	Generational Dynamics
	Forecasting America's Destiny ... and the World's

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Nov-04
Hundreds of thousands of people in Kiev street protest against rigged Ukraine presidential election

Web Log - November, 2004

Hundreds of thousands of people in Kiev street protest against rigged Ukraine presidential election

A growing international confrontation is pitting America and Europe against Russia, over charges of massive electoral fraud in a close election that appears to have been won by the candidate favored by Russian President Vladimir Putin.

Ukraine's opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko addresses supporters during a rally in Kiev <font size=-2>(Source: Reuters)</font>

Ukraine's opposition presidential candidate Viktor Yushchenko addresses supporters during a rally in Kiev (Source: Reuters)

At first, exit polls showed that the "rebel" candidate, Viktor Yushchenko, would win, but actual vote counts gave the win to the Russian-backed "establishment" candidate Viktor Yanukovych. (Yes, both candidates' first names are Viktor, and their last names begin with 'Y'. Sorry.)

After the results were announced, Yushchenko asked his supporters to hold street protests to pressure the government, and as many as half a million complied on Monday. Both America and the EU are refusing to recognize the results until an investigation has been completed.

Ukraine

Ukraine

Ukraine is located just above the Black Sea, and has been a theatre for wars between Europe and Russia.

Ukraine became an independent nation in 1918, just after the Russian Revolution. The independence was brief, as Ukraine was forcibly incorporated into Soviet Russia by 1921. The country was subject to repeated atrocities, mass executions and deportations, throughout the 1920s and 1930s, the worst being Stalin's man-made genocidal famine that killed millions of peasants in 1932.

One of the principles of Generational Dynamics is that nobody ever remembers the atrocities they commit on others, but no one ever forgets the atrocities that others commit on them. So one can be certain that Stalin's atrocities are playing a part today.

The "rebel" Viktor Yushchenko represents the Ukranian-speaking 75% majority ethnic Ukranians living mostly in rural areas, especially in the west. Yushchenko would like to move Ukraine closer to Europe.

The "establishment" Viktor Yanukovych represents the Russian-speaking 25% minority ethnic Russians living mostly in large cities, especially in the east. Yanukovych has been heavily and openly supported by Putin, and would like to move Ukraine closer to Russia.

Now, you don't have to be a rocket scientist to see the problem here. Ukraine regained its indpendence with the Soviet breakup in 1991, and a lot of Ukrainians must feel in their gut that Putin would like to take over Ukraine again, the way Stalin did in 1921.

Generational Dynamics predicts that the atrocities committed by Stalin will be revisited in the form of a major new conflict, possibly a major civil war. When this will happen cannot be predicted, of course, but the current scandal is opening up this fault line wound today. (23-Nov-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Nov-04 Hundreds of thousands of people in Kiev street protest against rigged Ukraine presidential election

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 23-Nov-04
Hundreds of thousands of people in Kiev street protest against rigged Ukraine presidential election