarded as an assault on the vital interests of the United States of America, and such an assault will be repelled by any means necessary, including military force."

That's what the GCC leaders would have liked Obama to reaffirm. Instead, at the conclusion of Thursday's meeting, he said the following:

"In the event of such aggression or the threat of such aggression, the United States stands ready to work with our GCC partners to determine urgently what action may be appropriate, using the means at our collective disposal, including the potential use of military force, for the defense of our GCC partners."

It's pretty clear that Obama has repudiated the Carter Doctrine, as well as the Truman Doctrine.

It's probably worthwhile mentioning that even if Obama had reaffirmed the Carter Doctrine, he would probably not have been believed, after his repeated irrational behavior in Mideast policy, especially his flip-flop on his chemical weapons "red line" in Syria, allowing the Syrian regime to use chemical weapons with impunity, which it continues to do to this day. Carter's State of the Union address, 1/23/1980 and Maxwell AF Base (1983) and Al Arabiya (Riyadh)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 15-May-15 World View -- Obama repudiates the Carter doctrine at bizarre GCC meeting thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (15-May-2015) Permanent Link
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14-May-15 World View -- US escalates tensions with plans for patrols, aircraft in South China Sea

Nusra Front vows to eradicate ISIS in Qalamoun on Syria/Lebanon border

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Nusra Front vows to eradicate ISIS in Qalamoun on Syria/Lebanon border


The Syrian border town of Assal al-Ward, in the Qalamoun region. (AP)
The Syrian border town of Assal al-Ward, in the Qalamoun region. (AP)

Qalamoun, a mountainous region of Syria that is on the border with Lebanon, is becoming the site for a fierce fight between two Sunni jihadist militias, the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) versus al-Qaeda-linked al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra). In the past, al-Nusra had avoided clashes with ISIS along the Lebanon border because the two groups were "the advocates of the same ideology" and because the two groups had to cooperate to fight against the Iran-backed Lebanon Shia terrorist group Hezbollah. However, according to an al-Nusra statement, ISIS has kidnapped one al-Nusra group, tortured them by beating them with rifles, and threatened to behead them. That triggered the current fighting, and a vow by al-Nusra to eradicate ISIS from Qalamoun.

This is presumably good news for Hezbollah, which is involved in a fierce battle in Qalamoun against both al-Nusra and ISIS, to prevent these militias from crossing the border into Lebanon. Hezbollah is claiming significant victories in this clash, but some reports indicate that Hezbollah has suffered significant losses. Daily Star (Lebanon) and Al Monitor and Daily Star (Lebanon) and Debka (Israel)

US escalates tensions with plans for patrols, aircraft in South China Sea

As China continues to annex other countries' territories in the South China Sea, using military force with impunity, the US military may use aircraft and Navy ships to directly confront China, in a tit for tat escalation of tensions.

China has been annexing regions in the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

In recent months, China has repeated escalated the military aggression by using land reclamation projects to construct man-made islands for military bases and airports in regions surrounding the Spratly Islands that have previously belonged to Vietnam and the Philippines.

There's no word on how the American naval vessels and aircraft will be used, or whether there are conditions beyond self-defense under which they would take military action. They are going to be used for patrols, according to reports, "to underscore the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea." However, this could be interpreted as allowing for defense of Vietnamese or Philippine vessels being harassed by the Chinese.

The US will stay within international waters, but according to China, there are no international waters within the South China Sea, since China claims everything.

Thus, we have the following statement expressing "grave concern" from China's Foreign Ministry:

"We express grave concern about the relevant U.S. remarks. It’s necessary for the U.S. to provide clarification.

China advocates the freedom of navigation in the South China Sea, yet the freedom definitely does not mean that foreign military vessels and aircrafts can enter one country’s territorial waters and airspace at will. China will stay firm in safeguarding territorial sovereignty. ...

We urge parties concerned to be discreet in words and actions, avoid taking any risky and provocative actions and safeguard regional peace and stability."

So if the US is patrolling in "international waters" in the South China Sea, and China claims the entire South China Sea as its "territorial waters," then what steps will China take to "stay firm in safeguarding territorial sovereignty"?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is exactly the kind of tit-for-tat escalation that leads to full scale war during a generational Crisis era, when nationalism and xenophobia are at their highest. At some point, as actions escalate, one side or the other will, by miscalculation, by accident or by intention, take a military action that requires a response, and then things can spiral quickly out of control. CNN and Xinhua and Bloomberg

Vatican to recognize State of Palestine while canonizing Palestinian nuns

The Vatican will sign a treaty on Saturday officially recognizing the State of Palestine. The Vatican has been unofficially referring to the State of Palestine for over a year, but now the treaty makes it official. On Sunday, two nuns who lived in Ottoman Palestine during the 1800s will be canonized and made saints. Vatican News and AFP and YNet (Israel)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 14-May-15 World View -- US escalates tensions with plans for patrols, aircraft in South China Sea thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (14-May-2015) Permanent Link
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13-May-15 World View -- Iran forces Afghans to fight in Syrian regime's collapsing army

Greece makes debt payment as even leftists lose sympathy

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Iran forces Afghans to fight in Syrian regime's collapsing army


Iran's Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani (left) with Afghan Alireza Tavasoli, commander of the Fatemiyoun Brigade, who was killed fighting in Syria. (RFE/RL)
Iran's Quds Force commander Qassem Soleimani (left) with Afghan Alireza Tavasoli, commander of the Fatemiyoun Brigade, who was killed fighting in Syria. (RFE/RL)

As we've been reporting recently, the regime army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad is showing signs of collapse, because of enormous casualty rates, and significant increases in draft-dodging and desertions. After a series of significant defeats to an increasingly organized opposition, al-Assad is desperate to reconstitute his army. ( "3-May-15 World View -- War in Syria turns more and more against al-Assad")

There are increasing reports that Iran is recruiting Afghans for al-Assad's army. The Afghans being recruited are mostly ethnic Hazaras, who are Shias. I've written about the Hazaras a number of times in the past as being victims of horrific terrorist attacks in Pakistan from Taliban-linked groups like Lashkar-e-Jhangvi (LeJ) and Jundullah who are committed to exterminating all Shias in Pakistan, starting with bombings of Shia mosques and schools. People in the Hazara ethnic group live in Iran, as well as in Pakistan and Afghanistan, mostly in poverty, where they usually suffer a great deal of discrimination and violence at the hands of Sunni ethnic groups, especially the Pashtuns.

Hazaras who are illegal immigrants in Iran can be scooped up and forcibly sent to al-Assad's army in Syria, while others are given money and a chance to stay alive and avoid direct torture.

The irony is that the vestiges of the "Syrian civil war" as a civil war are completely disappearing. It's increasingly a proxy war between foreign fighters -- Shia Hezbollah and Shia Afghans on the al-Assad side, and foreign Sunni jihadists from around the world coming to Syria to join the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) or al-Nusra Front (Jabhat al-Nusra) or one of the "moderate" anti-Assad militias. This is in contrast, for example, to the civil war in the Central African Republic (CAR). If you took all the foreigners (foreign fighters) out of Syria, then the war would collapse. If you took all the foreigners (UN and African Union peacekeepers) out of CAR, then the Muslims and Christians would go full-scale at massacring each other.

When the Syrian civil war first started in 2011, I wrote that Syria was in a generational Awakening era, just one generation past Syria's last REAL civil war, which climaxed in 1982 with the bloody massacre of some 40,000 Sunni civilians in Hama. So it's too soon for a new crisis civil war, since too many people remember the last one, so it had to fizzle before long. In 2011, there was no way to predict exactly what scenario it would follow, but now it appears that the scenario is to dissolve into a fight between Shia recruits from Afghanistan and Sunni jihadists from around the world. Al-Monitor and Der Spiegel and Middle East Eye and Business Insider

Debate over the number of European jihadists in Syria

Almost every day, there are new media reports of European jihadists who have gone to Syria to join ISIS or one of the militias fighting against the regime of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad.

According to the European Union Justice Commissioner Vera Jourová, the number of Europeans who have gone to Syria is about 6,000, principally from France, Germany, Belgium and the Netherlands. This number was higher than previous EU estimates, but there are reasons to believe that, as Jourová herself said, these figures may be "severe underestimates."

Estimating the number of European jihadists in Syria depends on adding together the official estimates from each of the 28 EU countries. But there are several reasons why a country may severely underestimate the number of its jihadists that have gone to Syria.

The first reason is that there is no motivation for a country to give a truthful figure, since a high estimate of jihadists from that country makes the country look bad.

The second reason is that there's no way to be sure how many have gone. One German official said that a significant discrepancy exists between the official figure and the real one: "Those are people that we can identify by name. Our problem is that there are constantly people turning up in Syria and Iraq that we previously did not know at all. ... So, the unknown number [Dunkelziffer] is very large."

The appearance of German-, French- and Dutch-speakers in jihadist propaganda videos has become a commonplace, and suggests that the official figures are underestimates. On the other hand, a recently-leaked Spanish police report puts the number as high as 100,000. This figure is probably too high, just as the 6,000 estimate is too low. The credible estimates are that tens of thousands of European jihadists have traveled to Syria. GeoPolitical Monitor

Greece makes debt payment as even leftists lose sympathy

The radical left-wing government of prime minister Alexis Tsipras succeeded in making a scheduled 750 million euro debt repayment to the International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday, but did so only by emptying out an account holding an emergency fund that has to be replenished within weeks.

Greek officials had hoped to obtain the funds for the payment through a law that was passed on April 25 giving the government the right to confiscate cash reserves and bank accounts of all public institutions, including municipalities, provinces, universities and hospitals. Officials had hoped to obtain 2.5 billion euros from the decree, but hundreds of mayors across the country refused to comply, fearing that the money would be lost for good.

Tsipras is averring that his government has met all the commitments he made since his party was elected in January, but in fact he's continuing to refuse to cross his "red lines" and institute reforms to address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

Leftists across Europe had been ebullient after Tsipras' victory in January. European Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker, had hugged Tsipras. Socialist French President François Hollande said Tsipras' victory "underscored that austerity as the only perspective and reality wasn't tolerable anymore."

But now leftists are turning Tsipras, as the perception grows that Tsipras' tenure has been a disaster for Greece, and possibly for the entire EU. Under the austerity program of his predecessor, Antonis Samaras of the New Democracy party, Greece had been achieving a surplus during the last two years.

But in four months under Tsipras, that hard-won surplus has mostly been blown away. Tax receipts are decreasing, and 4 billion euros have been withdrawn from Greek banks since January, in anticipation of a bank run.

Following Tuesday's payment of 750 million euros to the IMF, another 2.1 billion euros are due to the IMF in August, 6.7 billion are due to the European Central Bank (ECB) in July and August. In pensions and wages are included, then Greece must come up with 35 billion euros by the end of August.

There's very little sympathy left in Europe for the Tsipras government. Tsipras is begging for more bailout money, but is refusing to cross any of his "red lines." If the Europeans decide to bail out Greece once more, which would only be "kicking the can down the road" again and postponing the inevitable, it certainly won't be because they like Tsipras. It will be because they decide that another bailout is the lesser of two horrible evils. They've been postponing a decision for weeks, but it's unlikely that they'll be able to postpone it much longer. Reuters and Kathimerini and Reuters and Kathimerini

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 13-May-15 World View -- Iran forces Afghans to fight in Syrian regime's collapsing army thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (13-May-2015) Permanent Link
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12-May-15 World View -- EU seeks approval of military action in Libya against migrant traffickers

Saudis and Houthis escalate Yemen war further, prior to 'ceasefire'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Saudis and Houthis escalate Yemen war further, prior to 'ceasefire'


Former Yemen president Ali Abdullah Saleh addresses the nation from the ruins of his home. (Reuters)
Former Yemen president Ali Abdullah Saleh addresses the nation from the ruins of his home. (Reuters)

The Yemen war is supposed to stop on Tuesday, with both the Saudis and the Iran-backed Houthis observing a 5-day "ceasefire" that will then be renewed indefinitely. So the war escalations that occurred on Monday might be interpreted as (A) each side getting as much done before the ceasefire, or (B) each side having no intention to honor the ceasefire. We should know soon.

The Houthis stepped up their intense artillery and rocket attacks across the border into villages on Saudi Arabia soil. The Saudis consider this to be crossing a "red line."

Two foreign workers from Bangladesh were killed by Houthi artillery in the border city of Najran last week. This is a major humiliation to the Saudis. More than 500 Bangladeshis working in Yemen have returned home in the last month, but those working in Saudi Arabia have remained so far.

The Houthis are also bragging about having shot down a Moroccan warplane which is part of the Saudi coalition.

The Saudis have intensified their airstrikes in Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, and in particular they targeted the home of Yemen's former president Ali Abdullah Saleh, leaving it in ruins. For months, it's been suspected that Saleh was supporting the Houthis, though he's denied it. But after the bombing, Saleh made it official:

"I was not an ally of Ansar Allah [the Houthis ] but today I am announcing from this place that Yemenis will be supportive of anyone who defends the nation's resources."

Few people believe that there will be a ceasefire on Tuesday, but even if there is, even fewer people believe that the ceasefire will hold for long. Daily Star (Dhaka) and Gulf News (Dubai) and Al Arabiya (Riyadh)

EU seeks approval of military action in Libya against migrant traffickers

The European Union, facing a rising tide of migrants, asked the United Nations on Monday to authorize military action to destroy boats used to smuggle people from Libya to Europe.

Federica Mogherini, the EU’s foreign policy chief, told the UN Security Council on Monday that the problem of migrants illegally crossing the Mediterranean from Libya to Europe was major and growing crisis that threatened Europe as well as the migrants themselves.

"Saving lives on one side and dismantling the criminal organizations that are organizing smuggling and trafficking — the two things have to go hand in hand,

It is not only a humanitarian emergency, but also a security crisis, since smuggling networks are linked to, and in some cases finance, terrorist activities, which contributes to instability in a region that is already unstable enough."

The proposal is to destroy the smugglers' "business model." EU forces would board smugglers' boats in Libyan waters, after they've left the Libyan port, remove the migrants, and remove the boat from service. With fewer boats available for smuggling, the flow of migrants would be reduced.

There are a number of problems with this proposal:

The major objection to the plan is that it wouldn't solve the core problem. Most of the migrants are coming to escape brutal conditions in Syria, Eritrea, or other countries. There are reportedly tens of thousands of migrants already in Libya, queuing up to be on a migrant boat, and there are probably tens of thousands more "in the pipeline," en route from their home countries. Even if all the boats could be taken out of service, the result might be a mob situation in Libya.

Also, traffickers get paid something like $2-5,000 per migrant. A rubber dinghy containing 150 migrants is worth hundreds of thousands of dollars to the traffickers. So even if the military proposal worked, the most likely outcome would be a hundreds of new boat-building businesses and rubber dinghy-importing businesses in Libya. The traffickers would find a way to keep their lucrative business going. Irish Times and Full text of draft EU migration plan (PDF) and CNN

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 12-May-15 World View -- EU seeks approval of military action in Libya against migrant traffickers thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (12-May-2015) Permanent Link
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11-May-15 World View -- 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants

Former Libya leader Muammar Gaddafi's son offers to make me rich

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants


Macedonian special units take cover near battle zone in Kumanovo (AP)
Macedonian special units take cover near battle zone in Kumanovo (AP)

A militia group of more than 40 armed men, thought to be ethnic Albanians from the disbanded Albanian/Kosovo Liberation Army (KLA), fought Macedonian police in Kumanovo, near the border with Kosovo. Eight policemen were killed and 37 injured in the gun battle that lasted all day on Saturday, and which led to the death of 14 members of the attackers.

In a nationally televised address on Sunday, Macedonia's president George Ivanov said that the group had been planning terrorist acts across the whole country:

"Police have prevented co-ordinated terrorist attacks at different locations in the country that would cause serious destabilization, chaos and fear. The members of the group are extremists and criminals with remarkable military training and skills. That’s why we have paid such a high price with the loss of lives."

Pro-separatist Muslim Albanian terrorists have conducted numerous attacks on Orthodox Slav targets since the breakup of the former Yugoslavia in the early 1990s, making Macedonia an independent state. About a quarter of Macedonia's two million population are ethnic Albanians.

