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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Oct-04
Kerry's "Terrorists as mere nuisances" remark

Web Log - October, 2004

Kerry's "Terrorists as mere nuisances" remark

Let's assume that Kerry's remarks were merely a slip of the tongue, which they may well have been. What I want to consider here is the question of what impression they make on foreign populations, including foreign terrorists.

Let's begin by quoting in full the two relevant paragraphs from the article " Kerry's Undeclared War" by Matt Bai in Sunday's New York Times Magazine:

This analogy struck me as remarkable, if only because it seemed to throw down a big orange marker between Kerry's philosophy and the president's. Kerry, a former prosecutor, was suggesting that the war, if one could call it that, was, if not winnable, then at least controllable. If mobsters could be chased into the back rooms of seedy clubs, then so, too, could terrorists be sent scurrying for their lives into remote caves where they wouldn't harm us. Bush had continually cast himself as the optimist in the race, asserting that he alone saw the liberating potential of American might, and yet his dark vision of unending war suddenly seemed far less hopeful than Kerry's notion that all of this horror -- planes flying into buildings, anxiety about suicide bombers and chemicals in the subway -- could somehow be made to recede until it was barely in our thoughts.

For our purposes, the second paragraph is even more important than the first, because it focuses not on what Kerry said, but on what Kerry is perceived to have said.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, whatever happens in Iraq or in the coming "clash of civilizations" world war is already decided, based on events and trends that have been occurring for decades. Nothing that happens in the short term now, including the choice of American president, is going to affect what's going on in the Caucasus, in Taiwan, in Pakistan, or in Palestine.

But there appears to be a powerful worldwide dynamic going on, based on the belief or perception, encouraged by both Bush and Kerry, that Bush and Kerry have entirely different world views.

The difference between reality and perception here is truly astonishing. Kerry has never put forth any plan that differs in any way that differs from anything that Bush is doing or planning. From the point of view of reality, there is literally no difference between the two candidates.

But the difference in perception is enormous. There is a "feeling," not only among Kerry's supporters in America, but in those who favor Kerry around the world, that a Kerry presidency would bring enormous change.

What kind of change? As I research events and opinions around the world, I see it appear in various ways. For example, one Japanese commentator says that the Iraqi "Coalition of the willing" is going to dissolve under a Kerry presidency, and even under a continuing Bush presidency, and that therefore a quick withdrawal from Iraq is going to happen early in 2005.

Another example is an Israeli opinion piece that says that Palestinians expect Kerry to be harsher with the Israelis than Bush is, because of statements made by Kerry to that effect in the past.

These examples, including the "nuisance" example, illustrate a larger pattern that seems clear: That many people in the world expect a Kerry victory to mark a major change, and even a Bush victory would result in some changes. Like a person whose giddy belief is that his personal problems would be solved if he quit his job, and then finds that his personal problems are the same when he quits his job, many people in the world seem to have a giddy belief that terrorism will somehow get "better" in 2005.

There's no real reason to believe that much of substance will change. Kerry's policy toward Israel and Palestine is certain to be a continuation of Bush's, as is his policy toward Taiwan and Iraq. These are decades old American policies.

Now, what happens in 2005 when the realization sets in that the giddy dreams of change will not be realized? That's a question we want to explore some more in the next few days. (12-Oct-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Oct-04 Kerry's "Terrorists as mere nuisances" remark

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 12-Oct-04
Kerry's "Terrorists as mere nuisances" remark