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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Aug-04
Putin calls Georgia's Ossetia policy a 'stupid decision'

Web Log - August, 2004

Putin calls Georgia's Ossetia policy a 'stupid decision'

Last week's cease-fire agreement between Tbilisi, Georgia's capital, and its secessionist South Ossetia province broke down within hours after the agreement was reached. Low-level violence between Ossetians and Georgian troops has continued unabated since then, resulting in about a dozen casualties in the last few days.

North and South Ossetia <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

North and South Ossetia (Source: BBC)

Russian President Vladimir Putin cancelled his scheduled trip to Tbilisi today, saying that it would be "inappropriate" amid the tension. "I want to remind people that this conflict [in South Ossetia] erupted after the collapse of the Soviet Union. After becoming independent Georgia announced that it is revoking autonomous status of South Ossetia. Ethnic conflict had erupted after this very stupid decision."

In ordinary times, a remark like this might simply be ignored. But the entire Caucasus region is in a "generational crisis period," and even little remarks can inflame passions.

Although Putin's language has been ambiguous as to which side he favors in the dispute between Georgia and South Ossetia, most South Ossetians have Russian passports, and the Georgians believe that Russia favors the separatist side. Georgian President Mikhail Saakashvili has stated that Georgia will not tolerate loss of its "territorial integrity."

Troubled areas in Caucasus regions

Troubled areas in Caucasus regions

Since the breakup of the Soviet Union, Georgia has been threatened by demands for greater autonomony from three of its provinces, Ajara, Abkhazia and South Ossetia.

While Georgia is mostly Orthodox Christian, Ajara has been historically Muslim; but thanks to many conversions to Christianity since the breakup of the Ottoman empire in the 1920s, Ajara's large cities are now mostly Christian. Although Islam still predominates in rural areas, Ajara is is ethnically similar to Georgia. As a result, after ten years of confrontation, Ajara agreed to submit to Tbilisi's control a couple of months ago.

The Ajara success story is not expected to be repeated in Abkhazia and South Ossetia, according to a report by the International Crisis Group.

While Ajara has never tried to secede from Georgia, the other two provinces have done so. And while Russia has no interest in Ajara, the Russians have offered the Ossetians and Abkhazians Russian citizenship.

Complicating the matter further is the fact that Russia has military bases in both Abkhazia and South Ossetia. Saakashvili has indicated his intention for Georgia to join Nato, which would bring Western troops into Georgia. Thus, Abkhazia and South Ossetia are not going to agree to Tbilisi control as easily as Ajara did. (19-Aug-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Aug-04 Putin calls Georgia's Ossetia policy a 'stupid decision'

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 19-Aug-04
Putin calls Georgia's Ossetia policy a 'stupid decision'