The bloody, genocidal Bosnian War of the mid-1990s was a generational crisis war for the entire region. It was followed by two minor conflicts, an Orthodox Serb invasion of Kosovo in 1999, and an Albanian insurgency in Macedonia in 2001.

A number of subsequent incidents, including Saturday's gunfight, have led to concerns that there could be a major new war engulfing the region, as happened in the mid-1990s. But that's impossible because the region is in a generational Awakening era, just 20 years past the Bosnian war, and so brief outbreaks of violence are possible, but not a full-scale generational crisis war. BBC and Deutsche Welle and AP

Very brief generational history of Albanian - Macedonian conflict

The ethnic Albanians and the Macedonian Slavs were all mostly Orthodox Christian, but still had many wars during the Middle Ages. When the Ottoman Empire (Turkey) conquered the Balkans, the Albanians converted to Islam, mainly in the 16th and 17th centuries. Under the Ottomans, the Orthodox Slavs were in poverty, subordinated to the Turks and the Albanians. However, the situation reversed after World War I, which was a generational crisis war for the Balkans, when the Ottoman Empire was split up Orthodox Slavs had the upper hand for a while, while the Albanians were the second class citizens.

During World War II, the Albanians, Turks, and Italians were all on the side of Nazi Germany. They attempted to create a "Greater Albania," which would include not only Albanians, but also Greece, Yugoslavia, and other Orthodox Slav territories.

After World War II, the attempts at "Greater Albania" served to create strong nationalist feelings among both Albanians and Macedonians. They had repeated minor conflicts, culminating in the Bosnian War that engulfed Balkans in the mid-1990s. There have been additional minor conflicts since then, including the gunfight on Saturday.

Today, there is a small population of Albanians in Macedonia, and the dreams of a "Greater Albania" are still alive, so it's likely that spurts of violence between Albanians and Macedonians will continue well into the future.

As Yugoslavia disintegrated, Macedonia declared its independence in September, 1991, and immediately became embroiled in a bizarre disagreement with Greece. Greece believes that the name "Macedonia" can refer only to the Greek region of Macedonia, and nothing more. They fear that a new Macedonia nation on the Greek border would attempt to annex Greece's Macedonia region. The dispute was resolved with an uneasy compromise in 1993, when the country was admitted to the United Nations as the "Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia" or "FYR Macedonia."

FYR Macedonia is not a member of the European Union, but has applied to be a member. The "Macedonia" name continues to be a problem, and is one of the issues holding up EU membership. There have been calls to change the country's name to the simpler "Republic of Macedonia" as a compromise. EU Observer and New Balkan Politics (2002) and Global Security (2013) and BBC (Sep-2014)

Former Libya leader Muammar Gaddafi's son offers to make me rich

Like everyone, I receive plenty of spam e-mail messages. One that I received on Sunday is so special that I wanted to share it with my readers:

"I am Mohammad Gaddafi, son of the killed Libyan leader Muamar Gaddafi. My family has been in Algeria until we were recently granted political asylum in Oman.

For your personal consumption and information, my family has a huge sum of money somewhere for investment for the benefit of my family. I am open to investment in any part of the world provided the investments are lucrative and not directly linked to my family and high returns guaranteed on investment. You will be given freedom to invest in any aspect of your countries economy.

Once I receive your email response and confirm that you are capable of investing/managing the funds for us, I will then give you information on how to access the funds and how much it is. You will be entitled to 30% for all your services.

Keep this proposal confidential, please reply me via my private email for further discussion. Regards, Mohammad"

Hey, Mohammad! I loved your brother Saif's vow to "fight until the last bullet." How are you and the family doing? How about just investing directly in Generational Dynamics? That would be your best investment of all! -- Regards, John

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 11-May-15 World View -- 22 die in Macedonian police gun battles with Albanian militants thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (11-May-2015) Permanent Link
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10-May-15 World View -- Yemen war sharply intensifies, as 'truce' is offered.

Rohingya 'death camps' and 'slave camps' found in southern Thailand

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Rohingya 'death camps' and 'slave camps' found in southern Thailand


Suspected ethnic Rohingya migrants, who were rescued by Thai officials from a jungle (Asia News Network)
Suspected ethnic Rohingya migrants, who were rescued by Thai officials from a jungle (Asia News Network)

In 2012 and 2013, we reported several times on massive slaughter by Buddhists of Rohingya Muslims in Myanmar (Burma), led by Buddhist monk Ashin Wirathu. The violence left hundreds dead, and 140,000 homeless. ( "5-Apr-13 World View -- Meiktila, Burma, violence has echoes of Kristallnacht")

At that time, it was clear that thousands of Rohingya families were fleeing for their lives from the Buddhists, though it wasn't entirely clear where they were going.

It's now become more clear what happened to them, with the discovery of "death camps" and "slave camps" in southern Thailand.

Thousands attempted to flee to various countries, including Bangladesh, India, Thailand, Malaysia, Indonesia, Australia, Pakistan, Saudi Arabia and China. Those with money could be transported to safer locations.

Many of them reached Thailand by cargo ships, and then attempted to travel south to Malaysia, where they could obtain work. But many of them didn't make it. According to one expert, "In remote jungle camps in Thailand, transnational criminal networks are beating and torturing their captives in an attempt to extract ransom payments from their families and friends." Those failing to pay ransom are sold to the fishing industry as slave labor or forced to work in the jungle camps.

Many of them starved to death or were simply killed, and dumped into mass graves. Within the last few weeks, some of these mass graves have been discovered, along with the slave labor camps where the others worked. There are reports of similar camps in Malaysia. Bangkok Post and Straits Times (Singapore) and Nation (Myanmar)

Yemen war sharply intensifies, as 'truce' is offered.

Saudi Arabia announced on Thursday a significant escalation of its attacks on the Iran-backed Houthis in Yemen. The escalation was triggered by Houthi cross-border artillery attacks on villages on the Saudi side of the border, forcing the Saudis to close schools and hospitals, and evacuate some villages. This was described as a "red line" by the Saudis.

The Saudis announced on Friday that the entire province of Sadaa would be considered a "military target," and subject to air strikes. Sadaa is in north Yemen, right on the border with Saudi Arabia, and is the stronghold of the ethnic Houthis.

Before blanketing Sadaa with airstrikes, the Saudis dropped leaflets warning civilians to leave the area by Friday evening. They were given only 2-3 hours' notice. Because of the war, there are shortages of gasoline/petrol for cars and buses, so many Houthi civilians are trying to escape the airstrikes by walking. However, thousands of civilians have no place to go anyway.

The Saudis say that on Friday and Saturday, there were 130 airstrikes at 100 sites, targeting tanks, command centers, military vehicles, and weapons stores. Some of the airstrikes targeted hospitals and schools, because they were being used as ammunition depots, according to the Saudis.

The Saudis proposed a five-day ceasefire, to begin on Tuesday, "provided that the Houthis agree that there will be no bombing, no shooting, no movement of their troops or maneuvering to reposition for military advantage, no movement of heavy weapons." Under those conditions, the ceasefire could be renewed after five days.

However, previous ceasefire proposals demanded that the Houthis must first withdraw from the cities they're occupying. Thus, the new Saudi proposal represents a significant change of position, and the Houthis view this as a significant sign of weakness.

According to analysts, the Houthis believe that time is on their side, and that international pressure will force the Saudis to back down, giving the Houthis (and Iran) a victory.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the expectation that the Saudis will back down is unrealistic. Many older Americans can recall how the Americans backed down under similar circumstances during the Vietnam war, but America was in a generational Awakening era at that time, with a "generation gap" that brought enormous political pressure from younger generations on older generations. But Saudi is in a generational Crisis era, when such a generation gap does not exist.

In fact, as we wrote last month in "22-Apr-15 World View -- Patriotism and nationalism surge in Saudi Arabia, but not in Iran", the Saudi people are in no mood to back down to the Houthis, and give an enormous victory to Iran.

For those reasons, the most likely scenario is that airstrikes by the Saudi coalition will increase, and that the next step will be a ground war between the Houthis and Saudi coalition ground forces. AFP and AP and Saudi Press Agency #1 and #2 and #3 and #4

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 10-May-15 World View -- Yemen war sharply intensifies, as 'truce' is offered. thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (10-May-2015) Permanent Link
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9-May-15 World View -- Britain's surprise election and Chaos Theory

Trends in American politics

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Britain's polling organizations fail disastrously


Paddy Ashdown promises to eat his own hat, even though he isn't wearing a hat.  He still hasn't kept his promise.
Paddy Ashdown promises to eat his own hat, even though he isn't wearing a hat. He still hasn't kept his promise.

I watched a lot of the live coverage of the British election on the BBC on Thursday. My favorite moment, and the favorite moment of a lot of other people, occurred just after the election ended, and the exit polls were announced, indicating that David Cameron's Conservative Party (Tories) had unexpectedly won an overwhelming victory. At this point, the leader of the Liberal Democrat party said that the announced exit poll results were completely impossible, and that they contradicted not only the Liberal Democrats' private polling, but also every other poll, and he added:

"If this poll is correct I will publicly eat my hat on your program."

Ashdown wasn't wearing a hat when he said that, but it caused great hilarity, and all the commentators offered him their hats.

This dramatizes what a total failure the pre-election polls had been. I can't recall any polling disaster ever being this bad. (On the evening of the 2004 presidential election, I originally wrote that "exit polls this evening show that John Kerry will be the next president," and I later had to add an update that the exit polls now show Bush is leading.)

For weeks, pollsters had been predicting that Cameron and his principal opponent, Labor Party leader Ed Miliband, were so close in the polls that neither party would be able to form a government without weeks of negotiating with smaller parties. Even as late as Thursday morning, commentators were saying that the election would be historic because there would be no clear victory, and it would take weeks to form a government.

So it's not surprising that Ashdown simply didn't believe the exit polls. A lot of other people didn't either, until the actual election results started coming in from the various constituencies, confirming that the exit polls had been right.

By the way, despite a "#paddyashdownhat" twitter campaign, Ashdown so far has refused to eat any hats, and his opponents are joking that he's just another politician breaking a promise. Independent (London) and Daily Express (London)

Pre-election polls and Chaos Theory

Many people believe that weather forecasting will get better and better, as the science of meteorology and computer models improve. And yet, weather forecasting has gotten only slightly more accurate than it was in the 1960s. It was in the 1960s that Chaos Theory was first developed, and showed that weather forecasting will never improve much, because it was mathematically impossible to improve it more than slightly. That's why there will always be surprise rain and snowstorms.

The same is true of election forecasting, whether by pre-election polls, or by any other method. Chaos theory also applies to election forecasting, so there will always be surprise upsets in elections.

Long-time readers are aware that I've written thousands of articles containing hundreds of Generational Dynamics predictions since I started in 2003, and all of those predictions have turned out to be right. But there has never been a prediction about an election. That's because the Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology forbids attempting to predict any "chaotic event," an event that Chaos Theory says cannot be predicted.

Examples of "chaotic events" are election results, whether it will rain next week, whether stock prices will rise or fall in the next hour, when a panic will occur, when the stock market bubble will burst. The Generational Dynamics forecasting methodology very carefully avoids trying to forecast any chaotic events.

Generational Dynamics forecasts "trend events." The methodology is to look at long term behaviors and attitudes of entire populations or entire generations, and compare them to historical behaviors and attitudes at similar generational eras in the past. Examples of forecasted trend events that I've repeated frequently are: a war between Jews and Arabs re-fighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel; a pre-emptive missile attack by China on the United States; a world war in which the US, Iran and Russia will be allies. The exact details of how these predictions would come about, such as the Arab Awakening and the rise of ISIS, could not be predicted, but the overall trend could be predicted.

For those interested in more information, see the following: Generational Dynamics Forecasting Methodology (PDF)

British and Israeli elections reflected nationalistic surges

One of the trends that I've been describing for years is that when a country goes deeper into a generational Crisis era, as most are today, then they show increased nationalism and xenophobia.

The British election is being widely described as a victory for British nationalism. David Cameron emphasized highly nationalistic themes during his campaign: keeping illegal immigrants out of Britain; holding a referendum in 2017 on Britain leaving the European Union; a stronger and more united United Kingdom. These nationalistic themes clearly appealed to British voters so much that even the highly nationalistic UK Independence Party (UKIP) did poorly.

Some people may challenge the above analysis by pointing out that David Cameron's victory was a right-wing victory propelled by English voters, in contrast to overwhelming left-wing election victories in Scotland. (The United Kingdom is made up of four formerly independent nations: England, Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.)

However, nationalism is not exclusively right-wing. Extreme nationalism can be Fascist or it can be Communist. In the case of Scotland, the victory was of the far-left Scottish Nationalist Party (SNP) which, as the name implies, is highly nationalist. But in Scotland, the nationalism is for Scotland, while in England, the nationalism is for all of Britain.

The victory of Benjamin Netanyahu's Likud party in Israel's March elections has a number of similarities to the British election. Netanyahu emphasized nationalistic themes in his campaign, saying such things as "If we don’t close the gap, there is a real danger that a left-wing government will rise to power," with the implication that the left-wing government would surrender to the Palestinians. In both cases, the pre-election polls were quite wrong, missing the nationalistic turn of the electorate, so that the final election returns were a surprise to everyone.

In the case of Britain, many pundits are saying that the election results show that England and Scotland are very different places. I wrote about this last year in the context of Scotland's independence referendum.

Many people from Scotland speak with pride about the great victory of the Scottish forces over superior English forces in the Battle of Bannockburn, on June 24, 1314, the climax of the First War of Scottish Independence. Scotland and England fought many wars after that, including the War of the Roses (1459-87), and the Armada war with Spain (1588). The most explosive war that followed Scottish independence was the English Civil War (1640-49), that climaxed with the beheading of the English King in 1649. Scotland was only brought to heel in 1707, when England and Scotland signed the "Acts of Union" between the two countries. Now, 308 years later, the people of Scotland are still talking about independence, and last week's election has reinforced those attitudes. Independent (London) and Guardian (London) and Washington Post (18-March)

Trends in American politics

Jerusalem Post political editor Gil Hoffman was interviewed last week on al-Jazeera, and was asked whether Benjamin Netanyahu's political coalition would be able to improve relations with the United States. Here's his response (my transcription):

"Relations with the United States people are wonderful. The polls have recently found that the American people see Israel as one of their closest allies. Both Democratic and Republican parties and all of their candidates for president have good relations with Israel.

There's a problem with the current president of the United States, who will only be in office for another 19 months. He has a problem with Israel, he has a problem with Arab and Muslim countries, he's turned off people throughout this region, and soon he will be gone, and things will be better."

It is quite remarkable. When Barack Obama became president, we had good relations with most Mideast countries, except Iran. Obama has been pissing off officials in one country after another, and his "red line" flip-flop after Syria's president Bashar al-Assad used Sarin gas on his own people has been particularly damaging. As far as Iran is concerned, Iranian leaders have no respect for Obama, and continually mock and insult him and America in their speeches.

However, Hoffman is wrong when he says, "things will be better." As I've said many dozens of times, it's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that even in a dictatorship, major policies and events are determined by masses of people, entire generations of people, and not by politicians. Thus, Hitler was not the cause of WW II. What politicians say or do is irrelevant, except insofar as their actions reflect the attitudes of the people that they represent, and so politicians can neither cause nor prevent the great events of history.

When Barack Obama first took office, I said that it made no difference what he said or did, the outcome of his presidency would be no different than if George Bush had a third term.

Time has proven that to be true. Obama promised to close Guantanamo, and it's still open. He promised to cure global warming, and all his attempts have been farces. He promised to withdraw from Iraq, and he did that, but now he's back again. He promised to beat the Taliban in Afghanistan, and he's failed at that. He promised to bring a two-state peace solution to Palestinians and Israelis, and every attempt has been a disaster. He promised to dismantle President Bush's "war against terror," but now the rise of ISIS means that the war on terror is far from over. In terms of outcomes, Obama and Bush are pretty much identical.

As Hoffman said, Obama will be gone in 19 months, and there will be a new president, a Republican or a Democrat. But nothing will change. The Mideast will still be headed for war between Jews and Arabs (or the war may already have begun), and China will still be rapidly militarizing in preparation for a massive missile attack on the United States (or the missile attack may already have occurred).

