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This election has been closely watched because of Howard's strong support of George Bush's Iraq war policy.
As of Thursday, polls shows Howard with a small margin, but with a large number of undecided voters. Saturday's decisive election results appear to indicate that the undecided voters tended to favor Howard.
The Australian election has been watched as an early indicator of the American election in November, and a possible English election next year. In fact, George Bush, England's Tony Blair, and Australia's John Howard were the three major leaders in launching the Iraq war last year, and Opposition Labor Party leader Mark Latham has been highly critical of Australia's participation in the Iraq war, and indicated that if he won he would pull Australian troops out of Iraq.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this is the expected result. America, England and Australian are all in a "generational crisis" period. During such a period, a nation's citizens tend to reject bitter political battles and unite around a leader that they trust, rather than risk someone new.
We saw this during America's last generational crisis period, when Franklin Roosevelt was elected President for a historic four terms.
Because we're in a generational crisis period, history favors the incumbent. The same reasoning applies to England and Australia, for similar reasons.
However, there is one big difference between Australia and
America: Australia is doing better economically at the current time.
The September jobs report in America was much poorer than expected, George Bush could still be
defeated because of the economy.
(9-Oct-04)
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