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Nothing shows more how clueless the press is about what's going on in Iraq than this constant talk about civil war and uprisings.
And nothing shows better why journalists, analysts and others should learn a little about how generations work than the situation in Iraq.
For a year and a half, the press, politicians, and analysts have been talking about things in Iraq "spiraling out of control" into a huge civil war between the Sunnis and Shi'as, or into a major uprising against the Americans. Let's face it, a lot of these concerns have been wishful thinking as much as anything else.
But here's "Generational Dynamics 1.01": That kind of civil war or uprising is impossible in Iraq at this time. Why? Because it's been only one generation since they've been in a major crisis war, the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. Iraq is in a generational "awakening" period, characterized by riots and demonstrations, but no major civil wars - just like America in the 1960s. If you'd like to understand what's really going on in Iraq, then read about America in the sixties.
What makes this talk about things "spiraling out of control" in Iraq so mindless is that that's exactly what might happen in a couple of other places -- in Palestine or in Russia's southern provinces (Chechnya) near the Caucasus. Either one of those regions really could break out into full scale war at any time, and either would would draw America into a major war. These possibilities are crucially important to America's future, but the press would rather talk about the impossible in Iraq.
There are things to worry about in Iraq. There are clearly
insurgents in Fallujah and Najaf, well-funded by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi
and Iranian mullahs, respectively, and there are terrorist bombings
and kidnappings through the country. It's a dangerous place. But the
perpetrators are small groups. Most important, they do not have the
support of the mass of Iraqi people, most of whom are still war weary
from the 1980s, and want no more of it.
(7-Aug-04)
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