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 9-May-15 World View -- Britain's surprise election and Chaos Theory thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (9-May-2015) Permanent Link
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8-May-15 World View -- Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan

Misplaced concerns that Burundi is on brink of civil war

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Anti-government riots and violence increase in Burundi


A Hutu youth who escaped a Tutsi mob by hiding in the sewer on Thursday begs for mercy from Burundi soldiers (CNN)
A Hutu youth who escaped a Tutsi mob by hiding in the sewer on Thursday begs for mercy from Burundi soldiers (CNN)

Hundreds of college students in Bujumbura, Burundi's capital city, are demonstrating against president Pierre Nkurunziza, because he plans to run for a third term as president, apparently violating the constitution. Nkurunziza became president in 2005 when a new constitution was adopted, and he was re-elected as president in 2010. The constitution restricts anyone from more than two terms, but Nkurunziza now says he'll run for a third term, claiming that the first term doesn't count because he was appointed, not elected. His announcement has triggered large anti-government protests, violence and a couple of deaths, ahead of the election in June.

Burundi is right next door to Rwanda, and was part of the massive genocidal civil war between Hutus and Tutsis in 1994 that killed almost a million people in just three months. (See my "Generational history of Hutu and Tutsi tribes" in my April 30 report on the Burundi violence.)

The renewed violence is frightening a lot of people, who fear that it will spiral into a renewal of the 1994 war between Hutus and Tutsis. Some 400,000 people have already fled from Burundi into refugee camps in neighboring countries, mostly Rwanda.

The fact that Nkurunziza is running for a third term is already a very bad sign. Burundi's Constitutional Court issued a ruling that the third term was legal, but one of the judges had to flee the country, claiming that the Nkurunziza administration had threatened the court unless they supported him.

And Nkurunziza is promising that if he wins a third term, then he won't run for a fourth term. This is completely laughable, as he's currently breaking earlier promises not to run for a third term. And anyone who's ever believed in a politician in the past is quickly aware that such promises are completely worthless. CNN and AP

Concerns over an all-out crisis civil war in Burundi are misplaced

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what we're witnessing here is a common pattern that occurs frequently after a country that goes through a crisis civil war. A new generation has grown up since 1994, putting Burundi into a generational Awakening era. And what frequently happens at these times is that people panic at any sign of violence for fear that the crisis civil war will be repeated.

Once of the most interesting examples of this occurred in ancient Rome in 49 BC, when Julius Caesar "crossed the Rubicon River" with his army, triggering a brief civil war. There's historical evidence that the people of Rome panicked, because they feared a repeat of the extremely bloody "Social War" of the Italian allied states that occurred from 91-87 BC. All of Italy was devastated, and over 100,000 people were killed.

The irony is that the panic is completely misguided, because a new crisis civil war during a generational Awakening era is impossible. The reason is the same reason why people panic -- there are plenty of traumatized survivors of the previous crisis civil war, and they have been devoting their lives to making sure that nothing like that happens again -- and nothing like that does happen again as long as those survivors are alive and in power. It's only decades later, when they retire or die, that a new crisis civil war can begin.

Contrast what's happening in Burundi to the situation in the Central African Republic (CAR), where a true crisis civil war is in progress. CAR's last generational crisis war was the 1928-1931 Kongo-Wara Rebellion ("War of the Hoe Handle"), which was a very long time ago, putting CAR deep into a generational Crisis era, making a new crisis war inevitable. Here's how Médecins Sans Frontières (MSF - Doctors without Borders) described the current situation:

"We have seen some areas where all there is are burnt houses. People are hiding in the forest afraid of the presence of armed groups. There are no security forces or actors providing healthcare. People are living in very dire conditions that could get worse at any moment if the insecurity persists. On top of that, the rainy season is about to start and people living in forests are completely exposed to harsh weather. Villagers even risk their houses being destroyed if they cannot come home soon to prepare them for the heavy rains to come. What we are seeing here is an example of the situation that hundreds of thousands of people suffer in CAR every day: a terrible mix of violence, displacement and a lack of access to even basic healthcare."

CAR is a huge country, and this kind of violence has been going on across the entire country for over two years, with no end in sight. The violence in Burundi isn't nearly as bad and is highly localized, and has only been going on for a few weeks.

The violence going on in Burundi now is very similar to America's last Awakening era, the 1960s. You had "long hot summers" and massive riots in Los Angeles, Chicago and other cities, and you had the Weather Underground setting off bombs. There were people, especially older people who had seen what happened in other countries in World War II, who were predicting that America could spiral into violence, possibly into a civil war. Of course that didn't happen, and can't happen during a generational Awakening era.

So the fears of another massive civil war between the Hutus and Tutsis at this time are misplaced. That doesn't mean that that the people of Burundi have nothing to fear. A civil war may not last years, but it might last a few weeks or months. Also, the president Nkurunziza may follow the wonderful example of Zimbabwe's president Robert Mugabe, who has been consistently reelected for 40 years by sending his army out to kill, torture, rape, dismember or massacre anyone who opposes him. ( "17-Apr-15 World View -- South African xenophobic violence echoes 1820s Mfecane Zulu massacre")

Nkurunziza is a Hutu, and he may follow Mugabe's example and send the army out to torture and kill the Tutsis. The foundations for this outcome have already been laid. Daily Maverick (S. Africa) and CS Monitor

Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan

Fears continue to grow throughout Central Asia of an alliance between the Taliban and Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh) in Afghanistan, as I described early last month. An alliance between the two militant groups faces many obstacles. Although both groups are simply thugs, the doctrines they claim to follow are significantly different, with ISIS following a strict form of Salafi-Takfiri Islam from Saudi Arabia, while the Afghan Taliban are mostly followers of Deobandi Islam based in South Asia. Furthermore, they have different geopolitical objectives, with ISIS claiming to lead a worldwide caliphate, and the Taliban's interested focused on the Afghanistan-Pakistan region.

However, in the Afghan province of Kunduz, it appears that the Taliban and ISIS have buried their differences enough to work together. The evidence is from an examination of dead bodies of militants fighting security forces in Kunduz. Many of the fighters are foreigners, including some women from Chechnya, and some villages under rebel control are flying both the white flag of the Taliban and the black flag of ISIS.

The Afghan Taliban would welcome ISIS if they worked with the Taliban in the way as other militant groups, including al-Qaeda, Tehrik-e-Taliban (TTP - Pakistan Taliban), and Islamic Movement of Uzbekistan (IMU). These groups are free to pursue their own agendas as long as they do not interfere with Taliban affairs and sometimes assist as requested. But instead of cooperating with the Taliban, ISIS may compete with the Taliban in Afghanistan, leading to possible violence between the two groups. Public Radio International and The Diplomat and Guardian (London)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 8-May-15 World View -- Fears grow in Central Asia of an ISIS-Taliban alliance in Afghanistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (8-May-2015) Permanent Link
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7-May-15 World View -- Greece tries to avoid bankruptcy, as Europe stands firm, for now

Jean-Claude Jüncker warns of Anglo-Saxon threat to eurozone

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greece makes one debt payment, wonders if it can make the next


Greece's Port of Piraeus
Greece's Port of Piraeus

Greece's government apparently succeeded in making a 200 million euro interest payment due on Wednesday. It did so by scraping up money wherever it could. In particular, it passed a law on April 25 giving it the right to confiscate cash reserves and bank accounts of all public institutions, including municipalities, provinces, universities and hospitals.

Greece is scheduled to make two additional payments this month, totaling close to one billion euros.

Having confiscated money from public institutions, it's getting pretty clear that the next step will be private businesses and individual residents. In fact, the first step may occur within days, after the government revealed plans to introduce a surcharge on cash withdrawals from bank accounts. The European Central Bank (ECB) will have to approve the measure, but the surcharge is expected to be one euro for every thousand euro transaction.

A senior finance ministry official said, "The surcharge is just one of a grab-bag of measures we are considering if things get tough."

The next "grab-bag" measure is expected to be what are called "capital controls" -- limiting the amount of money that can be transferred to banks outside the country. Many panicking Greek citizens have already completely cleared out their bank accounts, pulling more than 28 billion euros out of banks. Daily Mail (London)

Europeans reject more bailout money for Greece, for now

Positions continue to be very hard on both sides of the negotiations to provide additional bailout money to Greece. Greek officials continue to stall on providing a list of committed reforms that was promised in February. The list would need to address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies. Instead, Greek officials continue to make vague promises about collecting more taxes and ending corruption. As a result, more bailout money is out of the question, for now.

On Tuesday, Greek officials accused the lending institutions -- the European Central Bank (ECB), the European Commission (EC), and the International Monetary Fund (IMF), formerly known as "the Troika" -- of being at fault: "Serious disagreements between the IMF and the EU are creating obstacles and big risks in the negotiations."

This infuriated Germany's finance minister Wolfgang Schaeuble, who said, "Neither the troika, nor Europe, nor Germany can be blamed for Greece's problems. Greece lived beyond its means for many years."

However, there apparently is a big disagreement within the Troika. The IMF wants the Troika to simply write off a large percentage of Greek debt, while the EC is opposed such debt relief. Kathimerini and ZeroHedge and Bloomberg

Jean-Claude Jüncker warns of Anglo-Saxon threat to eurozone


Jean-Claude Jüncker in 2005, shaking his fist at British prime minister Tony Blair (BBC)
Jean-Claude Jüncker in 2005, shaking his fist at British prime minister Tony Blair (BBC)

European Commission President Jean-Claude Jüncker said that "Grexit" -- meaning Greece exiting the eurozone -- is not an option, because it would be part of an Anglo-Saxon conspiracy. According to Jüncker:

"The world wants to know which way we are going. We should make sure that everyone understands that the economic and monetary union is irreversible, that the euro is a currency that is here to stay, which is not going to be abolished or suspended. ...

Grexit is not an option. If Greece would accept it, if the others would accept it, that the country would exit the zone of security and prosperity constituted by the eurozone, we would be exposed to huge danger, because the Anglo-Saxon world would do everything to try to decompose, at a regular rhythm, by (the) sale, apartment by apartment, of the eurozone."

Long-time readers know that when Jüncker was chairman of the Eurogroup of eurozone financial ministers I used to mock him and make fun of him all the time because of all the ridiculous things he said during the various Greek financial crises. The topper occurred in 2011 when journalists caught him in a complete lie, and he said, When it becomes serious, you have to lie, to explain why he lied. From that point on, we could always assume that everything he said was a lie, since everything was always serious.

I haven't quoted Jüncker for a while, ever since he stopped being Eurogroup chairman, so it's fun to have him back again saying moronic things about an Anglo-Saxon conspiracy to break up the eurozone. EurActiv

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 7-May-15 World View -- Greece tries to avoid bankruptcy, as Europe stands firm, for now thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (7-May-2015) Permanent Link
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6-May-15 World View -- In a surprise, Senegal joins a beleaguered Saudi coalition in Yemen

'Saudi troops' landing in Aden were really Yemeni troops

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

In a surprise, Senegal joins a beleaguered Saudi coalition in Yemen


Aftermath of Saudi airstrike on Sanaa airport on Monday (Reuters)
Aftermath of Saudi airstrike on Sanaa airport on Monday (Reuters)

In a surprise announcement, Senegal's foreign minister on Monday said that the country will be send 2,100 troops to Saudi Arabia as part of an international coalition fighting against the Houthis in Yemen.

Since Saudi Arabia has not yet committed ground troops to Yemen, it's not clear what the Senegalese troops will be doing.

According to the foreign minister, "The international coalition is aiming to protect and secure the holy sites of Islam, Medina and Mecca." These two cities in Saudi Arabia are heavily guarded by Saudi troops, and so the implication is that the Senegalese troops will guard the two cities, freeing up the Saudi troops. This would mean that Senegal is stationary guards, rather than the combat troops that the Saudis really need.

The reason that Senegal's announcement was a surprise is that Senegal is on the west coast of Africa, which is many, many worlds away from Yemen, which is east of the east coast of Africa. Furthermore, many young people in Senegal are against sending Senegalese to far-away foreign wars, particularly since the cities of Mecca and Medina do not appear to be threatened by the Houthis in Yemen. However, Senegal depends on aid from Saudi Arabia, and so this is a way to suck up. BBC and Washington Post

Pakistan and Saudi Arabia appear to reconcile over Yemen

The Kingdom of Saudi Arabia now has a number of countries in its coalition: Bahrain, Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, Morocco, Egypt, Jordan, Sudan, Senegal.

These countries are contributing warplanes to the effort, but none of these countries has agreed to send combat troops to Yemen, and two of the major Sunni Muslim countries, Pakistan and Turkey, are missing from the list.

Saudi Arabia received a particularly harsh blow a month ago, when Pakistan's parliament passed a resolution calling on the government to remain neutral between Saudi Arabia and Iran in the Yemen conflict.

As we reported at the time, the repercussions began immediately, beginning with a blistering condemnation by the United Arab Emirates (UAE). There are two million Pakistanis living in Saudi Arabia, and they contribute $4.73 billion per year to Pakistan through remittances, so there have been widespread fears of retaliation directed at Pakistanis working in the Kingdom.

However, Pakistan's top civil and military leadership met with Saudi authorities last week, and the two countries appeared to reconcile. According to the statement, "Saudi Arabia’s next move in the region, including any possible offensive, will materialize only after mutual consultation." What this means is that if the Saudis want Pakistan's help, then they should consult with Pakistan and get mutual agreement before taking any action.

Based on that commitment, Pakistan has reversed its earlier stance of neutrality, and will provide military assistance. According to the statement:

"All the matters between Pakistan and Saudi Arabia over the Yemen war have been settled amicably. ... Without ground operations, no one can establish the government’s writ in the conflict zone. ...

Pakistan cannot remain a bystander if efforts are made to destabilize Saudi Arabia."

However, it's not clear whether Pakistan will provide combat troops, as Pakistan is promising only to provide military assistance, including equipment for fighting in the tribal areas of Yemen.

The only public mention of Pakistani troops was related to the reinstatement of Abdu Rabu Mansour Hadi, who was president at the time of the Houthis' coup. "They also talked about the Pakistani armed forces’ role in Yemen after Hadi is [properly] reinstated," according to the statement. Not mentioned is the fact that reinstatement of Hadi may not occur at all, or not before additional months of fighting. Gulf Times and Foreign Policy

'Saudi troops' landing in Aden were really Yemeni troops

Reports over the weekend said that Saudi troops had landed in the southern port of Aden.

The Saudis now say that those are Yemeni troops who were returning to Yemen from Gulf Arab countries where they had been retrained for combat. According to the Yemen government in exile in Riyadh: "It's a group of the Yemeni forces. We retrained them, and we send them to organize things. We are now training more, and we are sending more." Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 6-May-15 World View -- In a surprise, Senegal joins a beleaguered Saudi coalition in Yemen thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (6-May-2015) Permanent Link
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5-May-15 World View -- China builds Navy designed to overwhelm the US Navy

Philippine fishermen harassed by China's 'cabbage strategy'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

China builds Navy designed to overwhelm the US Navy


Members of the Chinese Navy honor guard (Getty)
Members of the Chinese Navy honor guard (Getty)

A new report by the US Office of Naval Intelligence reveals a massive naval building program underway in China, with the objective of overwhelming the US Navy.

The heart of China's current buildup in the PLA(N) (People's Liberation Army (Navy)) is the YJ-18 supersonic anti-ship cruise missile, with a maximum range of 111 miles at a speed of Mach 0.8 and a higher speed range of 24 miles.

In the past, we've described China's DF-21D long-range anti-ship ballistic missile, with the specific capability of attacking and disabling American aircraft carriers. ( "2-Aug-11 World View -- China could defeat U.S. in war over Taiwan") The DF-21D is designed to travel for long distances at high altitudes to the region of the aircraft carrier, and then use heat sensors to detect its current position. China has deployed about a dozen of these missiles, and some (though not all) military analysts believe that an aircraft carrier group could effectively defend against a simultaneous attack of several DF-21Ds.

