Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 21-Jul-04

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Greenspan very upbeat about the economy

Greenspan very upbeat about the economy

but he seems to be too optimistic.

Federal Reserve Chairman Alan Greenspan's testimony to Congress (full Monetary Policy Report here) was positively bubbly.

He said that the economic recovery has become "self-sustaining," thanks to rising employment and increases in disposable income and consumer spending, and that the Fed could return to a "neutral stance" with respect to the Fed funds rate. He added that the economy's recent "soft patch" was caused by a spike in oil prices and would be "short-lived."

Generational Dynamics predicts that the economy will return to a deflationary trend (see below). The reason is that businesses are producing products and services that younger generations find increasingly obsolete, and the businesses have, on average, become too bureaucratic to change quickly enough to satisfy younger generations.

The next few months will tell us which of these views is correct. (21-Jul-04) Permanent Link
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