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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Oct-04
Al-Sadr's Shi'ite militia fighters turn in their weapons

Web Log - October, 2004

Al-Sadr's Shi'ite militia fighters turn in their weapons

The war in Iraq took a significant turn this week when the Shi'ite militias agreed to disarm, as Moqtada al-Sadr decided to enter the political field in anticipation of January's Iraqi elections.

It was just two months ago that most of the media was talking about an imminent mass anti-American Shi'ite uprising in Iraq, perhaps spiraling out of control to a full-scale civil war.

I wrote at the time that it was a mop-up operation, not a civil war, and Surprise! The mop-up operation seems to be coming to an end.

Indeed, I've been saying for almost two years that a civil war or uprising in Iraq was impossible, even though journalists, pundits and high-priced analysts have been emitting hysterical warnings for almost that long.

And the way I knew that a massive civil war or uprising was impossible is because I've studied history. Only one generation has passed since the genocidal Iran/Iraq crisis war of the 1980s. In my study of Generational Dynamics, I've examined well over 100 events throughout history, and there has never been a new crisis war less than 40 years after the end of the preceding crisis war, and rarely in under 50 years. Based on those figures, I knew and know that a new crisis civil war or uprising in Iraq now is impossible.

Iraq is in a "generational awakening" period, and al-Sadr's move into politics is very typical of awakening periods. During awakening periods, there is always a turbulent political battle between the people in the hero generation that fought during the crisis war and their children, who have no personal memory of the war. The battle between the young Moqueta al-Sadr and the elder Shi'ite Ayatollah Ali al-Sistani is what this political move is all about. And although the military battle may be over, the political opposition to the American forces will continue or grow stronger.

The greater significance of the disarmament is that there's a good chance that it will convince the Sunni insurgents in Fallujah to do the same, since otherwise the Shi'ites will gain a political advantage in the January elections.

This will not sit well with Jordanian terrorist leader Abu Musab al-Zarqawi, whose goal is to destabilize Iraq and trigger a "clash of civilizations" war. Al-Zarqawi is well funded and has plenty of money to throw around in Fallujah, and he undoubtedly has a cadre of loyal followers from Jordan, Palestine and Saudi Arabia who are willing to die for his cause.

But Generational Dynamics tells us he has a problem motivating the local Iraqi population to follow his leadership. The fact that only one generation has passed since the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s has real significance on the ground. Every 40-60 year old mother living in Fallujah today lost a father, a brother, a husband or a son in the Iran/Iraq war, These mothers are telling their Iraqi sons, "Don't listen to al-Zarqawi, just because he has money. He'll just get you killed."

So America has its problems in Iraq, but al-Zarqawi may have worse problems, as shown by the disarmament of al-Sadr's militias. And if we think that al-Zarqawi's worst enemy is the American-led coalition forces, we have to remember that he has an even greater, more formidable enemy: Those 40-50 year old Fallujah mothers who see through al-Zarqawi and who are telling their sons not to have anything to do with him. (13-Oct-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Oct-04 Al-Sadr's Shi'ite militia fighters turn in their weapons

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 13-Oct-04
Al-Sadr's Shi'ite militia fighters turn in their weapons