The YJ-18 presents an aircraft carrier with an entirely different set of problems. The YJ-18 has a much smaller range than the DF-21D, but it's also a lot cheaper to manufacture. As a result, China can produce hundreds of these missiles and then use them for a mass attack on an aircraft carrier. According to one military official: "I’d be more worried about the many dozens of cruise missiles you could have launched at you from nearby submarines and ships than I would about the dozen anti-ship ballistic missiles that might get launched at you."

While America's naval fleet has been declining in size, depending on fewer large vessels, China has been producing larger numbers of smaller, more agile naval weapons and missile systems. According to one expert, "Once again we confront the dilemmas of asymmetric warfare. Missiles of all kinds are far cheaper and easier to build than large surface warships. There is probably no air defense system that can reliably fight off a saturation attack launched at a target as large as a CVN [nuclear-powered aircraft carrier]."

Concerns are growing that it won't be long before China's navy is larger than the American navy, which will be unable to defend itself. Another expert puts it succinctly: "The heart of our navy today is the aircraft carrier, an effective weapon. Almost all of our other surface ships exists to serve it. That works well against third rate navies, but in a fight against a modern naval power, our carrier fleets could not leave port."

As I've been saying for ten years, Generational Dynamics predicts that China is preparing for a massive pre-emptive missile attack on America's cities, military bases, and aircraft carriers. This might occur next week, next week, next year, or later, This will result in a world war that will pit the West plus Japan plus India plus Russia plus Iran versus China plus Pakistan plus the Sunni Muslim states, with other countries joining in on either side, in a world war that may well last close to a decade. China is preparing for the pre-emptive attack in the belief that they will win the war quickly, which makes Xi Jinping and the Chinese people as stupid as Hitler and the Nazis. History's greatest disasters are brought about by the stupidest people, and this time the stupidest people are Xi Jinping and Chinese, and those who survive will deeply regret their almost unbelievable stupidity, as they go down in history as worse than the Nazis. Office of Naval Intelligence and Free Beacon and Office of Naval Intelligence

Philippine fishermen harassed by China's 'cabbage strategy'

While the Naval Intelligence report on China's Navy describes China's plans for massive attacks on American aircraft carriers with hundreds of low-cost supersonic cruise missiles, Philippine fishermen in the South China Sea are already being targeted by the Chinese using a similar kind of strategy.

Philippine fishermen are being harassed more and more by Chinese vessels in fishing grounds that the Filipinos have been using for centuries.

China has been using what the Chinese general Zhang Zhaozhong several years ago called a “cabbage” strategy: assert a territorial claim and then create new facts on the ground by gradually surrounding the area with multiple layers of security, thus denying access to a rival.

In the case of South China Sea fishing grounds, China is sending massive numbers of fishing vessels and patrol boats into other countries' fishing grounds. Any other country's fishing vessel is harassed by a variety of techniques -- bullhorn warnings, blockades, water cannons, and even violently boarding the ship and dumping its fish cargo overboard. In this way, China expects to take over the entire South China Sea without firing a shot.

China's Foreign Ministry recently responded to accusations that it had illegally used water cannon on Philippine fishing boats. Filipino fishermen said that China’s coast guard boarded their fishing boats and threw away fish catch and fishing gear.

According to the spokesman:

"Official Chinese vessels in waters near the Huangyan island [the Philippines' Scarborough Shoal] carried out their duties and managed the relevant waters according to law.

Recently, many Philippine fishing boats disobeyed China’s administration and gathered illegally in Huangyan Island waters, violating China’s sovereignty and maritime rights and interests.

We demand that the Philippine side increase its education and control of its fishermen, and cease all behavior that violates China’s sovereignty and rights and interests."

What Philippines fishermen are learning is that China will use military force to take anything it wants, and that it will not stop any more than Hitler and the Nazis were stopped from annexing Czechoslovakia and Poland.

When I was growing up in the 1950s, I remember asking my mother why the World War had happened. She answered, "Because some people are selfish and want to take things that don't belong to them." What the Nazis did ended very badly for everyone, and so will what the Chinese are doing. Reuters and Project Syndicate (Nov-2013) and Philippine Star

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 5-May-15 World View -- China builds Navy designed to overwhelm the US Navy thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (5-May-2015) Permanent Link
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4-May-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia denies reports of Saudi ground troops in Yemen

Jimmy Carter blames Netanyahu for failure of Mideast peace negotiations

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Jimmy Carter blames Netanyahu for failure of Mideast peace negotiations


Jimmy Carter shakes hands with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, the West Bank, on Saturday (Reuters)
Jimmy Carter shakes hands with Palestinian president Mahmoud Abbas in Ramallah, the West Bank, on Saturday (Reuters)

Former US president Jimmy Carter said that Israel's prime minister Benjamin Netanyahu does not want a two-state solution and never did:

"I don’t believe that Prime Minister Netanyahu desires to have the same goal achieved that all American presidents and secretaries of state have advocated, and that is a two-state solution. I think he made that quite clear during the campaign, that as long as he’s in charge, there will be no two-state solution, and therefore no Palestinian state. ...

President Obama follows the policy that every president has followed since I’ve been in politics, that a two-state solution is best. And my conviction is, and I would imagine that many people in America would agree, that Netanyahu does not now, and has not really ever, sincerely believed in a two- state solution with a Palestinian state alongside Israel, both living in peace. ...

The end of occupation and settlement expansion that a two-state outcome implies is, in our view, the best guarantee of Israel’s future security and acceptance by its neighbors,” he said. “To help achieve this goal, we feel it is high time that the countries of Europe take a more proactive role, underpinned by a serious financial commitment to assist in Gaza’s reconstruction."

In 2006, Jimmy Carter's book "Palestine: Peace Not Apartheid" was published. In it, he said, "Israel’s continued control and colonization of Palestinian land have been the primary obstacles to a comprehensive peace agreement in the Middle East." In 2002, the Nobel Peace Prize was awarded to Jimmy Carter "for his decades of untiring effort to find peaceful solutions to international conflicts, to advance democracy and human rights, and to promote economic and social development."

President George Bush proposed the "Roadmap to Mideast Peace" that advocated a two-state solution, a State of Palestine existing side-by-side with a State of Israel in peace and harmony. However, As I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", no peace plan can work because Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel. Both Presidents Bush and Obama have tried several times to implement the 2003 peace plan, but have failed every time, less because of opposition by Netanyahu, and more by the fact that the people of the West Bank, governed by the Palestinian Authority, and the people of Gaza, governed by Hamas, hate each other and cannot get along. Jerusalem Post and Nobel Prize

European Union in disarray over big surge in migrants this weekend

Over the weekend, European Union rescue boats rescued almost 6,000 migrants coming from Libya to Italy. At one point, 17 separate rescue missions were taking place simultaneously.

The surge in the weekend's migrants was due to the warm weather and calm seas. It's thought that the flood of migrants will continue to increase over the summer, only leveling off in the fall with the colder weather.

In March, EU border control executive director Fabrice Leggeri said that, "We are told there are between 500,000 and one million migrants ready to leave from Libya. We have to be aware of the risks." This figure has not been independently confirmed, but it's believed that there are at least tens of thousands of migrants in Libya queued up to make a trip to Europe, and that hundreds of thousands of migrants will make their way to Europe by the end of the year.

According to reports, migrant smugglers have adopted an effective new method for transiting migrants from Libya to Europe. The smuggler obtains a simple rubber dinghy, fills it up with migrants so that it's dangerously loaded, and sends the dinghy out into the Mediterranean Sea. The migrants are instructed to wait until they see a boat, and then to slash the rubber on the dinghy so that it sinks. Government and commercial vessels are required by international law to rescue passengers on a sinking boat.

EU is funding an enlarged search and rescue operation in the Mediterranean called Operation Triton. However, there is substantial disagreement in the EU about how arriving migrants are to be distributed among the 28 EU countries. Human rights organizations are demanding that each EU country take a suitable percentage of the migrants, but some countries are refusing to take any at all. UK officials, in particular, are refusing to agree to accept any migrants, for fear of increasing the popularity of the anti-immigrant UK Independence Party (UKIP), which is advocating complete withdrawal of the UK from the EU. There are similar concerns in France because of the rise of Marine Le Pen's Front National. Guardian and Gulf News and International Business Times (6-Mar)

Saudi Arabia denies reports of Saudi ground troops in Yemen

According to reports from Yemen, there were helicopter gunships hovering overhead, as at least 20 troops from a Saudi-led Arab coalition came ashore Sunday in Yemen's southern port city of Aden. Some officials called it a "reconnaissance" mission directed at the Iran-backed Houthi militias that have taken control of most of Yemen.

Saudi Arabia began conducting a fierce campaign of airstrikes against Houthi targets on March 23, ended it on April 21, and then started it up again on April 22. The Saudis have always said that they planned to follow up the air campaign with a ground invasion. It's thought that Sunday's troop landing is in anticipation of the ground invasion.

The Saudi military spokesman denied that there was any troop landing on Sunday, but he was too clever by half:

"I can assure you that no [coalition] forces disembarked on the ground in Aden today."

Analysts are pointing to his use of "today" as a weasel-word to avoid answering the question. AP and The National (UAE) and Arab News

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 4-May-15 World View -- Saudi Arabia denies reports of Saudi ground troops in Yemen thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (4-May-2015) Permanent Link
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3-May-15 World View -- War in Syria turns more and more against al-Assad

Economy falters, surprising economists, while stock market bubble explodes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

War in Syria turns more and more against al-Assad


Smoke rises from buildings due to heavy clashes between Free Syrian army fighters and Syrian government forces.
Smoke rises from buildings due to heavy clashes between Free Syrian army fighters and Syrian government forces.

As I wrote a month ago in "8-Apr-15 World View -- Bashar al-Assad's Syria army showing signs of collapse", major defeats of al-Assad's army in Idlib and Yarmouk led to reports that the army of Syria's president Bashar al-Assad's is badly fracturing.

In the intervening month, there have been increasing reports that al-Assad's army is in serious trouble and, at the same time, his opposition is becoming more powerful.

The Syrian army has suffered enormous casualty rates. Reports indicate that draft-dodging and desertions are up significantly, that the collapse of the Syrian economy has bankrupted the government, and that members of Assad's inner circle are fighting with one another, to the point where Assad's political security chief was beaten to death.

At the same time, there's been a major realignment of the forces opposing al-Assad. In the past, they have been a disorganized collection of militias, but now they're becoming a lot more organized. The situation was summarized in an al-Jazeera interview of Fawaz Gerges from the London School of Economics (my transcription):

"[The big difference now is] unified command. Fighting under basically one particular leadership. Al-Nusra Front and other radical Islamists like Kata’ib Ahrar al-Sham, are the driver. The Free Syrian Army really plays a minor role.

And the most important element is the pivotal support that Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar are providing. The first time the three regional powers are providing fundamental support. Not just in terms of arms, not only in terms of money, command and control, leadership, and management of the battlefield plans. This is very serious. While the Syrian army - what - is exhausted, overextended, and basically does not have enough manpower to face up to this new coalition. ...

The advent of coming to power of King Salman in Saudi Arabia has brought about a major rapprochement between Saudi Arabia on the one hand and Qatar and Turkey. So, the three states have joined together to deliver a blow to the Assad regime, and they have basically done so. Not only in Idlib and Jisr al-Shegour, a strategic town, bordering on the major government power base."

Gerges refers to Jabhat al-Nusra (al-Nusra Front) as a leading Islamist militia, the official arm of al-Qaeda in Syria, but not the only one. The flood of jihadists that have poured into Syria from countries around the world have benefitted not only the Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), but also al-Nusra Front and other Islamist militias.

The other major factor is that the three major Sunni Muslim countries -- Turkey, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar -- are now lining up against al-Assad. (Gerges doesn't mention Egypt.)

Gerges makes it clear that even though al-Assad's army is in trouble, it is far from defeated. He says that this group of Islamist militias may defeat al-Assad and then take control of Syria's government, but this kind of outcome might take months or years of additional fighting. Business Insider and New York Times and Jerusalem Post

Economy falters, surprising economists, while stock market bubble explodes


S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 20.98 on May 1 (WSJ)
S&P 500 Price/Earnings ratio at astronomically high 20.98 on May 1 (WSJ)

Analysts were shocked on when data released on Wednesday showed that the Gross Domestic Product (GDP) in the first quarter grew sharply less than they had expected -- 0.2%, rather than the predicted 1%, after rising 2.2% in the last quarter of last year.

As usual, the mainstream economists called it just a blip, nothing to be concerned about, but if they really believed that then they wouldn't have been shocked. The problem is that this has been going on for years, since the 2007 credit crunch. Every time the GDP goes up a bit, as it did in Q4, mainstream economists pull out their macroeconomic models from the 70s, 80s, and 90s, and announce that the economy is finally on an upsurge, and that the "Great Recession" is finally ending. So the shock is not that they got it wrong this time, but that they got it wrong time after time after time since 2007.

Long-time readers will recall that I used to repeatedly mock and make fun of mainstream economists. Each quarter I would post the consensus forecasts for growth in that quarter, and then the actual growth figures when they came out. It was a major farce.

I always like to point out that mainstream economists didn't foresee and still can't explain the tech bubble at the end of the 1990s, or why it occurred at that time and not during the PC explosion of the 1980s. They didn't foresee and can't explain the Nasdaq crash in 2000, didn't foresee and can't explain the real estate and credit bubbles of the mid-2000s, didn't foresee and can't explain the credit crunch that began in 2007, didn't foresee and can't explain the global financial crisis, and have gotten wrong almost every forecast since then.

The reason that the tech bubble occurred in the late 1990s is because that's exactly the time when the risk-averse survivors of the 1929 crash and Great Depression all disappeared (retired or died), leaving behind the younger generations with no personal knowledge of the dangers of debt. Generational theory can explain almost everything that's occurred in the last 15 years, but mainstream economists never think of this because they have a brain malfunction that keeps them from understanding even the simplest and most obvious generational explanation of anything. At any rate, if they want to get their forecasts right, then they have to dig out the macroeconomic models from the 1930s, and throw away the models from the 70s-90s, which are irrelevant today.

According to Friday's Wall Street Journal, the S&P 500 Price/Earnings index (stock valuations index) on Friday morning (May 1) was astronomically high, just below 21. This is far above the historical average of 14. Furthermore, it was 18 just a year ago, indicating that the stock market bubble is getting so large it's close to exploding. Generational Dynamics predicts that a panic will occur, and that the P/E ratio will fall to the 5-6 range or lower, which is where it was as recently as 1982, resulting in a Dow Jones Industrial Average of 3000 or lower.

So we have a continuation of their bizarre situation where the economy is getting weaker (or, at least, not getting stronger), which causes the Fed to pursue policies that pour billions of dollars into the banking system, which finds its way into the stock market bubble and into the pockets of the "top 1%." If you want to know why there are no jobs in Baltimore and elsewhere, this is where you should be looking. Bloomberg

Financial firm analyst told to shut up about over-valued assets

ZeroHedge on Saturday posted an analysis of an economic indicator, the rejection of credit applications. This is a crucial indicator of how the economy is doing, since if businesses are suddenly unable to get credit, then it could lead to a severe recession, just like the credit crunch of 2007.

What I found most interesting about the article was a portion of the comments section. The writer submitted a report to a top manager at a large financial firm, and in response he was essentially told to lie:

"=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:01 | 6053912 Haus-Targaryen

On an aside -- I had to do a report on a couple asset classes in the States over the past few months. I submitted it to my boss in the States on Wednesday of last week. I laid out essentially and irrefutably why the asset classes are horribly over-valued, most of the barometers used to measure their value are horribly bastardized, and why we should avoid them like the plague.

My boss sent me an email Thursday in the US around noon EST -- where he said he did not appreciate me injecting my opinions into the report and I should try again without a biased approach. As an example, he said I should take out the labor force participation rate as it is a biased barometer and should use Federal Unemployment numbers exclusively. He said I should quit comparing the CPI to various food, energy, education and medical care price indexes, as it presents an unfair picture of the USD's purchasing power of these assets and should focus on the CPI instead. He said the Baltic dry index is irrelevant and our clients care more about equity performances, and I should take out the BDI.

Essentially he wants to lie through my teeth to these people. I don't know what to do, except know for a fact that, given this guy is one of the top 5 at a firm literally everyone on here knows -- and he is considered to be a genius in his field -- we are all beyond f--ked.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:11 | 6053919 SWCroaker

Haus, my suggestion: get over it, learn to lie. Just don't ever start believing your own lies.

