Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Oct-04

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Two online polling web sites show overwhelming worldwide support for Kerry for President.

Two online polling web sites show overwhelming worldwide support for Kerry for President.

But a third site, where you have to pay to cast your vote, favors Bush.

Results of global poll by BBC World Service A global poll conducted by the BBC World Service found that John Kerry was favored by 72% of respondents worldwide, George Bush by 19%, and Ralph Nader by 9%. The adjoining graph shows the results of the BBC poll, broken down by region. A similar poll, from http://www.betavote.com, found an even bigger margin: 88% for Kerry, and 11% for Bush. The web page breaks the results down by country. Those two polls aren't particularly accurate. Anybody in the world can access either of those poll web sites and vote, and so the votes are subject to cheating. But the global poll of ten nations that we described last week is a valid poll, and has similarly lopsided results.

Expectation that George Bush will win - at 9:00 PM ET - according to Intrade.com

On the other hand, Bush is the favorite in another kind of online poll, conducted by Intrade.com. On that web site, a "vote" is actually a monetary bet, and when the election is over, you can win real money if you're right.

Thus, this poll measures something quite difference from the preceding polls. In the preceding polls, you vote for whom you want to be elected; in the Intrade.com poll, you vote for whom you expect to be elected.

As the adjoining graph shows, respondents expected Bush to win by 57% to 43% at the moment when I captured the graph. However, the results are fairly volatile, even during a single day, so check the web site frequently. If you look at the web site after the election is over, it should show a value of either 0% (if Bush loses) or 100% (if Bush wins). (26-Oct-04) Permanent Link
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