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Just a few hours after my posting that al-Zarqawi's most formidable enemy may be the 40-50 year old mothers of Fallujah, the Washington Post has published a story that the citizens of Fallujah are turning against the foreign-born Arabs led by Abu Musab al-Zarqawi.
In my posting earlier today, I said that the al-Sadr's agreement to disarm may trigger the people of Fallujah to turn against al-Zarqawi, and that's exactly what appears to be happening.
In fact, we're finally seeing what I predicted over a year ago, when I wrote that terrorist suicide bombings in Iraq may backfire against terrorists.
What's happening in Iraq is completely predictable from Generational Dynamics. The people of Iraq are in a "generational awakening" period, which means they are not in the mood for war.
Generational Dynamics cannot predict the actions of any individual or any small group of individuals, but it can predict the behaviors and actions of large masses of people. Thus, there's no way to predict what Abu Musab al-Zarqawi or his small group of foreign-born Arab jihadists may do, but we can predict with almost 100% certainty that the Iraqi people do not want to be in the middle of this.
The Arabs and the Iraqis are at different times within the generational cycle. Palestine and Jordan are in a "generational crisis" period which means, to put it bluntly, that they're ready, willing and able to go to war, and that they'll pursue any such war with genocidal fury.
But Iraq is in a "generational awakening" period. They had their genocidal fury in the 1980s Iran/Iraq war, and they won't be ready for it again until several decades and three more generations pass.
In the meantime, the war isn't over. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is extremely
wealthy, and extremely resourceful, and he'll pursue the war in any
way he can, just like Osama bin Laden. He'll have millions of Arabs
cheering him on, but the people of Iraq will not have their heart in
it.
(13-Oct-04)
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