	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Sept-04
France scores major diplomatic coup over hostage crisis

Web Log - September, 2004

France scores major diplomatic coup over hostage crisis

French Muslims have overwhelmingly put nationality above religion, showing the Muslims and Christians in France are far more united than might previously have been expected.

The terrorist kidnapping of two French journalists in Iraq initially stunned the French people because they had strongly opposed the war in Iraq.

However, the French people have now reacted to the crisis by overwhelmingly supporting the new law restricting obvious religious symbols, including Muslim headscarves, in public schools. The terrorists have demanded repeal of the law as a condition for release of the hostages.

Even Muslim opponents of the law are now strongly opposing repeal, because the hostage crisis amounts to foreign interference in French society. According to one Muslim leader, "Some (Muslim) women say that if the headscarf is to be tainted with the blood of hostage victims, then they don't want the headscarf."

The diplomatic coup is international, as Muslims throughout the world have been condemning the terrorist act and demanding the release of the French hostages.

Unfortunately, this international unity of France and the Muslim community does not guarantee that the hostages will be freed. The terrorists, whose goal is to increase the level of international conflict, may well decide that their goal is still best served by beheading their prisoners.

For those who are trying to understand what Generational Dynamics is about, this incident gives us an opportunity to explain why something like this is important.

Generational Dynamics predicts that there'll be a new West European crisis war in the next few years. This is based on the observation that West European crisis wars have occurred repeatedly for centuries, at fairly regular intervals dictated by generational changes. Like the last ones, the new war will involve at least France, Germany and England.

A crisis war unifies a society, and the people become more willing to sacrifice individual rights for the greater good of working together for national survival. This has been happening in America, as shown by the little political resistance to the Patriot Act.

The sudden show of unity by the French, and the willingness to give up individual rights in the form of displaying religious symbols, shows that the French have entered a generational crisis period, and that they'll be united as a people as the crisis proceeds. The show of unity tells us that France will not split along a religious fault line, and end up in a civil war.

The diplomatic closeness of France with the international Muslim community tells us that as the crisis progresses, France will side with the Muslims. This should not come as a surprise, given the enmity that France has shown to England's and America's participation in the Iraq war.

Specifically, this situation makes it clear that in a Mideast war between Palestinians and Israelis, the French will side with the Palestinians and the England and America will side with the Israelis. Nothing is certain until it actually happens, of course, but the hostage incident is clearly pointing France in that direction.

Incidentally, Germany and Russia also opposed the Iraqi war, but they're not exhibiting the same kinds of international unity with Muslims that France has. In particular, Russia has been the target of numerous terrorist acts by Islamic terrorists, and may be close to a major war in the Caucasus region.

As we head for the "Clash of Civilizations" world war, which Generational Dynamics predicts is coming with almost 100% certainty, we can watch events like the French hostage crisis to help us understand how events are most likely to unfold. (2-Sept-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Sept-04 France scores major diplomatic coup over hostage crisis

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Sept-04
France scores major diplomatic coup over hostage crisis