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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Oct-04
US and world preparing for a deadly "bird flu" pandemic, including forced quarantines and isolation

Web Log - October, 2004

US and world preparing for a deadly "bird flu" pandemic, including forced quarantines and isolation

The UN World Health Organization (WHO) is downplaying the fear of a widespread "bird flu" pandemic, after the flu was apparently transmitted from one person to another in several cases in Thailand. As far as is known, all such human to human transmissions so far have been contained.

The bird flu is a new, deadlier form of influenza. If there is a widespread global pandemic of the new flu strain, then tens or hundreds of millions of deaths are expected.

This is not farfetched. 20 million people died in the Spanish flu epidemic of 1918-1920. Such a worldwide flu epidemic has never occurred since then, but there is absolutely no reason to believe it couldn't, and many medical experts believe that it's overdue. The number of deaths might be much higher, since the earth's population is much greater.

If you want to know how serious the problem is being treated, consider this: 100 million (100,000,000) birds have been culled (killed) this year in Asia as a precaution, as 20 people have died from the bird flu, apparently after they caught it directly from birds.

These figures appeared in a WHO press release issued a month ago calling for studies on bird flu to assess its potential for becoming a global pandemic.

The American government is taking the situation very seriously.

The Dept. of Health and Human Services (HHS) has issued a draft Pandemic Influenza Response and Preparedness Plan.

According to the Executive Summary:

Implementing infection control strategies to decrease the global and community spread of infection, while not changing the overall magnitude of a pandemic, may reduce the number of people infected early in the course of the outbreak, before vaccines are available for prevention. Travel advisories and precautions, screening persons arriving from affected areas, closing schools and restricting public gatherings, and quarantine of exposed persons may be important strategies for reducing transmission. The application of these interventions will be guided by the evolving epidemiologic pattern of the pandemic.

So far it's only a draft plan, so if these things interest you, consider commenting on it at http://www.hhs.gov/nvpo/pandemicplan. (3-Oct-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Oct-04 US and world preparing for a deadly "bird flu" pandemic, including forced quarantines and isolation

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Oct-04
US and world preparing for a deadly "bird flu" pandemic, including forced quarantines and isolation