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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Sept-04
Russians in shock over three major terrorist attacks within a week

Web Log - September, 2004

Russians in shock over three major terrorist attacks within a week

The world's most dangerous region, the Caucusus, is quickly becoming even more dangerous, as repeated major terrorist actions attributed to the Chechen "black widows" are creating the impression that Russian President Vladimir Putin is losing control of his country.

Russians themselves are furious that terrorists have taken hundreds of hostages, including 200 children and their parents, in an ongoing drama in North Ossetia.

This follows a car bombing yesterday that killed ten people outside a subway stop in Moscow.

And that follows last week's double airline bombing, attributed to two Chechen women in the two simultaneous incidents that killed 90 people. The perpetrators were two women, 30 and 37, who had been roommates. One of them had lost her brother when, according to reports, he was abducted, tortured and killed by Russian forces in 2001.

Other terrorist acts this year include a Moscow subway bombing in February that killed 41 people and the May 9 bombing in a stadium in the Chechen capital, Grozny, during a Victory Day ceremony, that killed 24 people, including Chechen President Akhmad Kadyrov.

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia and Chechnya

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia and Chechnya

Some analysts are blaming the wave of terror attacks on Russia in general and on Putin in particular, because of the policy that permits Russian security forces to abduct, torture and kill young Chechen men suspected of rebel ties. It's this policy that spawned the "black widow" movement, consisting of female Chechen suicide terrorists. The group is also known by the name "Islambouli Brigades of al-Qaeda."

While it's certainly true Putin has mishandled the situation, and it's certainly true that Russian policies have exacerbated the terrorist problem in the Caucasus, the terrorism precedes the Russian policies, going back to Chechnya's 1994 attempt to secede from Russia.

The Caucasus region is one of the most dangerous regions of the world right now. From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's even more dangerous than the Palestine region, since it's farther into a generational crisis period. It's a major front line in the centuries old war between Orthodox Christians and Muslims.

Today's terrorist hostage-takers are demanding the release of Chechen fighters seized by Russian forces during another terrorist attack, a June 22 attack by heavily armed rebels against the Russian Interior Ministry in the next-door province of Ingushetia.

The fact that this incident is taking place in North Ossetia relates it to another ongoing drama, the threatened secession of South Ossetia from Georgia, in order to merge with North Ossetia in Russia.

Mikheil Saakashvili appears to be ready to ready to declare war on Russia, because of the perception that Russia is supporting the South Ossetians' moves towards secession. Saakashvili appears to believe that Russia would be unable to defend against such a war, because doing so would risk inflaming the Chechen region. Saakashvili appears to believe that he would win such a war with relatively little bloodshed.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the "Clash of Civilizations" world war is going to occur within the next few years with almost 100% certainty. I think that we can now begin to see more clearly how events in the war on terror are likely to unfold. Islamic terrorists throughout Europe and Asia are using more and more terrorist attacks to inflame and infuriate people, even moderates. Sooner or later, one of these countries is going to declare war on somebody, in order to "solve the problem once and for all" - just as an infuriated America immediately declared war on Afghanistan after 9/11. We can't predict exactly where it will happen -- an infuriated Israeli population against the Palestinians, an infuriated Russian population against Chechnya, or a similar situation in Pakistan, Bangladesh, Philippines or other places. Once such a war begins, it's liable to lead, within a few months, to the spread of war to other regions, leading to the "Clash of Civilizations." None of this is certain, of course, but this appears to be an increasingly likely scenario.

A side note: The television commentators on the cable news stations seem to know very little about what's going on in this region. Several are attributing the hostage-taking to last Sunday's election; this ignores the fact that the Chechen issues are much deeper, and it also ignores the fact that the school takeover obviously required months of planning. One CNN analyst this morning spoke at length about the situation, and kept referring to the school takeover as taking place in "South Ossetia." Anyone who knows anything at all about this region could not possibly confuse South Ossetia, which is a northern province of Georgia, with North Ossetia, which is a southern province of Russia. (1-Sept-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Sept-04 Russians in shock over three major terrorist attacks within a week

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Sept-04
Russians in shock over three major terrorist attacks within a week