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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Dec-04
Marwan Barghouti shocks Palestinians and the West by running for President

Web Log - December, 2004

Marwan Barghouti shocks Palestinians and the West by running for President

What if the jailed Palestinian terrorist wins the election on January 9?

Marwan Barghouti was a leader of the Palestinian uprising that began in September 2000. The Israelis arrested him in April 2002 and charged with the killing of 26 people and belonging to a terrorist organisation. If he wins the election, he'll have to govern from jail.

Western politicians, pundits and high-priced analysts, including the Israelis, Americans and Europeans, have been saying for years that the only reason that the Israelis and Palestinians could have peace is because of Yasser Arafat, and that peace would break out once he was gone. The reason they believed this is because they believed that Arafat's policies came from Arafat rather than from the people he was representing. In other words, even though Arafat has been a survivor and has led the politicians for decades, these Westerners assumed that the Palestinians were so dumb that they let him lead him in a direction they didn't want to go.

The Presidential candidate most favored by the West (though not be many Palestinians) is Mahmoud Abbas, 69, part of the same "old guard" generation that Arafat was in. But Arafat had the people's respect as being Father of the Palestinians. Abbas has no such respect.

as I wrote when Arafat died, Arafat lived through the vicious genocidal wars between Jews and Palestinians in the 1940s, and considers an occasional terrorist act to be a small price to pay to avoid having any war like that again. Abbas is in the same generation.

But 49 year old Barghouti is in the "young guard" generation that has no memory of that war, and has no fear of brinksmanship that might lead to a similar war.

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

Mideast, showing Israel/Palestine, Muslim countries, and Orthodox Christian countries

Many Palestinians in Barghouti's generation and younger generations feel exactly the same way. Like radical Muslims in other countries, younger generation Palestinians deeply resent having Israel in their midst, and will not rest until the small red dot hear the middle of the adjoining map is wiped out.

Politicians in Israel, Europe and Washington breathed a sigh of relief last week, when Barghouti announced that he would not run for President against Abbas.

And that's why those same politicians, and even the Palestinian politicians, are suddenly so alarmed, now that Barghouti has evidently changed his mind. They've had this dream of instant peace when Arafat was gone, and suddenly they realize that their dream might well be a fantasy. Guess what? Arafat was just doing what the Palestinian people wanted him to do.

There's a possibility that Barghouti's candidacy is still a ploy of some kind to gain leverage against the Palestinian Authority. But in the end, Barghouti isn't the point. The point is that the "young guard" generation of Palestinian leaders are impatient that their hated Israeli enemy still lives in their midst, and are will to cross lines that Arafat would not crossed.

As I've been saying since 2002, Generational Dynamics predicts that there's going to be a major regional Mideast war between Arabs and Jews in the next few years with near 100% probability. The war will engulf the entire region, and draw in America. The Jews and Palestinians will try again, as they did in the 1940s, to exterminate each other, and the continued existence of Israel is not guaranteed. (2-Dec-04) Permanent Link
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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Dec-04 Marwan Barghouti shocks Palestinians and the West by running for President

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Generational Dynamics Web Log for 2-Dec-04
Marwan Barghouti shocks Palestinians and the West by running for President