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Mindless journalists are proclaiming a massive Shi'ite revolt. Ummmm, I don't think so.
For example, today's Boston Globe lead page one headline is: Shi'ites' uprising grows, and quotes Moqtada al-Sadr as promising to fight to "the last drop of my blood." The story, which also appeared on page one of the Washington Post, gushed with what can only be called wishful thinking.
These stories have popping up regularly since the war began, and I've been saying for over a year and a half now that such an uprising is impossible. Only a single generation has passed since the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s, and so Iraq is in a "generational awakening" period. Such massive civil wars and uprisings NEVER happen during generational awakenings.
What has finally happened is what I predicted last year: The incessant terrorism is backfiring. The Iraqi people, still war-weary from the 1980s, are sick and tired of the terrorism, and getting really pissed off at al-Sadr. That's why several Iraqi government officials, including Iraq's interim Prime Minister Ayad Allawi and Adnan al-Zarfi, the Governor of Najaf, have condemned al-Sadr's actions and have given the U.S. led American and Iraqi forces the go-ahead.
The fight is against a fairly small militia loyal to al-Sadr. It's not known how large the militia is, but it's thought to be a few hundred members. They are not receiving widespread support from Iraqi Shi'ites. The only way that could possibly happen is if the American forces did something so heinous that they completely offended believers to their core. That's why news reports indicate that it will be the Iraqi fighters, rather than American forces, who will actually enter the holy Shi'ite shrines.
From what I can tell, al-Sadr seems to be on his last legs. He's
using bravado and braggadocio to compensate for the weakness and
desperation of his position. And let's not forget that when he says
he'll fight to "the last drop of my blood," he's staying safely out of
sight and letting his followers fight to the last drop of their blood.
The only time he comes out of hiding is to hold a press conference to
give the eager, mindless reporters a few more quotes.
(10-Aug-04)
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