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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 1-Dec-04

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Ukraine drifts further from Moscow as Parliament rejects Yanukovych

Ukraine drifts further from Moscow as Parliament rejects Yanukovych

Everything depends on Putin's reaction now, as momentum appears to be gathering for a political victory by opposition candidate Viktor Yushchenko,

Ukrainian opposition leader Viktor Yushchenko (left) sings the national song during a rally held in Kiev. (Source:Xinhua/AFP Photo)

With large crowds in Kiev continuing to support Yushchenko, the Ukraine Parliament has passed a no-confidence vote in the Russian-supported Yanukovych government, in a close vote supported by 229 of the 450 members of Parliament.

There are still numerous legal options to be played out: the Supreme Court has yet to rule; there are calls for an immediate rerun of the election, which the rebel Yushchenko would almost certainly win; there are calls for a brand new election in three months, which would give Yushchenko's supporters a chance to cool down.

Yushchenko and his supporters will oppose a brand new election or any other form of delay, and will continue to insist that he immediately be declared the winner of the recent allegedly fraudulent Presidential election or, at worst, an immediate rerun of that election.

Supporters of Ukrainian Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovich at a rally. (Source:Xinhua)

Prime Minister Viktor Yanukovych, who was declared the narrow winner of the Presidential election, appears to be playing the part of a pawn of Russian President Vladimir Putin. As we wrote last weekend, Putin's history suggests that he will "do whatever is necessary" to make sure that Ukraine does not slip from his grasp, and that would almost certainly happen if Yushchenko is declared the winner.

So far, there's no sign of violence in Ukraine. Even on the streets, the supporters on both sides have been cordial with each other.

But more and more, this is looking like a confrontation between Yushchenko and Putin. We will have to see if either of them backs down, or what will happen if neither does. (1-Dec-04) Permanent Link
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