	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Nov-04
Muslim / non-Muslim violence emerges in central China

Web Log - November, 2004

Muslim / non-Muslim violence emerges in central China

A traffic accident spurred rioting and violence, killing possibly dozens of people in Henan, a province in central China, although reports of the exact number are conflicting.

The violence cannot be called "inter-ethnic," since both groups, the minority Hui and the majority Han, are ethnic Chinese. The Han Chinese make up more than 90% of the the country's 1.3 billion people.

The Hui minority consists of ethnic Chinese whose ancestors converted to Islam. Although the Hui and the Han live in the same region, the Hui live in separate communities, attend mosques in those communities, and have separate customs, especially as regards eating pork, which is a common Chinese food, but is forbidden by Islam.

According to the BBC World Service, the Hui minority have been successful in trucking and restaurants, and are wealthier than the Hans, most of whom are poor farmers.

This is a typical description of a "market-dominant minority," a structure that appears frequently around the world and generates enormous fury. (I like to remind people of the Enron scandal in America in 2001; after it occurred, the infuriated American public was calling for all corporate CEOs to be jailed, even those who had nothing to do with scandal.)

So far, this appears to be a classic local rebellion, of a kind that is very common in Chinese history. Prior to the 1800s, all such local rebellions were handled by armed forces troops.

China and adjoining countries (modern names and boundaries), showing the origins of the White Lotus Rebellion and the Taiping Rebellion.

China and adjoining countries (modern names and boundaries), showing the origins of the White Lotus Rebellion and the Taiping Rebellion.

The first rebellion for which this approach failed was the White Lotus Rebellion, which occurred in the same central China region from 1796 to 1805, and proved too large for the regular army to handle.

That was a precursor to the massive Taiping Rebellion of 1851-64, which killed tens of millions of people. It started in southeastern China and killed tens of millions of people - 15% of the entire Chinese population.

The next round of massive bloodletting began in 1934 with Mao Zedong's Long March from the same region where the Taiping rebellion began. The resulting civil war between the Communist Mao and the Nationalist Chiang Kai-shek continued until 1949, with only a brief pause during World War II when the two leaders joined forces to defeat the Japanese invaders.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, these rebellions and civil wars have occurred with clocklike regularity in Chinese history, and we're now approaching the "scheduled" time for the next one. The fact that a mere traffic accident could trigger such massive violence in central China is a sure sign that the necessary generational changes have already occurred.

China has imposed martial law on the region, and has sent thousands of security forces personnel to the region to bring it under control.

It's possible that the Chinese security forces will succeed in restoring control, but Generational Dynamics predicts that there'll be a new massive rebellion (civil war) in China within the next decade.

One possible agent of this rebellion may be the followers of the Falun Gong, a form of meditation that grew out of reaction to the 1989 Tiananmen Square massacre. Indeed, the leaders of the Falun Gong movement have said that they consider themselves to be the spiritual descendants of those who started the Taiping Rebellion. China has outlawed practice of the Falun Gong, using massacres and jailing of practitioners (which is like jailing someone for exercising to Richard Simmons tapes), but has been unsuccessful in doing so.

Today, China is in a "generational unraveling" period, where all the strict societal rules imposed by Mao during the 1950s are unraveling, and there is little social structure to replace them. In particular, China is experiencing an economic bubble similar to Japan in the 1980s and America in the 1990s.

Generational Dynamics predicts that China is very close to chaos, and that there are three possible triggers of this chaos:

A massive new rebellion, possibly triggered by the Falun Gong movement;
A collapse of the Chinese economic bubble, such as happened in Japan in 1990 and in America with the 2000 Nasdaq crash; or
Moves by Taiwan leaders toward independence, which would force China to declare war.

Any one of these triggers could occur at any time -- next week, next month, or two or three years from now.

Generational Dynamics predicts that all three of these will occur in the next decade or so. The Henan rioting and violence going on today is a precursor of much more to come. (1-Nov-04) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Nov-04 Muslim / non-Muslim violence emerges in central China

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Nov-04
Muslim / non-Muslim violence emerges in central China