Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Jun-04

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Furtive armed forces buildup continues

Furtive armed forces buildup continues

The Army's plan to call up some 6,000 retired and discharged soldiers continues the three-year trend line of a larger war effort. The Pentagon had announced plans to reduce troop levels in Iraq, but instead is increasing them by a variety of techniques -- mainly by "stop-loss orders" that extend the involuntary active duty time for keeping National Guard and Reserve troops. Now the Army is calling up Individual Ready Reserve category of reservists for service.

The problem that's worried me for two years is American overconfidence and hubris. It's amazing to me that I can't remember even a single television pundit or newspaper pundit express any doubt that America can win any war any time. (Senator Kerry, and those who think we're failing in Iraq, blame Bush for sending in too few troops.)

This is caused by the generational change in leadership that took place around the year 2000. Ten years ago, all the major senior business, government and education leaders were risk-averse people from the generation that grew up during the Great Depression and World War II. Today, all the major leaders are from the risk-seeking, arrogant, hubristic, narcissistic, self-assured "baby boomer generation."

So, as conflict levels continue to increase throughout the Mideast, and tension grows in Taiwan and Korea, America is so over-confident that we're not willing to take the necessary steps to prepare for the future (i.e., a draft). Instead, the use of reservists is an almost furtive way of increasing the size of the armed forces without anybody noticing.

What will happen if a major new conflict situation arises somewhere, requiring American forces? We'll be almost totally unprepared for it. (29-Jun-04) Permanent Link
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