Dynamics
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Those who believe that a John Kerry victory in November will extract America from Iraq are in for a nasty surprise, if we're to believe what Kerry said yesterday in criticizing the Bush administration's callup of retired and discharged soldiers, according to a 7/1 Boston Globe article.
The gist of Kerry's criticism of Bush is that there are too few troops in Iraq to do the job. Kerry and other members of Congress have previously called for increasing the size of the Army to meet Mideast commitments. Kerry has been repeatedly challenging Bush's management of national security in general and the war in Iraq in particular.
The point is that whatever happens in Iraq and the Mideast is already "baked into the cake," and whatever happens will happen irrespective of who is elected President in November. In fact, if there's any difference at all in how Bush and Kerry might act, Kerry will act at least or more aggressively militarily than Bush. Why? Because Bush's natural enemies, the Democrats, will slow him down, while Kerry's natural enemies, the Republicans, will pressure him not to be weak militarily.
One of the things that people ought to understand better, that Generational Dynamics teaches us, is that great events happen irrespective of who the politicians are. World War II would have happened even if Hitler had never been born. These events are caused by generational changes. I predicted in 2002 that there would be no important anti-war movement in America, and except for a small group of Naderites, there is none. I predicted late in 2002 that there would be no civil war in Iraq and no uprising against America in Iraq, and that's come true for very good reasons I've repeatedly said (here and here and here, for example) on this web site, despite hysterical pundits who have been wrong every time.
So now we have Bush furtively increasing the size of the armed
forces, and Kerry calling for even more forces. Generational
Dynamics tells us that we're heading for a much larger war, and both
Bush and Kerry are heading in exactly that direction.
(1-Jul-04)
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