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The CPI, which measures consumer prices, increased by a tiny 0.1% in August. Economists had expected a 0.2% increase. The "core index," which excludes food and energy items, increased 0.1%.
Earlier this month, the Producer Price Index, which measures wholesale prices, actually fell. Economists had expected an increase.
Both the PPI and the CPI have been lower than economists' expectations for several months, even the Fed seems to worry only about inflation.
The following table shows the values of the PPI and CPI for each month so far in 2004:
Changes from preceding month
2004
Jan. Feb. Mar. Apr. May June July Aug
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
PPI .6 .1 .6 .7 .7 -.3 .1 -.1
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
PPI "Core index" .3 -.1 .3 .1 .4 .2 .1 -.1
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
CPI .5 .3 .5 .2 .6 .3 -.1 .1
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
CPI "Core index" .2 .2 .4 .3 .2 .1 .1 .1
----------------- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ---- ----
A further increase in interest rates will exacerbate the inflationary trend, and yet the Fed is expected to do exactly that on September 21.
As we've previously said, if you
look at long-term trends instead of just a few months, we're actually
in a long-term deflationary period. We actually expect prices to
fall by 30% in the next few years.
(16-Sept-04)
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