	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-04
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani appears to be trumping Moqtada al-Sadr in Najaf

Web Log - August, 2004

Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani appears to be trumping Moqtada al-Sadr in Najaf

Things could still go wrong, but it appears that the adults are finally disciplining the kids. And the use of the words "adults" and "kids" is not just an attempt at humor. It's crucial to understanding what's going on.

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani

Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani

As I've said many times, Iraq today is in a "generational awakening" period, one generation following the 1980s Iran/Iraq war. America's last awakening period was the 1960s, one generation following World War II.

Awakening periods occur in any nation at any time throughout history, one generation past the end of a genocidal crisis war. It's always a generational conflict -- between, on the one hand, the heroes who fought in the war and who have created new institutions and rules to prevent any such war from happening again, and, on the other hand, their children, who always rebel against those institutions and rules. The conflict is between the children and their parents, but it becomes a conflict between the children and any authority figure.

Thus, journalists and high-priced analysts who have been warning about a new Iraqi civil war between Sunnis and Shiites for the last year and a half have been completely wrong: No such civil war has ever occurred, throughout history, during an awakening period. It's literally impossible, as I've been saying on this web site for a long, long time. We can expect to see riots, demonstrations and low-level violence, but not the kind of uprising that journalists and high-priced analysts have been warning about.

In the Najaf conflict, the "kids" have been Moqtada al-Sadr and his followers, and the "adults" have been the provisional government and, of course, the Americans.

Grand Ayatollah al-Sistani holds special power in this situation, because he's a generation older than the leaders of the provisional government. It's his age that gives him the respect of both sides.

So what should we expect now (assuming that the current deal in Najaf continues to hold)?

One place to look is Iraq's previous awakening period -- in the mid-1940s. By 1948, the riots and demonstrations were so large and widespread that the British were forced to remove their troops from Iraq and had to give up sovereignty over their two air bases in Iraq.

Ayatollah al-Sistani certainly remembers that 1948 victory, and so do a lot of other older Iraqis. We can feel pretty certain that the unrest will continue as long as there are American troops and bases in Iraq. (27-Aug-04) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-04 Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani appears to be trumping Moqtada al-Sadr in Najaf

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-04
Grand Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani appears to be trumping Moqtada al-Sadr in Najaf