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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Nov-04
Poll: Taiwanese see themselves as a sovereign nation

Web Log - November, 2004

Poll: Taiwanese see themselves as a sovereign nation

The survey results, which are highly significant for China - U.S. relations, indicate that 71% of Taiwanese citizens already consider Taiwan to be "sovereign and independent."

The survey was prompted by a speech last month by President Chen Shui-bian on Taiwan's National Day, with the statement, "the Republic of China is Taiwan, and Taiwan is the Republic of China," a statement with which 63% of the survey respondents agreed.

Chen's remarks prompted a late October rebuke by US Secretary of State Colin Powell, who said that "Taiwan is not independent. It does not enjoy sovereignty as a nation," and that Taiwan and China will eventually reach a "peaceful unification" under the US "one China" policy.

The poll results show what a fantasy Powell's rebuke is. What the survey clearly shows is that it's the people of Taiwan who are demanding that the country move toward independence. Most people believe that politicians determine the overall direction of a country, but it's a basic principle of Generational Dynamics that it's large masses of people who determine a country's directions, and that those directions are driven by generational changes.

So Chen couldn't stop the country from moving in the direction of independence if he wanted to; if he tried, he'd be thrown out of office. But of course Chen doesn't want to stop, as I described in my discussion of Operation Summer Pulse 04, and Taiwan's Wild Election Battle. Chen was actually one of the leaders of Taiwan's 1990 Wild Lily student rebellion that demanded Taiwan independence, following Beijing's Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.

Chen has announced he will amend the Constitution in 2008 to move towards independence, and China has announced that such a move would amount to a declaration of war.

However, Taiwan is only one of China's problems. China is already facing increased violence between its majority Han population and its wealthier Muslim Hui minority, and violence may be spreading.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, China is going through a frantic "unraveling" period. Financially, the country is in an economic bubble, similar to Japan in the 1980s and America in the 1990s, and the bubble will burst at some point, creating a recession and loss of jobs.

On top of that, the structured economy balancing farms and factories that Mao Zedong set up in the 1950s is unraveling, as small farms are merging into giant agricultural units, leaving peasants in poverty. In response, young rural peasants are flocking to the factories in the cities, where they receive the relatively high wages of the bubble economy. In fact, China has 114 million migrant workers, the largest migration in human history.

China is teetering on the brink in many ways. An internal rebellion, possibly led by Muslim/non-Muslim violence or by followers of the Falun Gong, or a move by Taiwan for independence, could tip China over. Indeed, if an American recession occurs next year, that could burst the Chinese economic bubble, and create chaos.

The new Taiwanese survey shows that generational changes are causing China and Taiwan to hurtle towards a confrontation; other generational changes are making an internal rebellion and an economic failure increasingly likely as well. All we ordinary people here in America can do is watch it happen and hope that there won't be too much fallout. (9-Nov-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Nov-04 Poll: Taiwanese see themselves as a sovereign nation

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 9-Nov-04
Poll: Taiwanese see themselves as a sovereign nation