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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Jul-04

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Low payroll data shows economy's fragility

Low payroll data shows economy's fragility

Today's unemployment report for June showed employers added only 112,000 jobs to their payrolls last month, less than half the 250,000 economists had been expecting, showing how fragile the economy is.

There's little doubt about this: If the economy were in the robust economy that many pundits were claiming, then the job growth would be in the 300,000-400,000 range by now.

You can't tell much from a single month's report, except that volatility is a way of life, but Generational Dynamics predicts that we're entering a new secular 1930s-style depression. At the very least, we can say that the job reports for the last year have done nothing to refute that prediction, especially with the vast amounts of very low interest credit that have been available for the last three years.

The "good" news is that the weak employment number means that the Fed will not be any rush to increase interest rates further, thus guaranteeing continue low interest credit for the foreseeable future. (2-Jul-04) Permanent Link
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