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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 14-Jul-04

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Two events affect al-Qaeda psychology.

Two events affect al-Qaeda psychology.

Saudi cleric Khaled al-Harby turns himself in, and the Filipinos capitulate to al-Qaeda.

Terrorism works with psychology. Everyone knows that setting off a car bomb in the middle of a crowd of Iraqis or blowing up a train station in Madrid are acts with little pure military value, but they do have a psychological value of, well, terrorizing people.

On June 23, the Saudis issued a one-month amnesty and ultimatum to terrorists to turn themselves in. Well, a couple have already, but there has just been a big catch, Khaled al-Harby, who is Osama bin Laden's close associate. That's going to make al-Qaeda very angry.

Yesterday, the Philippines capitulated to al-Qaeda by agreeing to withdraw its 50 troops from Iraq a few weeks earlier than had been scheduled. The terrorists had threaten to behead a Filipino hostage unless Manila complied. That's making al-Qaeda very happy.

No other country has capitulated to terrorists in this way. The Philippines' capitulation has been widely criticized around the world -- by America, Poland, Australia, Bulgaria and South Korea have all deplored the move. Because of al-Qaeda's success, we can expect to see more kidnappings in Iraq.

The Saudi ultimatum period ends in nine days. What will happen when it expires? Will the Saudis go after the other terrorists in a more aggressive manner, or will the ultimate just be dropped? Stay tuned. (14-Jul-04) Permanent Link
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