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Major violence has not yet spread from Gaza to West Bank, but the question of whether things will "spiral out of control" is still open. The level of violence hasn't gotten much worse in the last couple of weeks, but it hasn't gotten any better either.
In Jenin, the offices of the pro-Arafat district governor were torched, leading to a protest by thousands of Palestinians in support of the Al-Aqsa Martyrs Brigades. In Nablus, Arafat supporters used gunfire to break up a meeting of the anti-Arafat Al Awda Brigades. There were no injuries.
These two West Bank incidents are relatively minor violence by Mideast standards, but they show that the confrontation between the pro-Arafat "old guard" generation and the pro-reform "young guard" generation is far from resolution, and could get worse. Arafat is 74, and the "young guard" leaders are in their 20s, 30s and 40s.
The most dramatic change is a recent change in Palestinian attitudes towards Israel's planned pullout from Gaza in 2005. Palestinian support of the pullout was at 73% in March, but dropped to 34% by the end June, according to a new poll by the respected Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research.
This change occurs as anxious Palestinians have viewed the increasing levels of violence, by Israelis and from Palestinian infighting, that have occurred ever since Israel first announced the withdrawal plan. According to the new poll, 59% of the Palestinians believe that the Israeli withdrawal will not end Palestinian infighting, as different Palestinian militias compete to fill the power vacuum left by the Israeli withdrawal.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Palestinian
region is in a very critical "generational crisis" period, and that
the older generation led by Arafat, the "old guard," is the factor
keeping the most extreme forms of violence under control.
Generational Dynamics predicts that, with near 100% certainty, the
region will spiral into a major war in the next few years, led by the
self-appointed "prophets" or leaders of the young guard. The exact
time cannot be forecast, but it's expected that it would begin in the
months following the disappearance of Arafat through death or
retirement.
(1-Aug-04)
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