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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Sept-04
An angry Putin refuses to negotiate with Chechnya

Web Log - September, 2004

An angry Putin refuses to negotiate with Chechnya

Facing mounting citizen anger and EU criticism for not stopping the barbaric terrorist slaughter in Beslan, Russian President Vladimir Putin refused to negotiate with Chechen rebels in a special press conference for foreign journalists on Monday.

"Why don't you meet Osama bin Laden, invite him to Brussels or to the White House and engage in talks, ask him what he wants and give it to him so he leaves you in peace? Why don't you do that?" he said. "You find it possible to set some limitations in your dealings with these bastards, so why should we talk to people who are childkillers? No one has a moral right to tell us to talk to childkillers."

Putin was referring to a row that began on Friday, when Dutch Foreign Minister Bernard Bot, who has just assumed the rotating role of European Union (EU) President, "requested" an explanation for the bloodshed in Beslan, North Ossetia, where a terrorist hostage-taking resulted in the deaths of 350 people, almost half of them children.

The outraged Russian Foreign Ministry responded with a statement that said, "Inappropriate statements by the Dutch minister look odious ... and blasphemous. We expect explanations from the Dutch side."

The EU backed down, saying that Bot's statement had created a "misunderstanding," but there's little doubt that many Europeans are blaming Putin's longstanding refusal to negotiate with Chechnya for the terrorist action.

While European governments have been reacting very cautiously since the Bot row, editorial writers have not always been so circumspect. An editorial in French newspaper Le Monde complains about "schizophrenic" French policy that is willing to oppose America in Iraq, but "closes its eyes to similar Russian threats that result in blood and slaughter."

Indeed, France is somewhat cornered today by forces beyond its control. On the one hand, France has received enormous sympathy from moderate Muslims over the kidnapping of French journalists in Iraq, and cannot afford to criticize the Islamic terrorists in Russia. On the other hand, Russia was France's ally in opposing UN support for America in Iraq, so France can't afford to criticize Russia too much either. As a result, French President Jacques Chirac is reduced to simply sympathizing with Russia over the slaughter.

Criticism of Russia goes even deeper from former Communist controlled states of Eastern Europe, however, especially those which have recently joined the EU. In fact, Bot's statement was apparently urged on him by foreign ministers from Lithuania and Latvia.

America used to be very critical of Russia's policies in Chechnya, but became much more sympathetic after 9/11.

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia and Chechnya

Troubled areas in Caucasus region - including North Ossetia and Chechnya

However, Putin himself is under conflicting pressures in assigning blame for these exceptionally brutal and horrific terrorist acts. He called for revenge in his nationwide television address on Monday, but he blamed "international terrorism" from unnamed countries. His reluctance to blame Chechnya directly comes from what he sees as the real danger: An all-out war in the Caucasus, which has, for centuries, been a historic battleground between Orthodox Christian and Muslim civilizations.

That danger is quite real. Infuriated Ossetians, mostly Christian, are directing their anger at the neighboring province of Ingushetia, mostly Muslim.

In addition, Georgian President Mikheil Saakashvili appears to be ready to ready to declare war to expel Russian troops from South Ossetia, because of the perception that Russia is supporting the South Ossetians' moves towards secession from Georgia. Saakashvili appears to believe that Russia would be unable to defend against such a war, because doing so would risk inflaming the Chechen region still further. Saakashvili appears to believe that he would win such a war with relatively little bloodshed.

Thus, the Caucasus region is becoming increasingly inflamed. This is consistent with the Generational Dynamics prediction that a major war will occur in this region during the next few years with almost 100% certainty. In fact, the Caucasus region is the most dangerous region on earth today, even more dangerous than Palestine, because it's farther into a "generational crisis" period. (7-Sept-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Sept-04 An angry Putin refuses to negotiate with Chechnya

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 7-Sept-04
An angry Putin refuses to negotiate with Chechnya