Surviving in a f'ed up situation sometimes puts the positive aspect of retaining your head above those accrued from a moral fight against the system. Look in history to the example of Sophie Scholl, who (in my armchair quarterback opinion) gave her life in protest, and thereby removed herself from the scene for what could have been 70 years of highly successful subversion and rebellion.

Spitting into the wind isn't all that noble in the end.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:23 | 6053941 Haus-Targaryen

This is essentially what I am doing.

"Yeup, MBS are a great and safe buy. Seriously. It's different this time."

I am documenting this via emails to myself. Noting what egregious bulls--t it is, and how I am being forced to do this and by who. No one will hang this around my neck when this whole thing burns to the ground again.

But I guess I gotta keep doing this kinda crap until I can start making some decisions around here -- assuming we survive the next "correction" -- which I am not sure of.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:28 | 6053950 Skateboarder

Hang in there Haus, and give 'em what they want - you don't need to feel bad. It's all lies in the end anyway. Stay true in your heart, and live for the remaining righteous things in life. In the days of manufactured existence, righteousness is you producing 'unmanufactured' output. Always important to remember that job =/= work. Your work is what defines your contribution and connection to the universe, and it can be entirely within your head.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:13 | 6053925 DontGive

Is this a joke? If not, my 2cents:

Keep the original report. Record/note anything he says about it.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:26 | 6053944 Haus-Targaryen

Not a joke. 100% serious. You and I were sharing a brain wave length on that one. See my response above.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:34 | 6053956 GRDguy

Haus-Targaryen: Yu'all in good company.

"The men the American people admire most extravagantly are the greatest liars; the men [and women] they detest most violently are those who try to tell them the truth." H.L. Mencken (1880 – 1956)

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:34 | 6053962 corporatewhore

whistleblowers and corporate truth sayers aren't held in high regard in the corporate world. Save your ammo just to protect yourself.

=== Sat, 05/02/2015 - 14:28 | 6053949 Haus-Targaryen

Yeah I know. With good enough documentation, I'll be okay."

This kind of stuff was practically unthinkable prior to the rise of Generation-X in the 2000s, as I wrote in my 2008 article, "The nihilism and self-destructiveness of Generation X."

As readers know, I've frequently quoted "experts" on CNBC claiming that stocks are undervalued, even though stock valuations (the P/E ratio) is astronomically high. It's gotten so common that those guys really have no idea any more whether they're lying or telling the truth.

In the above comments, Haus-Targaryen writes, "Yeah I know. With good enough documentation, I'll be okay." This is very naïve. The comments make it very clear that Gen-Xers do not value the truth, and I know from painful experience and the experience of many others that if you can document the truth, then the Gen-Xers will really screw you. This guy had better keep his mouth shut and do what he's told, or he's going to be spending his days writing a blog. ZeroHedge

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 3-May-15 World View -- War in Syria turns more and more against al-Assad thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (3-May-2015) Permanent Link
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2-May-15 World View -- Russia and Vietnam agree to mutual defense cooperation pact to counter China

US requests access to Philippines military bases

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Vietnam buys cruise missiles from Russia to threaten China


Russian media cartoon depicting friendly Russia-Vietnam relations during 1965-75, when Vietnam beat the US in the Vietnam war (RBTH)
Russian media cartoon depicting friendly Russia-Vietnam relations during 1965-75, when Vietnam beat the US in the Vietnam war (RBTH)

Vietnam has purchased 50 (3M-14E Klub) supersonic cruise missiles from Russia, to be used in its fleet of (SSK Kilo-class diesel-electric) submarines.

There are two things about this deal. First, popular wisdom says that China and Russia are allies, but Russia is supplying China's enemy with advanced weapons. And second, the missiles can be used by Vietnam against Chinese ships and Chinese land targets. Vietnam is the first Southeast Asian nation to arm its submarine fleet with a land attack missile.

According to one analyst, the land-attack cruise missiles mark a "massive shift" advancing Vietnam's Navy's capabilities. "They’ve given themselves a much more powerful deterrent that complicates China’s strategic calculations."

As we've been reporting, China has been speeding up its military takeover of the South China Sea, using land reclamation projects to build military bases within territories that have historically belonged to other countries, particularly Vietnam and the Philippines. Vietnam and the Philippines have agreed to establish a strategic military partnership to counter China's belligerence. Vietnam last year announced that it will be purchasing several warships from India, and now Vietnam is taking another step, purchasing advanced cruise missiles from Russia.

The land-attack weapons are capable of precision strikes at a range of 300 km (190 miles). Beyond China's coastal cities, potential targets are the naval base at Sanya on China's Hainan Island, as well as any of the military bases that China is building on reclaimed land in the South China Sea. Reuters and Diplomat

China accuses Vietnam of 'double-dealing' with Russia, US

According to Chinese state media:

"China doesn't want territorial and maritime antagonism with Vietnam standing in the way of implementing [China's regional initiatives]. Vietnam should be roped into this grand vision.

From the angle of Hanoi, the ruling communist party is unwilling and unable to go to extremes and launch head-on challenge against China over territorial claims. Exercising restraints and giving a timely handshake will ease down the tensions in the South China Sea so that it won't risk a spillover effect affecting economic and political interests. Vietnam desires reconciliation more than China does.

Although led by communist parties, China and Vietnam lack political mutual trust. Both nations have historical animosities, but the major crux of the current distrust rests on the quandary caused by sovereignty-related issues. ...

[With regard to Vietnam's relations with Russia and the US], Hanoi is playing "double-dealer" without anyone who has its back, which might eventually put itself in danger."

China's concept that Vietnam might accept China's wonderful "grand vision" and ignore China's annexation of territories historically belonging to Vietnam is a fantasy of the highest order. People who write to me and give me logical reasons why China's vast military buildup doesn't mean that China is preparing a preemptive missile attack on the US should understand that China's massive state of denial is as bad as that of Washington and Brussels, and leads them to believe that they can easily win a war against anyone, including the US. This is not a rational belief, but an emotional fantasy belief, which is supported by many Chinese media reports that I've quoted over the years.

China clearly dislikes Russia's improved relationships with Vietnam, and accuses Russia of wanting to establish a base in Vietnam, which is probably true. In 2012, China called the relationship "unrighteous," and rebuked Russia for preferring to cooperate with “ill-doers” over nurturing a partnership with China. However, nothing in the Vietnam-Russia relationship is likely to deter China's accelerating military buildup in the South China Sea. Global Times (Beijing) and Jamestown

Russia and Vietnam agree to mutual defense cooperation pact to counter China

During the visit in early April of Russia's prime minister Dmitry Medvedev to Hanoi, the two countries approved a draft military cooperation pact formalizing bilateral defense cooperation. Although China wasn't mentioned directly in the pact, it's clear that China is the target.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is a logical turn of events. Russia and Vietnam have had a close relationship for decades, and it was Russian weapons that helped Vietnam win its war with the United States. On the other hand, Russia and China have centuries of hatreds and crisis wars between them, as do Vietnam and China. In fact, Russia and China were almost at war in the 1960s, while Vietnam and China actually were at war in the late 1970s.

The common wisdom is that Russia and China are natural allies, but nothing could be farther from the truth. It's true that Russia and China are the two countries today that are annexing other country's territories, as Hitler did in the late 1930s, and Russia and China support each other in the United Nations Security Council. But that relationship can be described as: "There's honor among thieves."

Russia recently signed a big energy deal with China to help bolster its economy, which is wracked by low oil prices and Western sanctions. However, many analysts have pointed out that this energy deal was a move of desperation by Russia, which was forced to agree to sell oil and gas to China at the lowest possible prices. So instead of being natural allies, Russia is desperately dependent on China.

Russia points outs that it is not a direct party to the territorial disputes in the South China Sea, but favors having the disputes adjudicated by the appropriate United Nations maritime courts, something that China rejects because it knows it would lose in court.

Russia's mutual defense agreement with Vietnam appears to be an attempt to counter-balance China's influence in the region, as well as Russia's own extreme economic dependence on China. Jamestown and Vietnam Net and Russia Beyond the Headlines

US requests access to Philippines military bases

The United States has asked for access to eight military bases in the Philippines to rotate troops, aircraft, and ships, to counter China's rapid military buildup in the South China Sea. These include bases in Subic and Clark, from which the Philippines ejected the US in 1992. Reuters

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 2-May-15 World View -- Russia and Vietnam agree to mutual defense cooperation pact to counter China thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (2-May-2015) Permanent Link
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1-May-15 World View -- US Navy will escort US-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz

Iran's ship seizure may be a message to Saudi Arabia

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Pakistan jails ten militants for Malala Yousafzai attack, but not prime suspect


Malala Yousafzai in Oslo in December 2014 (Reuters)
Malala Yousafzai in Oslo in December 2014 (Reuters)

A Pakistan court has jailed 10 Taliban militants for life for involvement in the attack on Malala Yousafzai. In 2012, Yousafzai was shot in attack by Pakistan's Taliban that raised international outrage. It's thought that the motive for the attack was Yousafzai's activism for girls' education in opposition to the views of the Taliban.

After the attack, Yousafzai was flown to the UK for treatment, where she fully recovered. She then won the Nobel Peace Prize and became an international spokesman for girls' education.

Pakistan was under international pressure to identify Yousafzai's attackers and bring them to justice. Thursday's announcement was apparently intended to satisfy those concerns.

However, instead of satisfying concerns, the announcement raised a number of new questions. The announcement did not say when and where the trial was held, when and where the ten men had been arrested, or how they were linked to the attack on Yousafzai. None of the ten men sentenced to jail participated in the actual shooting, but were allegedly linked in some way to plotting the shooting. The ten men did not include the principal suspects for the crime, nor the prime suspect Ataullah Khan, a 23-year-old militant, who is now suspected of hiding out in Afghanistan.

Many Pakistanis have mixed emotions about Yousafzai, just as they have mixed emotions about the Taliban. According to one analyst, "It may sound completely shocking, but many people are convinced that Malala is some kind of Western agent who was planted to disgrace Pakistan." The result is that many people see Thursday's convictions as a token verdict, a way for the government to say to its international audience that it's taking the terrorism problem seriously, but without taking an action strong enough to upset the Pakistani people. CBS News and BBC and Public Radio International

US Navy will escort US-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz

In a significant change in the US military posture in the Persian Gulf, the U.S. Navy warships will now accompany US-flagged commercial vessels that pass through the Strait of Hormuz. The follows two incidents in the last week, one on Friday where four Iranian patrol ships harassed a US-flagged cargo vessel, and one on Tuesday where Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) boarded the Maersk Tigris, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship and forced it into an Iranian port.

Iran's media have made unsubstantiated claims that the Maersk Tigris is a US-owned ship. In fact, it's actually owned and managed by Hamburg-based Rickmers Ship Management. However, since the ship sails under a Marshall Islands flag, it may be necessary for the US to defend the ship from Iran, under a 1983 defense treaty with the Marshall Islands. Iran is now claiming that the Maersk Tigris will be released when Iran receives restitution for some cargo that was lost in 2005.

According to US officials, the fear is that allowing Iran to continue to harass and board ships could lead to a major confrontation, and the hope is that by accompanying commercial ships, Iran will back down rather than confront.

At any rate, it seems that the new policy would not have made any difference to the Maersk Tigris, since it's not a US-flagged ship. CNN and Reuters

Iran's ship seizure may be a message to Saudi Arabia

The alleged commercial dispute that gave rise to Iran's seizure of the Maersk Tigris was ten years old, giving rise to the question of why Iran chose this particular time for the seizure. In fact, according to an analysis, it may be that this time was chosen as a signal to Saudi Arabia to the West to expect further maritime confrontations in the future.

One of the justifications that the US administration has been giving for making concession after concession after concession to Iran in the nuclear talks is the hope that Iran will completely change personality once the agreement is signed and the sanctions are lifted. In this fantasy, Iran starts cooperating with the West in Syria and helps bring the Houthis to heel in Yemen.

According to the analysis, the seizure of the Tigris is one of a series of signals that the opposite will happen: That once the agreement is signed, and the sanctions are lifted, Iran will be emboldened to adopt a more aggressive regional posture in the coming years — perhaps even rolling back to the pre-1996 era, when Iran and its proxies operated more actively against US interests in the Middle East, culminating in the Khobar Towers bombing against American troops in Saudi Arabia.

The US and Saudi Arabia have been sending their own messages to Iran, by setting up an air and sea blockade around Yemen to prevent Iran from delivering arms and supplies to the Houthis in Yemen. Just last week, a convoy of cargo ships from Iran had attempted to run the blockade, but was forced back by US naval ships. There was also an Iranian attempt to land a supply plane in the airport in Yemen's capital city Sanaa, and that attempt was also repelled. On that very same day, Iran boarded and seized the Maersk Tigris in the Strait of Hormuz.

With Iran provoking naval and aerial confrontations in the Persian Gulf and over and around Yemen, the possibility of an incident that spirals into a larger military confrontation grows every day. Farzin Nadimi, The Washington Institute For Near East Policy

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 1-May-15 World View -- US Navy will escort US-flagged ships through Strait of Hormuz thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (1-May-2015) Permanent Link
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30-Apr-15 World View -- 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war

Generational history of Hutu and Tutsi tribes

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war


Police clash with anti-Nkurunziza protesters in Burundi's capital city, Bujumbura (AFP)
Police clash with anti-Nkurunziza protesters in Burundi's capital city, Bujumbura (AFP)

Some 20,000 people from Burundi have sought refuge in neighboring Rwanda or Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC), potentially destabilizing the region. The violence is being triggered President Pierre Nkurunziza's decision to run for a third term in June. His opponents say that this violates the constitution, while Nkurunziza says that his first term doesn't count because he was appointed by the parliament, rather than being directly elected.

The police have been shooting bullets, tear gas and water cannon, and about ten people have been killed in four days of violence between youthful protesters and police. The government has blocked messaging services including Facebook, Whatsapp, Twitter and Tango, and some radio stations have been shut down.

Burundi's last generational crisis war occurred in 1994, when 300,000 people were killed in a civil war between ethnic Hutus and Tutsis.

Most people are familiar with the massive civil war between Hutus and Tutsis that occurred in Rwanda in 1994, killing close to a million people. A war in neighboring Burundi occurred at roughly the same time, though it was overshadowed by the Rwanda war.

Pierre Nkurunziza was a Hutu militia leader in the 1994 war. He was appointed president in 2005 according to the terms of a peace agreement, settling the 1994 civil war, and he ran unopposed and was reelected in 2010.

The 2005 agreement specified a power-sharing arrangement for Burundi's government, with a 60-40 split between Hutus and Tutsis, respectively. With the Hutus in control of the government for ten years, young Tutsis are now protesting Nkurunziza's decision to run for another five-year term. Many people fear a return to an all-out civil war, as in 1994, but Burundi is now in a generational Awakening era, so an all-out civil war is impossible, although periods of brief violence can occur at any time. AP and Radio France International and BBC

Generational history of Hutu and Tutsi tribes


Physical comparison of a Tutsi, Hutu and Twa (Mount Holyoke)
Physical comparison of a Tutsi, Hutu and Twa (Mount Holyoke)

There are numerous histories of the two tribes on the internet, and most of them seem to agree that the first indigenous tribe in what are now Rwanda and Burundi was the pigmy Twa tribe, who lived by hunting and gathering in forests.

It's not known where the Hutus came from, but they displaced the Twa from the 5th to the 11th century, who then moved farther into the forest.

Let me pause here to discuss the word "displaced." The internet histories almost make it seem like the Hutu came in, and the Twa said, "Hi Hutu! We'll just move further into the forest to make room for you!" In a couple of cases, the internet histories claim that all of these tribes lived together peacefully until the white man colonists came in the mid 1800s. This is typical of the worst of the moronic nonsense that you find on the internet.

If the Hutu "displaced" the Twa, it would have been done by a series of bloody, brutal generational crisis wars. And, like all generational crisis wars, they undoubtedly involved massacres, rape, slavery and torture. The Hutu were taller and stronger than the Twa, and they took advantage of their greater weight and strength to smash the Twa and take over their lands. The reason that we don't know about these wars, or about any wars prior to the mid 1800s colonization, is because no records were kept prior to the mid 1800s colonization.

