	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Oct-04
Arafat will not return to Ramallah

Web Log - October, 2004

Arafat will not return to Ramallah

For years, America and Israel have been trying to get rid of Arafat; now they've gotten their wish.

Yasser Arafat in 2000

Yasser Arafat in 2000

Yasser Arafat is "not in control of his mental faculties" because of leukemia, and the "Arafat political era is now over," according to the news this morning.

Since the beginning of the "second Intifada" in 2000, both Israel and America have refused to speak to Arafat officially. Both countries have taken the position that Israel and Palestine could reach agreement on a peace treaty if only Arafat would be willing to abide by his commitments, and stop perpetrating terrorist acts against Israelis. According to this view, it's Arafat's fault that the "Roadmap to Peace" has failed, and that without Arafat we'd be creating a new Palestinian state living in peace side by side with Israel.

That whole view is fundamentally flawed, because it assumes that Arafat was in control of all these decisions.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, it's large masses of people who usually direct the policy of a nation, not the political leaders. From that point of view, the rejection of the "Roadmap" comes from the Palestinian people, not from the Palestinian leaders.

I've always felt that the terrorist acts against Israelis, as horrific as they are, have been quietly supported by Arafat because they represent a compromise position which is short of total war. This concept is speculative, but it makes sense because Arafat, born in 1929, is old enough to have lived through the genocidal wars between the Jews and Arabs in the 1940s, and considers any compromise to be small compared to the horror of a repeat of those wars.

There will now be a power struggle among a younger generation of Palestinian leaders, but these youthful new leaders have no personal memory of the 1940s genocidal wars, and so have no fear of seeing them return. That means that they'll be much more willing to take risks in rhetoric and actions, and much more willing to risk total war.

The thing to watch for in the next few month is how this power struggle evolves. Politically, Arafat's Palestinian Authority will claim control of the Palestinian people. But "on the streets," terrorist groups like Hamas and Hizbullah will attempt to fill the power vacuum left by Arafat's departure.

Generational Dynamics predicts that no political solution is possible for more than the short run. The Palestinian dynamics are coming from the Palestinian people, and are not controlled by any political leader.

Arafat's disappearance does mean one big thing however: Many of the Palestinian people have been willing to exercise restraint, simply out of respect for the elder Arafat, who is considered to be a Palestinian hero. With Arafat gone, that restraint is gone as well. (30-Oct-04) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Oct-04 Arafat will not return to Ramallah

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 30-Oct-04
Arafat will not return to Ramallah