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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Oct-04
New Chinese military chief ratchets up talk of war.

Web Log - October, 2004

New Chinese military chief ratchets up talk of war.

When Hu Jintao (age 61) replaced Jiang Zemin (age 78) as Chairman of China's Central Military Commission on Sept. 19, many observers hoped that that relations with Taiwan would thaw.

"[T]here will be a more flexible approach to Taiwan," according to one Taiwanese military analyst, adding that "Hu Jintao is a much more pragmatic person."

However, just the opposite is happening.

Hu has now told the People's Liberation Army to prepare for war.

He did this in response to recent remarks by Taiwanese officials.

First, Taiwan's president, Chen Sui-bian, warned that China is building up an arsenal of missiles pointed at the island, and that 800 of them would be in place by 2006.

Then the Taiwanese prime minister, Yu Shyi-kun, amplified Chen's remarks by calling for the development of an offensive missile system. "You fire 100 missiles at me, I fire 50 at you. You hit Taipei and Kaohsiung. I at least hit Shanghai. If we have such counter-strike capability today, Taiwan is safe."

Why would he ever think that would make Taiwan safe?

Anyway, that infuriated the Chinese, leading to Hu's remarks about preparing for war.

Why would anyone have expected Hu Jintao to be a much more pragmatic person? For some reason, people seem to automatically believe that younger people are more pragmatic and flexible than younger people, despite the fact that it's the angry young men who start most of the wars.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the difference between Hu and his predecessor is very clear.

Jiam Zemin, at age 78, grew up during the genocidal civil war between armies led by Mao Zedong and Chiang Kai-shek that ended in 1949. People who grow up during crisis wars suffer a kind of generational child abuse, and the people in the entire generation grow up to be indecisive, risk-averse leaders -- more flexible and pragmatic in the sense that they're much more willing to compromise to avoid another war.

Hu Jintao, at age 61, grew up after the civil war. People in these post-war generations (like America's Baby Boomers) grow up to be arrogant and risk-seeking, much more likely to risk war.

Thus it's not surprising to see that Hu is preparing for war, while Jiang might have been more circumspect.

On the Taiwanese side of of the straits, President Chen is in the rebellious younger generation in Taiwan's 1990 Wild Lily Rebellion, a student separatist movement that began as a reaction to the 1989 Tiananmen Square crackdown in China.

Chen has promised to amend the Taiwanese constitution by 2008 to make Taiwan more independent. Jiang has already said that this would lead to war, and Hu is obviously following the same policy with even more vigor. (1-Oct-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Oct-04 New Chinese military chief ratchets up talk of war.

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Oct-04
New Chinese military chief ratchets up talk of war.