The same story applies to the migration of the Tutsis from southern Ethiopia, starting in the 14th century. Once again, the Tutsis were taller and stronger than the Hutus, and there were undoubtedly a series of bloody, violent generational crisis wars that gave the Tutsis control over the Hutus.

In the history of almost any country, you'll find conflicts between farmers and herders. Farmers would be infuriated when herds of animals (such as cattle or camels) trampled their crops. They'd respond by building fences, and that infuriated the cowboys. There were numerous conflicts between farmers and cowboys in America in the 1800s.

But when the farmers and herders are from two different ethnic groups, then the conflicts over land use become the core triggers that lead from one generational crisis war to the next one. After a particularly bloody war, the survivors vow that nothing like that can ever happen again, so they set up rules to prevent it. In the case of farmers and herders, the farmers agree to set up pathways across their lands for the herders' animals to travel, and the herders agree to follow those pathways and not trample crops. But as decades pass, and younger generations grow up with no personal memory of the preceding crisis war, all the old agreements unravel, and there's a new generational crisis war 60-80 years after the end of the last one.

In the case of the generational crisis war currently going on in the Central African Republic, the Muslims are herders and the Christians are farmers. In the case of the Darfur crisis war, the Sudanese "Arabs" are herders and the "black Africans" are farmers.

In the case of the Hutus and Tutsis, the Hutus are farmers and the Tutsis are herders. In European terms, the Tutsis became the nobility, and the Hutus became the serfs. The relationship was called "ubuhake," which means "to work for access to land." The Tutsi herders controlled the land and the animal pathways. The Hutus were given access to the land and, in return, paid taxes to the Tutsis.

When the German colonists arrived in the late 1800s, they observed that the Tutsis were in charge and that the Hutus worked for the Tutsis, and the Germans implemented institutions to keep it that way. Germany colonized the region as German East Africa, which included today's Rwanda and Burundi. Some histories say that there was a eugenics angle to this, suggesting that the taller, stronger, lighter-skinned Tutsis were "more European" than the Hutus, and that they were therefore the "superior race," deserving of power and influence.

World War I was a generational crisis war for the Hutus and Tutsis, and when it ended, Germany lost control of German East Africa, with control given to Belgium in 1919. The Belgians continued to make the distinction between Tutsi and Hutu the basis of their colonial system. Finally, we have some records of what was going on, and we can see a typical generational Awakening era beginning in the 1930s, with the major event being a large Hutu revolt in 1934 in Ndora, a Rwanda farming community populated mainly by Hutu people.

What almost always happens in a country between generational crisis civil wars is that the two groups become peaceful at the climax of the first crisis war, but starting 15-20 years later, the youth from the first post-war generation start rioting and committing intermittent acts of violence. There follows decades of periods of violence alternating with "peace agreements." Each new period of violence is worse than the previous one.

By the 1960s, the periods of ethnic violence between the Hutus and the Tutsis were becoming chaotic. In July 1962, the two countries Rwanda and Burundi were formed, with Rwanda being a mostly Hutu nation, and Burundi being a mostly Tutsi nation. In December 1963, several hundred Tutsi guerrillas entered southern Rwanda from Burundi. The Rwandans referred to all Tutsis as "cockroaches," and the Rwandan army eliminate the intruders. Within days, some 14,000 Tutsis were massacred in southern Rwanda, in a coordinated campaign described by Bertrand Russell as 'the most horrible and systematic massacre' since the Holocaust.

Violence and peace agreements continued to alternate. In 1993, Rwanda's president Juvénal Habyarimana signed a peace agreement with Tutsi leaders known as the "Arusha accords," having been signed in Arusha, Tanzania.

The Arusha accords were never implemented. On April 6, 1994, a plane crash killed both Burundi's president Cyprien Ntayamira and Rwanda's president Juvénal Habyarimana. It's believed that the plane was shot down by a missile, with the Hutus and Tutsis blaming each other for the missile. That plane crash triggered the massive genocidal war between the Hutus and the Tutsis, killing 300,000 people in Burundi and close to a million people in Rwanda.

In 2005, new "Arusha Accords" were signed, this time by the people of Burundi, to settle the 1994 war. Those accords resulted in the creation of the 60-40 government of Hutus and Tutsis, respectively, and the selection of former Hutu militia leader Pierre Nkurunziza as president for two terms. His recent announcement that he will run for a third term has triggered new violence between Hutus and Tutsis.

Today, there are fears of a major new war between the Hutus and the Tutsis, but that's impossible at this time, because the countries are in a generational Awakening era. There will, of course, be outbreaks of ethnic violence, alternating with peace agreements, but nothing like the massive war that occurred in 1994. Burundi - Conflict Profile and A History of Hutu-Tutsi Conflict and History of Hutu – Tutsi Relations and UPenn - Burundi history History of Rwanda

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 30-Apr-15 World View -- 20,000 refugees flee violence in Burundi, fearing Hutu-Tutsi war thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (30-Apr-2015) Permanent Link
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29-Apr-15 World View -- Iran seizes cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz

Greece's PM Tsipras desperately seeks financial crisis solution

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Iran seizes cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz


Iranian army troops wearing ghillie camouflage suits in a parade in Tehran (CNN)
Iranian army troops wearing ghillie camouflage suits in a parade in Tehran (CNN)

Iran's Islamic Revolution Guards Corps Navy (IRGCN) has been taking actions in the Strait of Hormuz described as "provocative" towards commercial ships under US protection.

In Friday's incident, four Iranian patrol ships surrounded the Maersk Kensington, a US-flagged cargo vessel, in the Strait of Hormuz. The patrol ships harassed the Kensington for a while, and then backed off.

In Tuesday's incident, IRGCN patrol boats fired shots at a commercial cargo vessel passing through the Strait of Hormuz, and then forcibly boarded the ship and directed it to an Iranian port. The vessel was the Maersk Tigris, a Marshall Islands-flagged ship.

In my World View article yesterday on the US defense agreement with Japan, I provided a list of countries with which the US has a mutual defense treaty: Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, the ANZUS agreement with Australia and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement with all of Europe.

Well, today I have to add one more to the list: The Marshall Islands. According to the State Department:

"The Republic of the Marshall Islands (RMI) is a sovereign nation. While the government is free to conduct its own foreign relations, it does so under the terms of the Compact. The United States has full authority and responsibility for security and defense of the Marshall Islands, and the Government of the Marshall Islands is obligated to refrain from taking actions that would be incompatible with these security and defense responsibilities. The United States and the Marshall Islands have full diplomatic relations. Marshallese citizens may work and study in the United States without a visa, and they join the U.S. military at a higher rate than any U.S. state."

The Marshall Islands is group of hundreds of islands northeast of Australia in the Pacific Ocean. It hosts the US Army Kwajalein Atoll (USAKA) Reagan Missile Test Site, a key installation in the US missile defense network.

The US Navy is monitoring the situation, but currently plans no further action. The U.S. believes that Iranians will "send the ship on its way," according to an official.

It's not known why Iran seized the Tigris, though press reports give a partial explanation that "the ship owner had some long-standing overdue payments that it had to settle" with an Iranian company.

These incidents come at a time when there are concerns about a possible naval confrontation in the Gulf of Aden between US ships and Iranian warships attempting to supply weapons to Houthis in Yemen.

They also come at a time when the US and the West are close to completing a nuclear agreement with Iran that would result in the lifting of all sanctions, possibly immediately. The US administration has made one concession after another to Iran so that the agreement will be consummated, and it may be that the administration is playing down the recent naval incidents in order to avoid provoking a crisis that might scuttle the nuclear deal. US State Dept. and CNN and Fars (Tehran) and Defense One

Greece's PM Tsipras desperately seeks financial crisis solution

Greece's prime minister Alexis Tsipras telephoned Germany's chancellor Angela Merkel on Sunday evening, and reports indicate that Tsipras begged for mercy. Without an additional bailout loan, Greece will go bankrupt in about a month. It's believed that going bankrupt will force Greece to leave the eurozone and return to the drachma currency.

On Monday, Tsipras fired his colorful finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, who attended Friday's Eurogroup meeting of eurozone finance ministers, and was accused of being a time-waster, a gambler and an amateur.

No solution exists for Greece's financial crisis, and yet a way has always been found for the Greeks and the Europeans to postpone the final reckoning, "kicking the can down the road." The Europeans are now desperately looking for one more postponement, but positions have become so hardened that even a temporary solution may be impossible.

Tsipras's far-left Syriza party won January's election by promising that he would not allow any more austerity measures to be imposed on Greece. The Europeans have said that Greece will not get any more bailout money without committing to a list of reforms that address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies.

Putting such a list in writing would violate Tsipras's campaign promises. Not putting it in writing violates Tsipras's promises to the Europeans.

On Tuesday, Tsipras tried a different approach: if the Europeans insisted on further austerity measures, then he would call a referendum to see if the Greek people accept the austerity measures. This appears to be a final desperate gasp, since there isn't enough time for a national referendum, and even if one was held, it wouldn't resolve the impasse with Europe.

So even a temporary kick-the-can solution would require a major climbdown by one side or the other, and it wouldn't buy much time anyway. Reuters and Kathimerini and Deutsche Welle

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 29-Apr-15 World View -- Iran seizes cargo vessel in the Strait of Hormuz thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (29-Apr-2015) Permanent Link
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28-Apr-15 World View -- US reaffirms defense of Japan's Senkaku Islands

Japan-U.S. military guidelines will include 'collective self-defense'

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

US reaffirms defense of Japan's Senkaku Islands


John Kerry and Shinzo Abe in Boston on Sunday
John Kerry and Shinzo Abe in Boston on Sunday

A day before Japan's prime minister Shinzo Abe visits president Barack Obama in the White House, Secretary of State John Kerry reaffirmed that a treaty that the United States and Japan signed in 1960 requires the United States to defend the Senkaku Islands from an attack by China.

According to Kerry, "Commitment to Japan's security remains ironclad and covers all territories under Japan's administration, including the Senkaku islands."

There has been some concern in Asia whether the Obama administration would honor America's defense treaties. This concern increased substantially after Obama's flip-flop on Syria, declaring that use of chemical weapons would be a "game changer," and then backing off once Syria's president Bashar al-Assad killed hundreds of people with Sarin gas.

After World War II, America signed a large number of mutual defense treaties with other countries. These include agreements with Japan, South Korea, Israel, Taiwan, the Philippines, the ANZUS agreement with Australia and New Zealand, a special treaty with Iceland, and the NATO agreement with all of Europe.

Many people have questioned whether the administration would honor these mutual defense treaties during an actual attack. Kerry's statement was meant to reassure the Japanese.

China has been claiming huge territories in the South China Sea and East China Sea that have historically belonged to other countries. Almost no one outside of China believes that China's claims are valid, and China is refusing to submit the claims to the United Nations for adjudication, knowing that it would lose.

In the South China Sea, China is in the midst of a massive military buildup, as we recently described. However, China has moved more cautiously with the Senkakus (called Diaoyu by the Chinese), knowing that a military assault on the Senkakus could provoke a direct military confrontation with the United States. AFP

Japan-U.S. military guidelines will include 'collective self-defense'

Since the end of World War II, Japan and the United States have had mutual defense treaties. However, Japan's constitution after WW II has been a "pacifist" constitution, prohibiting any military action except in response to a direct attack on Japan itself. This meant that the mutual defense treaty was pretty much a one-way affair, in that the U.S. was committed to defending Japan, but Japan could not defend the U.S.

Prime minister Shinzo Abe has stated that he wants to remove this restriction from the constitution, but amending the constitution would be a difficult process, and there are many people in Japan who would strongly oppose the change.

So in 2014, Abe made a unilateral political decision to "reinterpret" the self-defense clause of the constitution to allow for what is called "collective self-defense." I discussed this issue in detail in "5-May-14 World View -- Japan debates 'collective self-defense' to protect America and Japan".

Under international law, if a nation's ally is attacked by another country, then the nation may use its armed forces in defense of its ally. This is known as "collective self-defense," and it particularly can be invoked by either of two countries that have a mutual defense agreement, such as the mutual defense agreement signed by Japan and the United States. However, many people in Japan interpret the constitution's self-defense restriction to mean that collective self-defense is prohibited in Japan's constitution. Abe's reinterpretation makes collective self-defense possible.

The new guidelines between Japan and the U.S. will explicitly state that collective self-defense is allowed for both countries. Kyodo News (Japan) and Japan News

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 28-Apr-15 World View -- US reaffirms defense of Japan's Senkaku Islands thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (28-Apr-2015) Permanent Link
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27-Apr-15 World View -- China extends its military buildup with Pakistan

Air strikes, naval shelling and ground fighting escalate in Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

The China - Pakistan love story


Xi Jinping and Nawaz Sharif on Tuesday in Islamabad (AP)
Xi Jinping and Nawaz Sharif on Tuesday in Islamabad (AP)

China's president Xi Jinping made a "historic" visit to Pakistan early last week to visit prime minister Nawaz Sharif and to sign strategic military and economic agreements between the two countries.

As the visit began, an essay by Xi appeared in Pakistan's press describing the love affair between the two countries:

"This will be my first trip to Pakistan, but I feel as if I am going to visit the home of my own brother. Over the years, thanks to the nurturing of generations of leaders and people from all sectors of both countries, China-Pakistan friendship has flourished like a tree growing tall and strong. No matter how the circumstances in our two countries, the region and the world change, our bilateral relations have enjoyed sound and steady growth. We have always respected, understood and supported each other on issues concerning our respective core interests. In Pakistan, our relationship is poetically hailed as a friendship “higher than mountains, deeper than oceans and sweeter than honey.” In China, Pakistan is known as a sincere and reliable friend. Obviously, China-Pakistan friendship is deeply felt in the hearts of our two peoples."

In May 2011, Pakistan's ambassador to China Masood Khan described the relationship between Pakistan and China as "higher than mountains, deeper than oceans, stronger than steel, sweeter than honey, and dearer than eyesight."

It sounds like true love to me. Daily Times (Pakistan) and Dawn (Pakistan)

China extends its military buildup with Pakistan

Following last week's visit by China's president Xi Jinping, China will deliver another 50 JF-17 Thunder aircraft to Pakistan over a period of three years. 60 of these aircraft have already been delivered, making a total of 110. The jets are considered a symbol of friendship between Pakistan and China, because the technology was developed jointly by the two countries.

This comes at a time of an accelerating military buildup by the Chinese and their ally Pakistan. China is annexing other countries' territories in the South China Sea, and is aggressively building military bases in those territories. China is building the Gwadar Port military naval base in Pakistan on the Indian Ocean, where they can launch missile attacks on America's base in Diego Garcia and on American military bases and aircraft carriers in the Mideast. And China agreed last week to build a railroad line from western China, through Pakistan to the Gwadar Port base, to be used for both commerce and military transport. The News (Pakistan) and Want China Times (Taiwan) and Daily Times (Pakistan)

Air strikes, naval shelling and ground fighting escalate in Yemen

It's been just a week since Saudi Arabia announced that it's met its military objectives in Yemen, that "Operation Decisive Storm" was ending, and "Operation Restoration of Hope" was beginning.

On Sunday, the Saudi-led coalition pounded several cities with airstrikes, including the capital city Sanaa. There was heavy street fighting, and relentless artillery, tank and heavy machine gun fire through Taiz, Yemen's third largest city. Naval warships and airstrikes pounded Yemen's second largest city, the port city of Aden.

Iran continues to keep a fleet of warships in the Gulf of Aden, raising concerns that Iran is supplying weapons to the Houthis. Reuters and AP

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 27-Apr-15 World View -- China extends its military buildup with Pakistan thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (27-Apr-2015) Permanent Link
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26-Apr-15 World View -- Greece's government will confiscate cash reserves from all public institutions

Vietnam and the Philippines establish a strategic military partnership to counter China

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Greece's government will confiscate cash reserves from all public institutions


The Hellenic Parliament building, where a decree was adopted to confiscate cash reserves of Greece's public institutions
The Hellenic Parliament building, where a decree was adopted to confiscate cash reserves of Greece's public institutions

After a bitter debate, Greece's parliament on Friday adopted a decree ordering all public institutions to hand over their cash reserves to the central bank.

