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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Oct-04
Palestinians and Israelis becoming more violent

Web Log - October, 2004

Palestinians and Israelis becoming more violent

Dozens of Palestinians were killed in a new Israeli offensive, as a new poll of Palestinians shows that they approve of increasing violence against Israel. According to the poll, conducted by Dr. Khalil Shikaki's Palestinian Center for Policy and Survey Research, found that Palestinians overwhelmingly support the following actions by Palestinians:

Firing of rockets into Israeli settlements and into Israel itself
"Liquidation" of collaborators - Palestinians who spy for Israel.

On the Israeli side, Prime Minister Ariel Sharon said Israel should expand its military offensive in the Gaza strip, in order to eliminate the launching of missles into Israel. The current offensive, which has killed over 60 Palestinians in the last five days, is expected to continue for weeks.

According to an Israeli analysis, the Palestinians are becoming increasingly audacious, and the Palestinian government refuses to address the problem.

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

If you start with those facts, and with the adjoining map which shows the Palestine region as a tiny red dot in a huge sea of Muslim countries, then you don't have to be an expert in Generational Dynamics to see that the Palestine region is heading toward all-out war, but the question is: What is the "tipping point"? When does this continuing form of low-level violence spiral out of control into all-out genocidal war, where Israelis and Palestinians try to destroy each other completely?

In my book, I compared the situation in the Palestine region to what happened leading up the extremely violent war in the late 1940s. Fighting between Jews and Arabs began with rock throwing in 1936, became more violent after World War II ended, and turned into a genocidal crisis war in 1948, when the UN partitioned Palestine, creating the state of Israel.

We've seen the same pattern in the last few years. Fighting began in 1989 with the first Intifada, and became more violent in 1999 when the second Intifada began.

Shikaki has been polling ever since the Intifada began in 1999, and each poll sows that the Palestinians are more and more supportive of violence, not only against the Israeli military, but also against Israeli families and children. Similarly, Israel has been willing to tolerate more violence against Palestinians, first against Hamas leaders, and later against residential neighborhoods where missiles and other weapons might be stored.

What will be the trigger for all-out war this time? I've speculated that it will be the departure of Yasser Arafat and what Shikaki has called the Palestinian Authority "old guard." As long as Yasser Arafat's generation is in control, and prevents the "young guard" from taking power, all-out genocidal war is unlikely. (3-Oct-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Oct-04 Palestinians and Israelis becoming more violent

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 3-Oct-04
Palestinians and Israelis becoming more violent