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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 4-Nov-04

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United Nations: Darfur falling into anarchy

United Nations: Darfur falling into anarchy

The Sudan government is losing control of areas of Darfur, according to Jan Pronk, the U.N. envoy for Darfur.

Darfur - southwest region of Sudan (Source: BBC)

"Darfur may easily enter a state of anarchy -- a total collapse of law and order," he said. "The progress is slow and the regression is alarming."

When the Darfur story first broke, back in June, I predicted that the United Nations would be unable to prevent the genocide from occurring. Since then, weeks and months have gone by, and nothing's happened but meetings, speeches, condemnations, resolutions and hand-wringing.

There are many wars going on in the world right now, but only one of them is a generational crisis war: The war in Darfur and Sudan.

A major finding of Generational Dynamics is that there are two kinds of wars: crisis and non-crisis wars. Non-crisis wars can start any time for political reasons, and can stop at any time for political reasons. Crisis wars happen at roughly 80 year cycles in any society, and they can't be stopped, any more than an earthquake or a raging typhoon can be stopped.

That's why I was able to predict last June that the Darfur genocide would not be stopped until it had run its course. (4-Nov-04) Permanent Link
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