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For months, analysts have been predicting that oil prices would start falling after Labor Day, but late yesterday evening oil prices passed $50 per barrel in after hours trading.
The details of the threatened Nigerian civil war are not yet entirely clear, but Nigeria has a long history of wars between the Muslims in the North and the Christians in the South.
We've previous discussed the question of why these things always seem to happen in Africa (its geography) in connection with the Darfur genocide, which is still in progress.
Analysts have been predicting that oil prices would fall into the $30-40 range, and Bear Stearns even predicted a fall to $25 per barrel.
Events have continued to conspire to keep international oil prices up. Demand from India and China stays high; the Yukos crisis in Russia continues; Iraq continues to have difficulty exporting oil; and even the Florida hurricane's have had a local effect, at least on American gas prices.
Why can't oil prices fall again into the $30-40 per barrel range? Frankly, I'm surprised as well, but here's my speculation: I believe that the Chinese is more out of control than people are saying, and that China is importing even more oil than the Chinese themselves know. This is an educated guess, of course, but from the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is in a "generational unraveling" period, and the Beijing government really no longer has any real control over most of the economy. We'll see how this plays out.
We'll have more analysis on the civil war in Nigeria, the price of
oil, and the Chinese economy as further facts become known.
(28-Sep-04)
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