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Oil prices surged up again to $47.80 this morning, a new modern record, on news that Russian oil giant Yukos is continuing its descent into bankruptcy, and violence continues in Iraq. Prices are up more than $10 per barrel since the end of June, as a new record has been reached almost every day.
The Wednesday announcement by OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) that it would increase oil production next month does not appear to have stemmed the price rise.
For the last nine days, threats by terrorist insurgents in Iraq have forced export cutbacks in oil exports from that country by 50%. On top of that, there are also concerns that Saudi Arabia's old oil fields have reached their peak.
These concerns are magnified by a new report from China's State Statistical Bureau that China has imported 40% more crude so far this year than in 2003, and that China's refiners have processed 17.2 percent more crude. These two figures together indicate that China is increasingly dependent on foreign sources of oil. In fact, one of China's principal international suppliers is Yukos.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is in a
generational "unraveling" period, similar to America in the 1990s or
Japan in the 1980s, where societal and cultural norms of all kinds,
including financial norms, appear to break down. Japan and America
both experienced large stock market bubbles during these periods, with
the bubbles ending in 1990 and 2000, respectively. China is now in a
similar stock market bubble. When it bursts, it will reduce China's
demand for imported oil, but it will also have significant negative
effects on the global economy in other ways.
(19-Aug-04)
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