	Generational Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Sept-04
George Bush appears to have done well at the Republican Convention thanks to a strong message and a major piece of good luck

Web Log - September, 2004

George Bush appears to have done well at the Republican Convention thanks to a strong message and a major piece of good luck

This morning's unemployment and jobs report was much more positive than expected, in view of recent weaknesses in manufacturing, retail, and consumer confidence figures. The unemployment rate fell to a three-year low of 5.4%, and the payroll estimates were higher than they have been.

This is a stroke of luck for the Republicans, who had a very weak economic message at the Republican National Convention this week.

The economy was barely mentioned all week. When Bush finally gave his acceptance speech he did have an economy message, but it was just the usually silly laundry list of promises for every one. (John Kerry had a similar list in his acceptance speech at the Democratic National Committee meeting.)

Bush had been in danger of being "Hooverized," in the sense that the Democrats might have painted him as a new President Herbert Hoover, who lost the 1932 election for failing to recognize that the economy was having serious problems and was failing. But now, the Republicans have had a very strong message on the War on Terror this week, and thanks to the jobs report, their weak message on the economy will not matter.

Fighting the Last Antiwar

During the 1960s and 1970s, the World War II heroes suffered one humiliating defeat after another because they didn't realize how much the nation had changed in the 20 years since the war ended. The young college student generation, including John Kerry, challenged the aging hero generation, and won one political victory after another.

One criticism of the aging heroes that was frequently repeated throughout the 1960s and 70s was that "they're always fighting the last war." The implication was the the older generation was out of date, and didn't realize that the new world was different, and different tactics were required for both wars and politics.

The fact that societies flip back and forth between "generational crisis" periods, during which the people feel that their entire way of life is in danger and individual rights are sacrificed, and "awakening periods," during which new political and spiritual ideas blossom and individual rights are emphasized, is part of Generational Dynamics, and has been verified for dozens of times and places throughout history.

So when I say, slightly facetiously, that John Kerry is "fighting the last antiwar," I'm making the point that he's conducting a campaign that would be quite appropriate for the 1960s and 70s, and even the 80s and 90s, but is inappropriate today.

Last night, following President Bush's speech, Kerry held a midnight campaign rally that appeared so desperate that it's hard to fathom what he might have been thinking. Following Bush's strong defense of his decisiveness in the War on Terror, and the laundry list of economic programs, all Kerry could do was make tasteless personal attacks on Bush and Cheney, framed by once more bragging about his Vietnam War record.

It's quite possible that it's too late for Kerry to straighten out his campaign enough to do any good, but here's what he has to do:

He must immediately repudiate his 1971 remarks that American soldiers committed atrocities and war crimes on a day to day basis in Vietnam, with the full awareness of officers at all levels of command. It's not enough just to apologize for them; he has to state dramatically that his remarks were untrue. If Kerry were elected President without repudiating those remarks, then he'd have to do it anyway as President, because the War on Terror cannot be led by a President who believes that America committed the same kinds of atrocities in Vietnam that Islamic terrorists are committing today. It may be too late now, but the sooner he repudiates his remarks, the better it will be for him.
Unfortunately he won't repudiate them, because he literally can't, because his mind is still wrapped around the 1960s and 70s. In those days, describing "Amerika" as a capitalist monster was appropriate because America was in a generational awakening period. Today, in a generational crisis period, it's totally inappropriate. Kerry can't seem to understand that.

He must stop making vitriolic attacks against the President. Once again, Kerry is living in the 60s, when demonizing President Nixon, or any authority figure, was well within the spirit of the times. (Those who remember the 60s will remember the catchphrase, "Don't trust anyone over 30.") Kerry can't seem to understand that we're no longer in the 60s, and that the vitriolic attacks on the president and other authority figures that worked so well in his childhood no longer work today.

He must stop counting on antiwar riots and demonstrations to save him. Antiwar riots were great stuff in the 1960s, but he's an adult now, and we're no longer in the 60s.

He must come up with a positive message on the War on Terror and the economy that will distinguish him from Bush and convince Americans that he's a better leader. It will be very difficult to do that at this late date.

A year ago, I strongly criticized Howard Dean for his vitriolic attacks against President Bush. Senator Kerry avoided such attacks for a while, especially in his passionate DNC acceptance speech, but the 1960s is too much a part of both him and Howard Dean, and right now it doesn't look like he has the sense to break free of his own demons. (3-Sept-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Sept-04 George Bush appears to have done well at the Republican Convention thanks to a strong message and a major piece of good luck

Fighting the Last Antiwar

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Sept-04
George Bush appears to have done well at the Republican Convention thanks to a strong message and a major piece of good luck