	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

\| HOME \| WEB LOG \| COUNTRY WIKI \| COMMENT \| FORUM \| DOWNLOADS \| ABOUT \|

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Nov-04
Dutch vote murdered anti-Islamic polemicist as "Greatest Dutchman of all time."

Web Log - November, 2004

Dutch vote murdered anti-Islamic polemicist as "Greatest Dutchman of all time."

Alarmed politicians, led by Queen Beatrix, are considering repeal of freedom of speech by reviving a 1932 law that forbids dangerous speech.

As we described recently, Holland almost seems to be melting down, following the November 2 murder of filmmaker Theo van Gogh by a Muslim extremist. Since then, arson attacks have burned over a dozen mosques and Muslim schools, and the new law is meant to curb incitement of such attacks.

GREATEST DUTCHMEN 1 - Pim Fortuyn - politician
2 - William of Orange - royalty
3 - William Drees - politician
4 - Antony van Leeuwenhoek - scientist
5 - Erasmus - humanist
6 - Johan Cruyff - footballer
7 - Michael de Ruyter - admiral
8 - Anne Frank - diarist
9 - Rembrandt van Rijn - artist
10 - Vincent van Gogh - artist
Source: BBC

The man voted the "Greatest Dutchman of all time" is Pim Fortuyn, the harshly anti-immigrant politician who was becoming increasingly popular two years ago, until his murder shocked the nation just before the elections. Fortuyn's murderer was an animal rights activist.

Fortuyn's political organization split up after his murder, but since the assassination of van Gogh, one of Fortuyn's political heirs, Geert Wilders, has been gaining political power with anti-Islamic and anti-immigration rhetoric.

The new dangerous speech law, if passed, would be used against Wilders' rhetoric, and also against inflammatory rhetoric of Islamic clerics in mosques.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's amazing about the Netherlands situation is the evident rapidity with which the country seems to be melting down.

First, notice that these rapid changes in Dutch attitudes are coming from the people, not from the the politicians. This is an important principle of Generational Dynamics, and I've emphasized many times on this web site with respect to American politics -- American adoption of the Patriot Act, American's naming "moral values" as the most important issue of the recent election -- George Bush had nothing to do with these things, and these would have been the same if Al Gore had been President these last four years.

Second, notice the complete irrationality of the Dutch public naming Fortuyn as the greatest Dutchman of all time, since he was clearly just a minor politician whose greatest claim to fame was being assassinated. I commented frequently during the American election campaign, and especially after the debates, how completely irrational the campaign was, especially since there was almost no discernable difference between the policies of the two candidates, except in the fantasies of partisans.

Third, this is the kind of rapid movement of opinion that can lead to revolution. I'm not saying that will happen in Holland, but I'm making the point that some event just like this can in fact trigger a revolution. There was nothing particularly rational about the mobs' storming the Bastille in 1789 to launch the French Revolution, and there was certainly nothing rational about the Reign of Terror that followed, but it can happen, does happen, and has happened in every nation throughout history. Another example is the Rwanda genocide of 1994: A plane crash triggered a massive attack by Hutus on Tutsis, killing them, raping them, and hacking their bodies apart, with almost a million casualties. These events are like sex acts that have to be consummated every 80 years or so.

We're in a unique time in history, when all the nations who fought in World War II are now rapidly making generational changes, all at the same time. In each nation, all the people who have personal memories of the genocidal horrors of WW II are all disappearing (retiring or dying), all at once, and history tells us that that's when the next world war is likely to begin.

There are several "pressure cooker" regions of the world, all of them entering or well into a "generational crisis" period. These include Western Europe, Israel/Palestine, India / Pakistan / Kashmir, Russia / the Caucasus, China/Taiwan, and North/South Korea. We'll see periods of rapidly changing public opinions in each of these regions, just as we've seen them in America, and now Holland. Sooner or later, one of them will trigger a revolution or a genocide, and then the "clash of civilizations" world war will not be far off. (17-Nov-04) Permanent Link
Receive daily World View columns by e-mail
Donate to Generational Dynamics via PayPal

Web Log Pages

Current Web Log

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Nov-04 Dutch vote murdered anti-Islamic polemicist as "Greatest Dutchman of all time."

Web Log Pages

Generational Dynamics Web Log for 17-Nov-04
Dutch vote murdered anti-Islamic polemicist as "Greatest Dutchman of all time."