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"Moderate" President Mohammad Khatami blamed the hard-line Muslim clerics for his failure to keep his promises to implement democratic reforms when he was elected in 1997 and re-elected in 2001.
Instead, his term of office, which ends in 2005, has been marked with harsh intolerance. Newspapers have been closed, dissident students have been jailed, and electoral reforms have been blocked.
From the point of view of Generational Dynamics, what's interesting about all this is that Iran is in a generational awakening period, just like Iraq (see next item below). So we're seeing exactly the same kind of political turmoil in Iran that we see in Iraq, and that we saw in America in the 1960s.
This is always a generational conflict, pitting the younger generation of college against their parents, the survivors of the last crisis war (in this case, the Iran/Iraq war). The hard-line imams seem unreasonable to us, but from their point of view, their hard-line actions have no purpose other than to prevent another destructive, genocidal war like the Iran/Iraq war.
Political conflict in awakening periods often leads to a politically explosive climax which decides which side is the winner. In the American awakening, the kids "won" when Richard Nixon resigned. In China awakening period of the 1980s, the older generation "won" with the Tiananmen Square massacre in 1989.
The political crisis, however it ends, does not substantially change
the country's direction. This is a relevant issue, because I've heard
a number of pundits suggest that we fund the students to overthrow the
imams and install a pro-American government. Not going to happen.
There will be a political climax at one point, but at this point we
can only guess how it will turn out.
(8-Dec-04)
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