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The new phrase replacing "soccer moms" is "security moms," worried about their family's safety from terrorism.
A few days ago, I used the Janet Jackson fine to show how public attitudes are changing on gender issues, that the public is demanding that women become more modest again, and that women are depending on men more than they did ten years ago. In particular, the gender gap is narrowing, and women are expected to vote more like men in the next election, a change that appears to favor Bush over Kerry.
Recent polling has shown that the issue is more complicated. It turns out that it's young mothers, in particular, who are more likely to vote for Bush than they used to. Older women and single women are voting pretty much as before.
This is being called the marriage gap, because the new results are rather startling:
| Percentage of voters favoring each candidate | ||
|---|---|---|
| Bush | Kerry | |
| Men Voters | 54% | 41% |
| Women Voters | 45% | 49% |
| Single Voters | 30% | 65% |
| Married Voters | 57% | 38% |
As you can see, there's still a gender gap, but the marriage gap is much larger.
The marriage gap is being attributed mainly to "soccer moms," who formerly favored the Democrats on issues such as health care, are now turning into "security moms," who are favoring Bush because of his fight in the war on terror.
This is an interesting development from the point of view of Generational Dynamics. As far as I know, the historians who have studied American generational cycles (mainly William Strauss and Neil Howe in their book, Generations) have identified gender-based cycles, but not cycles based on marital status. The "marriage gap" adds some depth to the gender cycle issue.
It's worth pointing out again that it's very hard to beat an
incumbent President during a generational crisis period because
people don't like to change leaders during a crisis. That's why
Franklin Roosevelt was elected to four consecutive terms during the
last crisis period - the 1930s and 1940s.
(28-Sep-04)
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