This means that everything from municipalities and provinces to state universities will have to give up all the spare cash in their bank accounts. 1,400 public institutions will be handing over their reserves.

The money will be used to cover "the state's urgent needs, which amount to three billion euros over the next 15 days." The government estimates the decree will raise some 1.5 billion euros, but local media have put the figure at around 400 million euros.

Mayors, labor unions and college directors have been complaining bitterly about the decree. According to one public sector labor union leader, "It is unjust and unacceptable for the state to manage municipalities' funds." Kathimerini and AFP and Reuters

Greece's people face the future with anxiety and dread

Some individual people can face the future realistically, even when it's obvious that the future is going to be bad.

But when you talk about entire populations of people or generations of people, self-delusion is the rule. The British ignored the Nazis' military buildup. America ignored the real estate bubble in the mid-2000s decade, and they're ignoring China's military buildup today. Actually, "ignored" is the wrong word. In each case, they deluded themselves into believing what was obviously true was not.

Ever since the Greek financial crisis began in the 2010, I've been writing that no solution exists, and that one day Greece will be forced into financial bankruptcy. Honestly, I thought it would have happened before now, but I underestimated the depth and extent of the self-delusion that not only the Greek people but also the European politicians would inflict on themselves and each other. In the course of writing about the Greek crisis over the past five years, some of the unbelievably ridiculous things that I've quoted from European officials have been truly astounding.

But at some point, reality overcomes self-delusion. And it seems to be the case that that point is being reached right now.

Friday's Eurogroup meeting of the eurozone's finance ministers was behind closed doors but was a verbal slugfest, descending into acrimony and name-calling, according to reports. Greece's finance minister, Yanis Varoufakis, who is an expert on game theory, was accused of being a time-waster, a gambler and an amateur. German Chancellor Angela Merkel had to call for calm.

After the meeting, Eurogroup chairman Jeroen Dijsselbloem said flatly that there will be no money given to Greece unless and until Varoufakis produces a list of committed reforms that he promised in February. The list would need to address various economic issues, including Greece's bloated public sector, curbing tax evasion and corruption, privatizing public businesses, and adjusting generous pension and minimum wage policies. Varoufakis has repeatedly promised that the list would be provided in a few days, and now the other finance ministers have apparently concluded that he's a charlatan.

The Greek people are watching all this with a mixture of dread, shock and foreboding. Polls indicate that over 70% of them want Greece to remain in the eurozone, but they see it all slipping away. Self-delusion is giving way to reality.

It's not just the name-calling at the Eurogroup. The Greek people have seen news stories that the government will be running out of money in a couple of weeks, and will paying salaries and pensions in IOUs. And now they hear that the government will be confiscating any available cash held by local governments and state organizations.

They fear their savings will be next. Anyone who can move their money out of a Greek bank into a foreign bank is doing so. Undoubtedly, a lot of people's mattresses are also being filled up with their life savings.

According to one communist MP:

"Even if there is a temporary solution it will not solve our problems. Our country produces nothing. Its manufacturing base has been destroyed, it is de-industrialised and agriculturally deserted. What lies ahead is great, great hardship."

When even the communists give up their delusions, you know that reality is really taking hold.

A word of warning. When a population turns from self-delusion to reality, they find someone to blame, and sometimes they do dangerous things, like turn fascist or start a war. We've seen nothing like that in Greece so far, but if things get extremely desperate, then the climate could change quickly. Guardian (London) and Bloomberg and Kathimerini

China speeds up its military takeover of the South China Sea

High-resolution satellite images reveal that in the space of ten weeks, China has built an artificial island on top of Subi Reef in the Spratly Islands group, with the apparent intention of building a runway that could support virtually all types of combat and supply aircraft in China’s navy and air force.

This is only one of three massive land reclamation projects that China is pursuing to establish military bases in the South China Sea.

China continues to occupy regions in the South China Sea that have historically belonged to other countries, and continues a massive military to enforce its seizures. China has claimed the entire South China Sea, including regions historically belonging to Vietnam, Brunei, Malaysia, Indonesia, Taiwan and the Philippines. China's claims are rejected by almost everyone outside of China, and China refuses to submit them to the United Nations court deciding such matters, apparently knowing that they would lose.

Lacking legal authority, what we're seeing is a frenzied military buildup in the South China Sea with a speed, scale and intensity that have few or no parallels in history outside of wartime. Diplomat

Vietnam and the Philippines establish a strategic military partnership to counter China

The Philippines and Vietnam have had minimal strategic military ties. But the two countries are responding to China's military buildup and belligerence in the South China Sea by establishing a "Strategic Partnership between the Republic of the Philippines and the Socialist Republic of Vietnam," with the agreement to be signed in May or June. Under the agreement, the two countries will conduct joint naval drills and scientific studies in the South China Sea, defying China's claims. They committed to resolve differences in a "constructive manner without resorting to the threat or use of force." Philippine Star and Council on Foreign Relations

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 26-Apr-15 World View -- Greece's government will confiscate cash reserves from all public institutions thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (26-Apr-2015) Permanent Link
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25-Apr-15 World View -- Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli

The politics of genocide and rape -- in Turkey and elsewhere

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli


British soldiers just before landing at Gallipoli in 1915
British soldiers just before landing at Gallipoli in 1915

There are so many bizarre things going on in the world today, and this one has to be near the top of the list.

For Turkey, Australia and New Zealand, the most important battle of World War I was the Battle of Gallipoli, which ran from April 25, 1915, to January 9, 1916. Turkey has commemorated the battle in the past on April 25.

According to Armenia, Turkey (the Ottoman Empire) committed a genocide against Armenians, and the genocide began on April 24, 1915, when the Young Turks government began deporting Armenians. Turkey denies that there was a genocide. Armenia has scheduled a centennial commemoration of the start of the deportations for next month on April 24.

In view of Armenia's genocide commemoration, Turkey has moved its Gallipoli commemoration to April 24 as well, so that the two commemorations compete with one another.

So on Friday there were two dueling centennial commemorations: The Battle of Gallipoli was commemorated in Istanbul, the capital city of Turkey, while the Armenian genocide was commemorated in Yerevan, the capital city of Armenia. Daily Sabah (Istanbul)

Turkey commemorates the 100th anniversary of Anzac day and the Battle of Gallipoli

"Anzac" is the acronym for Australian and New Zealand Army Corps, and April 24 is commemorated every year in Australia and New Zealand as Anzac Day, the first day of the Battle of Gallipoli. Australia had only become an independent nation in 1901, and New Zealand in 1907, so these were very young nations, anxious to prove themselves to the world.

Here's a summary of the Battle of Gallipoli:

350,000 British troops, 25,000 died
79,000 French troops, 10,000 died
74,000 Anzac troops, 10,000 died
400,000 Turkish troops, 86,000 died

The Battle of Gallipoli was pretty much a disaster for all sides, but it's still remembered as a major turning point in the history of Australia and New Zealand. The character of these two nations was forever shaped by this experience. BBC

Turkey debates its role in the Armenian genocide

At the same time that Turkey was fighting the British, Irish, Australians and Kiwis at the Battle of Gallipoli, Turkey, which is a Muslim nation, was also in a war with Russia, which is an Orthodox Christian nation, in the Caucasus region.

Turkey (as the Ottoman Empire) and Russia were previously in a generational crisis war with the Crimean War of the 1850s. That war was extremely bloody and a disaster for Turkey, and so now they were fighting again, and nothing mattered to Turkey at this time than the continued existence of Turkey and its way of life.

Armenians also are Orthodox Christian, and some 2 million of them were living in Turkey at the time of World War I. To the leaders of Turkey at the time, the Armenians living in Turkey were an existential threat to Turkey, and a decision was made to "remove" all the Armenians living in eastern Turkey.

On April 24, 1915, the Young Turks government of Turkey arrested and executed several hundred Armenian intellectuals. After that, ordinary Armenians were turned out of their homes and sent on death marches through the Mesopotamian desert without food or water. Frequently, the marchers were stripped naked and forced to walk under the scorching sun until they dropped dead. People who stopped to rest were shot. In other cases killing squads or "butcher battalions" drowned Armenians in rivers, threw them off cliffs, and burned them alive. The Turkish countryside was littered with Armenian corpses.

Turkey generally agrees that many Armenians died at the time, but they claim that the atrocities were not part of any organized plan. Furthermore they point to the fact that some 2.5 million Turkish Muslims also lost their lives during World War I.

As a result, Turkey has always denied that what happened in 1915 was a genocide. However, it's worth noting that this opinion is not unanimous in Turkey, and many Turks believe that they should just concede that a genocide occurred in order to defuse the issue and move on. History.com and Hurriyet (Istanbul) and Der Spiegel (Germany)

The politics of genocide and rape -- in Turkey and elsewhere

As in the case of the word "rape," I'm pretty cynical about the use of the word "genocide."

Some of the bloodiest genocides of the 20th century were perpetrated by Great Socialist or Communist leaders -- Stalin in Ukraine in the Holodomor in the 1930s, Mao Zedong in China's Great Leap Forward in the 1950s, Pol Pot in the Killing Fields of Cambodia in the 1970s -- without a peep from liberals.

This became clear to me in 1975, when far-left liberal feminist Jane Fonda and far-left "anti-war" liberal John Kerry (currently Secretary of State) approved of the massive slaughter of millions of Cambodians by Great Socialist Leader Pol Pot. Fonda and Kerry couldn't have cared less how many people starved or tortured, had their fingernails pulled or eyes gouged out, as long as it was done by a socialist. And this was a decade after college kids were carrying copies of the "Little Red Book of Chairman Mao" while Chairman Mao was massacring tens of millions of people.

The same kind of thing is true of rape. When Bill Clinton was credibly charged in the late 1990s of raping several women, it became clear that ultra-feminist liberal rape victim Susan Estrich couldn't have cared less how many women Clinton had raped. The same was true of his wife, Hillary Clinton. These days, ultra-feminist rape activists couldn't care less how many women were raped by the sleazy Julian Assange, who has been hiding out in the Ecuador embassy in London to avoid facing rape charges.

So I mention all that to make clear how cynical I am about these kinds of charges. They have absolutely no meaning except to be used hypocritically as a political weapon, and generally have no relationship to the truth.

So now let's turn to whether the deaths of a million Armenians in Turkey in 1915 can be classified as "genocide."

First off, the legal definition of genocide can't apply, because genocide wasn't a "crime" until 1948, and the slaughter occurred in 1915. In fact, the word "genocide" didn't even exist in 1915. It was only invented in the 1940s, in reaction to the Nazi Holocaust.

But let's ignore all that, and apply the legal definition of genocide to 1915 Turkey. Here's the first part of the legal definition in the "Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide" adopted by the United Nations in 1948:

"Article I

The Contracting Parties confirm that genocide, whether committed in time of peace or in time of war, is a crime under international law which they undertake to prevent and to punish.

Article II

In the present Convention, genocide means any of the following acts committed with intent to destroy, in whole or in part, a national, ethnical, racial or religious group, as such:

  • Killing members of the group;
  • Causing serious bodily or mental harm to members of the group;
  • Deliberately inflicting on the group conditions of life calculated to bring about its physical destruction in whole or in part;
  • Imposing measures intended to prevent births within the group;
  • Forcibly transferring children of the group to another group.

Article III

The following acts shall be punishable:

  • Genocide;
  • Conspiracy to commit genocide;
  • Direct and public incitement to commit genocide;
  • Attempt to commit genocide;
  • Complicity in genocide.

Article IV

Persons committing genocide or any of the other acts enumerated in article III shall be punished, whether they are constitutionally responsible rulers, public officials or private individuals."

So, if we apply this definition, then it's clear that the Armenian Genocide was indeed a genocide. The Young Turks government deported millions of Armenians, subjecting them to starvation, exhaustion and death. This easily complies with the UN definition.

However, so do a lot of other things. I point to the Allied firebombing of Dresden and Tokyo, and the use of nuclear weapons on Japanese cities at the end of World War II as examples of mass slaughter that also clearly fit the UN definition of genocide.

Generational Dynamics has its own definition of genocide that differs slightly (though not significantly) from the United Nations definition. And acts of genocide are crucial in understanding how a society or nation goes from one generational crisis war to the next.

During a generational crisis war, like World War II for America, the value of an individual human life gets smaller and smaller, and the only thing that matters is the survival of the society and its way of life. Every crisis war ends in some variation of what is called "an explosive genocidal climax," where the value of an individual human life is effectively zero, and nothing matters except winning the war at any cost. At that time, the war can end with a mass slaughter that's regretted for decades.

After the war ends, the winners write the history of what happened, and decide which actions (the losers' actions) were genocidal and which were not (the winners' actions). However there is something that the survivors of both the winning and losing side agree on: What happened is so horrible that it must never be permitted to happen again. And I emphasize that both the winners and losers feel the same way about this. And so they create austere rules and institutions to prevent it from happening again.

This leads to a generational Awakening era (like America in the 1960s), where the young post-war generations reject their parents' austere rules and institutions, and the value of an individual human life becomes paramount again. This leads to a generational Unraveling era, like America in the 1990s, where all the austere rules and institutions completely unravel. Finally, the society enters a new generational Crisis era, as America did in the early 2000s. All the survivors from the previous crisis war are gone (retired or dead), and there's no one left who remembers the horrors of the previous genocidal climax, or who vowed never to let it happen again. And then it does happen again. History.com and UN Convention on the Prevention and Punishment of the Crime of Genocide

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 25-Apr-15 World View -- Turkey, Armenia hold dueling WW1 centennials over genocide and Gallipoli thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (25-Apr-2015) Permanent Link
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24-Apr-15 World View -- Europe pledges to solve the unsolvable migrant problem

The flood of farmer suicides continues to grow in India

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

The flood of farmer suicides continues to grow in India


Gajendra Singh's suicide note (Indian Express)
Gajendra Singh's suicide note (Indian Express)

On Thursday, a farmer in India's Uttar Pradesh, near Delhi, committed suicide by consuming pesticide. He had suffered crop losses due to bad weather.

Just one day earlier, Gajendra Singh, a farmer, had committed suicide by hanging himself from a tree in the middle of a crowded anti-government political rally. The farmer left a suicide note:

"My father has thrown me out of house as my entire crop had been destroyed. I have three children. ... Please tell me, how do I go home.

Jai Jawan, Jai Kisan."

The last line means "Hail the soldier, hail the farmer." It's a slogan from the 1960s, when India was facing two simultaneous crises -- war with Pakistan, and a severe shortage of food.

The farmer killed himself in support of the political rally, whose purpose was to protest proposed changes by prime minister Narendra Modi to India's Land Acquisition law. The proposed changes will, in many circumstances, allow the government to take a farmer's land without his consent, without concern for the social impact, and with reduced compensation.

However, the Land Acquisition law is not the principal cause of farmer suicides. The principal cause is the weather.

Whether it's India's historically severe drought in 2012, or the historically high abundance of rainfall and hail so far this year, India's crops depend on the weather. This year, cotton farmers are hit with a double whammy: The crop was good last year, so cotton prices are low, while this year's crops have been adversely affected by the weather. So farmers have a small crop to sell at low prices.

A poor crop means that the farmer cannot repay his debts or feed his family. According to one widow, "He was in so much debt. He wasn't getting any money from cotton. He chose death over distress."

There has been a recent wave of 40 farmer suicides. Over 600 farmers have committed suicide so far this year. There are thousands or tens of thousands of farmer suicides every year. Government data shows 11,772 farmers committed suicide in 2013 across India, which is 44 deaths every day. Indian Express and Economic Times (India) and DNA India and CNN and New Delhi TV

Europe pledges to solve the unsolvable migrant problem

Estimates range from 500,000 to 1 million for the number of migrants who have come from other countries to Libya, waiting for their turn to travel to Europe. Analysts expect around 200,000 of them to reach EU this year. They spend thousands of dollars -- their life savings -- to be put on a rubber dinghy or rickety boat to be allowed to cross the Mediterranean Sea, counting on being saved by someone if the boat gets into trouble as many do.

