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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-04
Polls show that Kerry has been hurt by "Swift Boat" controversy

Web Log - August, 2004

Polls show that Kerry has been hurt by "Swift Boat" controversy

John Kerry might have done better if he'd followed his own rule.

A year ago, when Howard Dean was the Democratic front-runner, I wrote that "the Democrats [are] making a potentially fatal error by being too stridently anti-Bush." I said the Democrat's hatred of George Bush could seriously backfire.

That's what's happened in the last few weeks. Instead of just letting the Swift Boat controversy die of its own accord, Kerry kept it alive for three weeks by personally making vitriolic attacks, accusing Bush of being involved in the Swift Boat campaign.

Kerry won the nomination in part by setting a rule for his campaign that it would not repeat Dean's mistake of appearing to hate Bush. The Swift Boat controversy has hurt Kerry because he violated his own rule.

By contrast, Bush did not make any such error when the far more damaging Fahrenheit 9/11 movie came out. He didn't make vitriolic accusations at Kerry over the movie, and let the storm pass.

Kerry should immediately drop the Swift Boat controversy and let it play itself out, while he concentrates on other issues, such as the economy, which are his strength.

It seems absurd that we're spending so much in this campaign on things that happened almost 40 years ago, but there is one remaining Vietnam War issue that's really concerning a lot of people (including me).

In 1971, Kerry said that American soldiers were committing war crimes "on a day-to-day basis with the full awareness of officers at all levels of command." These atrocities included rape, torture, and cutting off ears, heads and limbs.

Statements like these really infuriate many people who were alive at that time. The most visible person who made similar statements in the 70s was actress Jane Fonda, who visited the enemy capital (Hanoi) and made similar statements. Later, Fonda refused to condemn Vietnamese actions that led to the genocide of millions of Cambodians, leading many people to conclude that Fonda, Kerry, and others like them were motivated only by hatred of America, rather than by some abstract anti-war view.

(In fact, Jane Fonda was clearly motivated by hatred of her own father, Henry Fonda. Jane and Henry finally "made up" in 1982 when they co-starred in the movie, On Golden Pond.)

A lot of young people who don't understand what all the fuss is about should know that it's Kerry's statements about atrocities that are fueling the anger against him. The issue about what ribbons he won while serving is only a proxy for the real issue.

Even so, it might not even matter what Kerry said in the 1970s if he repudiated those statements. Jane Fonda has apologized for her actions, but Kerry has never done anything to repudiate his statements and actions from the 1970s.

Does Kerry still believe that American soldiers committed atrocities and war crimes on a day to day basis, with the full awareness of officers at all levels of command? As far as I can tell, he still does believe that. Does America want the War on Terror to be led by a man who believes that America itself committed regular atrocities in Vietnam? Probably not, and that's a big problem for Kerry.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Kerry has made the same mistake that so many other journalists, pundits and high-priced analysts have been making since the war in Afghanistan began after 9/11. They've all said that when the body bags start coming back, Americans will turn against the War on Terror. They've said that because they don't understand that America today is in a "generational crisis" period, where such an attitude cannot prevail. In the 1970s, America was in a "generational awakening" period, which is completely different.

Kerry's problems with this issue are self-inflicted -- he has failed to understand the real intensity of feeling about this issue. Kerry should have apologized months ago for his 1970s actions. He could easily have done so, with no harm to himself, by saying that he made mistakes because he was young. (Remember that Bush has apologized for drinking and womanizing when he was young.)

At this late date, apologizing for his 1970s actions will not be as credible as it might have been months ago. Still, it's the best chance he has to defuse the Swift Boat campaign and get back to the real issues. (27-Aug-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-04 Polls show that Kerry has been hurt by "Swift Boat" controversy

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 27-Aug-04
Polls show that Kerry has been hurt by "Swift Boat" controversy