Dynamics
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Generational Dynamics |
| Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's | |
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An activist Roman Catholic priest has been jailed for inciting violence in Haiti, where everyone seems to agree that the level of violence is continually increasing.
The priest, Rev. Gerard Jean-Juste, is supporting the return of Jean-Bertrand Aristide from the exile he was forced into last February. The two sides in the intensifying violence are nominally "pro-Aristide" and "anti-Aristide."
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As we pointed out in our analysis of the Haiti situation several months ago, Haiti is suffering from extreme poverty, because of the "Malthus effect" that strikes every nation: The population grows faster than the food supply, forcing more and more people into poverty each day.
There is now only one region of the world which is in a full-scale genocidal crisis war -- the Darfur region of Sudan in Africa. As we predicted, the United Nations has been unable to do anything to stem the genocide, which is expected to get worse as winter approaches. A genocidal crisis is like a force of nature, and once it gathers enough energy it can't be stopped any more than a raging typhoon can be stopped.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, Haiti is also deep into a generational crisis period. If the level of violence continues to increase, then it will spiral out of control into a full scale genocidal crisis war. This could happen tomorrow, next week, next year, or in a couple of years, but it's going to happen before long.
The interesting and every-present contrast is with Iraq, which is not spiraling out of control, despite numerous wishful predictions from journalists, pundits and high-priced analysts for almost two years. As we've repeatedly said, Iraq is in a "generational awakening" period, during which a spiral out of control into a massive civil war or anti-American uprising is impossible.
So we have three different regions:
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