However, some 1600 migrants have died crossing the Mediterranean in the last couple of weeks, and this forced the EU to hold an emergency meeting in Brussels on Thursday to find a solution.

One outcome of the meeting was that EU leaders pledged 120 million euros annually to redeploy a search and rescue program similar to the "Mare Nostrum" program that that Italy funded on its own until November of last year, and which rescued over 200,000 migrants last year. However, that was the easy decision, especially because there are some restrictions and because it's not clear that all the money will be funded.

On the other hand, there are several problems that were not solved:

Even if the ports could be blocked or all the boats could be confiscated, there would still be a crisis in Libya with hundreds of thousands of migrants waiting to travel to Europe. Even worse, the crisis would turn to violence because the traffickers will do anything to continue extracting thousands of dollars from each migrant.

With warm weather approaching, the height of the migrant season is just beginning. It's safe to assume that Thursdays meeting in Brussels will have done nothing to solve the problem. Middle East Eye and Catholic Online and Bloomberg

Eritrea: The most repressive regime in the world

Even worse than North Korea or Iran, the African state of Eritrea is considered by many to be the most repressive country in the world. And it's also second only to war-torn Syria as the leading country from which EU-bound migrants originate. In fact, all the corpses found during the night after the shipwreck off the coast of Lampedusa last week were Eritrean.

Eritrea has one of the poorest human rights records in the world. Anyone can be arrested and tortured at any time on the unsupported charge of criticizing someone in the government, or for attending the wrong religious institution. The Committee to Protect Journalists (CPJ) has labeled it the "most censored" country in the world. (The next nine are: North Korea, Saudi Arabia, Ethiopia, Azerbaijan, Vietnam, Iran, China, Burma, and Cuba.)

What is unique about Eritrea is the extent of military repression as practiced through a strictly-enforced conscription regimen and martial culture. Eritrea’s army is about 600,000 strong, which is one tenth of the population of about 6 million. Few countries anywhere, other than North Korea or the Cambodia of the Khmer Rouge, have one tenth of their population in the army. Some people are forced to serve in the armed forces until age 50.

Many people are forced to work at government jobs essentially as slaves. The average monthly salary is $12. If someone escapes to Europe as a migrant to earn money, the remittances that the migrant sends back to his family are heavily taxed by the state.

Like many African countries, Eritrea has a "youth bulge" in its population. Many of these young men and women are not satisfied with living in the most repressive nation in the world, and they're willing to make any sacrifice or take any risk to reach Europe and a better life. Thursday's EU meeting in Brussels will have no effect on that. Geopolitical Monitor and Telegraph and Guardian (Nov-2014) and Foreign Policy

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 24-Apr-15 World View -- Europe pledges to solve the unsolvable migrant problem thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (24-Apr-2015) Permanent Link
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23-Apr-15 World View -- Palestinian factions 'unity' talks in crisis, near collapse

ISIS and Yemen force yet another realignment of the Mideast

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Palestinian factions 'unity' talks in crisis, near collapse


Top officials of the Palestinian 'unity government' as of June 2, 2014 (AFP)
Top officials of the Palestinian 'unity government' as of June 2, 2014 (AFP)

A five-day meeting in Gaza between the two major Palestinian factions ended in crisis after just one day on Wednesday, once again bringing into question whether there can ever be a Palestinian "unity government."

The two-state solution to the Mideast crisis that everyone talks about is usually described as a State of Palestine existing side-by-side with a State of Israel in peace and harmony.

As I wrote in May 2003 in "Mideast Roadmap - Will it bring peace?", referring to President George Bush's proposed peace plan, no peace plan can work because Generational Dynamics predicts that Arabs and Jews would be refighting the 1948 war that followed the partitioning of Palestine and the creation of the state of Israel.

So it's no surprise that, once again, unity talks between the two major Palestinian factions that are a prerequisite to a State of Palestine are collapsing.

The Palestinian Authority (PA/Fatah) used to govern both Palestinian territories, the Gaza Strip and the West Bank but after Hamas took control of Gaza in 2007, leading to a bitter war between the two factions, it's been pretty clear that a successful peace treaty between Hamas and Fatah has been even less like likely than a peace treaty between the Palestinians and the Israelis.

On April 23 of last year, the two major Palestinian factions signed a "Palestinian unity agreement," as a prerequisite to forming a State of Palestine. The agreement provided for a series of steps to unify the two factions into a common government, but now, a year later, nothing has changed.

The unity agreement never really had a chance, but whatever chance it had was destroyed by the summer war between Israel and Hamas. The war was a disaster and humiliation for Hamas, which launched thousands of missiles at Israel without a single one ever drawing blood, thanks to Israel's Iron Dome missile defense system. In the end, Egypt, the PA and Israel imposed a cease-fire on Hamas that met not a single one of Hamas's demands. There were supposed to be follow-on talks to negotiate terms for ending the blockade of Gaza being imposed by both Israel and Egypt, but those talks never started.

This last week, a ministerial delegation from the PA in the West Bank visit Hamas in the Gaza Strip, so that the two groups could negotiate plans for how the unity government was going to pay the salaries of the public employees in Gaza.

There are two sides to the story of what happened next: Hamas claims that the PA delegation went to their hotel rooms and refused to leave. The PA claims that the delegation went to their hotel rooms and were prevented from leaving by Hamas. Either way, they didn't leave their hotel rooms, and the meeting ended in bitter discord within one day, making it appear very likely that the entire unity government concept is near collapse. AFP and Xinhua and Times of Israel

ISIS and Yemen force yet another realignment of the Mideast

Not only did the Gaza war really end the Hamas/Fatah unity government, it split the entire Mideast into two large factions. In a major realignment, Israel plus Egypt plus the Palestinian Authority plus Saudi Arabia were allied, versus Hamas plus Qatar plus Turkey. In addition, Iran has been supplying money and heavy weapons to Hamas.

However, since the end of the Gaza war, two major events have shaken the Mideast and is forcing the old realignment to be replaced by a new realignment. The two events are:

In this sectarian environment, a new realignment has been occurring. Saudi Arabia's new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud is acting as a mediator to restore Saudi ties with Qatar and Turkey, and also to restore ties between Turkey and Egypt.

In fact, a rather startling non-event that occurred on Tuesday is being taken as a sign of renewed friendship between Egypt and Turkey.

Turkey's president Recep Tayyip Erdogan was a big supporter Egypt's former president Mohamed Morsi and his Muslim Brotherhood government, the only democratically elected government in Egypt's history. Erdogan broke off relations with Egypt after Abdel al-Fattah al-Sisi engineered the coup in July 2013 that ousted Morsi. Since then, Morsi has been kept in jail, and Erdogan has repeatedly stated his solidarity with Morsi, and demanded that he be freed.

On Tuesday, Morsi was sentenced to 20 years imprisonment on charges arising from the killing of protesters.

The startling non-event that we referred to above is that Erdogan hasn't said a word. Turkey's Foreign Ministry did issue a statement saying, "The verdict against former President Morsi ... aggravate[s] concerns about the future of democracy in Egypt." But we haven't heard a peep from Erdogan himself.

This is being perceived as an abandonment of Morsi engineered by Saudi King Salman. According to one analyst, “The fact that he [Erdogan] did not say a single word the day Morsi received 20 years [imprisonment]" showed that Erdogan has succumbed to the wishes of his only allies left in the region, Saudi Arabia and the Gulf states. Today's Zaman (Istanbul)

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 23-Apr-15 World View -- Palestinian factions 'unity' talks in crisis, near collapse thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (23-Apr-2015) Permanent Link
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22-Apr-15 World View -- Patriotism and nationalism surge in Saudi Arabia, but not in Iran

Saudi Arabia declares that it's met its military objectives in Yemen

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Saudi Arabia declares that it's met its military objectives in Yemen


A patriotic billboard in Riyadh features an image of soldiers and a portrait of Saudi King Salman (AFP)
A patriotic billboard in Riyadh features an image of soldiers and a portrait of Saudi King Salman (AFP)

Saudi Arabia's military announced on Tuesday that it had met its military objectives in Yemen, and that "Operation Decisive Storm" is over.

They also announced that "Operation Restoration of Hope" is beginning.

It's not clear what the difference is. The Saudi-led coalition began a heavy campaign of air strikes on March 23, and Brig. Gen. Ahmed Asiri, the Saudi military spokesman who announced the change in the name of the operation, did not indicate whether there would be any change to the airstrike campaign.

Asiri said that the military campaign’s objectives had been met as the rebels’ military capabilities had been destroyed. He said that the Houthis no longer pose a danger to civilians, and that the new operation will focus on rebuilding the country while denying the rebels operational movement, protecting civilians, and supporting evacuation and relief operations:

"To implement this we will continue to have our operation. Inside a city like Aden we will continue to protect civilians to prevent these [Houthis] militias from sustaining their operations."

Analysts that I heard suggested that the Saudis were bowing to international pressure in view of the number of civilians being killed by the airstrikes, but that there would never be a resolution of the conflict with the Houthis unless the Saudis launched a ground troop invasion. Daily Star (Beirut) and Arab News

Patriotism and nationalism surge in Saudi Arabia, but not in Iran

According to an NPR story, the Saudi public has become increasing patriotic and nationalistic since the Saudi airstrikes have begun. In addition, the popularity of the new King Salman bin Abdulaziz al Saud has skyrocketed:

Jamal Khashoggi, a Saudi journalist, says there's unprecedented unity inside the kingdom because Saudi is seen as standing up to Iran:

"We felt humiliated, we felt worried of Iranian expansionism, and we felt somebody must stand against that. And that's why Saudi people are so much now supporting of King Salman, they feel he is the man that made that stand. ...

His popularity skyrocketed, people were talking about him before as a kid, we didn't know much about him. But nowadays, with this patriotic euphoria, he scored big time."

All of this information is anecdotal, but it paints a picture of a Saudi population in sync with the government leadership in pursuing the Yemen war.

From the point of view of generational theory, this is what I refer to as a "war that comes from the people." The Saudi population does not need to be convinced of the necessity of the war in Yemen; they were receptive to it from the moment it happened. That's because Saudi Arabia is deep into a generational Crisis era, as I explained yesterday, which means that patriotism and nationalism are going to be high.

The journalist Khashoggi is quoted as saying that the "unprecedented unity" is occurring BECAUSE Saudi Arabia is seen standing up to Iran.

But from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, that's not the reason at all. Just standing up to an enemy doesn't always unify the country. Americans were unified behind President Roosevelt in World War II, which was a generational crisis war, but not behind Presidents Kennedy or Johnson in the Vietnam war, which was an Awakening era war.

Like America in the 1960s, Iran is in a generational Awakening era today, since only one generation has passed since the end of Iran's Great Islamic Revolution and the Iran/Iraq war that climaxed in 1988.

And so we see quite a different picture in Iran. There have been no reports of carwashes in Iran backing Iran's support of the Houthis in Yemen. There have been no reports of patriotic war songs, or patriotic billboards about Yemen.

There are plenty of reports about statements from Iran government officials. Here's one from a speech by Iran's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Seyed Ali Khamenei from February:

"Whether or not our enemies like it, the Islamic Revolution has been advancing since its beginning, and today we have might in Iraq, Afghanistan, Pakistan, Bahrain, Yemen, and even Saudi Arabia, that we did not have from 1978-1991... In the not-so-distant future, we will see the twilight of America and Israel – this is not a slogan... Today we in Iran, Hizbullah in Lebanon, Ansar Allah [i.e. the Houthi movement] in Yemen, the National Defense Force in Syria, [and] the popular forces in Iraq have become much stronger... The great popular army begins to take shape in the world; be certain that this movement is undefeatable."

This is actually a pathetic attempt to relive the erotic days of the 1979 revolution by blaming everything on the United States. It worked then because Iran was in a generational Crisis era. Khamenei's arguments are old and shopworn, and a version of them could have been used (and were used) at any time since the 1980s.

So this is what I refer to as "a war that comes from the politicians." The public mood is completely different, and the public support is almost nonexistent.

Today, Iran is in a generational Awakening era. Just as Americans in the 1960s were sick of hearing about the dangers of Communism, Iranians today are sick of hearing about the evils of the West, which they really don't believe.

The difference is that Iran's population today contain many survivors of the 1980s wars. They remember how bloody the revolution was, and how 1 1/2 million people were killed in the war with Saddam. And of course they remember that they were victimized by Saddam's use of poison gas.

That's why there are no carwashes in Iran exalting Iran's support for the Houthis in Yemen. In fact, that's why Khamenei can't even admit that Iran is participating, since he knows how unpopular that would be. The Iranian people remember the 1980s, and don't want another war.

Here's a brief additional word on some nearby countries. Iraq, Syria and Lebanon are also all in generational Awakening eras, and the public mood is similar.

In Iraq in the 1980s, the Sunnis and Shias were unified behind Saddam to fight Iran in the Iran/Iraq war. Today, the Sunnis are joining up with Islamic State (IS or ISIS or ISIL or Daesh), the Iraq army has a reputation for dropping their weapons and running for their lives, and the Shia militias have had little success.

In Syria, president Bashar al-Assad is using everything from heavy weapons to Sarin gas to chlorine gas to subjugate his people, but instead of fighting, they're running away, and now there are millions of Syrian refugees in neighboring countries.

In Lebanon, the political situation is so fractured that the country has been unable to elect a president for months. Hezbollah militias are fighting in Syria, but that's because Hezbollah leader Sayyed Hassan Nasrallah is forcing them to, and, ironically, that's because Nasrallah's puppetmasters in Iran are forcing him to do so.

But other countries -- Saudi Arabia, Jordan, Egypt, Israel, Palestinian territories (Palestine) -- are deep into a generational crisis era, and those countries are going to drive the coming major sectarian war. NPR and Memri and Gulf News/Washington Post

(Comments: For reader comments, questions and discussion, see the 22-Apr-15 World View -- Patriotism and nationalism surge in Saudi Arabia, but not in Iran thread of the Generational Dynamics forum. Comments may be posted anonymously.) (22-Apr-2015) Permanent Link
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21-Apr-15 World View -- US sends warships to Yemen as Saudis face a quagmire

ECB examines a possible 'second currency' for Greece - government IOUs

This morning's key headlines from GenerationalDynamics.com

Saudi Arabia appears headed for a quagmire in Yemen


Huge explosion following airstrike on army weapons depot near Sanaa on Monday (Reuters)
Huge explosion following airstrike on army weapons depot near Sanaa on Monday (Reuters)

A Saudi Arabia airstrike on Monday on a military weapons depot near Sanaa, the capital city of Yemen, caused the most powerful explosion of the current Saudi air campaign against the Iran-backed Houthi militias that have overrun much of the country. The explosion was so powerful that shop fronts were shattered and windows were blown out four miles away from the explosion.

The Saudis have been conducting a massive air campaign against the Houthis in Yemen since March 26. Although there's supposed to be a large coalition of nations participating, in actual practice only United Arab Emirates (UAE) has joined the Saudis in the airstrikes. The only other nation participating militarily is Egypt, which is bombarding Houthi targets from the sea with its Navy. The US military is helping out with intelligence and air-to-air refueling, and is sending the USS Theodore Roosevelt carrier group to waters off Yemen.

However, the air campaign is receiving a great deal of international criticisms because hundreds of civilians have been killed, and the airstrikes have hit hospitals, schools and a refugee camp. The Houthis have been storing weapons in hospitals, schools and civilian neighborhoods in order to provoke such attacks, and they're adapting to the airstrikes by avoiding being caught in large convoys.

Analysts believe that airstrikes alone are unlikely to settle the war and that sooner or later, a Saudi ground invasion will be required. And if that happens, analysts say that the Saudis would be involved in a bloody quagmire.

As we've been reporting, the Pakistan government has rejected Saudi Arabia's request for military help in Yemen. It turns out that this is a bitter shock to the Saudis, since Saudi Arabia has provided plenty of military aid to Pakistan over the decades.

Many analysts are predicting that Saudi Arabia will back down and negotiate a settlement with the Houthis -- which would be an enormous victory for the Houthis and for their Iranian sponsors. However, from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Saudi Arabia is not in the mood for a compromise. Saudi Arabia's last generational crisis war was even earlier than World War II -- it occurred in the 1920s between the Al Sauds tribes and the Wahhabi tribes, when t