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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Aug-04
Two buses in Israel blown up today, apparently by suicide bombers

Web Log - August, 2004

Two buses in Israel blown up today, apparently by suicide bombers

The thing to watch for - and it won't be widely reported - is changing attitudes of Israelis themselves.

The Israelis have undoubtedly been feeling very relieved in recent weeks, because there haven't been any suicide bombings in Israel for a relatively long time - since March.

The disappearance of suicide bombings has been attributed to Ariel Sharon's disengagement plans: Building the barrier separating Israel from the West Bank, and pulling out of the Gaza strip.

Israel

Israel

Both of these plans have been very controversial. A United Nations court has said, in essence, that Israel has no right to build such a barrier on Palestinian land, even if it prevents suicide bombings, although Israel could build a barrier on Israeli land if it wished.

And the plan to pull out of the Gaza strip in 2005 has roiled Palestinian politics, as different factions have competed with one another to fill the power vacuum that Israeli will be leaving.

This is all in the framework of a threat (or promise), by Palestinian militia group Hamas, of a major terrorist attack against Israel by the end of 2004, in retaliation for Israel's killings of major Hamas leaders.

So today we apparently have two new coordinated suicide bombings in Beersheba. How will this affect the attitudes of the Israeli people?

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the Palestine region appears to have entered a "generational crisis" period in 1999, starting with the new Intifada that resulted in a series of suicide bombings that forced the Israeli withdrawal from southern Lebanon, something that the Palestinian militia group Hizbollah considers to be a major victory over the Israelis.

However, the last generational crisis period ended in 1949, and so not enough time has passed for the region to be very deep into a crisis period. That's why both the Palestinians and the Israelis are still willing to look for ways to compromise and contain problems, rather than threaten all out war. (By contrast, the Caucasus region is deep into a crisis period and is far more dangerous.)

So, what we'll be watching for in the next few days is to see how Israeli public opinion changes, now that they face the realization that they're still exposed to suicide bombers.

Will they continue to seek ways to compromise and contain problems? Or will they start to become so infuriated that they'll seek revenge or a war to "fix the problem once and for all," as Americans did after 9/11 when we went to war in Afghanistan? (31-Aug-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Aug-04 Two buses in Israel blown up today, apparently by suicide bombers

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 31-Aug-04
Two buses in Israel blown up today, apparently by suicide bombers