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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Nov-04
East Ukraine threatens secession, splitting the country in two

Web Log - November, 2004

East Ukraine threatens secession, splitting the country in two

Government forces threatened "disaster," but it may have been just a political ploy as the Ukrainian officials supporting pro-Russian Viktor Yanukovich called for a referendum to split East Ukraine off as a separate country.

East/West Ukraine split in Presidential vote. <font size=-2>(Source: BBC)</font>

East/West Ukraine split in Presidential vote. (Source: BBC)

Presumably, the proposal would be to split the country along the line that separates the mostly pro-Yanukovich provinces (see adjoining map) from the mostly pro-Yushchenko provinces.

However, even Viktor Yanukovich appears to oppose such a solution. He said: "Today we are on the brink of catastrophe. There is one step to the edge. Do not take any radical steps. When the first drop of blood is spilled, we will not be able to stop it."

Yanukovich supporters have been extremely frustrated by the crowds supporting the opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko, and indeed there were still hundreds of thousands of pro-Yushchenko supporters out in Kiev on Sunday. The call for East Ukrainian autonomy may simply be a political ploy by the other side to gain some traction.

But the East Ukrainians are becoming just as passionate and infuriated as the West Ukrainians are, and so the autonomy proposal may gather momentum. If it does, then it may lead to violence and the civil war that everyone fears.

The Ukrainian Supreme Court will be meeting later today. It will be their job to thread the needle through the conflicting desires and claims of the opposing sides, in an effort to find a solution that everyone will live with. In that sense, their job won't be dissimilar to the job of the U.S. Supreme Court in 2000, when America was faced with a potential political battle that might have deprived the country of a President for months. In the end, the Supreme Court sees itself as the last resort in keeping the country together.

But as we described yesterday, Ukraine itself may not be the master of its own fate. Russian President Vladimir Putin cannot afford a hostile Ukrainian neighbor, rich in resources and providing an overland route to the Black Sea. Putin will not accept any solution that doesn't give him what he needs.

From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, the violent atrocities of the 1920s and 1930s occurred across a fault line between ethnic Ukrainians, mostly in Western Ukraine, and ethnic Russians, mostly in Eastern Ukraine. That fault line that is now being reopened. Generational Dynamics predicts that a new war will be fought across that fault line in the next few years, no matter who is finally selected to be President. (29-Nov-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Nov-04 East Ukraine threatens secession, splitting the country in two

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 29-Nov-04
East Ukraine threatens secession, splitting the country in two