	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Oct-04
Violent crime dropped, continuing a trend

Web Log - October, 2004

Violent crime dropped, continuing a trend

Violent crime has been declining since 1994, and reached the lowest level ever recorded in 2003, according to the Department of Justice, Bureau of Justice Statistics.

Violent crime rate per 1,000 persons, 1973-2003

Violent crime rate per 1,000 persons, 1973-2003

The adjoining graphic is a line chart of overall violent crime rate per 1,000 persons 1973-2003. According to the Department of Justice:

Violent crime encompasses rape, sexual assault, robbery, aggravated assault, and simple assault. A period of stability existed between 1973 and 1977. Then, the violent crime rate increased to a peak in 1981 interrupted only by a 1-year decline in 1980. For the following 5 years until 1986, the rate decreased. From 1986 to 1993 the rate of violent crime increased to a level slightly below the 1981 peak. A decline in the violent crime rate began in 1994 and has continued through 2003 to the lowest level ever recorded. Between 1994 and 2003 violent crime rates declined about 55%.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, this reduction in crime rate confirms an important finding of the generational paradigm.

William Strauss and Neil Howe, the historians who studied generational changes in the 1980s and published the results in their book, Generations, found that children who are born during a "generational awakening" period, such as America in the 1960s, have the highest crime rates. The "generational awakening" period occurs one generation past the end of a crisis war (World War II in this case), and Strauss and Howe verified this result for six cycles, all the way back to the 1500s, by studying hundreds of histories and diaries throughout American history.

The kids born in the 1960s have been named "Generation X" by the media, but Strauss and Howe use the term "Nomads" to refer to any generation born during an awakening period like the 1960s. These kids have to grow up during a period of enormous political struggle caused by a "generation gap." (See my discussion of Iraq Today vs 1960s America for more information.) The kids in this generation have very difficult childhoods and grow up statistically more likely to become violent young adults.

By contrast, the kids born in the next generation are called generational "Heroes," because then end up being the soldiers who fight in the next crisis war. Research shows that this generation has a lower crime rate than other generations. (26-Oct-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Oct-04 Violent crime dropped, continuing a trend

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 26-Oct-04
Violent crime dropped, continuing a trend