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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Nov-04
Iraq: Fallujah resistance light so far

Web Log - November, 2004

Iraq: Fallujah resistance light so far

As has happened repeatedly - in the war itself, and in Moqtada al-Sadr's insurgency - resistance is quickly collapsing in Fallujah, at least so far. American-led coalition forces have had a "stunningly swift" advance, and have taken control of 70% of Fallujah.

The reason was revealed in a BBC World Service interview on Tuesday of an Iraqi journalist from Fallujah, someone who was evidently sympathetic to the insurgents.

When the journalist was asked what the insurgents hoped to accomplish, he said (paraphrasing), "There's a difference between the Iraqi insurgents and the insurgents from other countries. The Iraqis just want to end the American occupation. Those from other countries are Jihadists wanting to defeat the Americans and are willing to die fighting the Americans."

This contrast is consistent with what we've been saying for many months on this web site. Iraq itself is in a "generational awakening" period, since just one generation has passed since the genocidal Iran/Iraq war of the 1980s. That means that the Iraqis themselves simply do not want a war, and are experiencing a political battle between older and younger generations.

We've repeatedly had fun pointing out that a civil war or anti-American uprising from the Iraqis was IMPOSSIBLE, even though journalists, pundits and high-priced analysts have repeatedly warned of that possibility. We've even taking the liberty of mocking journalists who make such repeated warnings, evidently out of wishful thinking. This was particularly appearent during the brief insurgency of young Shi'ite cleric Moqtada al-Sadr, which collapsed shortly after it started, as we predicted.

We've also noted that Fallujans are getting angry with insurgents. and that foreign-born Abu Musab al-Zarqawi's most formidable enemy may be the 40-50 year old mothers of Fallujah, who have already lost husbands, fathers and brothers in war, and see no point in losing their sons as well.

By contrast, the foreign-born insurgents, including al-Zarqawi himself, are from Lebanon and Palestine, which is in a "generational crisis" period. That's why they're "willing to die" fighting the Americans, and why the Palestine region is so much more dangerous than Iraq itself ever could be.

That's not to say that the recapture of Fallujah is a cakewalk. Abu Musab al-Zarqawi is very dedicated and resourceful and has enormous sums of money at his disposal. But he's trying to stir up a population that simply doesn't want to be stirred up. (10-Nov-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Nov-04 Iraq: Fallujah resistance light so far

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 10-Nov-04
Iraq: Fallujah resistance light so far