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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 22-Jul-04

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Saudi amnesty expires - What now?

Saudi amnesty expires - What now?

Only four al-Qaeda militants have turned themselves in under the one month amnesty / ultimatum, amid news reports that three more are negotiating surrender as the amnesty period expires today. Saudi officials had said that they expected many more militants to surrender.

Crown Prince Abdullah announced the amnesty a month ago, along with an ultimatum promising a crackdown on anyone not surrendering by the deadline.

Saudi Arabia is a Kingdom in crisis, thanks to a series of terrorist bombings targeted at vulnerable targets within the Royal family and the oil industry.

So what happens now? The Kingdom has made an ultimatum and is committed to it, and must follow through or lose credibility. Will the Kingdom declare war on al-Qaeda? Or will it make a few symbolic arrests, and give al-Qaeda another victory? Either of these choices will lead to increasing violence, and that's why ultimatums make me nervous. This is a situation to watch for the next few days. (22-Jul-04) Permanent Link
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