Ivory Coast appears close to major civil war between Muslim and Catholic ethnic groups - 8-Nov-04 - Generational Dynamics

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Nov-04

Ivory Coast appears close to major civil war between Muslim and Catholic ethnic groups

France's Ivory Coast intervention is far more dangerous than America's Iraq intervention, since Ivory Coast is in a generational crisis period, and Iraq is not.

American-led coalition forces today are launching an attack to recapture Fallujah from the Iraqi insurgents. Although this is expected to be a violent battle, it will not spiral out of control into a larger war or a civil war. This is true because Iraq is in a generational awakening period, and as I've discussed on the web site a couple of dozen times, a massive civil war or uprising during an awakening period is impossible, since only a single generation has passed since the country's last crisis war, the Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s.

Ivory Coast

Ivory Coast

France does indeed appear to be getting drawn into a war which is spiraling out of control, after the French destroyed the Ivory Coast government's entire air force in retaliation for killing of nine French peacekeepers. This generated a backlash of anti-French violence by thousands of machete-waving rioters around Abidjan, the nation's capital. French President Jacques Chirac is now sending several hundred more troops to bolster the 4600 French peacekeepers already there.

Africa, with Ivory Coast and Darfur highlighted

Africa, with Ivory Coast and Darfur highlighted

France colonized portions of Western Africa in the late 1800s. When France was defeated by the Nazis in World War II, the region was thrown into turmoil, but remained largely loyal to France, despite Nazi provocations. This was a crisis war for France's colonies, as well as for France.

Côte d'Ivoire (Ivory Coast) became independent of France in 1960, although France continued to retain influence.

Today, the World War II fault lines are being revived in a new civil war between the largely Muslim rebel population in the north and the largely Catholic population in the south.

The civil war began in 2002, but it was brought under control by French and United Nations peacekeepers, and both sides were scheduled begin an extensive disarmament program three weeks ago. But the rebels withdrew from the transitional government ten days ago, leading to low-level violence that's currently escalating.

This is following a familiar pattern of crisis wars throughout history. When World War II ended, all sides were forced to accept painful compromises in order to keep the peace. No war broke out in 1960 because civil wars don't happen in generational awakening periods, one generation after the end of the last crisis war. Instead there was a "bloodless coup," a "velvet revolution," an internal revolution that brings about a peaceful change in government, but doesn't really resolve the underlying problems.

Today, the last generation of people who lived through World War II are disappearing (retiring or dying), and all the compromises are unravelling. Powerful "survival of the fittest" emotions are taking over, and there is little fear of another major genocidal crisis war.

Like many crisis wars throughout history, this one is starting off slowly. The 2002 flare up was brought under control by outside forces, the peacekeepers. But when the peacekeepers tried to impose a "peace plan," requiring disarmament by a scheduled date, both the peace and the peace plan fell apart. (This is similar to what's happening in the Palestine region.)

It's possible that the French will be able to bring the government and rebel forces under control once more, but if it does so, then it will be only temporary. Côte d'Ivoire is headed for a crisis war and, if it comes, it will probably engulf the entire west African region. (I've always assumed that the "clash of civilizations" world war would be triggered in Palestine or in the Caucasus, but there's no reason why it couldn't be triggered here.)

According to one newspaper story yesterday, the "clash was in the classic West African mould, with all the potential for madness and disorder that peacemakers fear." The phrase "madness and disorder" alludes to the Darfur genocide going on today, as well as the Rwanda genocide of 1994. Because of this view, it's worthwhile pointing out that this kind of "madness and disorder" is hardly unique to Africa, and occurs throughout the world at all times in history, for reasons that I've previously described.

Nonetheless, it's true that there are many wars going on in the world today, but there's only one crisis war, the Darfur genocide.

If the Côte d'Ivoire situation continues to spiral out of control, it will be the second one, for the time being. (8-Nov-04) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Nov-04 Ivory Coast appears close to major civil war between Muslim and Catholic ethnic groups

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 8-Nov-04
Ivory Coast appears close to major civil war between Muslim and Catholic ethnic groups